NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[The Losing Edge]

I don't know if this is what TS envisioned from the beginning, but it's a daily thing now. I know they said they want more daily engagement and to gamify it. It seems we are approaching that if not fully there. How I see it, basically what they said the Hard court app game would be, is the Moment Ranks Daily play. They are rewarding straight Dapper now, No more cheap packs or moment giveaways. I'm unsure if its available to cash out without washing it first, but i should know by end of week. Everyday there's about 2500-3000k entered. And having finally started paying attention to it, the different play moments of the stars command different prices mainly because of this depending on if they are playing that day. The new /60k moments are actually quite helpful to new users because they, if so inclined, could put more or less the same MR play lineup out there as a whale. Same with the flash challenges. Any new user can speculate on a potential flash challenge bottleneck and be rewarded. Ayton, D white, Haliburton, Oubre are or were all available for $8-12. Any star with a /40k or /60k can be had for less than $15. Yes it is a bit of a grind at first & mistakes will be made, but what hobby doesn't have that. I didn't get into cards until May 2020 and didn't start buying really until fall-winter. How many hard lessons do you think I learned the past year & a half? With TS, its all out there for them. How difficult is it for them to become aware of how you play these games? That to me is what TS should help explain when new people enter the market. Explain how moments move on challenges, explain how supply isn't released all at once, explain odds in pack drops, show them what floor price is and how having a lower serial helps to move in relation to that etc. etc.

Between Moment Ranks play and all these flash challenges you really have to pay attention every night. I enjoy MR play because I was always a fantasy player. I finished 10th & 83rd last week so have $55 coming to me at some point this week. I lucked out on the MGLE's i bought hoping they would be part of the S3 Trae MGLE challenge and it looks like all three (S2 PG handles, S3 CJ & beef stew) will be.

I have a lot of Dapper to play with, a 3200 CS (I still want to be able to get into rares or non base drops), now a nice range of Stars moments instead of just Nugs & Pels, my costs are covered, I'm having fun, and I still like the way they package the highlights into moments. Do you enjoy what it currently is or not is up to you.

Coffee must be working today, didn't expect that to go there.

[ClipsandVols]

Finally finished my first set (WNBA Best of Summer 2021) and boy did that bump the collector score up

[mjohnatgt]

What is the Flash Challenge (2-tier) tonight? I don't see a blog on their site about it.


Checked the discord and they haven't announced in anywhere yet and games start in 1.5 hours.

[ACCDADEAL]

Originally Posted by pyrexswerve

If you can't sell a #1, you have it priced too high. Keep lowering it until it does.
What you also have to note, you pulled the impossible, a #1, but these moments aren't as liquid for non-stars, so you really need to price it accordingly.

What's the moment?

https://nbatopshot.com/moment/Shotca...3-6619d637a9f5

[mjohnatgt]

You just need to wait until Khris Middleton joins the site as a Certified Baller and then you'll likely sell it. Price seems fine for #1 of his first Top Shot moment. You might even get more. Just keep holding for the day Middleton drops 3-large on it.

[ACCDADEAL]

Originally Posted by mjohnatgt

You just need to wait until Khris Middleton joins the site as a Certified Baller and then you'll likely sell it. Price seems fine for #1 of his first Top Shot moment. You might even get more. Just keep holding for the day Middleton drops 3-large on it.

Thanks
Yeah I didn't think the price was unreasonable and maybe a little light.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[mjohnatgt]

They just posted on discord:
Tonight, it's all about which NBA players get buckets �� -- 2 Tiers, 2 Rewards ⤵️

1️⃣ Get Buckets Challenge (Easy): Create a showcase with any Moments of the top 3 Leaders in FGM on games played on December 29, 2021 �� . Those who correctly complete the easy showcase will all receive a guaranteed Series 2 Base Pack within 24 hours of the challenge concluding.

2️⃣ Get Buckets Challenge (Hard): Create a showcase with only Top Shot Debut Moments of the top 5 Leaders in FGM games:TopShotDebut~1:. Those who correctly complete the hard showcase will all receive a guaranteed Series 2 Rare pack within 24 hours of the challenge concluding. Which Rare pack will be a surprise though ��.

