Stock market + alt assets plunging = ??? to your collecting or "investing"

[mallowciraptor]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Unfortunately, you’ll never see wax drop to an affordable price point for a solo buyer as long as breakers are a thing. Since they spread out their costs over multiple buyers, they can afford to spend more than just an average guy looking for something to rip. It’s a bummer for sure.

I guess plummet was probably the wrong word to use, as that will never happen. But at least to a level that is somewhat closer to the MSRP (certainly not to the 500%+ mark-up we're seeing currently). Even that might be wishful thinking though...

[BonVoyage]

Originally Posted by pewe

How long will the breakers have demand if their customers lost all their $$ in crypto and meme stocks? And lost their job / can't get the cool new job they quit their current job to go get?

People still gamble (which is essentially what breaking is) during recessions.

[OneSickDegen]

I've been hoarding cash most all this year and have been nibbling all the way down on BTC. I've scaled back my ballcard spending quite a bit and will probably buy more stonks. S&P down 17% so I think we may be getting close to a bottom in equities.

[JoeAdam]

It goes up and it goes down. This is just the first significant downturn in the past 12 years (not including the 1-month covid drop). Well capitalized investors and collectors will do fine. Gamblers will continue to gamble. Average people will look to other bills first and then come back once things settle down.

[mallowciraptor]

Originally Posted by Turborush

Don’t worry peeps! We will own nothing and be happy…

You will eat the bugs.
You will live in the pod.
You will watch the breaks.

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by pewe

How long will the breakers have demand if their customers lost all their $$ in crypto and meme stocks? And lost their job / can't get the cool new job they quit their current job to go get?

Degens gonnna degen. The spirit is strong with them and they will find a way to grind up another stab.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

People still gamble (which is essentially what breaking is) during recessions.

Some academic research on the topic, if you are interested: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3501160/

I do wonder if there is a double whammy this time, because folks were gambling with winnings from the stimulus inflating meme stocks and alt assets. And that accumulated wealth has officially turned negative, now.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by mallowciraptor

You will eat the bugs.
You will live in the pod.
You will watch the breaks.

The Great Reset is upon us

[premium1981]

You can do fine in any kind of market. Up, down, or sideways. You just have to adapt. Down markets are when people become wealthy.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Down markets are when people become wealthy.

Is that akin to the old joke: "The best way to create a small fortune is to start with a large one"

[Raleigh504]

Mostly have baseball in my collection/selling items so with the season going on, I am listing more items compared to the offseason. Overall sales have been good but a bit down this month (maybe cause I sold bigger cards already?). Mainly trying to turnover as much inventory as I can vs hold and hope for a few extra bucks.

Only purchases have been for PC or longer term holds (guys who are under 20 and in the minors that are very cheap or younger MLB guys).

As far as stock market and such. Holding most of my stocks or recently sold off some stocks that are high. In my mid 30s so when anything dips, I see it as a buying opportunity for the long term, sports cards included.

[Cheddar]

Originally Posted by pewe

Oh?!? What's going on there?

I expect there are more hobbyists in the baseball card world than most other sports... I wonder if that is the reason?

I think that's probably the case. Basketball, moreso than other sports, was really out of control. The "junk slab" experience we see in baseball where base Topps RCs in PSA 9 and 10 were going for hundreds of dollars was exponentially worse in basketball where 2nd and 3rd year Prizm base cards of players were in the thousands.

I consider myself a hobbyist who likes opening boxes and cases, but I usually end up selling everything that's extremely common. As soon as someone's 1st Draft Chromes hit $10-15 and Refractors hit $20-30, I sell them all except one for my PC. I think those are the cards that will get hit the hardest when the card market dips. Ultra-rare cards of the top players from the most desirable sets (Topps, Chrome, Bowman) will continue to hold and increase in value, in my opinion.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by premium1981

You can do fine in any kind of market. Up, down, or sideways. You just have to adapt. Down markets are when people become wealthy.

exactly. People who are able to adjust will come out ahead. Standing pat is never a bad thing in the long term (if you own blue chip stocks/cards/etc) since quality will go back up.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by Cheddar

I think that's probably the case. Basketball, moreso than other sports, was really out of control. The "junk slab" experience we see in baseball where base Topps RCs in PSA 9 and 10 were going for hundreds of dollars was exponentially worse in basketball where 2nd and 3rd year Prizm base cards of players were in the thousands.

