Marvel Cards are going crazy.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by webjon

Did you watch the video and read the comments?

The commenter nailed it when he was talking about how these investors are focusing on and driving the prices up on individual cards which is driving collectors out of the hobby by making set collecting unattainable.

The video also talked about this to some degree -- about how investors need to sell to other investors.

Also -- it happens more slowly than what you describe. Look at the 1990s. Junk wax wasn't always junk wax.

Cards that were high dollar in the 1990s dropped massively -- 90-95% drops in value for much of the good stuff. Low dollar stuff was literally thrown away.

As the video described sports card guys came looking for other 'investments' when the sports card market plateaued.

If investors drive collectors out of the hobby -- and I definitely see that happening as there are constant complaints on other boards about box prices -- then there is no market except other investors.

You also see collectors being driven out of the hobby by the lack of entertainment offerings -- it seems like it is all Marvel, GPK or Star Wars. Sure there are some other titles, but it seems like these 3 dominate the new releases.

I respectfully disagree, I’m seeing different things as a collector/buyer/seller in the current landscape. Are true collectors being pushed out of top end PMGs? Sure, for the most part. But that happens in other hobbies, look at Metal universe basketball PMGs. There are still plenty of basketball collectors out there despite the absurd prices for those PMGs.

I think it’s reasonable to say there are a whole lot more people with eyes on Marvel cards the last two years, not solely as flippers, but also as collectors. I sell to all kinds of new customers building sets and collecting, from the 90s to now. Is there a FOMO effect going on with stuff like 2016 MM Spider-Man base and achievements, and Vibranium? Probably. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a solid new baseline for marvel across the board.

The comparison to 90s sports junk wax doesn’t work imo, it’s just too overproduced, and there are other factors there. In fact if you look back at numbered baseball inserts or basketball inserts from the 90s, which is a better comparison to newer numbered Marvel, the interest is way up in those for key players especially- card sales in the several thousands, etc. The overall point I’m making is I do not see these cards going down to next to nothing- not at all. Many people are now discovering these cards they didn’t know about 5 years ago.

[webjon]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

The comparison to 90s sports junk wax doesn’t work.

I see what you are saying. . .

One important distinction -- I wasn't talking about *sports* junk wax. I was talking about entertainment cards from the late 1980s and early 1990s.

In that same era investors set their sites on entertainment cards driving up prices and production.

When the investors left and the bubble burst the hobby crashed, and nearly never recovered.

The production numbers are low enough now that a flat out crash is less likely, although arguably outside of a few licenses much of the hobby has already crashed -- that though is a different topic.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by webjon

The production numbers are low enough now that a flat out crash is less likely, although arguably outside of a few licenses much of the hobby has already crashed -- that though is a different topic.

I don’t know a lot about the other non sport licenses, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there could be truth to that. There are exceptions, for example I noticed some Harry Potter key cards doing fairly well recently, and I’m sure there are others. Star Wars obviously. Big name autos are kind of their own thing and hold value regardless of what the brand around them is doing.

I just don’t think this current marvel market can be compared to junk eras, sports or entertainment, being different in fundamental ways. Even during the nonsports “boom” with Marvel back in era of 1990 MU and 1992 MM, it still was a $2-$3 a pack in the store. Key inserts were what, $10. People were speculating, holding mass produced cards, of which a million exist in some cases (that’s in Marvel- in sports, even greater).

The comparison is a little better if you look at the revisit of early 90s marvel last year: the run up on boxes, and how after all that, the boxes now still have above-baseline value. But this comparison isn’t great because still mass produced.

One could also look at the run-up on graded 90 impel cards. Those came way down since last year, but that’s not a surprise considering the supply of those only goes up, when anyone can just send another one in to grade- and go up it did. At least boxes don’t increase in supply.

But at the end of the day that’s all mass-produced. It’s a testament to the sheer interest in Marvel that boxes of some of those mass produced cards still go for $400-$600.

The era of limited modern cards is a different ball game. It’ll be interesting to see.

[webjon]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

I don’t know a lot about the other non sport licenses, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there could be truth to that. There are exceptions, for example I noticed some Harry Potter key cards doing fairly well recently, and I’m sure there are others. Star Wars obviously. Big name autos are kind of their own thing and hold value regardless of what the brand around them is doing.

Sorry, I was unclear -- I was referring to new manufacturing of other licenses.

Quite a bit of older product is increasing in price, but there are now very few new licenses being produced.

Also I see the increase in prices of the MU boxes/grading as the same investor wave that we are currently in with PMGs.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by webjon

Also I see the increase in prices of the MU boxes/grading as the same investor wave that we are currently in with PMGs.

I agree this is probably the case. It’s almost like they decided to change their focus to the limited newer Marvel inserts, once the sheer supply numbers of those early 90s Marvel sets became obvious.

As for current nonsports releases of other brands, yea now that you mention it, I barely know of what’s out there besides Marvel and Star Wars (I’m sure I’m missing many, but still). Maybe I’m just really out of the loop.

