Recession Game Plan

[shortstopguy12]

With the potential of a recession, what are your vintage plans? Do you think prices will stay the same, or do you think there will be an increase? Logic says that people will need to liquidate things like sports card to get some extra cash. However, those with higher end cards, most likely will not be as impacted as many other by a recession and may not need to sell, but might be looking to purchase. For those of you who were in the vintage game in 2008, what did you see?

[irv]

Originally Posted by shortstopguy12

With the potential of a recession, what are your vintage plans? Do you think prices will stay the same, or do you think there will be an increase? Logic says that people will need to liquidate things like sports card to get some extra cash. However, those with higher end cards, most likely will not be as impacted as many other by a recession and may not need to sell, but might be looking to purchase. For those of you who were in the vintage game in 2008, what did you see?

Recession??? The way things are going up here too leads me to believe a depression is more likely.
What a #@#@#@#@ show!

[CardboardCombat]

The best thing that can happen for me going into The National are for prices to collapse.

[k13]

Only if rates go up significantly which they won't.

[pdxprospect]

No matter what happens...

I will most likely hold higher end items, while letting go over the lower end items, which have softened.

From my perspective, the high end continues to rise, while the lower end is not as strong it was.

[VanLingoMungo46]

From what I have seen prices have been stable overall. The "cards that guys love" continue to perform well. Plenty of inefficiency in the market, plenty of opportunities for arbitrage. Vintage cards are fantastic and there are more people into them than there were two years ago and so the trend is still your friend. In some ways vintage baseball has been one of the least volatile things to buy in the past several years. There's still a pool of guys aged 30+ who haven't yet gotten back into vintage but could, and it could still grow in popularity with the kids.

I'm bullish! Which means you should probably sell now.

[Chiefnocahoma]

Prices have never gone down for mantle, Koufax, mays, Aaron or Clemente since I’ve been around.

[discodanman45]

Even 1980 and junk wax cards have been holding strong for the last 8 months and even slightly going up for HOF rookies. I thought things would get worse, but there are enough middle-aged guys making too much money to keep things going up. If you look at YouTube you can see who is collecting vintage. It is 30 to 50 year old's with great jobs and disposable income. Do you think these people care about $6 a gallon gas? Absolutely not.

[k13]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Even 1980 and junk wax cards have been holding strong for the last 8 months and even slightly going up for HOF rookies. I thought things would get worse, but there are enough middle-aged guys making too much money to keep things going up. If you look at YouTube you can see who is collecting vintage. It is 30 to 50 year old's with great jobs and disposable income. Do you think these people care about $6 a gallon gas? Absolutely not.

Recession won't be high gasoline prices it will be these people losing their jobs then losing their homes.

Jordan Rookies are down like 80%.
Gretzky Rookies down.
Griffey rookies down from peak.
All 80's rookies down big from peak.

Not sure what holding strong means to you. Maybe the last bunch of months it has been stagnating but from peak majority have dropped huge.

Inflation is a tax on everything. 10k disposable income a year will turn to almost nothing at these rates.

The prices of goods are still not reflective of the new gas prices.

2009 will be like kids play when the next recession hits for real.
Tech stocks will get slaughtered at high rates then lay off people in record numbers.

Right now nothing has happened yet and the sports card market is already crap besides a few cards being pumped.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by k13

Recession won't be high gasoline prices it will be these people losing their jobs then losing their homes.

Jordan Rookies are down like 80%.
Gretzky Rookies down.
Griffey rookies down from peak.
All 80's rookies down big from peak.

Not sure what holding strong means to you. Maybe the last bunch of months it has been stagnating but from peak majority have dropped huge.

Every single card you listed has sold at the same price for 8 plus months. Who cares about the peak? That was a time of complete stupidity. The market has stabilized besides all the ultra modern everything must be slabbed era. The people who bought at the peak have already been burned. The market is very stable now for junk wax and older.

[Tails01]

In general,

Modern prices are soft.
80s-90s are trending down.

