Are We In A Drought?

[GMRide27]

Card prices rapidly falling daily.

Trout 2011 Update PSA 10s can be had for $2100 now.

More bumped FS/FT threads than ever before.

Online "breakers" pricing cheapest of the last two years.

Jurassic Park Dominion reviews no doing too hot.

Or, are we all "buying the dip" at the moment?

Exciting times.....interesting times....

[kyle1707]

Just going back to normal

Now we need breaking to quite and box prices to drop

[clocsta2323]

There's literally dozens of threads about this subject, go contribute to one of those. A new thread is just spam really.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by GMRide27

Trout 2011 Update PSA 10s can be had for $2100 now.

I remember back in 2018 when these were $600-800... there was hot debate on whether they were waaaay too expensive. And that was when he was playing consistently better than he has for the last few years.

Sounds like a potential to fall quite a bit from where they are now.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Just going back to normal

Now we need breaking to quite and box prices to drop

This.

And we can’t get there soon enough, imo.

[splitrockgamer]

On this forum, we are in the buy the dip. In reality the card market will drop as quickly as it shot up.

If you were in early and didn't buy the rocket ship you're ok.
If you joined post 2019 you're going to lose a fair amount of paper value.

Again if you're a long term holder too you could get some good "investments" in these next couple years for the long hold.

I am just calling it like I see it, lots of bigger players on here putting up some big dog cards that have not been available, because they are smart enough to see the bigger crash that will come in this next 12ish months.

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by GMRide27

Trout 2011 Update PSA 10s can be had for $2100 now.

There are 10,000 gem mint slabbed copies of this card (5,706 PSA 10 & 4,295 BGS 9.5) and another 5,000 mint copies (3427 PSA 9's, 1566 BGS 9).

$2100 is still too much for a PSA 10 rookie of any player with that type of pop count. A market correction is going to be hard to take for some folks.

I look forward to finally adding a US175 PSA 10 to my collection in the sub $500 price.

[premium1981]

2022 Topps Chrome will revive the markets. All of them. With the profits people will make from their boxes/cases/breaks they will have enough money left over to take crypto back to record levels. Gary V will soon reveal that 2022 Topps Chrome will be greatest product ever. Stay tuned.

[tconte]

Originally Posted by pewe

I remember back in 2018 when these were $600-800... there was hot debate on whether they were waaaay too expensive. And that was when he was playing consistently better than he has for the last few years.

Sounds like a potential to fall quite a bit from where they are now.

I was one of the guys who said it would never sell for over $1000 on a regular basis.
Never understood the draw to buy common flagship cards at big prices.

Now I've seen it go under 2k. It will drop much more. Right? lol

[blackbears86]

I will NOT consider us to be in a drought until artificially inflated box/case prices drop.



Once they even COME close to being reasonable, we can talk drought.

[ewokpelts]

It’s not a drought. It’s a flood, and you are treading g water.

[SupermanBrandon]

It’s not rained here in Nashville for what feels like 2 weeks! We could use some water.


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[oldgoldy97]

If you busted on the scene in 2020-2022, just wait!

[StateEx]

I love collecting, but it's a hard time to buy since you can see the prices dropping. Beyond that, there are so many bubbles in the hobby it's hard to know which of them to plan for. Is it overproduction? Too many slabs? Prices for wax? At this point, I'm buying cheap wax for fun and from a short list of personal favorites, current and vintage.

[kyle1707]

I think fanatics made a massive mistake

Buying up everything at peak.

I think in 2-3 more years things will be even quieter

Which is a good thing for us imo

Buying at peak and not even looking back a few years to see what cards just were

It’s like they have no clue what they are doing

My concern is they will partner with gamblers and breakers because of this

[ThoseBackPages]

depends on what you are collecting.

[gmoney328]

Meanwhile, vintage just keeps plugging along....

[OneSickDegen]

Just my $0.02 but when the average bear ballcard boi gets his 401k cut in half and his employer announces layoffs then you'll see ballcards fall off a cliff. We are nowhere near being there yet. There just isn't anymore free covid money so the market is normalizing. Definitly not "drought" territory.

We have been a massive bull market for like 13 years and that's all starting to change. Discretionary spending will fall by the wayside when people are hoarding cash for emergency's

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by pewe

I remember back in 2018 when these were $600-800... there was hot debate on whether they were waaaay too expensive. And that was when he was playing consistently better than he has for the last few years.

Sounds like a potential to fall quite a bit from where they are now.

Those were the best times. I remember buying mine for under $300 with a 20% eBay coupon. Then selling it for $600 when there was either a 15% coupon or 15% Bucks offer. The arbitrage opportunity with those coupons and Bucks deals was incredible. And no tax! All you had to do was buy a popular card that traded frequently during a deal, then flip it during the next deal.

[MoreToppsPlease]

The flipper mentality encourages prices that are unsustainable and outrageously high to begin with.

Need to look past that stubborn mentality to find where prices should settle…which means prices have a lot longer to fall.

Plus those big interest rate boosts forthcoming are going to be killing prices some more soon.

[scotthenrichs]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

Just my $0.02 but when the average bear ballcard boi gets his 401k cut in half and his employer announces layoffs then you'll see ballcards fall off a cliff. We are nowhere near being there yet. There just isn't anymore free covid money so the market is normalizing. Definitly not "drought" territory.

We have been a massive bull market for like 13 years and that's all starting to change. Discretionary spending will fall by the wayside when people are hoarding cash for emergency's

Don't forget that "ballcard boi" lost half his savings in crypto in the last month or two and is sweating $6/gallon gas, he doesn't have the money for buying up all the Bowman Megas at every Target within a 150 mile vicinity anymore.

[ThoseBackPages]

no need to worry about the pellibois

[kevinandji]

I agree if you started in 2020 ouch! My regular visits to my LCS stopped due to Covid and upon reopening some great values. Fast forward and now my LCS is carrying as much, if not more, retail than hobby? This is how the hobby got shot to the moon. Lines and fights on Target/Walmart stock days for flippers and sprinkle some Vegas Dave/Gary Vee, online bots and the cesspool was just right to jump in and turn $20 blasters to $100 bills all day. Meanwhile my 2019 cases and below are way up, even with the downturn. I will let my kids worry what to do with them in the next two decades…by then who knows their worth but one thing I can say for certain…I did not overpay for any of it. Did I buy during the flipper boom, of course, I’m a collector, am I crying cause it’s dropping? Not a chance…I’m a grown man and live within my means..it’s a hobby not a business! Try to enjoy it…

[80s Kid]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

I think fanatics made a massive mistake

Buying up everything at peak.

I think in 2-3 more years things will be even quieter

Which is a good thing for us imo

Buying at peak and not even looking back a few years to see what cards just were

It’s like they have no clue what they are doing

My concern is they will partner with gamblers and breakers because of this

Fanatics made the deals when money was cheap. Inflation and higher interests rates just mean Fanatics made the deals at the right time, not wrong.

[scotthenrichs]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

no need to worry about the pellibois

WTF is a pellioboi? Are those the guys that had heart attacks on their Peleton cycles or something?