�� We are bringing back +/- as a tiebreaker. This will be the second tiebreaker after the team's margin of victory. Most minutes played will remain as the third tiebreaker. More in the blog below.

[The Losing Edge]

This is what I'm talking about, things like this. This information should be known. By that i mean public knowledge. Flash Challenges get posted on discord between 16:00 & 16:30 Central. Have for last X amount I've seen. If you're quick, can find an easy flip to play into it, or be ahead of completing a challenge if that's what you want.
I grabbed a Porzingis Debut (Derozan didn't come to mind first sadly, and really only have time to grab one before they jump) for $66 and flipped for $123. These guys love speculating on this type of stuff. I personally would take an 80% gain and call it a day.

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by The Losing Edge

This is what I'm talking about, things like this. This information should be known. By that i mean public knowledge. Flash Challenges get posted on discord between 16:00 & 16:30 Central. Have for last X amount I've seen. If you're quick, can find an easy flip to play into it, or be ahead of completing a challenge if that's what you want.
I grabbed a Porzingis Debut (Derozan didn't come to mind first sadly, and really only have time to grab one before they jump) for $66 and flipped for $123. These guys love speculating on this type of stuff. I personally would take an 80% gain and call it a day.

Not everyone is stuck on a computer all day or glued to their phones 24/7 or even on discord.

I'm usually driving home from 5-6PM every day and doing work in the AM.

Just because you can capitalize on stuff like this, doesn't mean everyone else can. These are literally deals that can only be had for minutes before it balloons. If you aren't already on TS logged on and set to go, its hard to grab one. Especially with bots ready to go.

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by ACCDADEAL

https://nbatopshot.com/moment/Shotca...3-6619d637a9f5

Livetoken values this at $1276, so if you want a higher chance of it selling try dropping it to $1500 or just let it sit until it sells at the price you have it listed at. But that might be a while because If it didn't sell when the Bucks won a ring this summer, when his hype was its highest due to his performance, I don't know when it will sell.

But that is the reason it hasn't sold yet.

[The Losing Edge]

Originally Posted by pyrexswerve

Not everyone is stuck on a computer all day or glued to their phones 24/7 or even on discord.

I'm usually driving home from 5-6PM every day and doing work in the AM.

Just because you can capitalize on stuff like this, doesn't mean everyone else can. These are literally deals that can only be had for minutes before it balloons. If you aren't already on TS logged on and set to go, its hard to grab one. Especially with bots ready to go.

Point i was making was more that it should be known that this happens. Then I was giving an example of the possibilities if you had the availability at this time. I don't think TS does a very good job letting people know this.

That post and last was trying to show people what has been working for me recently. If you don't like this way or just can't pay that much attention to this I completely understand.

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by The Losing Edge

Point i was making was more that it should be known that this happens. Then I was giving an example of the possibilities if you had the availability at this time. I don't think TS does a very good job letting people know this.

That post and last was trying to show people what has been working for me recently. If you don't like this way or just can't pay that much attention to this I completely understand.

Nah I understand. I was just pointing out its hard to capitalize on opportunities like that unless you are able to get on the platform quick whenever these type of things are announced.

And I agree they definitely need to let people know this more effectively & at the same time. Maybe always release new information on Twitter first. Then post it everywhere else. Sometimes I see it posted on discord first, or the blog etc.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by grade

When TS had S1/1500 for $1 and $9 s2packs available with /1500 /4000 it was obvious that TS had potential to appreciate in value . The risk vs reward was there.

With /60000 the risk vs reward for TS moments is neutral at best. Panini NFT has more upside and potential at this time.

It is not about what is now, it is what can be in the future.

Right now have 500+ TS moments, over 1000 Panini NFT buying singles and 50 unopend packs. 800 Topps cards, Just waiting for Panini to dump PAYPAL.

Topps might be the sleeper. who knows. They have announced 10 million wax blockchain accounts. (WAXP) is the play.,

Series 2 never had /1,500 moments in base packs. It was /12,000 and 4,000.

As others have said, I'm having trouble keeping up with all these flash challenges. I've been using them to dump moments that would otherwise not sell, but I wish the information was more clear and concisely communicated.