Anything before 1965 has been holding steady or rising, as long as it's a player that folks want. If you weren't turning your modern into vintage last year, you're having a bad time financially.

[smanzari]

Originally Posted by k13

Recession won't be high gasoline prices it will be these people losing their jobs then losing their homes.

Jordan Rookies are down like 80%.
Gretzky Rookies down.
Griffey rookies down from peak.
All 80's rookies down big from peak.

Not sure what holding strong means to you. Maybe the last bunch of months it has been stagnating but from peak majority have dropped huge.

Inflation is a tax on everything. 10k disposable income a year will turn to almost nothing at these rates.

The prices of goods are still not reflective of the new gas prices.

2009 will be like kids play when the next recession hits for real.
Tech stocks will get slaughtered at high rates then lay off people in record numbers.

Right now nothing has happened yet and the sports card market is already crap besides a few cards being pumped.

This is not the result of a recession, its the result of market stupidity and changing demand in the market as a result. Generally "Blue Chip" Vintage is recession-proof, similar to art - just look at the numbers before, during and after 2008

[hauntedcomputer]

Almost zero cards keep up with inflation over the long haul, much less the S & P 500. Such cards are outliers on the order of 0.0001 percent. We hear about the record sales prices of rare superstars. We don't hear about the folks who get slaughtered trying to turn modern cards or speculate on rookies or spend their grocery money busting wax.

Cards are a hobby, not an investment, unless you are wealthy enough that it doesn't matter anyway. This new era where people are making stock-like charts of "card performance" is going to end in tears.

[VanLingoMungo46]

Cards can absolutely be an investment. Ask any number of people who have made tons of money on cards. They are out there along with other smaller timers who have ridden the growth of these past several years. Vintage has been a sensational market for investors. It's hard to really argue otherwise.

Not a big fan of the "sky is falling" argument either. Yes vintage prices will decline if we get hyper-inflation and the world collapses, or we at least have a very deep recession/depression -- all of them are very realistic possibilities. But then you've got more problems than a declining card market anyhow, right? I think if that were to happen guys would be more inclined to dig in and not sell their beloved cards until they have to feed their family, in which case we would all be f-ed anyhow, in which case all investments would be pretty much toast along with the dollar.

As a general investment compared to what else is out there in these uncertain times, I remain bullish on cards. Although if you believe we are going to go in the tank then I suppose basic necessity companies make the best saver investments.

[k13]

Originally Posted by smanzari

This is not the result of a recession, its the result of market stupidity and changing demand in the market as a result. Generally "Blue Chip" Vintage is recession-proof, similar to art - just look at the numbers before, during and after 2008

Jordan/Gretzky rookies are nothing but trending down.
But I supposed that's overproduced junk anyway.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by k13

Jordan/Gretzky rookies are nothing but trending down.
But I supposed that's overproduced junk anyway.

They are also not vintage.

[shortstopguy12]

Originally Posted by k13

Jordan/Gretzky rookies are nothing but trending down.
But I supposed that's overproduced junk anyway.

Do you have any Gretzky charts? I’d love to hear or see a bunch of data

[Nymets6986a]

Originally Posted by k13

Jordan/Gretzky rookies are nothing but trending down.
But I supposed that's overproduced junk anyway.

High grade? Or overall?

[nicepakryan]

Originally Posted by Nymets6986a

High grade? Or overall?

I would love to see overall.
Thanks!

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by hauntedcomputer

Almost zero cards keep up with inflation over the long haul, much less the S & P 500. Such cards are outliers on the order of 0.0001 percent. We hear about the record sales prices of rare superstars. We don't hear about the folks who get slaughtered trying to turn modern cards or speculate on rookies or spend their grocery money busting wax.

Cards are a hobby, not an investment, unless you are wealthy enough that it doesn't matter anyway. This new era where people are making stock-like charts of "card performance" is going to end in tears.

this is a bad take.

Vintage prices have 50+ years of data to support otherwise.

