RWPERU34's Secret Hobby Sauce, 2021 Final Edition

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Maybe the pop count has to do with it?

I don't think that's it. My speculation is it was peak of market before season and tons of non baseball and baseball speculators entered. Me being a Soto collector entering the market last year just had very unfortunate timing.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by oddstuff

I believe you are comparing 1st Bowman Chrome auto prices between November 2020 to current right? True what LVDan said about Jan-Apr this year where prices went red hot and then began a steady downward spiral with possibly the exception of Ohtani/Guerrero. Do you have older data going back to 2017/2018 when the 1st BCA of the current most sought after players first came out (Soto/Tatis/Guerrero '16, Acuna '17 and Ohtani '18)?

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ht=price+index

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ht=price+index

I don't do release pricing, but the typical trend is roughly;

200-Houdini Auction
150-Opening Week
100-Settle, a month or two after release

When I drop and add players in Novemeber, I'll add 2020 Chrome (nobody), 2020 Draft (lots of guys) and 2021 Bowman. I won't add 2021 Chrome because it's still new and I obviously won't add anybody from 2021 Draft because it doesn't exist yet.

[bubbs11]

can i get a rundown of kyle schwarber

[soicanbefree]

I'm still confused at your sauce ranking system.

Is it meant to be forward looking or backward looking?

Is it mean to predict performance or card pricing?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

Soto prices are still down from his peak coming in. Amazing given the year he had what expectations were.

He finished #19 in the Secret Sauce. All those walks don't help him with the hobby. His projection coming in was #1.

I agree he was too high coming in. The interesting thing is Soto, Acuna, and Tatis are all between $2350 and $2400 as of my last update. I think that's a better approximation of their overall talent than when Soto was coming off of a year where he hit .342.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by no10pin

I'll just go ahead and ask.

What exactly does your Top 10 12 represent? You just said the guy in 10th place has seen his prices drop over the past six months, so how did he make the top 10?

The average player is down 25% in that time. I think flat year over year is a bigger miss. That said his price coming in was out of line with his projection...possibly more so than anybody. We saw this a few years ago with Gleyber. His prices were super high, then he came out and bopped 38 HR and his prices went....nowhere.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

I'm still confused at your sauce ranking system.

Is it meant to be forward looking or backward looking?

Is it mean to predict performance or card pricing?

It was designed to translate a player's projected performance into a price...so forward looking. For projections I use Steamer with adjusted playing time.

I use the same formula to look back to see how well it ended up predicting prices based on actual performance, which is what I'm doing here.

[shortstopguy12]

I’m glad I didn’t buy in April then… Here’s hoping he gets back to April prices, as I’m buying now.

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Bo is basically where he was last Novemeber, well below where he was in April.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by bubbs11

can i get a rundown of kyle schwarber

Schwarber came it at #57. He only had 399 PA which holds him back.

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

I'm still confused at your sauce ranking system.

Is it meant to be forward looking or backward looking?

Is it mean to predict performance or card pricing?

Haha! Yeah, let's get to the point. Who do we buy!!????

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

Haha! Yeah, let's get to the point. Who do we buy!!????

I have this list....

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The average player is down 25% in that time. I think flat year over year is a bigger miss. That said his price coming in was out of line with his projection...possibly more so than anybody. We saw this a few years ago with Gleyber. His prices were super high, then he came out and bopped 38 HR and his prices went....nowhere.

OK, but then you said that one of the biggest gainers is 77th on your list, so I'm not seeing a correlation between the order of your list and any kind of price movement. Which is why it's a secret I guess...

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by no10pin

OK, but then you said that one of the biggest gainers is 77th on your list, so I'm not seeing a correlation between the order of your list and any kind of price movement. Which is why it's a secret I guess...

Getting traded from the Rangers to the Yankees is going to give a big boost in price. The three main components of a card price are on field performance, age, and team.

[cardsin47]

Thanks OP —- nice job!


