The Minor League Daily Thread - 4/21

[88luisrising88]

Originally Posted by bulljh

Are you buying him at $50? If so, kudos to you for the big balls.

The guy is 19. It takes one good week for people to change their opinion on a prospect. That good stretch could be next week, next month, or next year.

So like I said you also probably shouldn’t be prospecting if you don’t understand the volatility. If you’re going to give up on a prospect immediately, you’re basically buying high and selling low.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

So that precludes him from reducing that percentage? I'm just saying, the sky isn't falling.

Point is, it can come down a lot and still be too high. When it's 22 K in 36 PA it is a problem, especially in A-ball.

[OnTheAir]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Will Bednar - 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K

The Giants first three picks of the 2021 draft are looking sharp in San Jose.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[marterburn]

I was just about to comp Jose de La Cruz's improvement from last year to this as an exemplar of Preciado potentially improving, but JDLC has cooled in his last 3 games w/ a golden sombrero today so...yeah, not gonna do that

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by 88luisrising88

The guy is 19. It takes one good week for people to change their opinion on a prospect. That good stretch could be next week, next month, or next year.

So like I said you also probably shouldn’t be prospecting if you don’t understand the volatility. If you’re going to give up on a prospect immediately, you’re basically buying high and selling low.

Actually, you should understand the volatility. You don't just get to say "sample size" and waive away all bad performance. The importance of the stat, how far from normal, and how quickly it stabilizes matters. K% stabilizes quickly and 61% is waaaaaay out of the range of normal, even for only 36 PA.

Doing some quick and dirty math in my head I estimate that I would up Preciado's projected K% by about 7% based on those 36 PA. That's huge! It definitely warrants a downgrade of his prospect status. I'd probably drop him two notches on my system, although it would depend on where he was ranked prior. Fangraphs had him as a 50 but with only a 40 future hit. If that were the case I'd call him a 45+ now.

I also need to address the $50 BCA. I had three thoughts right in a row;

1) My first thought was, $50 for a 19 year old in full season ball for the Cubs? That's about the minimum for that profile.

2) My second thought was I just bought a Joey Gallo BCA refractor for $40. Gallo has more way upside than Preciado.

3) My third thought was what about Owen Caissie? I've seen him up close and he's a big strong dude with a solid swing and room on the frame to add muscle. Sure enough, Caissie looks to be about $ 70. In that case I'd buy the cheaper guy because they are both essentially lottery tickets at this point.

Lastly, I ran him through my price adjuster to neutralize age and team. Preciado came out a little higher than I thought, but still to the point that he probably only needs to make the top 100 list within the next 3-4 years to be higher than $50. Given that Fangraphs had him on the fringe this year, I'd say that's an fairly easy hill to climb (not a guarantee though). If he can get to Alek Thomas level of top 100 list (#20 to #40), you're looking at 4x. If he can ever crack the top 10 you'd be looking at 10x. That's with no major league performance, BTW.

[rwperu34]

Jordan Groshans is playing baseball in A ball on a rehab assignment.

[5pujols5]

Moises Gomes HR (7 on the season). Not a top 100 prospect, and I am a Cardinal homer, but he has 7 home runs and hitting .471 on the young season. Good to see the power in the Cardinals organization!

[NewLondonWhaler]

Originally Posted by 5pujols5

Moises Gomes HR (7 on the season). Not a top 100 prospect, and I am a Cardinal homer, but he has 7 home runs and hitting .471 on the young season. Good to see the power in the Cardinals organization!

He's in the Cards system? I thought he was buried in the Rays system still. Did they pick him up Rule 5 or something?

I picked a /25 Auto of his several years ago and sat on it. Glad to see he's locking in finally.

[NewLondonWhaler]

Originally Posted by 88luisrising88

The guy is 19. It takes one good week for people to change their opinion on a prospect. That good stretch could be next week, next month, or next year.

So like I said you also probably shouldn’t be prospecting if you don’t understand the volatility. If you’re going to give up on a prospect immediately, you’re basically buying high and selling low.

$50 for a mid tier top 100 big market prospect is about the norm now entry level. He has helium and that initial $50 can blow up anytime during the season. Even if he's performing lousy right now, he has plenty of time to straighten out this season. At 19, he's a hold. I would say he's far from a bust at this point. He has a while to be Nick Senzel.

[88luisrising88]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Actually, you should understand the volatility. You don't just get to say "sample size" and waive away all bad performance. The importance of the stat, how far from normal, and how quickly it stabilizes matters. K% stabilizes quickly and 61% is waaaaaay out of the range of normal, even for only 36 PA.

Doing some quick and dirty math in my head I estimate that I would up Preciado's projected K% by about 7% based on those 36 PA. That's huge! It definitely warrants a downgrade of his prospect status. I'd probably drop him two notches on my system, although it would depend on where he was ranked prior. Fangraphs had him as a 50 but with only a 40 future hit. If that were the case I'd call him a 45+ now.

