The Official NBA Regular Season Thread—-21/22 Edition

[jcardstore]

Let's lay out some Curry stats for Chapmans and see if he ignores this one too.

Curry has the 2nd best on/off efficiency differential of his career. That's just the per100 on/off offensive - defensive differential.

He's having far and away the best defensive year of his career and let's not pretend he's surrounded by elite defenders either. Besides Draymond the rest of those guys are average or below average. The Warriors are 8.2 pts per 100 better with Curry on the floor defensively. That's an entire point better than his unan MVP season.

Both his RAPTOR and BPM are the 2nd highest in his entire career (basically at 15-16 levels)

I can keep going but you get my point. Plus even if you think stats are for nerds he's carrying a team full of janitors and rec league MVPs to the best record in the league. Besides Draymond there is not much going on for the Warriors.

Poole is Jordan Clarkson with a greener light, Wiggins is a career disappointment and average at best, Kevon Looney?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I'm not throwing out everything else he is doing and his shooting % is not down. It's the worst he's ever had. WORST EVER. Tell me the last time anyone got a 1st place MVP vote for having the worst shooting season in their career. There's no logic to the "other stuff" argument either; because if you start parsing out advanced metrics, then another guy is having the greatest season of all-time.

Let's be honest here ... the only reason people's brains have Curry in MVP mode right now is because GSW is 18-3 and he's the face of that. His candidacy is all about the team success, and not about Curry's individual success.

You're trying to say Curry is not even a part of the conversation (or shouldn't be) because of a singular stat that's mostly irrelevant in the context of what we're talking about.

He's absolutely in the MVP conversation and having arguably the 2nd best season of his career if you can look past the 1 thing you keep repeating over and over

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by Zedlaw

What do you think the point of all this is. Racking wins is the most important stat. Baseball logic isn’t as strong here.

I agree. I'm suggesting that Curry's MVP status is drawn from the Warriors, not from himself.

And that's not an MVP.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

You're trying to say Curry is not even a part of the conversation (or shouldn't be) because of a singular stat that's mostly irrelevant in the context of what we're talking about.

He's absolutely in the MVP conversation and having arguably the 2nd best season of his career if you can look past the 1 thing you keep repeating over and over

He's absolutely part of the conversation because of the success of GSW. He wouldn't be if GSW were 10-10.

Let's put it this way.

Nikola Jokic won MVP last year with 91/100 first place votes. Most everyone would say he's having a better season this year, than last season. (Statistically).

Steph Curry did not win MVP last year with 5/100 first place votes. Many would say he's having a worse season this year, than last season. (Statistically).

The difference of course is team success right? If DEN were 18-3 and GSW were 10-10, do you think anyone in their right mind would be talking about Curry as MVP? Of course not ... the discussion would be around how his shot isn't falling as well as it used to and how he's getting older / praying the return of Klay will right the ship.

It's a Curry illusion. His value, this season, is drawn from the success of the team; because it has to be. When you compare his numbers vs. previous seasons; it's just not as good, that's all.

[jcardstore]

I'm also really confused how this is his worst shooting season ever.


His TS% 64.5 - better than 18-19, 16-17, 14-15, 13-14

His points per shot attempt 128.1 - better than the 1st 5 years of his career and 16-17.

His EFG% 58.8 - better than the 1st 5 years of his career and the same as 16-17.

So I'm really curious what you're talking about for worst shooting year of his career. Are we just talking about his raw 3pt percentages?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

He's absolutely part of the conversation because of the success of GSW. He wouldn't be if GSW were 10-10.

Let's put it this way.

Nikola Jokic won MVP last year with 91/100 first place votes. Most everyone would say he's having a better season this year, than last season. (Statistically).

Steph Curry did not win MVP last year with 5/100 first place votes. Many would say he's having a worse season this year, than last season. (Statistically).

The difference of course is team success right? If DEN were 18-3 and GSW were 10-10, do you think anyone in their right mind would be talking about Curry as MVP? Of course not ... the discussion would be around how his shot isn't falling as well as it used to and how he's getting older / praying the return of Klay will right the ship.

It's a Curry illusion. His value, this season, is drawn from the success of the team; because it has to be. When you compare his numbers vs. previous seasons; it's just not as good, that's all.

I've already proved that this is wrong, because he is having a statistically significant season in the context of his career if you look past whatever shooting percentages you keep talking about. You keep conveniently dodging this point.

Furthermore, of course his value is drawn from the success of the team because HE IS THE TEAM. He is carrying a team full of average at best players to the best record.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I'm also really confused how this is his worst shooting season ever.


His TS% 64.5 - better than 18-19, 16-17, 14-15, 13-14

His points per shot attempt 128.1 - better than the 1st 5 years of his career and 16-17.

