Who Will Be the #1 Prospect In 2023

[JRX]

What's wild is Tatis still has less than 2 full years of plate apperances

[PDCCollectibles]

Maitan, Rutherford and Dominguez of course... Remember Rutherford and Maitan prices a few years ago

[paul2020]

Originally Posted by Jman330

Has anyone heard anything about Corbin Carroll? Team isn’t talking and only read that a reporter wrote he had Covid..Just strange to me they are so tight lipped.. Praying this isn’t shoulder related..Going on 10 days since he last played and not a word��#@♂️.Thanks��

This is standard protocol for covid in MILB & MLB.

[BigSlim16]

My guy hasn't been mentioned yet. I'm not sure if that makes me a genius or an idiot

[FreshOutThePack]

Volpe

[vwnut13]

Originally Posted by PDCCollectibles

Remember Rutherford and Maitan prices a few years ago

Yet probably less than the average Bowman Chrome autograph today.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

He's essentially a high school senior with two months of excellent production. If he had a k rate of 12% I'd think differently..hes basically a top high school outfield prospect for the 2022 draft, which is about as high risk as you can get. Aside from some international signing like Cristian Vaquero.

He's not basically a HS OF prospect. The reason HS OF prospects are risky is that they haven't produced results in the minors. Much like international guys - same thing. You never really know what you have until the get to rookie ball, or better yet A ball.

Chourio has excelled in 3 months in A ball, at a very young age. Is there risk? Absolutely - there always is. But he's not extremely high risk, and comparing him to a HS OF is not accurate (unless speaking solely about his age).

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by JRX

Name one minor leaguer to sustain an over .400 babip over their entire minor league career.

Most guys don't spend their entire minor league career in the low minors.

[rwperu34]

MLB.Com Update, removing guys who are likely to graduate and ignoring pitchers;

1) Alvarez
2) Carroll
3) Henderson
4) Walker

IMO there's a clear line here. Call the top 4 Grade A and the next group A-.

5) Volpe
6) Luciano (he's a B+ for me)
7) Mayer
8) Lawlar

I'd add Henry Davis and Eziquel Tovar to that group while removing Luciano. Then the next bunch would be B+. Of the B+ group, the guys with the best shot at getting to A-;

Veen, Hassell, Chourio.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Most guys don't spend their entire minor league career in the low minors.

Not if we’re going to be buying them!

[Cardisseur]

Corbin <3

Glad I held my blue auto

[Jman330]

Don’t know if mentioned but Corbin Carroll had his 2nd rehab game yesterday and tonight,,Looks like the young man kicked Covid’s butt and hasn’t missed a step…Last night he went 1 for 3 with a walk and tonight he went 2 for 3 (one was a hr) and a walk…Looks like he hasn’t missed a beat which is welcome news for us Corbin believers����Hopefully he’ll be back this weekend in Amarillo����

[Jman330]

Originally Posted by Cardisseur

Corbin <3

Glad I held my blue auto

I can’t see in any world where Alvarez finishes ahead of Corbin 👍Corbin will be the #1 when season /before next season.. Ive watched every game he’s played and he is special..Can’t wait for the world to see him in the Futures game..👍

[Drake1978]

Originally Posted by Jman330

Don’t know if mentioned but Corbin Carroll had his 2nd rehab game yesterday and tonight,,Looks like the young man kicked Covid’s butt and hasn’t missed a step…Last night he went 1 for 3 with a walk and tonight he went 2 for 3 (one was a hr) and a walk…Looks like he hasn’t missed a beat which is welcome news for us Corbin believers����Hopefully he’ll be back this weekend in Amarillo����

Corbin is one of the things that helped me get over losing the Padres. I love watching him play and will totally miss him when he gets called up.

[Mazman2727]

This guy! Got these tonight before his rehab start.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Jman330]

Originally Posted by Mazman2727

This guy! Got these tonight before his rehab start.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Man, That’s sweet!Congrats!👍👍 Kid is a special talent… You saw him that home run then!👍👍Not a bad rehab so far lol👍👍👍

[Jman330]

Originally Posted by Drake1978

Corbin is one of the things that helped me get over losing the Padres. I love watching him play and will totally miss him when he gets called up.

I get where you’re coming from👍 IMO, #1 Prospect this winter/spring and will be turning heads for sure with his gifted talents👍👍

[Jman330]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I was unimpressed with Aaron Judge in the minors. When I saw him in the AFL he looked like a big galoot with warning track power. He completely revamped his swing between then and his MLB debut.

J-Rod went to A+ at 18 and absolutely crushed it while Tatis went to AA at 18...and still neither was #1 overall.

Nobody is saying that a hitter can't succeed with a high(ish) minor league K-rate. What we're saying is it adds risk to the profile.

My biggest reservation with Chourio is number of plate appearances. He's only got 228. Even within his dominance of those 228 PA there are some warning signs. So no chance to be ahead of Walker/Alvarez/Gunnar...etc.