[CardboardCombat]

Lots and lots of vintage auctions on EBay just sitting there. Expiring and getting relisted. Over and over again.

Getting lots of discount offers from sellers, but right now the sellers are in denial. Weak 6% or 10% discounts.

Just wait until Memorial Day and the rest of the summer. The average person will be barely able to fill their gas tank for the summer trip let alone money for cards.

Can't wait until The National. Should get some discounts there.

I would imagine the people who get tax refunds are really disappointed this year too because they forgot the Child Tax Credit payments they were getting monthly last year were an advance on the credit for the return and not an additional credit.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by CardboardCombat

Lots and lots of vintage auctions on EBay just sitting there. Expiring and getting relisted. Over and over again.

Getting lots of discount offers from sellers, but right now the sellers are in denial. Weak 6% or 10% discounts.

Just wait until Memorial Day and the rest of the summer. The average person will be barely able to fill their gas tank for the summer trip let alone money for cards.

Can't wait until The National. Should get some discounts there.

I would imagine the people who get tax refunds are really disappointed this year too because they forgot the Child Tax Credit payments they were getting monthly last year were an advance on the credit for the return and not an additional credit.

Highly doubtful you will get discounts at The National. The shows have been busier recently than they have ever been before. A lot of money is trending away from online and more to in person at shows. The April 1-3 show at Chantilly had record attendance and The Philly Show in March was one of the busiest I have ever seen.

I'm not sure how many of you have been to shows recently but attendance is definitely trending up and I don't see any slowing down in the near future.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by CardboardCombat

Lots and lots of vintage auctions on EBay just sitting there. Expiring and getting relisted. Over and over again.

Getting lots of discount offers from sellers, but right now the sellers are in denial. Weak 6% or 10% discounts.

Vintage is selling on eBay and at really high prices for the stuff I want. What years are you talking about? If you are calling late 70's and 80's or even 90's vintage, then yes, some stuff is selling lower. However, even the 1980 Henderson and key 70's rookies are selling at high prices right now. Some people have their stuff way over market value, so it won't sell. This is the same for anything on eBay.

The majority of stuff at the National will be ultra-modern and junk slabs. Anything vintage will sell at high prices. From the YouTubers I see buying vintage at card shows, they are paying premium prices. Right now I am only buying raw vintage. So many young kids in the space that need everything slabbed and think everything is fake if it is not in a slab.

[smanzari]

Originally Posted by CardboardCombat

Lots and lots of vintage auctions on EBay just sitting there. Expiring and getting relisted. Over and over again.

Getting lots of discount offers from sellers, but right now the sellers are in denial. Weak 6% or 10% discounts.

Just wait until Memorial Day and the rest of the summer. The average person will be barely able to fill their gas tank for the summer trip let alone money for cards.

Can't wait until The National. Should get some discounts there.

I would imagine the people who get tax refunds are really disappointed this year too because they forgot the Child Tax Credit payments they were getting monthly last year were an advance on the credit for the return and not an additional credit.

I sell vintage singles (as well as modern) and have about 400 envelopes to go out today from the weekend alone. I'm seeing the exact opposite of what you guys are pining on in this thread - is it high-grade, stupidly-priced vintage you're referring to?

[CardboardCombat]

For baseball I buy graded vintage from the 50s and 60s. I don't really consider the 70s and later to be vintage. LOL, no that's not because I'm an old fart. I'm not really.

I've been monitoring a couple dozen auctions for the past few months because these are cards I'm targeting at the National. I want to see what they sell for, if there's demand, etc. for when I go to negotiate with the dealer at the National. The $10K plus graded vintage market at EBay seems to be dying.

With what I think the economy is already like plus with what I think it'll be like this summer, I'm expecting some serious deals at the National. I know dealers are going to fight that, but reality says the number of people who are going to be in the market to buy cards priced at those levels is going to drop.

I bring cash with me so I get deals all the time. If a dealer isn't moving on price then he's not a serious seller.