My biggest problem is the WNBA moments. Aside from boosting collector score, I got absolutely hosed on them. I mean I bought moments of the WNBA finals mvp, and still lost like 50-60%.

[grade]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Series 2 never had /1,500 moments in base packs. It was /12,000 and 4,000.

As others have said, I'm having trouble keeping up with all these flash challenges. I've been using them to dump moments that would otherwise not sell, but I wish the information was more clear and concisely communicated.

My biggest problem is the WNBA moments. Aside from boosting collector score, I got absolutely hosed on them. I mean I bought moments of the WNBA finals mvp, and still lost like 50-60%.

that is right it was 10,000, 12,000 then 15,000 etc. unlimited print till LE. Something like that.

The moving goal posts makes everything hard to plan for the future.

[mjohnatgt]

For tonight's Field Goals Made Challenge, the Easy leaders are currently:
Rozier 13/W8/+13
Morant 13/W5/+1
LeBron 13/L5/0

Which means in order to make the Hard challenge, if LeBron stays in it, is to have one of LeBron's first Top Shot moments. 3 games still going on, but unlikely that three people get at least 13 Field Goals based on who's playing and their current paces.

For LeBron 1st TS Moment, there's a /1000 edition and a /299 edition that would both seem to count. Only 50 total are for sale, and the cheapest is listed for $9,900. So if LeBron holds up, they won't be giving out many Series 2 Rare packs. If this was for a mint-on-demand moment based on the number of completions, it would be very rare.

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by mjohnatgt

For tonight's Field Goals Made Challenge, the Easy leaders are currently:
Rozier 13/W8/+13
Morant 13/W5/+1
LeBron 13/L5/0

Which means in order to make the Hard challenge, if LeBron stays in it, is to have one of LeBron's first Top Shot moments. 3 games still going on, but unlikely that three people get at least 13 Field Goals based on who's playing and their current paces.

For LeBron 1st TS Moment, there's a /1000 edition and a /299 edition that would both seem to count. Only 50 total are for sale, and the cheapest is listed for $9,900. So if LeBron holds up, they won't be giving out many Series 2 Rare packs. If this was for a mint-on-demand moment based on the number of completions, it would be very rare.

Agreed. Another one for the whales.

On a side note, I really like the S3 LeBron MGLE. I'm going to try to find a way to get before he retires, since his S1's that I like, are insane.

[mansfield23]

Anyone getting packs today?

[mjohnatgt]

Yep, I'll buy the first 5.

[grade]

Yes, cheap thrills for sure

[ACCDADEAL]

FFS I am buying 10 packs. WHY AM I A DEGENERATE!

[rubendn]

Originally Posted by mansfield23

Anyone getting packs today?

Yeah, I'll buy the 10 if I can. At worst you lose $3 per pack since you can get $2 per moment and you get a chance to hit a rookie, star or low serial #. Plus, I like opening the packs.

In my first 5 nothing special:

Luka serial #2003
Brandon Ingram /9999
Brissett /12000

[mjohnatgt]

My first 5 got me 2 /9999, a /12K. I'm back in line to get a few more if they're still there when my turns comes up.

Just about to sell out. I will say the speed is faster than previous pack sales, so it looks like some of their kinks have been worked out or are at least laying low.

Odd: listed some of my duplicates and since I already have a Steven Adams, tried to list the /9999 I got, but there are none for sale on the MP and it won't let me price it. All the other moments got listed just fine. The error message says this is a known bug that Dapper is trying to fix: "Some Moments cannot be listed or delisted. We realize how this affects Marketplace pricing but this is also being actively investigated."

[rubendn]

Missed out barely on another 5. I was at 1500 when the packs sold out.

[mansfield23]

I was 220 in line when it sold out. I did get my first 5 though.

[mjohnatgt]

The Series 1 Reserve pack sold out. So 350 moments were traded in to get 1 pack, but there were a BUNCH of LeBrons /1000 available, three different moments totalling 1363 of them. There were only 10,425 moments numbered /1000 in those packs, and you were supposedly guaranteed one /1000 per pack. So that means that if you traded for a pack, you had a 13% chance of hitting a LeBron /1000, or better than 1 in 8.

Correction: There is another 500 Reserve packs that just came available that this applies to.