The Zion 'Fatboi' Williamson Career LDL/HDL Tracker | BBW Appreciation Megathread.

[ninjacookies]

There's no perfect answer on how to time the Zion market right now. Buy him if you actually like the guy or if there's a card that just never pops up that you may not see again for awhile. Wait if you're simply in it for the skrilla. Even if he comes back late this season, he's probably going to be eased back in the same way he was in his rookie season.

If you're looking at this from the perspective of anticipating prices coming back to covid peaks, well...you're probably going to be disappointed on a great majority of your holdings...Zion excluded.

[Spacemanspif]

I think any Zion purchase right now is a measure of risk/reward.

For example with the $3k Galactic, is it possible they drop a bit more? Sure, but by how much? $2.5k? 2k? 1k? I think we're approaching the range where you'd have a LOT of bidders because of the somewhat limited downside, and a much higher upside (as compared to the Kaboom or Downtowns or random Peacock / Tiger parallels which are going for 2-3 times the amount of the Galactic)

I think so much downside has been priced in already, if he ever plays again at the level we saw 9 months ago, a lot of the cards selling right now are going to look like crazy bargains. People get this idea stuck in their heads that "it'll never reach peak Covid pricing", but that's true of basically any card. All you really need his stuff to do is go for more than it went today, if you're looking at it from a purely moneymaking perspective. Nobody is going to be able to perfectly time the bottom, much like none of us were able to perfectly time the top. Personally I'm bidding on anything rare that we may not see every month.

Anyway, what do y'all think about them moving his rehab away from the team? It seems weird to me, and at the moment I can't remember other players who have had that type of situation

[regularp]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

There's no perfect answer on how to time the Zion market right now. Buy him if you actually like the guy or if there's a card that just never pops up that you may not see again for awhile. Wait if you're simply in it for the skrilla. Even if he comes back late this season, he's probably going to be eased back in the same way he was in his rookie season.

If you're looking at this from the perspective of anticipating prices coming back to covid peaks, well...you're probably going to be disappointed on a great majority of your holdings...Zion excluded.

I finished second on the PSA 10 Aurora that ended tonight. I'm hoping it pops back up since it was won by a bidder with 4 feedback and it was a Probstein auction.

[KhalDrogo]

Still a very risky buy right now. If his rehab doesn’t go as planned, there’s going to be a second surgery. Then you can push back the return another 3+ months. And what happens if that surgery doesn’t go well either?

Seems like some people don’t understand the downside risk here is that his career is effectively over.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Still a very risky buy right now. If his rehab doesn’t go as planned, there’s going to be a second surgery. Then you can push back the return another 3+ months. And what happens if that surgery doesn’t go well either?

Seems like some people don’t understand the downside risk here is that his career is effectively over.

Upside to downside. Let’s use my favorite Zion card, the One and One rookie.

Last raw copy went for $1632. I’d say it’s floor is like $30. That’s a $1600 loss.

If Zion does come back and competes for MVPs (which was his trajectory) that’s in the realm of $5K IMO. A $3.4K gain.

I can grade it and boost my upside as well.

I’d say the chances of him competing at an MVP level are higher than his career being over. Downside risk definitely exists, but the upside is also still a viable path and probably holds a bit more weight.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Upside to downside. Let’s use my favorite Zion card, the One and One rookie.

Last raw copy went for $1632. I’d say it’s floor is like $30. That’s a $1600 loss.

If Zion does come back and competes for MVPs (which was his trajectory) that’s in the realm of $5K IMO. A $3.4K gain.

I can grade it and boost my upside as well.

I’d say the chances of him competing at an MVP level are higher than his career being over. Downside risk definitely exists, but the upside is also still a viable path and probably holds a bit more weight.

We can have the same conversation we did two months ago. Nothing has changed about this. The “recovery” is going as poorly as I said it could have, and needed to be considered by people buying his stuff.

Partial weight bearing this far out from surgery is bad, bad, bad. We don’t get regular updates because there isn’t anything good to say. End of the season is 3 months away. It’s very difficult to see how he plays this year. And I believe the only reason they haven’t said he’s not coming back is that Zion’s camp doesn’t want that.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

We can have the same conversation we did two months ago. Nothing has changed about this. The “recovery” is going as poorly as I said it could have, and needed to be considered by people buying his stuff.

Partial weight bearing this far out from surgery is bad, bad, bad. We don’t get regular updates because there isn’t anything good to say. End of the season is 3 months away. It’s very difficult to see how he plays this year. And I believe the only reason they haven’t said he’s not coming back is that Zion’s camp doesn’t want that.

I agree with what you’re saying, I just feel like the market has priced this stuff in. His good stuff is barely selling as it is, so you don’t get too many shots at it.

That’s why I can buy a O&O for less than I’ve ever been able to buy one currently. I think most reasonable people assumed he wouldn’t play this year as the Pelicans are dumpster divers.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I agree with what you’re saying, I just feel like the market has priced this stuff in. His good stuff is barely selling as it is, so you don’t get too many shots at it.

That’s why I can buy a O&O for less than I’ve ever been able to buy one currently. I think most reasonable people assumed he wouldn’t play this year as the Pelicans are dumpster divers.

Not going to buy that the market is intelligent enough to price in the real risk that he isn’t ever the same player when people couldn’t comprehend what a setback meant in the fall..

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I agree with what you’re saying, I just feel like the market has priced this stuff in. His good stuff is barely selling as it is, so you don’t get too many shots at it.

That’s why I can buy a O&O for less than I’ve ever been able to buy one currently. I think most reasonable people assumed he wouldn’t play this year as the Pelicans are dumpster divers.

The market is still incredibly irrational. They do not have the risk of not playing again priced in. I’d say at this point that the risk of him not playing again is higher than him winning an mvp or two. Think of all the high quality talent there is in the NBA that are playing now and getting better. Zion has a lot of catching up to do with those players while also avoiding another major injury in his career.

I want Zion to come back and ball out but this is starting to get scary in terms of his long term prospects of having the kind of career he should have had.


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