First Buzz: 2021-22 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League

[kyleuk21]

Originally Posted by Gin&Juice

Yeah, I wasn't distinguishing between lite and hobby. My point is that the value of parallels whether from lite or hobby is diluted by the fact that there are so many across the product. When someone goes to buy a colored Raebiger and has three different neon green options, the value of your neon green goes down regardless of whether it came out of lite or hobby.

Lite ONLY has numbered parallels other than the raywave. Hobby is filled with unnumbered parallels which is always significantly less valuable than numbered.

[reddragonthe]

Lets see if this comes through. Usually I just have a lot of junk on my own spreadsheet so I don't format it for others to see... so apologies if this isn't super clear to everyone.

This is based on pack odds and then the calculated/rounded assumption of 9k Hobby and 5k Lite cases produced.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

Lets see if this comes through. Usually I just have a lot of junk on my own spreadsheet so I don't format it for others to see... so apologies if this isn't super clear to everyone.

This is based on pack odds and then the calculated/rounded assumption of 9k Hobby and 5k Lite cases produced.

This is awesome. Do you happen to have a total expected parallels per case? Don't want to manually add them up right now

[reddragonthe]

Moral of the story- if you are of the opinion that this is a market that definitely will support this production volume, you do get MORE parallels in a case of Hobby (per box). If you believe that we are in a world of overproduction and people will give deference to the more classic colors (or you want more lower numbered stuff), it's not even close.

Yes - ignoring autos. 100% agree with anyone who wants autos that the equation is a bit different.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by kyleuk21

Lite ONLY has numbered parallels other than the raywave. Hobby is filled with unnumbered parallels which is always significantly less valuable than numbered.

My non-numbered lava has done really well. People really like those parallels. Starball does well anything not purple/gold ha

[reddragonthe]

Hobby: 144 (rounded) with 96 being from the top 3
LITE: 184 with 144 being from the top 3

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by The Accountant

My non-numbered lava has done really well. People really like those parallels. Starball does well anything not purple/gold ha

I think there's a chance... but I don't trust ANYTHING once volume starts picking up. I just see last year's parallels and it's depressing for what SHOULD be a better performing "rookie" class at lower volume.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

I think there's a chance... but I don't trust ANYTHING once volume starts picking up. I just see last year's parallels and it's depressing for what SHOULD be a better performing "rookie" class at lower volume.

Trust me, I'm aware LOL. People got so sick of last years class by the end. It was just a glut of UEFA remocks... chrome + sapphire + aoki + japan... this year will be worse unless they make changes. Then you had Bundesliga to chase Moukoko, Haaland, and Bellingham even more.

You can already add in paper. Then we'll get merlin, bundesliga all over again, and the new chrome product (champion cup?? or something) and now women's (which totally is fine).

Plus Panini is going make its mark soon too

[yiguiri2002]

It's all about price. No way I take a Lite case over a Hobby case.

2 Lite cases, though? That'll be a no brainer. Let's see if prices move around enough for this to happen.

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

It's all about price. No way I take a Lite case over a Hobby case.

2 Lite cases, though? That'll be a no brainer. Let's see if prices move around enough for this to happen.

Yes - I should clarify - at CURRENT PRICES LITE over Hobby is a no brainer.

For me, it's actually 1.5x Lite at the same price of 1 Hobby is where the choice starts to become a question.

(and I should clarify, at current prices my demand is exactly zero)

[MTBRM]

Originally Posted by The Accountant

Trust me, I'm aware LOL. People got so sick of last years class by the end. It was just a glut of UEFA remocks... chrome + sapphire + aoki + japan... this year will be worse unless they make changes. Then you had Bundesliga to chase Moukoko, Haaland, and Bellingham even more.

You can already add in paper. Then we'll get merlin, bundesliga all over again, and the new chrome product (champion cup?? or something) and now women's (which totally is fine).

Plus Panini is going make its mark soon too

Also SC UEFA Chrome in addition to all of those lol

Already got Jade too instead of Japan this year, wouldn't be surprised at another Aoki or something either.

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by MTBRM

Also SC UEFA Chrome in addition to all of those lol

Already got Jade too instead of Japan this year, wouldn't be surprised at another Aoki or something either.

Japan was apparently still in the plans (out sometime this fall) in ADDITION to Jade. No idea on Aoki.

[kingb22]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

Hobby: 144 (rounded) with 96 being from the top 3
LITE: 184 with 144 being from the top 3

So if you focus on outside of the top 3, you get:
Hobby - 48
Lite - 40

Prices as of now (on ebay, not Big 3):
Hobby - $200 (although much of the listings are $225 - not sure on case pricing) but 12 boxes = $2400
Lite - $110 (low of $105 - lots of listings $115-$120). So 16 boxes = $1760

So Hobby is $50 per "rare" parallel
Lite is $44 per "rare" parallel

I suppose the question is whether extra autos are worth $6 extra per parallel .. which if my math is right equates to $300ish per case? (ie 48 x $6 = $288). The one missing data point is how many autos/case in Lite - if you assume for example 4 then each auto in Hobby has to be worth ~ $36 to make it worthwhile. If it's 8 in Lite what would jump to $72, which is much tougher.

