Patrick Mahomes Prices

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Two years ago Rams were not even in the discussion. People were calling Chiefs a dynasty two years ago. Bucs won last year and Rams this year. Organizations are approaching the way the teams are built differently. Some are moving away from the traditional "draft talent and develop talent" approach. Bucs and Rams are typical examples in the past two years. Last two SB's showed how defense can have a significant impact on winning championships. Chiefs defense sucks and they need to work on that. I am not saying Chiefs are not going to win any more rings in the next few years but I am not having high hopes on it because I don't want to get disappointed like I did last year and this year.

The last 2 Super Bowls??? Defense has always had a significant impact…

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

The last 2 Super Bowls??? Defense has always had a significant impact…

I was referring to how organizations are building teams differently and last two years (Bucs and Rams) are examples of that. You can have a great offense but if your defense is below average, you are less likely to win a championship nowadays given how stacked up many teams are. Yes, defense has always had a significant impact and chiefs need to shore up their defense if they want to have a shot at more rings.

[BosPats1980]

I don't think the Rams will be around the top for very long. It's pretty tough to maintain your team when you have no young talent or trade assets. They did the right thing and sold out to win now.

For me my eyes tell me that Mahomes is the best in the NFL right now. I personally think he will be better than Manning. Winning 7 or more SuperBowls is obviously a crazy thought, but everyone thought more than 4 was crazy until TB12 came along. Anyways I think this is a tremendous learning lesson for Patty and I'm willing to take the chance that he is the guy most people are talking about at the end of every season for the next 15 years and do believe he is just too good to not at least get over the hump again at least once in the near future. Montana didn't win every year. Brady didn't win every year, but they both had their teams in SB contention every season and that is the best thing you can hope for every season.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

I think when presented with the option of Mahomes or the field to win a SB, the field is an easy bet year in and year out. Even as the favorite to win every year, KC is still worse than 5-1 odds. I think that is why it is easy for people to make the statements that they do. Having said that, there is not a single QB for which I would say they will certainly win a SB in the future. But we know someone has to win it every year, and Mahomes is at the top of my list when looking solely at the qb position.

That's a better way of saying what I wanted.

So, with that information, unless a hobbyist is interested in ONLY retired players (Brady, etc), than the best statistical bet moving forward for continued success is Mahomes.

Humans watching live sports will react emotionally to the outcome and thus want cards of successful winners. Brady isn't the only name going up in football over the next 5-10 years.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

I think when presented with the option of Mahomes or the field to win a SB, the field is an easy bet year in and year out. Even as the favorite to win every year, KC is still worse than 5-1 odds. I think that is why it is easy for people to make the statements that they do. Having said that, there is not a single QB for which I would say they will certainly win a SB in the future. But we know someone has to win it every year, and Mahomes is at the top of my list when looking solely at the qb position.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts. I do not own Allen or Burrow cards and have no plans to invest in them either especially at current prices.

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I was referring to how organizations are building teams differently and last two years (Bucs and Rans) are examples of that. You can have a great offense but if your defense is below average, you are less likely to win a championship nowadays given how stacked up many teams are. Yes, defense has always had a significant impact and chiefs need to shore up their defense if they want to have a shot at more rings.

KC was good enough to win each of the last two years, things just didn’t break right. Injuries killed them two years ago and this year they just had a let down. Things don’t always break your way. But if you keep putting yourself in those positions, the hope is that things do break your way some years.

Organizations can try to build teams in the same fashion as the Bucs and Rams did, but teams have been trying that forever. It is just being talked about now because of recent success. When you sell out for a year or two, it cripples your team long term. It is why few teams try it.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I'm actually curious who BO thinks will win SBs for the next 10 years.

Apparently it's not Patty. And it's definitely not Joe. I'm assuming it's probably going to be Matt/Josh's/Kyler's/Lamar/Justin/Dak's league from here on out. Sprinkle in some Mac Daddy and Trey Lance and those are the bets we should be making

If we're going out 10 years, there will probably be one or two in there who aren't even in the League yet. There will probably also be a team or two who we look at as being really bad for years, such as Cleveland, Detroit or NY.

It is simply unpredictable. Look how bad Cincy was these past 2 years.... and yet they almost won it all. Maybe Lawrence gets hot. Maybe Lance does. Maybe Carr does. I certainly wouldn't rule out Herbert or Allen. There's a lot of exciting new blood in the League. It should be a fun decade.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

I think when presented with the option of Mahomes or the field to win a SB, the field is an easy bet year in and year out. Even as the favorite to win every year, KC is still worse than 5-1 odds. I think that is why it is easy for people to make the statements that they do. Having said that, there is not a single QB for which I would say they will certainly win a SB in the future. But we know someone has to win it every year, and Mahomes is at the top of my list when looking solely at the qb position.

