✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by GMRide27

So……

Those “Private Signings” card. Worth it?

Save your money and buy a Topps pre-TJ rookie card auto. If you can't afford Bowman or Heritage, than finest is a sleek and more reasonably priced choice. The quality of his auto will never be the same again.

[GMRide27]

TJ???

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by GMRide27

TJ???

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...reconstruction

His autograph got choppy and squiggly after surgery. Following year, they got even worse as he probably got sick of signing. This year, they seem to be slightly improved but a far cry from the early 2018s.

Here's the change. Pre-TJ, post-TJ.


And then it got worse in 2019 and he was clearly not trying very hard. This is one of his better ones

[GMRide27]

Okay cool - this was the one I was looking at from 2018. Seems pretty

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by GMRide27

Okay cool - this was the one I was looking at from 2018. Seems pretty

It looks like if you're patient, you can get a finest auto for a few hundred more. If unlicensed doesn't bother you and it's strictly PC, go for it.

And that one is post-TJ. Lack of curves is where you can tell.

Here's finest. The mystery auto was post-TJ since it was redemption. The rest were pre.

[Trueblue]

Great full season highlight reel if anyone is in need of goosebumps:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe6Y_FAp564

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

That card is siiiiiick, I love it.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Great full season highlight reel if anyone is in need of goosebumps:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe6Y_FAp564

Awesome, thanks for sharing...that game in Detroit was one of the greatest sporting events I've ever experienced in person.

[HunterConnorMom]

Originally Posted by GMRide27

So……

Those “Private Signings” card. Worth it?

if you are looking for on card autos from his time in Japan, these types of cards might be a good option:
https://goldin.co/item/2017-epoch-ho...utographs8vdr3

[Trueblue]

A raw hand on helmet SSP is at over $1,600 with a day to go. A PSA8 and a raw from one month ago also did over $2,000 .I think a leader has emerged from the pack.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

A raw hand on helmet SSP is at over $1,600 with a day to go. A PSA8 and a raw from one month ago also did over $2,000 .I think a leader has emerged from the pack.

This PSA8 "only" went for $1200

https://www.ebay.com/itm/15474654339...p2047675.l2557

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

This PSA8 "only" went for $1200



https://www.ebay.com/itm/15474654339...p2047675.l2557

Ah, my mistake! But yes, my recollection was that this SSP is leading the pack by a few laps out of the three options.

[seanrs1]

Trueblue....for the money (in general I stick to low or moderate end, generally below $300 a card for me) what SP and SSP cards do you like going forward? In general I personally like image variations over # serials.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Trueblue....for the money (in general I stick to low or moderate end, generally below $300 a card for me) what SP and SSP cards do you like going forward? In general I personally like image variations over # serials.

As you can see over the last 3 months, lower-end/non-rare has taken a dive while high-end/rare has stayed relatively stable or even increased in some examples (like the hand on helmet SSP). A few of us actually predicted this nuance (scroll back a handful of pages) and recommended selling low-end/non-rare and consolidating upward. While you missed the boat, I would still not deviate from this strategy. Hype and price increases start from the top-down.

Gun to head, if I had to choose a sub $300 card, I would be buying raw '18 Heritage Low Action RCs. Some will make the weak argument that these are inserts due to it being an "action" SP, but it is clearly a classic Heritage image that is "action" only by categorization. It is also the same image as the Heritage Low ROA that was a huge chase card in spring of '18 (nostalgia factor). At one point PSA 10s were eclipsing $1K before his injury. If Ohtani performs, I see us revisiting that price point with raw prices on the coat tail. PR is ~2,300 range if my recall is correct. It's SP enough to not be over-diluted on the way up.

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

This PSA8 "only" went for $1200

https://www.ebay.com/itm/15474654339...p2047675.l2557

This PSA 8 sold for over $2100.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/20370701034...sAAOSwjVdhlzCt

If I were getting in now, having just looked at the sales and prices, I'd say basically any Ohtani SP for auction is a good buy. PSA 10s of his Warm Up Jersey ($200+) and With Bat ($400+) are just crazy to me. I think those were more expensive two months ago.

If it were me, I'd be going after a PSA 9 Batting for ~$1100. Warm Up Jersey, With Bat, and Hand on Helmet all kind of look like the same card just with varying degrees of difficulty and price. The Batting SSP looks like no other Ohtani SP and is a beautiful shot of his follow through from an elevated position. It's also as rare as Ohtani SP RCs get.

Arthur

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

This PSA 8 sold for over $2100.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/20370701034...sAAOSwjVdhlzCt

If I were getting in now, having just looked at the sales and prices, I'd say basically any Ohtani SP for auction is a good buy. PSA 10s of his Warm Up Jersey ($200+) and With Bat ($400+) are just crazy to me. I think those were more expensive two months ago.

If it were me, I'd be going after a PSA 9 Batting for ~$1100. Warm Up Jersey, With Bat, and Hand on Helmet all kind of look like the same card just with varying degrees of difficulty and price. The Batting SSP looks like no other Ohtani SP and is a beautiful shot of his follow through from an elevated position. It's also as rare as Ohtani SP RCs get.

Arthur

I knew I saw a $2K+ sale there somewhere - thank you.