Agree 100%👍

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Not sleeping on him. I just don't see a way he's #1 heading into 2023. He can get there eventually.



On top of all this (which I agree with wholly), wRC+ is not a great stat for minor leaguers...regardless of how strong that list is.

Chourio is now #2 on the Baseball America midseason top prospect list.

Still don't see a way?

[sportzluvr1]

def vaughn grissom

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

Chourio is now #2 on the Baseball America midseason top prospect list.

Still don't see a way?

No way he's a better prospect heading into next season than Jordan Walker, Gunnar Henderson, and Corbin Carroll. Those guys are similar level of talent and starting their big league career in 2023.

Speaking of Carroll, I got a live look this weekend and soon will share my thoughts, as well as some thoughts on prospects in general.

[rwperu34]

A Live Look At Corbin Carroll

Let me preface this by saying that when it comes to batting I trust the stats far more than my eyes (or anyone's, for that matter). The stats say Corbin Carroll is a Grade A prospect so he's a grade A prospect. I feel the need to qualify that because until I started gathering my thoughts for this writeup I hadn't realized what a disaster of a game he had. I was supposed to see him twice, but he wasn't in the lineup the first game....and it got rained out after five batters anyways.

Batting: He's a taker, for sure (I've got more thoughts on this for another thread). First two PA drew walks going 3-1 and 3-2. Third AB went full before he finally swung at the 17th pitch he'd seen and hit a GB right at the SS with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out (they were not able to turn the DP). Struck out swining at 3 fastballs the last two times up. His swing did not look fluid, even for Carroll (he's not very fluid to begin with). The most concerning thing is he did appear to have an issue with velocity. First K the guy was zinging it in there at 96-98 and he was behind it. The 2nd K was a lefty with a tough arm angle at 92-93. Final line, 0 for 3, 2 bb, 2 k.


Defense: The one ball that was somewhat of a challenge I had five people standing up in front of me, so I missed the all important beginning of the play. He got to it, but Albuquerque has one of those stupid hills in CF and it ate him up causing him to miss the ball. He's got the speed, but I don't think his instincts are great. Overall I'd say my original assessment still holds...Alek Thomas is the CF, Carroll gets moved. He also committed an error. It was an SB attempt and he was right where he was supposed to be backing up and he just whiffed. I don't know if they gave it to him, but the runner was clearly going to hold.

Running: Remember that 1st and 3rd where the Isotopes couldn't turn the deuce? Yep, I got to see Carroll at full blast. I don't think he's quite as fast as Buxton or Quinn were when I saw them in the AFL all those years ago, but I do think he's a tick faster than Alek Thomas. Maybe call Carroll a 70 and Thomas a 65.

Arm: Outfield arm is the most difficult to rate in one game because you need them to make a strong throw. If the throw I saw was full bore he's about average there, but it might not have been. Of course a strong arm isn't the only way to prevent runners from advancing. Getting to the ball quickly is important to, and he excelled there on his one opportunity. His break was a little slow but he got up to full speed, ran straight to the spot, and did a good job reading the hop.

Physique: He's a little bigger than when I saw him in the AZL, but ultimately I'm not going to be able to get past this. He does not look like Mookie Betts or Jose Altuve in the slightest. There is simply no way I could rate him an A+ (#1 overall in a typical year). In fact I'd say he's closer to an A- than #1 overall. This is a fairly weak year for prospects and that's the only reason he's in the mix. This reminds me of Andrew Benintendi, who was also in the mix for #1 overall with a small stature in a weak year.

Conclusion: I'll still have him at Grade A (top 5 in a typical year), even if on the border. I see the modern version of Andrew Benintendi here. He'll hit for a good average (.260-.270 nowadays), draw some walks, and hit for decent power (maybe 20 HR, true talent) with lots of K. There's a huge difference if he misses his HR by 5 in either direction (obviously), but I think we're looking at a guy with an OPS+ in the 110 to 120 range with good corner OF defense.

Hobby Implications: I think long term he's going to be a hobby disaster. No, I don't think that about all prospects. He's going to be a long term starter though so he should have some hot streaks. In the short run I think there is room for runup in his price. He was barely half way to 75% of where Adley and Torkelson were last November (ie Grade A, adjusted for lower overall prices). I think he's up a little since my last update, but there is still a long way to go. Then he'll get a boost in the runup to Opening Day, just like everybody. Right now I'd say he's a safe flip. I would not want to hold him through the end of April though.

[rwperu34]

A few more prospect notes from the game:

Ryan Vilade-While at this point he's more of a "prospect", he was a fan favorite. If your looking for someone who might be able to punch above his weight, this might be a good place to start. The girls were screaming at him (some guys too) and he was the only player that they were hounding for autographs. Might want to stash some of his cards in case he starts a boy band or something.

Stone Garrett-He's got a decent swing and top notch physique. He'll probably get a look in The Show at some point. Had I posted this on Monday that would have been insight. Instead it's reporting what already happened. I could see him as a fringe starter or wrong half of a platoon for a few years.