People seem to forget how hard it is to really win the Super Bowl.

Dan Marino, 0 wins
Philip Rivers, 0 wins
Matt Ryan, 0 wins
Russell Wilson, 1 win
Aaron Rodgers, 1 win
Brett Favre, 1 win
Drew Brees, 1 win
Steve Young, 1 win as the main guy starting
Peyton Manning, only 2 wins
John Elway, only 2 wins

I feel people saw Brady go to the Super Bowl so much, and win, they just assumed Mahomes would be able to match that in a way. I would say it's more likely to see the Bills, Ravens, and Titans all make the Super Bowl(or any 3 teams really in the AFC) to make the Super Bowl in the next 3 years, than it is to see the Chiefs go 3 years in a row.

Chiefs still will probably make it back, and I see them winning again, but heck people were saying the same about Aaron Rodgers back in early last decade.

If I had to say what young QB's do I see winning the Super Bowl, I would say Allen and Mahomes are the only two I really see winning.

[jgb1219]

Originally Posted by Zauron

People seem to forget how hard it is to really win the Super Bowl.

Dan Marino, 0 wins
Philip Rivers, 0 wins
Matt Ryan, 0 wins
Russell Wilson, 1 win
Aaron Rodgers, 1 win
Brett Favre, 1 win
Drew Brees, 1 win
Steve Young, 1 win as the main guy starting
Peyton Manning, only 2 wins
John Elway, only 2 wins

I feel people saw Brady go to the Super Bowl so much, and win, they just assumed Mahomes would be able to match that in a way. I would say it's more likely to see the Bills, Ravens, and Titans all make the Super Bowl(or any 3 teams really in the AFC) to make the Super Bowl in the next 3 years, than it is to see the Chiefs go 3 years in a row.

Chiefs still will probably make it back, and I see them winning again, but heck people were saying the same about Aaron Rodgers back in early last decade.

If I had to say what young QB's do I see winning the Super Bowl, I would say Allen and Mahomes are the only two I really see winning.

Even with Brady, people forget that he went a decade without winning a Super Bowl.

[BosPats1980]

Sadly for Rodgers he had McCarthy as the head coach for the prime of his career. You could even make the argument that Reid should take on some blame on this one for not kicking the FG at the end of the 1st half. That alone would have put them in a better position in the second half of the game. Stupid calls like that always come back to haunt teams.

However that doesn't completely excuse Mahomes for forgetting how to run the offense in the second half. Even so Mahomes will always have his team in a position to contend in the AFC which is something a lot of teams can't definitely say right now because he has proven it over his last 4 years. That's what also made guys like Brady and Manning special. Every season they at least gave their teams a chance to get to the Super Bowl.

Originally Posted by Zauron

People seem to forget how hard it is to really win the Super Bowl.

Dan Marino, 0 wins
Philip Rivers, 0 wins
Matt Ryan, 0 wins
Russell Wilson, 1 win
Aaron Rodgers, 1 win
Brett Favre, 1 win
Drew Brees, 1 win
Steve Young, 1 win as the main guy starting
Peyton Manning, only 2 wins
John Elway, only 2 wins

I feel people saw Brady go to the Super Bowl so much, and win, they just assumed Mahomes would be able to match that in a way. I would say it's more likely to see the Bills, Ravens, and Titans all make the Super Bowl(or any 3 teams really in the AFC) to make the Super Bowl in the next 3 years, than it is to see the Chiefs go 3 years in a row.

Chiefs still will probably make it back, and I see them winning again, but heck people were saying the same about Aaron Rodgers back in early last decade.

If I had to say what young QB's do I see winning the Super Bowl, I would say Allen and Mahomes are the only two I really see winning.

[bberns]

QB cap hit as a percentage of the overall cap is an incredibly important and overlooked metric. Very rarely do teams with a QB in the top 10 of cap hits make it to or win the Super Bowl (I checked the stats since 2000 yesterday to verify). So many times, the best teams are those that have a good or great QB on a rookie deal that can then spend more cash on the rest of the team.

Mahomes won't have that advantage for the rest of his career.

I am confident that Brady wouldn't have close to 7 rings if he had been playing for market rates along the way.

[BosPats1980]

Very True!! Brady kept taking less than market value so that he could win. I hope Mahomes will do the same at some point in order to win.

Originally Posted by bberns

QB cap hit as a percentage of the overall cap is an incredibly important and overlooked metric. Very rarely do teams with a QB in the top 10 of cap hits make it to or win the Super Bowl (I checked the stats since 2000 yesterday to verify). So many times, the best teams are those that have a good or great QB on a rookie deal that can then spend more cash on the rest of the team.