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by kingb22

So if you focus on outside of the top 3, you get:
Hobby - 48
Lite - 40

Prices as of now (on ebay, not Big 3):
Hobby - $200 (although much of the listings are $225 - not sure on case pricing) but 12 boxes = $2400
Lite - $110 (low of $105 - lots of listings $115-$120). So 16 boxes = $1760

So Hobby is $50 per "rare" parallel
Lite is $44 per "rare" parallel

I suppose the question is whether extra autos are worth $6 extra per parallel .. which if my math is right equates to $300ish per case? (ie 48 x $6 = $288). The one missing data point is how many autos/case in Lite - if you assume for example 4 then each auto in Hobby has to be worth ~ $36 to make it worthwhile. If it's 8 in Lite what would jump to $72, which is much tougher.

.8 autos/case in Lite.

EDIT - but I would add outside the top 3 for hobby includes a LOT that are non-numbered. Traditionally (traditions can change) these lag far behind what you might expect given the (relative) rarity. Even behind their similar color (but less rare in some cases) cousins.

[gomiamigo]

Pulled a blue/gold Mbappe out of a 2 box rip at LHS. Not bad.

[psw135]

Not sure if it's the right place to post this, but I pulled this from 1 of 2 lite boxes I opened at my lcs today. First /5 I've opened in a couple years of doing this so I was pretty excited with it.

Also - I've never gotten huge into Topps Chrome but really enjoyed both boxes I opened of this, decent overall haul too.

Last thing is if anyone has ideas on comps here, I'd really appreciate any input. Was hard to find anything remotely comparable, though an /5 Topps paper (not chrome) of this seemed to go for 170 a bit ago. In general I enjoy holding but am always interested/looking/open.

[YayNJ]

anyone know why Gavi's cards don't have the topps logo top left? Paper and Chrome?

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by psw135

Not sure if it's the right place to post this, but I pulled this from 1 of 2 lite boxes I opened at my lcs today. First /5 I've opened in a couple years of doing this so I was pretty excited with it.



Also - I've never gotten huge into Topps Chrome but really enjoyed both boxes I opened of this, decent overall haul too.



Last thing is if anyone has ideas on comps here, I'd really appreciate any input. Was hard to find anything remotely comparable, though an /5 Topps paper (not chrome) of this seemed to go for 170 a bit ago. In general I enjoy holding but am always interested/looking/open.

$500-$750 seems like a good range, maybe even a but higher. Nice pull!



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[Ray V]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

$500-$750 seems like a good range, maybe even a but higher. Nice pull!



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I'll easily take the under on that!
- Market is down considerably from mid May
- Liverpool fans don't want it cuz he left for Bayern
- Bayern fans don't want it cuz he's in a Liverpool kit

[BiggNuttz]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

$500-$750 seems like a good range, maybe even a but higher. Nice pull!



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I am sorry, but there is no way that a 2021-22 Mane Red /5 card is worth any more than $200~$300 at the absolute maximum as a raw card. That sale of the Red Mane at $1,100 was an extremely lucky sale for the seller and a massive outlier (not to mention that it was a 2019-20 card which is very different). For a better comparison, there was a 2021-22 Chrome Lewandowski Red Wave 5/5 that just sold for $460 raw with Probstein a few days ago. Figure mane at about 50% of that so ~$250.

Regards

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by Ray V

I'll easily take the under on that!
- Market is down considerably from mid May
- Liverpool fans don't want it cuz he left for Bayern
- Bayern fans don't want it cuz he's in a Liverpool kit

Originally Posted by BiggNuttz

I am sorry, but there is no way that a 2021-22 Mane Red /5 card is worth any more than $200~$300 at the absolute maximum as a raw card. That sale of the Red Mane at $1,100 was an extremely lucky sale for the seller and a massive outlier (not to mention that it was a 2019-20 card which is very different). For a better comparison, there was a 2021-22 Chrome Lewandowski Red Wave 5/5 that just sold for $460 raw with Probstein a few days ago. Figure mane at about 50% of that so ~$250.

Regards

Well, it's on ebay now, so we'll find out soon.

For more reference, a gem Mane colorblast sold for $1142 on 5/4. Two more just sold for $998 and $738 (back to back days, not a good idea!). So yes, Mane market is down a good 25%, but the sky hasn't exactly fallen on his prices. This red wave is also /5 only vs. the others /10.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Well, it's on ebay now, so we'll find out soon.

For more reference, a gem Mane colorblast sold for $1142 on 5/4. Two more just sold for $998 and $738 (back to back days, not a good idea!). So yes, Mane market is down a good 25%, but the sky hasn't exactly fallen on his prices. This red wave is also /5 only vs. the others /10.

on the other hand the 1,100 sale is a red, not a red wave. wave not as popular.


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[MTBRM]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

anyone know why Gavi's cards don't have the topps logo top left? Paper and Chrome?

Yeah, paper set doesn't have the logo. Pedri doesn't either.

[MallcopKJ]

Pulled this the other day from a box. Blue Wave /75



Any thoughts on value? Love this kids potential albeit the injuries.

[YayNJ]

Originally Posted by MallcopKJ

Pulled this the other day from a box. Blue Wave /75



Any thoughts on value? Love this kids potential albeit the injuries.

$175-200 or so.