Ryne Nelson-My focus was on Carroll the whole night, so I didn't really see his pitches...only the numbers on the radar gun. He sat at 93-96, topping at 96. He hit 92 and even 91 a couple of times late, but his last fastball was 95. No doubt above average velocity for a starter. He had two other distinct pitches (87-88 and 82-83). Despite throwing 70% or more fastballs the only solid contact was on his junk...including a homerun. I don't follow pitching prospects very closely, so after a couple of innings I looked him up. Sure enough, he was #5 on the D'backs list coming into the year.

[brios8]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

A Live Look At Corbin Carroll

Let me preface this by saying that when it comes to batting I trust the stats far more than my eyes (or anyone's, for that matter). The stats say Corbin Carroll is a Grade A prospect so he's a grade A prospect. I feel the need to qualify that because until I started gathering my thoughts for this writeup I hadn't realized what a disaster of a game he had. I was supposed to see him twice, but he wasn't in the lineup the first game....and it got rained out after five batters anyways.

Batting: He's a taker, for sure (I've got more thoughts on this for another thread). First two PA drew walks going 3-1 and 3-2. Third AB went full before he finally swung at the 17th pitch he'd seen and hit a GB right at the SS with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out (they were not able to turn the DP). Struck out swining at 3 fastballs the last two times up. His swing did not look fluid, even for Carroll (he's not very fluid to begin with). The most concerning thing is he did appear to have an issue with velocity. First K the guy was zinging it in there at 96-98 and he was behind it. The 2nd K was a lefty with a tough arm angle at 92-93. Final line, 0 for 3, 2 bb, 2 k.


Defense: The one ball that was somewhat of a challenge I had five people standing up in front of me, so I missed the all important beginning of the play. He got to it, but Albuquerque has one of those stupid hills in CF and it ate him up causing him to miss the ball. He's got the speed, but I don't think his instincts are great. Overall I'd say my original assessment still holds...Alek Thomas is the CF, Carroll gets moved. He also committed an error. It was an SB attempt and he was right where he was supposed to be backing up and he just whiffed. I don't know if they gave it to him, but the runner was clearly going to hold.

Running: Remember that 1st and 3rd where the Isotopes couldn't turn the deuce? Yep, I got to see Carroll at full blast. I don't think he's quite as fast as Buxton or Quinn were when I saw them in the AFL all those years ago, but I do think he's a tick faster than Alek Thomas. Maybe call Carroll a 70 and Thomas a 65.

Arm: Outfield arm is the most difficult to rate in one game because you need them to make a strong throw. If the throw I saw was full bore he's about average there, but it might not have been. Of course a strong arm isn't the only way to prevent runners from advancing. Getting to the ball quickly is important to, and he excelled there on his one opportunity. His break was a little slow but he got up to full speed, ran straight to the spot, and did a good job reading the hop.

Physique: He's a little bigger than when I saw him in the AZL, but ultimately I'm not going to be able to get past this. He does not look like Mookie Betts or Jose Altuve in the slightest. There is simply no way I could rate him an A+ (#1 overall in a typical year). In fact I'd say he's closer to an A- than #1 overall. This is a fairly weak year for prospects and that's the only reason he's in the mix. This reminds me of Andrew Benintendi, who was also in the mix for #1 overall with a small stature in a weak year.

Conclusion: I'll still have him at Grade A (top 5 in a typical year), even if on the border. I see the modern version of Andrew Benintendi here. He'll hit for a good average (.260-.270 nowadays), draw some walks, and hit for decent power (maybe 20 HR, true talent) with lots of K. There's a huge difference if he misses his HR by 5 in either direction (obviously), but I think we're looking at a guy with an OPS+ in the 110 to 120 range with good corner OF defense.

Hobby Implications: I think long term he's going to be a hobby disaster. No, I don't think that about all prospects. He's going to be a long term starter though so he should have some hot streaks. In the short run I think there is room for runup in his price. He was barely half way to 75% of where Adley and Torkelson were last November (ie Grade A, adjusted for lower overall prices). I think he's up a little since my last update, but there is still a long way to go. Then he'll get a boost in the runup to Opening Day, just like everybody. Right now I'd say he's a safe flip. I would not want to hold him through the end of April though.

Nice write up!

Question for you.
Do you think Jordan Lawlar and/or Marcelo Mayer should be better prospects than him once they have another year of experience?

Would you rather buy (at current prices) any of these guys before Carroll?

Anthony Volpe
Jasson Dominguez
Noelvi Marte
Marco Luciano


These are the 6 prospects I have been investing in

[clocsta2323]

Originally Posted by brios8

Nice write up!

Question for you.
Do you think Jordan Lawlar and/or Marcelo Mayer should be better prospects than him once they have another year of experience?

Would you rather buy (at current prices) any of these guys before Carroll?

Anthony Volpe
Jasson Dominguez
Noelvi Marte
Marco Luciano


These are the 6 prospects I have been investing in

Anyone getting into Carroll now is way late to the party.