Mahomes won't have that advantage for the rest of his career.

I am confident that Brady wouldn't have close to 7 rings if he had been playing for market rates along the way.

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

Very True!! Brady kept taking less than market value so that he could win. I hope Mahomes will do the same at some point in order to win.

I think he will. He does want to win. Imagine if he can just learn to take what the defense gives him (like he started to at the end of this year before forgetting everything he learned in the second half of the AFC championship).

This is literally how Brady won everything. Dink and dunk to Edelman and running backs and then hit the deep throw when it's there. If Mahomes can learn to control himself (and I think he will) he will be very, very successful.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

Very True!! Brady kept taking less than market value so that he could win. I hope Mahomes will do the same at some point in order to win.

The contract (extension) he signed a couple years ago makes it clear he has no desire to leave money on the table.

[BosPats1980]

I don't know all of the ins and outs of a football contract, but I think when any player, not just Mahomes signs those monster deals it's to get a lot of money up front and then MOSTLY you will see players restructure several times over the length of the contract if I'm not mistaken. So his $500M deal won't actually be that, but they do it just for the headlines. I may be wrong, but I thought this is a typical occurrence in the NFL.

Agree with the giving what the defense gives you. If the Chiefs could learn to throw a screen or 2 or have kept giving the ball to McKinnon. Definite oversight on the offenses part in the second half.

Originally Posted by Fenway55

The contract (extension) he signed a couple years ago makes it clear he has no desire to leave money on the table.

[bberns]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

I don't know all of the ins and outs of a football contract, but I think when any player, not just Mahomes signs those monster deals it's to get a lot of money up front and then MOSTLY you will see players restructure several times over the length of the contract if I'm not mistaken. So his $500M deal won't actually be that, but they do it just for the headlines. I may be wrong, but I thought this is a typical occurrence in the NFL.

Agree with the giving what the defense gives you. If the Chiefs could learn to throw a screen or 2 or have kept giving the ball to McKinnon. Definite oversight on the offenses part in the second half.

When high-performing players restructure, they aren't taking money off of the table. They are just agreeing with the team to change the timing of the cap hits.

Relatedly, I am not arguing that Burrow or Herbert are better than Mahomes, but their rookie deals and the cap space that each team has will make them very tough teams next year. An All-Pro caliber quarterback on a rookie deal is basically an assured ticket to playoff contention. The Chiefs benefitted from this greatly, but will no longer have this advantage. It translates into 2-4 additional strong starters.

[Zauron]

People are also not talking about how they are about $3ish million under the cap right now for 2022, with several free agents out there. Most notable Orlando Brown, Melvin Ingram and Mathieu.

They likely cut Frank Clark, but then that leaves a gap still. More restructuring/etc, but I feel the defense could see a further lapse, especially if they don't draft well for defense. Kelce getting older, Hill a free agent after 2022, roster could be very different.

That said, I fully expect the Chiefs to draft a receiver in the 1st round now lol and maybe another running back in the middle rounds.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

I don't know all of the ins and outs of a football contract, but I think when any player, not just Mahomes signs those monster deals it's to get a lot of money up front and then MOSTLY you will see players restructure several times over the length of the contract if I'm not mistaken. So his $500M deal won't actually be that, but they do it just for the headlines. I may be wrong, but I thought this is a typical occurrence in the NFL.

Agree with the giving what the defense gives you. If the Chiefs could learn to throw a screen or 2 or have kept giving the ball to McKinnon. Definite oversight on the offenses part in the second half.

Restructuring is always for cap purposes. Unless he is cut Pat will see that money.
What typically happens with restructures is to take guaranteed salary, turn it into a singing bonus and lengthen the deal.
His contract is unique in that right now, he is signed through age 37. By the time he is mid contract he could be making significantly less than most Upper tier QB. If he wants a restructure at that point, it puts the team in a difficult position because he doesn’t have much backend left on his potential playing time to restructure.

He has a very unique QB contract that could help or hurt the team in a couple years.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Name a QB that can pass against 8 defenders. These narratives, SMH

Patty's never faced eight men in the secondary before the AFC championship?


come on, blue, you are better than this.


He crapped the bed in the second half. I love Patty, still the best QB in the league, but if he plays like crap, I'm going to call him on it. Doesn't mean I'm going to stop collecting him.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Patty's never faced eight men in the secondary before the AFC championship?


come on, blue, you are better than this.


He crapped the bed in the second half. I love Patty, still the best QB in the league, but if he plays like crap, I'm going to call him on it. Doesn't mean I'm going to stop collecting him.