While I agree that the batting SSP is a beautiful card worth owning, there are other players with multiple SSP flagship rookie cards (Bichette, Robert, etc) that have shown us that the first SSP, in this case Hand on Helmet (HoH), is the most valuable card.

I own the same number of HoH and batting SSPs for the record.

[hammertime]

I know no one asked me but as someone who (mostly) sticks to low(er) end cards a couple of my favorites are the Team Set and New Era cards, if you can get them in PSA 10s I'd stack as many as you can...both are incredibly condition sensitive.

[HunterConnorMom]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Trueblue....for the money (in general I stick to low or moderate end, generally below $300 a card for me) what SP and SSP cards do you like going forward? In general I personally like image variations over # serials.

Here’s one:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/32487018320...wAAOSwqAVhhvlo

[HunterConnorMom]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Trueblue....for the money (in general I stick to low or moderate end, generally below $300 a card for me) what SP and SSP cards do you like going forward? In general I personally like image variations over # serials.

Maybe another one:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/22473383719...gAAOSwGOBhtq2P

[HunterConnorMom]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Trueblue....for the money (in general I stick to low or moderate end, generally below $300 a card for me) what SP and SSP cards do you like going forward? In general I personally like image variations over # serials.

Maybe one more:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/14422847959...IAAOSwqZNhV5vl

[HunterConnorMom]

There’s two cards from national baseball card day. Pitching version is more rare.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/31359403193...0AAOSwZ9tg5LNG

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

As you can see over the last 3 months, lower-end/non-rare has taken a dive while high-end/rare has stayed relatively stable or even increased in some examples (like the hand on helmet SSP). A few of us actually predicted this nuance (scroll back a handful of pages) and recommended selling low-end/non-rare and consolidating upward. While you missed the boat, I would still not deviate from this strategy. Hype and price increases start from the top-down.

Gun to head, if I had to choose a sub $300 card, I would be buying raw '18 Heritage Low Action RCs. Some will make the weak argument that these are inserts due to it being an "action" SP, but it is clearly a classic Heritage image that is "action" only by categorization. It is also the same image as the Heritage Low ROA that was a huge chase card in spring of '18 (nostalgia factor). At one point PSA 10s were eclipsing $1K before his injury. If Ohtani performs, I see us revisiting that price point with raw prices on the coat tail. PR is ~2,300 range if my recall is correct. It's SP enough to not be over-diluted on the way up.

In general I think your takes/advice on Ohtani have been spot on. You have always said that high end is what people should be buying (and I agree that has prevailed so far in prices as base and low end cards have seen a significant drop in the off season). You have also pointed out which cards have pedigree that you think will appreciate the most (due to collector demand) and so far you have been right. If people on this board had collected Ohtani like you they would be pretty happy.

My issue is not money per say...but risk of high end cards. If Ohtani gets permanently injured next preseason and never plays again what happens to his cards...they all plummet. To me it is more fun to take small risks on a larger number of cards (low to mid end raw)...but I am in general a risk adverse person and my buying is my "fun" money. This off season I have been focused on non-base RC SP and SSP's. Have picked up only a few when the price is right, but I keep on buying.


Thanks again for the advice!

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by HunterConnorMom

Maybe another one:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/22473383719...gAAOSwGOBhtq2P

This is a nice card and I wish I had one! My issue with this card is that it is a SP but sells for the price of a SSP (anyone know the print run?).


The other cards you suggested are in my wheelhouse and I own a copy or 2 of each.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

My issue is not money per say...but risk of high end cards. If Ohtani gets permanently injured next preseason and never plays again what happens to his cards...they all plummet. To me it is more fun to take small risks on a larger number of cards (low to mid end raw)...but I am in general a risk adverse person and my buying is my "fun" money. This off season I have been focused on non-base RC SP and SSP's. Have picked up only a few when the price is right, but I keep on buying.


Thanks again for the advice!

True has given great advice and your fears were my fear, which is why I cashed out this year, albeit a little late. I jumped back in as far as I could with the pricing for Sho's cards at the time. I will work my back into a deeper run, but for now, I have been playing in the margins with other players because it feels as though they are better value/less expensive. Part of that is me being jaded because of what I paid the first time around for Sho's cards.

I love that Bowman Chrome with bag, but then again, I love most of his cards.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

In general I think your takes/advice on Ohtani have been spot on. You have always said that high end is what people should be buying (and I agree that has prevailed so far in prices as base and low end cards have seen a significant drop in the off season). You have also pointed out which cards have pedigree that you think will appreciate the most (due to collector demand) and so far you have been right. If people on this board had collected Ohtani like you they would be pretty happy.

My issue is not money per say...but risk of high end cards. If Ohtani gets permanently injured next preseason and never plays again what happens to his cards...they all plummet. To me it is more fun to take small risks on a larger number of cards (low to mid end raw)...but I am in general a risk adverse person and my buying is my "fun" money. This off season I have been focused on non-base RC SP and SSP's. Have picked up only a few when the price is right, but I keep on buying.


Thanks again for the advice!

I mean, what's the difference if you own a dozen $100 cards or one $800 card and a handful of others. Unless you're collecting for pure 100% enjoyment, the total dollar value leaning toward higher end cards is clearly favorable. It's like asking whether you'd rather have a roll of quarters or a ten dollar bill.