I also need to address the $50 BCA. I had three thoughts right in a row;

1) My first thought was, $50 for a 19 year old in full season ball for the Cubs? That's about the minimum for that profile.

2) My second thought was I just bought a Joey Gallo BCA refractor for $40. Gallo has more way upside than Preciado.

3) My third thought was what about Owen Caissie? I've seen him up close and he's a big strong dude with a solid swing and room on the frame to add muscle. Sure enough, Caissie looks to be about $ 70. In that case I'd buy the cheaper guy because they are both essentially lottery tickets at this point.

Lastly, I ran him through my price adjuster to neutralize age and team. Preciado came out a little higher than I thought, but still to the point that he probably only needs to make the top 100 list within the next 3-4 years to be higher than $50. Given that Fangraphs had him on the fringe this year, I'd say that's an fairly easy hill to climb (not a guarantee though). If he can get to Alek Thomas level of top 100 list (#20 to #40), you're looking at 4x. If he can ever crack the top 10 you'd be looking at 10x. That's with no major league performance, BTW.

You don’t need to explain to me the illogical bowman prospect market. There are many moments that don’t make sense, but this is how the market has been for a good amount of time.

Trevor hauver had like two good weeks last year and his stuff went insane. Whoever had hauver knew it was time to sell. I don’t buy these prospects when they do well for a week.

If a prospect is doing really well, there are a bunch of people that will be aware before you and the market will adjust quick. A lot of bowman prospects are gambling.

And yes, everyone gets the point that veterans in the big leagues are undervalued, but people collect what they want.

[88luisrising88]

Originally Posted by NewLondonWhaler

$50 for a mid tier top 100 big market prospect is about the norm now entry level. He has helium and that initial $50 can blow up anytime during the season. Even if he's performing lousy right now, he has plenty of time to straighten out this season. At 19, he's a hold. I would say he's far from a bust at this point. He has a while to be Nick Senzel.

That’s exactly my point.

[5pujols5]

Originally Posted by NewLondonWhaler

He's in the Cards system? I thought he was buried in the Rays system still. Did they pick him up Rule 5 or something?

I picked a /25 Auto of his several years ago and sat on it. Glad to see he's locking in finally.

Not completely sure how they acquired him, but he is still only 23 years old. Still plenty of time to contribute to the big club!

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Actually, you should understand the volatility. You don't just get to say "sample size" and waive away all bad performance. The importance of the stat, how far from normal, and how quickly it stabilizes matters. K% stabilizes quickly and 61% is waaaaaay out of the range of normal, even for only 36 PA.

Doing some quick and dirty math in my head I estimate that I would up Preciado's projected K% by about 7% based on those 36 PA. That's huge! It definitely warrants a downgrade of his prospect status. I'd probably drop him two notches on my system, although it would depend on where he was ranked prior. Fangraphs had him as a 50 but with only a 40 future hit. If that were the case I'd call him a 45+ now.

I also need to address the $50 BCA. I had three thoughts right in a row;

1) My first thought was, $50 for a 19 year old in full season ball for the Cubs? That's about the minimum for that profile.

2) My second thought was I just bought a Joey Gallo BCA refractor for $40. Gallo has more way upside than Preciado.

3) My third thought was what about Owen Caissie? I've seen him up close and he's a big strong dude with a solid swing and room on the frame to add muscle. Sure enough, Caissie looks to be about $ 70. In that case I'd buy the cheaper guy because they are both essentially lottery tickets at this point.

Lastly, I ran him through my price adjuster to neutralize age and team. Preciado came out a little higher than I thought, but still to the point that he probably only needs to make the top 100 list within the next 3-4 years to be higher than $50. Given that Fangraphs had him on the fringe this year, I'd say that's an fairly easy hill to climb (not a guarantee though). If he can get to Alek Thomas level of top 100 list (#20 to #40), you're looking at 4x. If he can ever crack the top 10 you'd be looking at 10x. That's with no major league performance, BTW.

How would you compare Preciado’s K% concern with someone like Colton Cowser, who has 21k in 55 PAs? Do you give a college guy like CC a bit more leeway since he has slightly more performance under his belt?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Austin Hendrick starting to hit. And he's cut down on the strikeouts lately too. Hopefully that's a sign of things to come.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

How would you compare Preciado’s K% concern with someone like Colton Cowser, who has 21k in 55 PAs? Do you give a college guy like CC a bit more leeway since he has slightly more performance under his belt?

I wouldn't give him leeway because of his college performance. I'd give him leeway because the K% is 37% compared to 61%. That's a huge difference. I think if you were expecting well below league average K% you're downgrading him a little, but nowhere near what you'd downgrade Preciado.