[webjon]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

As for current nonsports releases of other brands, yea now that you mention it, I barely know of what’s out there besides Marvel and Star Wars (I’m sure I’m missing many, but still). Maybe I’m just really out of the loop.

Outside of some great niche creators like Attic Cards producing sets based on horror movies the last truly new mainstream license I can think of is Clerks, which came out years ago.

[Fenian95]

Yeah the new sets coming out- outside of SW, Star Trek and Marvel seem to be from small creators.

Attic Cards, RR Parks cards, who just finished Ultraman 1 and 2 will be out shortly.

Rittenhouse has Lost In Space and another Doctor Who in the pipeline.

There is a hope that as Fanatics has taken the major sports over that Panini and Topps might dive deeper into non sports.

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by Fenian95

Yeah the new sets coming out- outside of SW, Star Trek and Marvel seem to be from small creators.

Attic Cards, RR Parks cards, who just finished Ultraman 1 and 2 will be out shortly.

Rittenhouse has Lost In Space and another Doctor Who in the pipeline.

There is a hope that as Fanatics has taken the major sports over that Panini and Topps might dive deeper into non sports.

Just Panini given that Topps is now Fanatics.

[webjon]

I'm hoping that the success of CZX will revitalize Crypozoic's trading card department as well.

[Fenian95]

We can all hope for Cryptozoic for sure.

I know of one product of theirs that is well overdue- the 10th Anniversary set.

Hopefully they are seeing a fair bit of the profit form CZX Crisis and its not just distributors and retailers.

[Yanks23]

I just wish that upper deck would figure out how to get more products out and come up with a better product lineup. It is clear there is a lot more demand for marvel cards today then ever so why not produce some more sets for collectors. There is no reason why they dont have some retail wax versions for stuff like annual and metal (they do several versions in hockey so no reason for marvel). They are missing a great chance to further grow the marvel market with getting cheaper wax into hands of collectors.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by Yanks23

I just wish that upper deck would figure out how to get more products out and come up with a better product lineup. It is clear there is a lot more demand for marvel cards today then ever so why not produce some more sets for collectors. There is no reason why they dont have some retail wax versions for stuff like annual and metal (they do several versions in hockey so no reason for marvel). They are missing a great chance to further grow the marvel market with getting cheaper wax into hands of collectors.

It'll be interesting to see where the upcoming Marvel Beginnings lies. Should in theory be more expensive than annual but cheaper than Metal...sort of that mid range. It's not retail, but at least it may be less than 150 a box (I can hope).

[sthoemke]

Originally Posted by Yanks23

I just wish that upper deck would figure out how to get more products out and come up with a better product lineup. It is clear there is a lot more demand for marvel cards today then ever so why not produce some more sets for collectors. There is no reason why they dont have some retail wax versions for stuff like annual and metal (they do several versions in hockey so no reason for marvel). They are missing a great chance to further grow the marvel market with getting cheaper wax into hands of collectors.

Upper Deck has enough trouble getting their current sets out on time.

They just expanded into wrestling. I don't think they have the capacity for much else.

[Yanks23]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

It'll be interesting to see where the upcoming Marvel Beginnings lies. Should in theory be more expensive than annual but cheaper than Metal...sort of that mid range. It's not retail, but at least it may be less than 150 a box (I can hope).

it would be nice but given pre-sale prices recently probably over $200 and will "sell out" quickly and be relisted 10 times higher each time. There is so much demand for new marvel wax right now.

[Yanks23]

Originally Posted by sthoemke

Upper Deck has enough trouble getting their current sets out on time.

They just expanded into wrestling. I don't think they have the capacity for much else.

Yep. It is sad but probably true. I think it would grow market a lot more if you have $30 blasters for new people to try marvel products instead of $200 hobby boxes.

[HiltonL]

My two cents...

I think the era of the big semi-annual or quarterly at most, set releases is in the past. Now, products are timed around specific events, sports seasons and movies.

As the card companies get bigger, and have to support more costs (obtaining autos, producing cards, distribution, etc, etc, let's throw in 'customer service' for fun), the packed out market is increasingly falling to the little guys like Attic and RR Parks, etc.

But the big companies can afford to stand up infrastructure needed to support products like Topps Now! and UD Epacks. So now all they have to do is collect some photographs of a licensed IP and press a button to start selling. Then they just 'print to order' and there is no massive overprinting. Everything sells at MSRP! This fragmentation is a path to madness for completists, and will serve to bifurcate the market into technology-enabled haves, and have-nots. All that complaining being done about "what about the kids" just has no seat at today's production/distribution/collection table.

This also means that smaller properties like Outlander, DC Comics/DCEU, etc will struggle even more than they already are, to find publishers and collector audiences.
As an old-school collector who gets his thrill from busting physical packs, it's been a pretty dry 2 years for me. Either the production has been slowed by covid, or the pricing for what little is produced, is immediately raised up to scalper levels. I look forward to the markets returning to "normal" but I fear that may take a long time, or maybe never.

