Patience and prospecting.

[hermanotarjeta]

Most people go into prospecting expecting a quick flip in as short of period of time as possible. Sometimes you sell at what you think is the peak and sometimes you regret it later.

What is the longest period of time between when you bought a card and actually sold it later for profit?

What is your mind set in terms of how long you are willing to hold?

Do you take into consideration the opportunity cost of holding a certain player’s cards?

With limited funds and a whole new set of bowman prospects coming out every four months with each new bowman product, there’s always someone new to invest in but if you don’t have enough cash you can miss out.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Most people go into prospecting expecting a quick flip in as short of period of time as possible.

Then I am not most people …..

[fungi2510]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Than I am not most people …..

A quick flip is not what most prospectors do. It is usually at least a 2-3 year project if you want to do it right. I have had cards for well over 5 years before I made a profit on some. There are so many variables that are relevant on this idea. I am not sure how you really "quick flip" prospects with regularity. I had few with Ricky Tiedemann earlier this year, but that was just dumb luck. Nothing planned, but he came out of the game on fire. I will take a $100 flip on a card any day. I won't hold out two more years for $200.

[JoeAdam]

Here is my general strategy.

I target 5-6 players per product max. I don't go for any of the top guys and in general skip most of the mid-range guys. I'm looking for base autos under $50, young and with potential to grow into power. I will buy multiple base and a couple nice colors of each player.

Prior to PSA charging $50+, I would send all of the grade worthy cards to PSA for $15/card. I would dump all of the non grade worthy cards in the BST thread to people looking for that specific prospect to help them out, usually in bulk.

I'm not in this for the long term and will look to sell once a hype train comes. This worked great for my 2020 class, had multiple guys get hyped and sell for good money for a base PSA 10 auto (Michael Harris, Everson Periera come to mind). I'd only hold an auto if I think a player is going to be generational, which I don't find very often.

It's pretty easy to tell when a kid isn't going to make it. I'll usually send them off to a consignment company and get what I can for them.

For me, it's a hobby and gives me a rooting interest in following a couple guys each year. Hard to make year over year profits this way.

[towerymt]

Lucas Giolito, I think 3+ years.

Trevor Story, zero days. I bought one BC auto at the end of spring training and listed it the day it arrived for a 3-day auction, when he debuted hitting a HR every day.

I don't really do prospecting, but those were my two extremes.

[Bambino22]

I just keep all my prospect cards with no plan. It's 95% Marco Luciano which I have no clue on value of collection. My understanding is its extremely likely all his cards will go down in value in the future. I sold a prospect auto Witt card once and then regretted it.

Impossible to make year to year profits but gives me that rooting interest, fun follows, and some degenerate gambling that I budget for.

[hermanotarjeta]

We’ve had many prospecting discussions over the years and with the higher buy in prices for your chrome autos, has the mentality shifted to a longer holding period for most people?

Is “selling at call up” really the best strategy today versus ten years ago?

Are people prospecting today for a longer term hold, ie, see how the player does in the majors for at least a few years?

Or is it still - sell when you have a profit and move on?

[rseve43]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

We’ve had many prospecting discussions over the years and with the higher buy in prices for your chrome autos, has the mentality shifted to a longer holding period for most people?

Is “selling at call up” really the best strategy today versus ten years ago?

Are people prospecting today for a longer term hold, ie, see how the player does in the majors for at least a few years?

Or is it still - sell when you have a profit and move on?

There are lots of ways to make money on cards, but the prospect market is overdue for a big correction.

Hype will always outsell performance, but the market has taken this to the point that tons of people are going to get burned badly.

When we have 10+ of the top-priced prospects selling like HOFers before they've even played a game, and guys who project to be nothing more than solid regulars outselling current MLB all stars, there's something wrong with valuations.

What would those guys have to do for values to actually go even higher?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by rseve43

There are lots of ways to make money on cards, but the prospect market is overdue for a big correction.

Hype will always outsell performance, but the market has taken this to the point that tons of people are going to get burned badly.