No other way than to call it was it is...

He played a perfect game against the Bills, a near perfect first half against the Bengals, then one of the worst halves of his career in the 2nd.

I'll leave blaming the refs, the offensive line, the wide receivers, and everyone else for the sore Bengals fans this week.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Patty's never faced eight men in the secondary before the AFC championship?


come on, blue, you are better than this.


He crapped the bed in the second half. I love Patty, still the best QB in the league, but if he plays like crap, I'm going to call him on it. Doesn't mean I'm going to stop collecting him.

That second half was one of the oddest that I've ever seen. Up until that point, Patty had played nearly perfect football for, what, 9 straight quarters + an OT? It would be surprising to me that a simple shift in defensive philosophy would throw him off his game so much - especially when he had seen that philosophy for most of the season already.

Bill Simmons has suggested Patty had a concussion. Others have suggested some sort of fight at halftime between the coaches and Patty because of the flub before half. Maybe it was the consecutive drops by Hill and Kelce on the first drive of the 3rd quarter. I'm sure only Patty and the coaches/players on the Chiefs know what it really was - but something at halftime or right after just crushed his confidence and he looked like a different guy almost immediately.

I'm pretty sure that whatever it was he will make sure to not let it get in the way of his confidence ever again.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by TSonn

That second half was one of the oddest that I've ever seen. Up until that point, Patty had played nearly perfect football for, what, 9 straight quarters + an OT? It would be surprising to me that a simple shift in defensive philosophy would throw him off his game so much - especially when he had seen that philosophy for most of the season already.

Bill Simmons has suggested Patty had a concussion. Others have suggested some sort of fight at halftime between the coaches and Patty because of the flub before half. Maybe it was the consecutive drops by Hill and Kelce on the first drive of the 3rd quarter. I'm sure only Patty and the coaches/players on the Chiefs know what it really was - but something at halftime or right after just crushed his confidence and he looked like a different guy almost immediately.

I'm pretty sure that whatever it was he will make sure to not let it get in the way of his confidence ever again.

Agree 100%. I still have faith.

Just picked up an unopened 2017 prizm box for what I thought was a good price.

[regularp]

Originally Posted by Zauron

People seem to forget how hard it is to really win the Super Bowl.

Dan Marino, 0 wins
Philip Rivers, 0 wins
Matt Ryan, 0 wins
Russell Wilson, 1 win
Aaron Rodgers, 1 win
Brett Favre, 1 win
Drew Brees, 1 win
Steve Young, 1 win as the main guy starting
Peyton Manning, only 2 wins
John Elway, only 2 wins

I feel people saw Brady go to the Super Bowl so much, and win, they just assumed Mahomes would be able to match that in a way. I would say it's more likely to see the Bills, Ravens, and Titans all make the Super Bowl(or any 3 teams really in the AFC) to make the Super Bowl in the next 3 years, than it is to see the Chiefs go 3 years in a row.

Chiefs still will probably make it back, and I see them winning again, but heck people were saying the same about Aaron Rodgers back in early last decade.

If I had to say what young QB's do I see winning the Super Bowl, I would say Allen and Mahomes are the only two I really see winning.

People forget how dominant Favre was from '95-97. Back then, it felt like he was gonna go to seven Super Bowls when he won three straight MVPs.

Things can change quickly. That's why Brady's run has been so unfathomable and anybody making the comparison is nuts. Prices should be:

Brady























Everybody else.

Instead, it's:

Brady

Mahomes
Everybody else

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

I don't know all of the ins and outs of a football contract, but I think when any player, not just Mahomes signs those monster deals it's to get a lot of money up front and then MOSTLY you will see players restructure several times over the length of the contract if I'm not mistaken. So his $500M deal won't actually be that, but they do it just for the headlines. I may be wrong, but I thought this is a typical occurrence in the NFL.

No it won't be $500 million - but it did guarantee $141 million. Any money a player gets will hit the cap eventually.

His cap hit this past year was $7.5 million (4% of the cap). Next year it will be $35 million (17%). Then 3 years in the mid-$40's. The Chiefs can restructure this offseason if they want to and kick the can down the road one more year.... but come 2023, we can safely anticipate Mahomes taking up at least 18% to 20% of the cap all by himself.

Since 2000, the average cap hit for a Super Bowl winning QB is 6.99%. No QB has won the Super Bowl taking up 13% or more of the cap and only 3 QB's have ever even made the Super Bowl taking up 13% or more (2 of whom were named Peyton Manning and Peyton Manning).

[imbluestreak23]

I would love to see video evidence of these open receivers available for a dink and dunk

All video evidence I’ve seen indicates men were covered.

But narratives will be what they will be