Topps 582 Montgomery Club

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Ah 2017 Prizm football. It was on the Panini website for over 1 month at $120/ea.

I know because I bought 1 case, sold it for $160/box, then went back and bought another case and sold that one for $180/box. Thought I was living the good life.

Yeah, that's right. I had 2 sealed cases of 2017 Prizm FOTL NFL and made a tidy $1200 profit

One guy pulled a Mahomes FOTL bronze and sold it for $600.

These past 5 years have been fun!

Yea Man. I have some 2017 Optic and Prizm horror stories. Prizm was really just getting on the map in 2017. Remember 2014 Prizm.....Black Friday sales here I think were $25 a BOX! LOL.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Ah 2017 Prizm football. It was on the Panini website for over 1 month at $120/ea.

I know because I bought 1 case, sold it for $160/box, then went back and bought another case and sold that one for $180/box. Thought I was living the good life.

Yeah, that's right. I had 2 sealed cases of 2017 Prizm FOTL NFL and made a tidy $1200 profit

One guy pulled a Mahomes FOTL bronze and sold it for $600.

These past 5 years have been fun!

You don't even want to know all the BKB FOTL products I had and sold for peanuts (as well as some FB ones).

Even planned to keep some as part of my sealed PC but couldn't pass up on "easy" money.

[clocsta2323]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

The consistent price hikes on Baseball 1000% started with Judge-Mania. Which was coming off the heels of Dak/Zeke which started the exploded FB prices.

I remember pissing and moaning that Heritage--which was on of the big 3 releases at the time---went from $55/box MSRP in 2017 to $80 a box. It was across all products that year.

I said and you can find this in that heritage thread 'Prices go up, once we buy into this madness it doesnt stop'. I was right. I wish I would have listened to myself and stocked up on products after seeing what todays prices are (which is to your point).

You are wrong.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

You don't even want to know all the BKB FOTL products I had and sold for peanuts (as well as some FB ones).

Even planned to keep some as part of my sealed PC but couldn't pass up on "easy" money.

Yeah tell me about it. Not being sarcastic when I say I left a million dollars on the table just on FOTL and online exclusives bought from 2017-mid 2020. Heck, just the stuff I opened alone, like 12 18-19 Prizm Basketball FOTL boxes, the difference between value from mid 2020 on sealed versus what I sold the box contents for was at least $200,000 difference. I think I purchased almost every single FOTL besides 2017-18 Flawless Basketball FOTL from close to when it started until they started the dutch auctions.

[clocsta2323]

You need to garden or something. Live life!

Originally Posted by mossoholic

It has not been this way since 2017? Lol. Almost everything in 2017 was at most 1.5 times MSRP. There were countless products under MSRP. The boom didn't start until Covid hit.

The next big change was right after Panini lost the licenses to Fanatics then started fixing the FOTL auctions last August. We hit a point today with Crown Royale FOTL where the sell out price was the highest percentage over big 3 presale hobby price in history. With 1 exception of maybe 2019-20 NT basketball FOTL because the floor price was $7500. Since Panini lost the licenses prices for almost all new hobby and FOTL have been sky high. The worst ROI it's ever been.

People think with 2022 football it will get better. Please. The bums are preselling 2022 Prizm Draft football for not much under what 2021 Prizm Draft is selling for. This year also has less autos. Every single 2022 football collegiate product should be MSRP. The first one available they are selling double MSRP. 2022 products will be the worst ROI with the lowest ceiling in history barring a QB getting red hot.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

You need to garden or something. Live life!

All I had to do was hold everything sealed wax I bought 2017 to mid 2020. From probably barely $100,000 investment I could be retired and living life being a multi millionaire. Instead I have to be miserable every day and live in regret.

[Ike123]

Last year bowman boxes were $199 on the topps site. This year for the same hobby boxes that will most likely contain a $5 pitcher auto they are $299. Thanks for the presale opportunity, but no thanks for the price hike. Bowman sapphire was $150, hopefully it doesn’t jump past $225 which would be the same 50% price jump.

[Cpdjoe77]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

All I had to do was hold everything sealed wax I bought 2017 to mid 2020. From probably barely $100,000 investment I could be retired and living life being a multi millionaire. Instead I have to be miserable every day and live in regret.

Sadly, post of the year lol.


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[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

You are wrong.

My W-2's and 1099's from 2017 v 2016 say you are. I have the data. I'll take a look at yours if you want to provide it.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

All I had to do was hold everything sealed wax I bought 2017 to mid 2020. From probably barely $100,000 investment I could be retired and living life being a multi millionaire. Instead I have to be miserable every day and live in regret.