When we have 10+ of the top-priced prospects selling like HOFers before they've even played a game, and guys who project to be nothing more than solid regulars outselling current MLB all stars, there's something wrong with valuations.

What would those guys have to do for values to actually go even higher?

The prospect market lines up with the young mlb stars market which in turn lines up with the GOAT market.

The issue you're missing is the value of time (age). Think of these as stock options rather than stocks and it starts to make more sense.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rseve43

There are lots of ways to make money on cards, but the prospect market is overdue for a big correction.

Hype will always outsell performance, but the market has taken this to the point that tons of people are going to get burned badly.

When we have 10+ of the top-priced prospects selling like HOFers before they've even played a game, and guys who project to be nothing more than solid regulars outselling current MLB all stars, there's something wrong with valuations.

What would those guys have to do for values to actually go even higher?

Those guys essentially have to have the potential of being the next mike trout, card wise.

And being the next mike trout doesn’t take simply being able to sell for profit on call up.

You have to be patient and sit on the card to confirm that he is on track for an all time great career to achieve those 4-10x returns.

That means at least seven years+?

[tconte]

there’s always someone new to invest in but if you don’t have enough cash you can miss out.

It's not investing but more like gambling.

Longterm in this market, most will lose big.

[Boredlawyer]

The time when you see the big drop for lackluster prospects is when the new Bowman/Bowman Chrome/Draft hits. A guy like Erick Pena, who struggled in his first full season experienced a big drop when 2022 Bowman released.

[reddragonthe]

We'll see what happens if Jacob Gonzalez gets a bump here if he can hit AA or AAA pitching and people forget he's been trying to figure it out since 2017. If he does... that will be my longest.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Those guys essentially have to have the potential of being the next mike trout, card wise.

And being the next mike trout doesn’t take simply being able to sell for profit on call up.

You have to be patient and sit on the card to confirm that he is on track for an all time great career to achieve those 4-10x returns.

That means at least seven years+?

I don't think this is really true, especially for lower end types. I'll give you some evidence from my price index.

A typical really big year is going to be 2x, year over year (last year there were 5 out of 68 that eclipsed 2x, fairly normal). A huge year (MVP type, fly up to #1 overall prospect...etc) is going to be 3x. Sometimes the stars will align and it can get as high as 4x (maybe happened twice since I started tracking in the 2017-2018 offseason). I didn't track when Judge was going, but I'd bet he was in the 6x to 10x in that one season and 15x from offseason to mid season peak.

I'm reporting year over year numbers here. If you look at in season you have many more opportunities to buy low and sell high. So you might be able to to get a $100 card for $50 and sell it for $200 even without a change in talent just by taking advantage of variance. And if you buy in the offseason and sell in season, this can be compounded. Then it gets compounded again when you do get a change in talent.

Even if you're talking average price over a longish time frame (say, the offseason), you can pretty clearly get to 4x or better in two years and 10x within three.

Another caveat is I'm mostly tracking high priced players. My prospect list is 25 guys, all positional players, most in the top 100, if not top 50 overall prospects in the game. Low dollar guys can explode 10x or more in one year if they come from out of nowhere. Think Yermin Mercedes at one point last year. Or Akil Baddoo (maybe not 10x, but certainly more than 4x) if you want somebody who sustained it.

[Robles Fan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

What is the longest period of time between when you bought a card and actually sold it later for profit?

Five years. I bought a small handful of 2014 Bowman Chrome 1st auto's of Aristides Aquino around the same time the product was released. Then immediately sold them all in August 2019 when he broke into the big leagues and got off to that really hot start. Three of the base autos ended up selling for around $120; the one refractor auto that I had sold for $150.

[ScooterD]

This is year #11 for my 2011 Bowman Keegan Thompson stash. I could probably make a profit if I sold now

[regularp]

I don't know how anyone does baseball prospecting on the regular. WAY too much of a crapshoot, especially compared to basketball.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by regularp

I don't know how anyone does baseball prospecting on the regular. WAY too much of a crapshoot, especially compared to basketball.