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[FT35]

Sometimes I think “hobby good” comes down to one simple formula…a heavily-hyped prospect who immediately upon his call-up delivers MLB results that justify the hype, with minimal intervals of averageness between sustained periods of greatness as time goes on.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by FT35

Sometimes I think “hobby good” comes down to one simple formula…a heavily-hyped prospect who immediately upon his call-up delivers MLB results that justify the hype, with minimal intervals of averageness between sustained periods of greatness as time goes on.

Nailed it! It’s really that simple.


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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by FT35

Sometimes I think “hobby good” comes down to one simple formula…a heavily-hyped prospect who immediately upon his call-up delivers MLB results that justify the hype, with minimal intervals of averageness between sustained periods of greatness as time goes on.

^ Yup ^

I would also add “marketability” to what you said, as well as the ability to avoid scandals.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

^ Yup ^

I would also add “marketability” to what you said, as well as the ability to avoid scandals.

True, and this is an extremely important addition.

This is the reason why stat heads are dumbfounded that certain players with similar on field performance will vastly outperform other players from a hobby standpoint.

Ignore popularity/marketability at your own peril. It matters.


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by FT35

Sometimes I think “hobby good” comes down to one simple formula…a heavily-hyped prospect who immediately upon his call-up delivers MLB results that justify the hype, with minimal intervals of averageness between sustained periods of greatness as time goes on.

If your definition of hobby good is Trout, Soto, Acuna, and Tatis, then yes. Heck, this year alone Vlad and Ohtani push back on this theory. I don't know if you consider Devers hobby good (I Do) but his prices doubled this year, out performing Trout, Soto, Acuna, and Tatis. He's not close in total price (roughly 10%), but that's nothing a couple of MVPs can't handle.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

True, and this is an extremely important addition.

This is the reason why stat heads are dumbfounded that certain players with similar on field performance will vastly outperform other players from a hobby standpoint.

Ignore popularity/marketability at your own peril. It matters.


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The main factor is age...or time, if you prefer.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The main factor is age...or time, if you prefer.

No arguments here. FT35 alluded to this without stating it explicitly. If heavily hyped prospects are delivering immediately, their trajectory looks promising and everyone pounces before they get priced out.

2018 and 2019 are particularly special because the hyped youngsters are actually delivering. Wander seems to be the next big entry, what he’s doing at his age is wild.

Out of 2020 I like LouBob even though age is working against him. He didn’t get the head start but he definitely seems to be living up to the hype. It will be interesting to see how the hobby responds if he mashes in the postseason.


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[FT35]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

If your definition of hobby good is Trout, Soto, Acuna, and Tatis, then yes. Heck, this year alone Vlad and Ohtani push back on this theory. I don't know if you consider Devers hobby good (I Do) but his prices doubled this year, out performing Trout, Soto, Acuna, and Tatis. He's not close in total price (roughly 10%), but that's nothing a couple of MVPs can't handle.

“Deliver” can also be the ability to amaze, captivate and/or electrify on a regular basis and over time. Delivering us things we’ve never seen before. It’s not always numbers driven at first. Ohtani did this early. When he finally started to take off—people were ready/not surprised. Same with Vlad. He was not “immediate” but look how his values are still slightly behind the big group who amazed and electrified early. Over time I think he will amaze with his ability to regularly crush—just like his dad. That’s captivating.

Devers? Still baseball good, meaning he puts up great numbers. Numbers are nice but boring. Amazement sells & electrifying sells because it activates something more in us and that’s captivating. Gallo? Long periods of sustained nothing and long periods between giving us memorable “moments.” Remember that time when Gallo???…nope…I don’t. 40 HRs? I’ve seen that before. Long list of HR-only guys, Cris Carter, Khris Davis, Adam Dunn, Gallo…etc.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by FT35

“Deliver” can also be the ability to amaze, captivate and/or electrify on a regular basis and over time. Delivering us things we’ve never seen before. It’s not always numbers driven at first. Ohtani did this early. When he finally started to take off—people were ready/not surprised. Same with Vlad. He was not “immediate” but look how his values are still slightly behind the big group who amazed and electrified early. Over time I think he will amaze with his ability to regularly crush—just like his dad. That’s captivating.