I consider myself a hobbyist who likes opening boxes and cases, but I usually end up selling everything that's extremely common. As soon as someone's 1st Draft Chromes hit $10-15 and Refractors hit $20-30, I sell them all except one for my PC. I think those are the cards that will get hit the hardest when the card market dips. Ultra-rare cards of the top players from the most desirable sets (Topps, Chrome, Bowman) will continue to hold and increase in value, in my opinion.

Throw in the fact that 3rd best players on sub .500 teams cards were getting sold for more than HOF players because they had a great game vs. another bad team and the first two options were sitting out.

I never understood the basketball market prices and really just seemed like gambling and pump/dump.

[tdbaseballcards]

I've been hearing from other dealers at shows that they've been seeing a downturn this year. However, I personally have not seen this. Stuff I flip is still doing great. I'm not into slabs & super high end.

I will continue to buy without hesitation. If the prices go down, great! I will have some great cards at cheap prices to keep selling.

If I get to pick up some PC cards for cheap, even better.

I'm not concerned at all. If people are going to liquidate, I will be buying.

I bought stocks in March 2020 when the world was ending and I am still up over 100%. I'm continuing to watch the market for buying opportunities as it's a good time to buy some long term holds.

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by pewe

Some academic research on the topic, if you are interested: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3501160/

I do wonder if there is a double whammy this time, because folks were gambling with winnings from the stimulus inflating meme stocks and alt assets. And that accumulated wealth has officially turned negative, now.

Totally. Plus a lot of those assets still have value to give up. Beyond that, it's unclear if the conditions originating in 2008 which allowed things like crypto to flourish will be recreated. It's easy to overlook now, but the Fed's actions in 2008 were absolutely massive and unprecedented. Even with the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, it's hard to imagine another period of monetary policy as favorable for speculative investments.

[BeastMode27]

The only player I’ve bought consistently for the last 2 years has gone up 2-3x since the start of the season. Unless something I must have comes out of the woodwork (like it did the other day) , will be done buying for a while.

Looking to move some of the and keep some in general. A collection is ever evolving. Cardboard is nice, but so is money. With so many transactions the last couple of years, a slow down is welcomed.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by pewe

Is that akin to the old joke: "The best way to create a small fortune is to start with a large one"

Not exactly, but it obviously helps to be able to push money into the pot when the odds are stacked in your favor. But typically people do the opposite. Our society is full of people who spend everything they make when times or good (leaving nothing left) or people who are afraid to spend when the opportunity does present itself (market dips). Its the main reason why the "1%" are able to do so well. If the rest of the population had the same mindset the value wouldn't be the same. Its the fear and/or lack of discipline that allows others to do better. The reason is lack of fear and good discipline by the few.

At a job I previously had I had a co-worker constantly make comments about "big money" because my family likes to take really nice vacations. It took about 3 minutes for me to show him that our household incomes were identical but they chose to blow their money on drinks, cigarettes, and eating out every night. He literally stormed out of the room we were in because I made it abundantly clear that there was no difference between the two of us other than choices. Again, discipline. Nothing wrong with blowing your money, but don't get pissy when others are living a better life. It's a choice for almost everyone.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by tdbaseballcards

I've been hearing from other dealers at shows that they've been seeing a downturn this year. However, I personally have not seen this. Stuff I flip is still doing great. I'm not into slabs & super high end.

You are both right. The market is fine right now, even if its down some. You can't maintain the levels our hobby reached. Especially not with inflation doing what its doing where people have to spend a lot more money on their needs.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Not exactly, but it obviously helps to be able to push money into the pot when the odds are stacked in your favor. But typically people do the opposite. Our society is full of people who spend everything they make when times or good (leaving nothing left) or people who are afraid to spend when the opportunity does present itself (market dips). Its the main reason why the "1%" are able to do so well. If the rest of the population had the same mindset the value wouldn't be the same. Its the fear and/or lack of discipline that allows others to do better. The reason is lack of fear and good discipline by the few.