His EFG% 58.8 - better than the 1st 5 years of his career and the same as 16-17.

So I'm really curious what you're talking about for worst shooting year of his career. Are we just talking about his raw 3pt percentages?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

You're taking 2 individual stats that really don't mean that much and extrapolating it out to make some conclusions based on his season overall when it's not only out of context, but just straight up wrong.

You keep coming back to these because it's the only ammo you have.

[jcardstore]

There is more to a players season than raw shooting and raw 3pt percentages. Who knew?

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I've already proved that this is wrong, because he is having a statistically significant season in the context of his career if you look past whatever shooting percentages you keep talking about. You keep conveniently dodging this point.

No. He's not. This season does not stand out vs. some of the others, but I'd love to hear why you believe it does.

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Furthermore, of course his value is drawn from the success of the team because HE IS THE TEAM. He is carrying a team full of average at best players to the best record.

Yes. My point exactly.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I've already proved that this is wrong, because he is having a statistically significant season in the context of his career if you look past whatever shooting percentages you keep talking about. You keep conveniently dodging this point.

No. He's not. This season does not stand out vs. some of the others, but I'd love to hear why you believe it does.

I've already listed a bunch of stuff you just choose to ignore it.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

You're taking 2 individual stats that really don't mean that much and extrapolating it out to make some conclusions based on his season overall when it's not only out of context, but just straight up wrong.

You keep coming back to these because it's the only ammo you have.

You're telling me shooting doesn't matter much?

Somebody go let Fultz and Simmons know this is the break they've been waiting for.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

You're telling me shooting doesn't matter much?

Somebody go let Fultz and Simmons know this is the break they've been waiting for.

Clearly not what I'm saying and you know it.

Still waiting for a rebuttal to all of the stats I've listed in my last like 10 posts.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I'm also really confused how this is his worst shooting season ever.


His TS% 64.5 - better than 18-19, 16-17, 14-15, 13-14

His points per shot attempt 128.1 - better than the 1st 5 years of his career and 16-17.

His EFG% 58.8 - better than the 1st 5 years of his career and the same as 16-17.

So I'm really curious what you're talking about for worst shooting year of his career. Are we just talking about his raw 3pt percentages?

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I've already listed a bunch of stuff you just choose to ignore it.

No. Not ignoring it.

First, his TS% this season is 62.9%. You inflated reality AND it's still not as good as his TS% from last season, when he did not win or come close to winning MVP.

Second, his EFG is 58.7%, again, worse than his 60.6% from last season.

Your argument seems to be. "Yes, Steph Curry is worse all around than last year, but his team is awesome".

I'm agreeing with you.

[indyguy]

Wait, who do you think the MVP is right now? Let's start back with that.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by indyguy

Wait, who do you think the MVP is right now? Let's start back with that.

Not a fair question to ask because of the schedule imbalance. If you're asking me to replicate the first 25% of this season across the entire season from a W-L point of view, and GSW finishes 70-12 (or even 65-17), then it will be Steph.

If however you're asking me to replicate the first 25% of the season across the entire season from a stats point of view and Jokic finishes with a PER of 35 on 60% FG shooting, then it will be Jokic.

If both of those things happen, then it will be amazing to debate. But it's most likely going to be a middle of both of these extremes, in which the player stats of Jokic will stand out vs. the 52-30 record of GSW.

[indyguy]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Not a fair question to ask because of the schedule imbalance. If you're asking me to replicate the first 25% of this season across the entire season from a W-L point of view, and GSW finishes 70-12 (or even 65-17), then it will be Steph.

If however you're asking me to replicate the first 25% of the season across the entire season from a stats point of view and Jokic finishes with a PER of 35 on 60% FG shooting, then it will be Jokic.

If both of those things happen, then it will be amazing to debate. But it's most likely going to be a middle of both of these extremes, in which the player stats of Jokic will stand out vs. the 52-30 record of GSW.

Then how can you say it makes no sense that Curry is in the MVP conversation if you won't even answer the question? It is 100% a fair question to ask after 1/4 of the season!

If it is based on team success then Jokic deserved it last season because Denver was better than Golden State. That Curry even got MVP votes last year is a testament to how bad that team was thought to be and they made the play in game.

That then turns around this year and Curry has the better team success. He is the reason why.

Denver is 9-6 with Jokic playing this season. BTW, he's -11.5% from the FT line this season from last. The worst of his career (sarcasm there, sorry)

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

No. Not ignoring it.

First, his TS% this season is 62.9%. You inflated reality AND it's still not as good as his TS% from last season, when he did not win or come close to winning MVP.

Second, his EFG is 58.7%, again, worse than his 60.6% from last season.

Your argument seems to be. "Yes, Steph Curry is worse all around than last year, but his team is awesome".

I'm agreeing with you.