Lol. So True. But hindsight is 20/20

[ObanMontecristo]

What I don’t understand is why Topps only allows 1 box per MC membership, for a widely released product. Don’t get me wrong, it’s way overpriced and I probably wouldn’t buy a lot, but I assume they’re printing these to the moon, so a limit of 1 box seems a little weird

[MotorboatJones]

Originally Posted by glassofwater

10 blasters seems like a better buy.

Definitely

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

You are wrong.

2017 was a big year. Are you thinking 2015 products with Kris Bryant, 2010 with Strasburg or 2012 with Harper?

[glassofwater]

i hope this is a sign of future things were we have first dibs to new releases. f1 dynasty next?.

[Archimedes]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

There were still tons of products in 2019 you could find under MSRP.

Until 2020 maybe late 2019 the big 3 usually had the lowest prices. Now they charge the most. Even though they all get a higher percentage of product at 80% of MSRP than other other groups. Makes perfect sense!

I don't understand why you're always complaining about MSRP. For hobby products, it's an artificial construct that doesn't mean anything. It seems like if some product is priced at $150 but you believe the MSRP is $100, you get furious. However, if Topps came out and said the MSRP is $200 on the same product, you'd be fine paying $150. Ultimately, supply/demand determines the cost of a product - not a manufacturer's suggestion.

[crownand]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Tomorrow for the public release:

Nah, I'd rather have a jumbo and get 3 autos. Is a jumbo $900? This Topps presale is 1 auto for $300. So we are rolling the dice for 1 auto and maybe a decent parallel for not 300 but 335 today for Monty club, no way Jose!!!

Eat my shorts Topps!!!

[cj828282]

Originally Posted by glassofwater

i hope this is a sign of future things were we have first dibs to new releases. f1 dynasty next?.

I was thinking the same thing but not sure how much Topps will have available for that product and would have to have at least approx. 5,000 boxes for each MC member to purchase 1 box. I don't think Topps made that many boxes of F1 Dynasty last year.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Archimedes

I don't understand why you're always complaining about MSRP. For hobby products, it's an artificial construct that doesn't mean anything. It seems like if some product is priced at $150 but you believe the MSRP is $100, you get furious. However, if Topps came out and said the MSRP is $200 on the same product, you'd be fine paying $150. Ultimately, supply/demand determines the cost of a product - not a manufacturer's suggestion.

How doesn’t MSRP mean anything? There groups getting all hobby for 80% of MSRP and then charging 2-10 times MSRP for virtually every hobby product are the ones making out. MSRP is usually available to find on Panini products. I think Topps it’s mostly hidden now. I would consider 20% higher than what Topps charge their distributors to be MSRP. It doesn’t matter what I think an MSRP should be. It is whatever it is.

What world are you living in? You honestly believe supply and demand has determined presale and initial market pricing anytime recently? Gtfu lol. If they want to determine the actual market value they would do what Fanatics has discussed doing in the future. List the product, contents and the amount of boxes. Give every buyer the chance to bid for an amount of boxes they want and amount they will pay per box. Then we will see what the real market is. If you think that for instance 2021-22 Crown Royale FOTL would have sold out today anywhere near the around $685 a box it did you’re on drugs. If you think 2021 National Treasures football hobby would sell out anywhere near $6000 a box you’re on drugs.

These price manipulators/distributors/specifically BO and breakers are determining hobby and FOTL prices. More times than not BO has put up an initial price based on nothing but greed and that’s what’s considered the market price. These people literally had a presale for 2021-22 Noir hobby basketball for $3750 a box a few weeks ago. There is not a single person on earth with half a brain that would pay $3750 for a box with 10 cards where 99.9% of the cards are worth less than that and there isn’t one 6 figure card in the entire product. Yet that was what BO says the market is. The 0.0001% determine the price and the rest of us get screwed one way or another. Thanks to the manipulation, ROI is by far the lowest it has ever been. In terms of percentage and overall money lost.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by cj828282

I was thinking the same thing but not sure how much Topps will have available for that product and would have to have at least approx. 5,000 boxes for each MC member to purchase 1 box. I don't think Topps made that many boxes of F1 Dynasty last year.

my guess on monty members is in the 8-10k range, based primarily on S1 first edition. Believe we said there were a little over 7k boxes, and they sold out to monty once the pack odds were posted, less a small amount that went to distributors. We know not every member purchased.