At a job I previously had I had a co-worker constantly make comments about "big money" because my family likes to take really nice vacations. It took about 3 minutes for me to show him that our household incomes were identical but they chose to blow their money on drinks, cigarettes, and eating out every night. He literally stormed out of the room we were in because I made it abundantly clear that there was no difference between the two of us other than choices. Again, discipline. Nothing wrong with blowing your money, but don't get pissy when others are living a better life. It's a choice for almost everyone.

100%

Those daily Starbucks runs add up quickly.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

100%

Those daily Starbucks runs add up quickly.

I had a similar conversation with a really good friend of mine about pizza. Long story short, that is his favorite food and he was spending $300+ a month on pizza alone. You can buy a pretty nice car for that monthly payment.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by pewe

A couple years ago, on the pre-market of the first day of the stock market rout generated by COVID, I posted a similar thread: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...71&postcount=1

At that time we saw a short term deep weakening, and then the Fed + Congress started pumping tons of $$$ into the pockets of every day Americans. Who turned around and immediately started "investing" those $$ into meme stocks, crypto, and other alt assets like sports cards.

Fast forward to today, and the Fed + Congress are wrangling with how to take all that stimulus out of the system, as they face down persistent high inflation. And we have the Fed rising rates into the mouth of a Bear - a highly unusual, and perhaps scary market setup. Remember in rosier downturn setups (i.e., no inflation to also fight) of 2000 and 2007 that it took nearly 3 years and 1.5 years to hit their bottom at -49% and -57% in the S&P vs our current downturn of 18% in the S&P since the Jan 3 peak.

The riskiest stock market assets, like tech stocks, are down tremendously from their peak in Nov '21. Crypto is falling off a cliff, Coinbase trading volume down 40% and warned in the unlikely event of bankruptcy that customers' coins could be seized by creditors, and with Tether becoming unpegged it even is making some question whether Bitcoin could drop a lot more in the rush for an exit that has taken down many other high flying assets (you get the terror some are spreading).

Where do we go from here in sports cards?

If you are a collector, are you pausing, hoping for cheaper days ahead? Or shrugging and ignoring?

If you are an "investor" do you have diamond hands? Or are you starting to wonder if paper hands would be better, and are going to cash (or plan to)?

Very complex and thoughtful set of observations & questions. I can most simply answer that I changed a lot of my behavior(s) back in 2021 as prices fell and PSA shut down. I expect that my behavior will continue as is while the economy works its way through whatever it is, which I am personally pessimistic about.

I am not an investor, I care less about the value of my cards. I started with X dollars in 2019 when I returned to the hobby, have not added any additional funds and B/S/T to solely further my collection of cards + Olympics memorabilia.

I am thankful for the drop in price a number of 80s / 90s rookies that I wanted to pick up before they blew up in 2020 and will continue to do so as my B/S/T activity continues.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I had a similar conversation with a really good friend of mine about pizza. Long story short, that is his favorite food and he was spending $300+ a month on pizza alone. You can buy a pretty nice car for that monthly payment.

$300+ a month on 'za? That's a lot of pies.

A lot of my tenants drive nicer cars than me, have better TVs, etc...

One said she gave her kids $200 every other week at to spend at the movie theater. Tickets, concessions, then a few hours at the arcade. I told her about Redbox (this was 10+ years ago) and helped her set up her first checking account. She had zero idea.

Goes back to educating ppl on the kinds of choices they really have. A lot of ppl just don't know (I'm sure there's a lot I don't know, either).

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I had a similar conversation with a really good friend of mine about pizza. Long story short, that is his favorite food and he was spending $300+ a month on pizza alone. You can buy a pretty nice car for that monthly payment.

A mans gotta eat!!!

[GlenSepper]

I wonder how many here lived through stagflation. It was a long haul that figuratively culminated with the Malaise Speech.

Maybe current economic conditions will be short-lived. Maybe not.