Devers? Still baseball good, meaning he puts up great numbers. Numbers are nice but boring. Amazement sells & electrifying sells because it activates something more in us and that’s captivating. Gallo? Long periods of sustained nothing and long periods between giving us memorable “moments.” Remember that time when Gallo???…nope…I don’t. 40 HRs? I’ve seen that before. Long list of HR-only guys, Cris Carter, Khris Davis, Adam Dunn, Gallo…etc.

Here's another one that defies you: Mookie Betts. He wasn't hobby good until he was. It just took a couple of MVP caliber seasons. Same with Christian Yelich.

Hobby pricing is mostly rational. The reason young studs that perform early get the highest prices is because they are the most likely to become all time greats. So I don't disagree with your premise. I just think differently about how it factors in to pricing. It's not that the hobby is ignoring Rafael Devers...or Joey Gallo for that matter...it's that the guys priced ahead of him are all either younger, better, or both!

[ScooterD]

Wanted to chime in with my perspective.

When I was 10, Reggie had just retired and Schmidt was in his final year. Both 500 HR guys - both no doubt HOFers. McGwire and Canseco were “young” and hot - Will the Thrill, Wally Joyner, Mark Grace, Palmeiro, Jeffries, Jerome Walton, and Griffey had shown promise and were in the line.

You know who we all overlooked - Rickey Henderson. Completely different skill set and older, but doing his thing that he would continue until I was in college.

Part of my perspective in collecting is finding the Henderson among the others and buying early on the cheap. No knock on anyone above, but Rickey outsells most of them today - Griffey being the exception, but not because he (Griffey) was unquestionably a better player.

Just my 2 cents on the sauce - which I think is a solid analysis

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Wanted to chime in with my perspective.

When I was 10, Reggie had just retired and Schmidt was in his final year. Both 500 HR guys - both no doubt HOFers. McGwire and Canseco were “young” and hot - Will the Thrill, Wally Joyner, Mark Grace, Palmeiro, Jeffries, Jerome Walton, and Griffey had shown promise and were in the line.

You know who we all overlooked - Rickey Henderson. Completely different skill set and older, but doing his thing that he would continue until I was in college.

Part of my perspective in collecting is finding the Henderson among the others and buying early on the cheap. No knock on anyone above, but Rickey outsells most of them today - Griffey being the exception, but not because he (Griffey) was unquestionably a better player.

Just my 2 cents on the sauce - which I think is a solid analysis

I'm pretty sure by 1987 the 1980 Rickey RC was one of the more expensive out there. When I pulled one from a wax pack it was my most valuable card and I had all the big RC from the 80s. That had to be 1987 or 1988. I'm pretty sure Reggie and Schmidt were more, but I'll bet they still are...if in similar condition. That's more due to scarcity than talent.

If I look back at his minor league stats there is no way he'd be cheap coming out of the gate today. The only chance would have been if his 1st Chrome Auto were in 1976 Draft. If he's held back for 1977 Bowman or Chrome or more likely 1978 Bowman he's going to be one of the top guys out there. He might have dipped back a little after his debut in 1979, but would still be very expensive. Then he blows up in 1980.

Here's how much his 1978 Bowman Chrome Auto in PSA 9 or BGS 9/10 would have been every Dec 1 in today's market holding it steady;

1978: $150 (double at release)
1979: $200 (double at call up)
1980: $600
1981: $600 (held back by strike)
1982: $2000 (breaks SB record)
1983: $1800
1984: $1500
Dec 5, 1984: $3000(traded to Yankees)
1985: $6000

He hits peak at $6000 in 1985, fades a little when he goes back to Oakland, then gets back to peak when he wins MVP in 1990. He fades a little after that through his decline. Let's say he ends up at $5000. That puts him behind Trout (for now), Pujols, and maybe Ichiro? Ahead of Miggy and every other active player for sure.

Right up until the start of the 1980 season everybody on Blowout would be saying he'll be baseball good but not hobby good and complaining that guy with .274 AVG and 1 career HR is way too expensive at $200. Nobody can seem to figure out why he's more expensive than a Dave Parker or Jim Rice...both former MVP with twice as many ASG appearances.