[PurplesaurusRex]

Originally Posted by bobducca

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's pretty good grade for a blue holo. The one I have is all scratched up and you can barely see the image. It looks like the one below. The only way you can see it is outside when the sun is super bright. Does anyone know of a way to lighten up the image?

[HiltonL]

That era holos are photosensitive. Once they darken, they're lost for good

[PurplesaurusRex]

Originally Posted by HiltonL

That era holos are photosensitive. Once they darken, they're lost for good

Ugh that sucks. At least the Venom I pulled still looks somewhat decent. And it's more of a turquoise color.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by PurplesaurusRex

That's pretty good grade for a blue holo. The one I have is all scratched up and you can barely see the image. It looks like the one below. The only way you can see it is outside when the sun is super bright. Does anyone know of a way to lighten up the image?

I have had 94 Fleer Spider-Man holos that are almost entirely covered by an opaque black box, and you can’t see anything in any light, kind of like that one you posted. To my knowledge you can’t bring back the image, but I’m not 100% sure.

What is interesting to me is what exactly is causing this- both the blackened image area, and also the blue tint. I’m not sure if the blue tint is an after-effect caused by storage conditions, or were they made that way. I see the one above is bluish, but has a greenish border, others are almost solid blue. Still others are reddish/orange. Either way, I like the blue tint, they are rarer than the usual green.

[Yanks23]

Originally Posted by HiltonL

My two cents...

I think the era of the big semi-annual or quarterly at most, set releases is in the past. Now, products are timed around specific events, sports seasons and movies.

As the card companies get bigger, and have to support more costs (obtaining autos, producing cards, distribution, etc, etc, let's throw in 'customer service' for fun), the packed out market is increasingly falling to the little guys like Attic and RR Parks, etc.

But the big companies can afford to stand up infrastructure needed to support products like Topps Now! and UD Epacks. So now all they have to do is collect some photographs of a licensed IP and press a button to start selling. Then they just 'print to order' and there is no massive overprinting. Everything sells at MSRP! This fragmentation is a path to madness for completists, and will serve to bifurcate the market into technology-enabled haves, and have-nots. All that complaining being done about "what about the kids" just has no seat at today's production/distribution/collection table.

This also means that smaller properties like Outlander, DC Comics/DCEU, etc will struggle even more than they already are, to find publishers and collector audiences.
As an old-school collector who gets his thrill from busting physical packs, it's been a pretty dry 2 years for me. Either the production has been slowed by covid, or the pricing for what little is produced, is immediately raised up to scalper levels. I look forward to the markets returning to "normal" but I fear that may take a long time, or maybe never.

I would have agreed with you on the epack print to order before the past year or so before we saw the huge spike in wax prices. I think UD would have a big problem with LCS and the few big resellers that they move product to.

[HiltonL]

Originally Posted by Yanks23

I would have agreed with you on the epack print to order before the past year or so before we saw the huge spike in wax prices. I think UD would have a big problem with LCS and the few big resellers that they move product to.

UD is moving cautiously, but they are surely moving to epacks print-to-order at least for non-sports. Starting with Agent Carter, now they've had Cloak and Dagger, and Black Widow. That, along with their gimmicky weekly Unbound/Pack Wars releases is what I based my opinion on.

[PurplesaurusRex]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

I have had 94 Fleer Spider-Man holos that are almost entirely covered by an opaque black box, and you can’t see anything in any light, kind of like that one you posted. To my knowledge you can’t bring back the image, but I’m not 100% sure.

What is interesting to me is what exactly is causing this- both the blackened image area, and also the blue tint. I’m not sure if the blue tint is an after-effect caused by storage conditions, or were they made that way. I see the one above is bluish, but has a greenish border, others are almost solid blue. Still others are reddish/orange. Either way, I like the blue tint, they are rarer than the usual green.

Here's a picture of the Venom holo. It could be the green edges mixing with the blue that is causing the turquoise effect:

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by PurplesaurusRex

Here's a picture of the Venom holo. It could be the green edges mixing with the blue that is causing the turquoise effect:



Attachment 518377

Ah, yes I see the turquoise, more that than a deep blue. That’s not bad since you can still see the venom image. Some are darkened to a point of blank black.

Here is a silver surfer of mine, note also the green border



And a blue Spidey vs Venom, it’s almost entirely blue.





It was hard to take this pic, because I can barely get the image of the blue one to show in the light. The green one, on the other hand, is clearly seen at almost any angle in the light.

[Yanks23]

Originally Posted by HiltonL

UD is moving cautiously, but they are surely moving to epacks print-to-order at least for non-sports. Starting with Agent Carter, now they've had Cloak and Dagger, and Black Widow. That, along with their gimmicky weekly Unbound/Pack Wars releases is what I based my opinion on.

Agent carter and C&D were crap products that no one other than people with nothing to do on epack bought. Black Widow was probably more due to covid and not a ton of demand for that set. Weekly and pack wars been going on for years on epack so nothing new.

I mean if they pull MM, MA and now metal from stores and go 100% epack they would lose a lot of big customer business but maybe they wont care in the future but given market today i dont see it since people still want live cards and not deal with comc crap.