That’s the fun part —— sure things would be boring

[rseve43]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The prospect market lines up with the young mlb stars market which in turn lines up with the GOAT market.

The issue you're missing is the value of time (age). Think of these as stock options rather than stocks and it starts to make more sense.

Good post and I agree with you that age/time has big value, which is what drives prices for prospects. What I’m saying is ‘being young’ is being confused for ‘having massive potential’ and that means youth is being grossly overvalued to a degree we haven’t really seen before.

To use your example, prospects are stock options rather than stocks, but they’re already priced higher than 99% of the actual stocks will ever go. The people buying to flip before call-up will do fine, but the ones actually holding are going to get clobbered on almost all these guys. The expectations are impossible to meet and people get bored quickly, so values will fall when guys don’t immediately produce.

[txrngr34]

My top priorities are guys I like AND what I'd consider undervalued, or are decent Cubs and I can stomach.

I couldn't afford top prospects in 2015, I definitely can't now, so I'm always looking for value pickups.

In general, though, if I run across any that I think are significantly undervalued, I'm interested in buying - not because my primary objective is to profit but because I love baseball and prospecting. It's fun to speculate on talent - specifically, I enjoy gambling on guys being able to outperform expectations.

Best example off the top of my head is someone like Chris Paddack. Liked the profile enough to believe he could make a splash, so during his TJS rehab I randomly picked up a few blue autos for less than $10 each - I want to say around $5 actually.

Around the hype train - right before his debut - I sold for around $80 or so, I think. Mainly because, by then, I knew the risk compared to the upside was higher than I originally believed (discounting the TJS). I only picked him up because of his upside at a very low price point.

I don't like to collect pitchers anymore than the next collector - or maybe I hate it less - but this is where it's easier to find value, and so my prospect autos are probably 60-70% pitchers.

For hitters, there is almost always value to be found in 4th rounders and lower. Almost anyone drafted in the 3rd or higher is either too pricey or overvalued.

[hermanotarjeta]

I've had trouble holding on to any prospects for more than three years. It seems like someone else always pops up that seems to be a better value, then I sell my previous guy and load up on the next one. Almost like compounding interest as long as the prospect prices rise.

[doowopbruce]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

That’s the fun part —— sure things would be boring

I enjoy following a player develop whose cards I own.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by doowopbruce

I enjoy following a player develop whose cards I own.

Me too Brother - it’s the main reason I don’t Collect Vintage. Every morning when I wake up, 1st thing I do is check ESPN; see how “my guys” did on the late night Games. There is emotional value in taking the ride along with the Players in my PC that is worth more than the potential financial gain

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by rseve43

Good post and I agree with you that age/time has big value, which is what drives prices for prospects. What I’m saying is ‘being young’ is being confused for ‘having massive potential’ and that means youth is being grossly overvalued to a degree we haven’t really seen before.

To use your example, prospects are stock options rather than stocks, but they’re already priced higher than 99% of the actual stocks will ever go. The people buying to flip before call-up will do fine, but the ones actually holding are going to get clobbered on almost all these guys. The expectations are impossible to meet and people get bored quickly, so values will fall when guys don’t immediately produce.

The only time someone will still have money on a long term prospect is if they bought a blaster/pack/box and pulled it themselves and then graded it. Realistically that is probably a very small percentage. Most likely they either got in on a player/team break or bought it on the market. But 100% agree with the statement.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by doowopbruce

I enjoy following a player develop whose cards I own.

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Me too Brother - it’s the main reason I don’t Collect Vintage. Every morning when I wake up, 1st thing I do is check ESPN; see how “my guys” did on the late night Games. There is emotional value in taking the ride along with the Players in my PC that is worth more than the potential financial gain

This is the reason I don't go hard into prospecting is that it gets hard to keep up with various players in the lower levels. After a year or two of owning their cards, I tend to sell cause I just forget about them.

This is where it would be nice if (maybe one exists) there was a website to follow the progress of various players. Almost like a portfolio where I can track on how they are doing at a glance (stats, advance stats, team/MiLB rankings, etc).