You can tweak the variables but i think it was something like 7400 boxes made, i’m not going back to validate, but pretty sure that’s close. Say 1000 boxes went to distributors (that’s probably high) and 75% of members purchased. That would get you 8.5k members.


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[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by Archimedes

I don't understand why you're always complaining about MSRP. For hobby products, it's an artificial construct that doesn't mean anything. It seems like if some product is priced at $150 but you believe the MSRP is $100, you get furious. However, if Topps came out and said the MSRP is $200 on the same product, you'd be fine paying $150. Ultimately, supply/demand determines the cost of a product - not a manufacturer's suggestion.

Exactly where he lost me earlier. MSRP is a footnote and nothing more.

The argument earlier on when this started was based on being able to get boxes of high tek for less than ‘MSRP’ when it released in 2017. Not the fact it settled 38% above cost of the previous year. ‘No heavy cost increase only started in the 2020 lockdowns’. That’s laughable. We didn’t go from $600 Bowman cases to $350 boxes overnight. The problem isn’t MSRP. The problem is products started jumping at release 30-40-50-60% YOY for the past half decade. People kept paying it. As I said it was a lobster in a boiling pot. You were dead before you knew what happened.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

How doesn’t MSRP mean anything? There groups getting all hobby for 80% of MSRP and then charging 2-10 times MSRP for virtually every hobby product are the ones making out. MSRP is usually available to find on Panini products. I think Topps it’s mostly hidden now. I would consider 20% higher than what Topps charge their distributors to be MSRP. It doesn’t matter what I think an MSRP should be. It is whatever it is.

What world are you living in? You honestly believe supply and demand has determined presale and initial market pricing anytime recently? Gtfu lol. If they want to determine the actual market value they would do what Fanatics has discussed doing in the future. List the product, contents and the amount of boxes. Give every buyer the chance to bid for an amount of boxes they want and amount they will pay per box. Then we will see what the real market is. If you think that for instance 2021-22 Crown Royale FOTL would have sold out today anywhere near the around $685 a box it did you’re on drugs. If you think 2021 National Treasures football hobby would sell out anywhere near $6000 a box you’re on drugs.

These price manipulators/distributors/specifically BO and breakers are determining hobby and FOTL prices. More times than not BO has put up an initial price based on nothing but greed and that’s what’s considered the market price. These people literally had a presale for 2021-22 Noir hobby basketball for $3750 a box a few weeks ago. There is not a single person on earth with half a brain that would pay $3750 for a box with 10 cards where 99.9% of the cards are worth less than that and there isn’t one 6 figure card in the entire product. Yet that was what BO says the market is. The 0.0001% determine the price and the rest of us get screwed one way or another. Thanks to the manipulation, ROI is by far the lowest it has ever been. In terms of percentage and overall money lost.

well change is coming, Houdini said this is the last year he can do 100 case break on bowman as blowouts allocation is getting cut as they sell more dtc.


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[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by BRob1

we’ll change is coming, Houdini said this is the last year he can do 100 case break on bowman as blowouts allocation is getting cut as they sell more dtc.


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Writing is on the wall for breaking IMO. They weeded out all the rippers in favor of breakers. Now they are going to attempt to get back into the rippers homes at the breakers price. Kinda brilliant move on their part as people won’t be able to help themselves.

Capitalism.

[cj828282]

Originally Posted by BRob1

my guess on monty members is in the 8-10k range, based primarily on S1 first edition. Believe we said there were a little over 7k boxes, and they sold out to monty once the pack odds were posted, less a small amount that went to distributors. We know not every member purchased.

You can tweak the variables but i think it was something like 7400 boxes made, i’m not going back to validate, but pretty sure that’s close. Say 1000 boxes went to distributors (that’s probably high) and 75% of members purchased. That would get you 8.5k members.


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If there are that many members it makes sense why the sets are basically worthless unless having a high profile rookie. The MC complete sets will be worthless unless the key rookies perform up to expectations.

[THE(NEXT)LEVEL]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

These price manipulators/distributors/specifically BO and breakers are determining hobby and FOTL prices. More times than not BO has put up an initial price based on nothing but greed and that’s what’s considered the market price. These people literally had a presale for 2021-22 Noir hobby basketball for $3750 a box a few weeks ago. There is not a single person on earth with half a brain that would pay $3750 for a box with 10 cards where 99.9% of the cards are worth less than that and there isn’t one 6 figure card in the entire product. Yet that was what BO says the market is. The 0.0001% determine the price and the rest of us get screwed one way or another.

^^^^^^^ This 100%. Total collusion on pricing.

[mnvikingstwins]

nicely covers the potential loss vs sealed prices