I trust bball index data quality. Maybe it's not updated since last night yet? Either way, it's still better than 18-19 and the 1st 5 years of his career so what was your point?

He's clearly not having one of the worst season of his career (he's having one of the best). He's absolutely deserving of being mentioned in the MVP conversation at this point

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by indyguy

Then how can you say it makes no sense that Curry is in the MVP conversation if you won't even answer the question? It is 100% a fair question to ask after 1/4 of the season!

If it is based on team success then Jokic deserved it last season because Denver was better than Golden State. That Curry even got MVP votes last year is a testament to how bad that team was thought to be and they made the play in game.

That then turns around this year and Curry has the better team success. He is the reason why.

Denver is 9-6 with Jokic playing this season. BTW, he's -11.5% from the FT line this season from last. The worst of his career (sarcasm there, sorry)

You're mashing two things at once.

For the record and first of all, I believe team performance should have zero to do with MVP. It's an individual award that should be given to the best player.

But, I recognize that team success has a lot to do with who wins NBA MVP. It is what it is and this is why right now, Curry is absolutely in the conversation. His team success is the only reason why tho; because as Jcardstore points out , he's having a worse season (individually) in every way than last season.

Jokic didn't win last year because of team success. He won because he clearly stood out among the stats and there was no clear standout among teams. If GSW stands out this year, Curry wins. If they do not, Curry has no chance.

Jokic has a chance no matter Denver's success because he will stand out.

[tennelson55]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I'm not throwing out everything else he is doing and his shooting % is not down. It's the worst he's ever had. WORST EVER. Tell me the last time anyone got a 1st place MVP vote for having the worst shooting season in their career. There's no logic to the "other stuff" argument either; because if you start parsing out advanced metrics, then another guy is having the greatest season of all-time.

Let's be honest here ... the only reason people's brains have Curry in MVP mode right now is because GSW is 18-3 and he's the face of that. His candidacy is all about the team success, and not about Curry's individual success.

I wonder if the team with the worst record in the league had a MVP while shooting amazing.

Oh wait; the voting matters on who is on top and stays on top for a long time.
The team with the best record usually has a star and they win the MVP. Rinse and repeat.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I trust bball index data quality. Maybe it's not updated since last night yet? Either way, it's still better than 18-19 and the 1st 5 years of his career so what was your point?

He's clearly not having one of the worst season of his career (he's having one of the best). He's absolutely deserving of being mentioned in the MVP conversation at this point

You keep rhetorically asking me what my point is knowing what my point is. If you don't want to accept it, that's cool, but it's silly to pretend like you're confused.

Again, if GSW was 10-10, the decline of Curry would be discussed. Decline from extremely high highs, but decline nevertheless. If you want to argue that he's actually having an awesome season, have at it. Every once in a while, he'll have a 45 point game and lead the highlight reels but in totality, the ball is not going through the hoop like it has in the past.

But like you said, that doesn't matter.

[tennelson55]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

This really needs context.

This guy is shooting 40%+ from three and slightly under 50 FG%. Like what are you getting at?

Give the season some time ffs. This guy is shooting 40%+ from three, his year to year stardom, having won a MVP twice, his team having an incredible start all leads to MVP discussion.

If the (insert team) were 18-4 LeBron, KD, Giannis, Embiid, Joker, Donic, Dame, Tatum, etc. would be leading the MVP race.

Give me a #@#@#@#@ing break. Oh yea; and he's shooting 40% from 3. GD this guy trash.

It goes beyond stats. Teams double, hedge and cover Curry at ALL points during the game. Leave him open and he'll make you pay. To come at people and say "He's having his worst season" when we're 20 games sounds braindead when the team is leading the league in wins.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by tennelson55

It goes beyond stats. Teams double, hedge and cover Curry at ALL points during the game. Leave him open and he'll make you pay. To come at people and say "He's having his worst season" when we're 20 games sounds braindead when the team is leading the league in wins.

Your making a point I am not arguing against. Amazing team success, good for Curry. But poor performance based on his history. Worst yet from a shooting POV.

BTW, it doesn't "go beyond stats". I think what you mean to say is "I don't like the stats, so let's look elsewhere".

[indyguy]

He shot 46% from the field for the month of November and 42.3% from 3s for the month. That is 1% and .9% off his career totals.

Did he shoot poorly coming out of the gate in October? Sure.

[bulljh]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Your making a point I am not arguing against. Amazing team success, good for Curry. But poor performance based on his history. Worst yet from a shooting POV.

BTW, it doesn't "go beyond stats". I think what you mean to say is "I don't like the stats, so let's look elsewhere".

21-22 Curry isn’t the front runner because he isn’t better than Curry of the past. To think, I always thought that an MVP candidate had to compete against other players of the year, not themselves.