The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[jjrpilot]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

For the rest of my life. I will never forget that 6 month period when

10-20 grown men would sit at target everyday from 11 am to 3 pm waiting for the card lady to show

80 percent in sweat pants and flip flops ….

Ahh the ole' days...

[Chrominator]

Originally Posted by tconte

Not for me. I assume raw is PSA 8 in my book, maybe worse depending on scans.

7.5-8.5 in my book

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

If the dips keep dipping
The dips keep buying
Dollar coast average that sumbeach.

That’s like catching a falling knife.

One could keep on buying new lows, and end up with 10 tatis at a dollar cost average close to $3000.

If he gets hurt again and the economy continues to tank, you’re just carrying an even heavier bag if they drop to $1000 apiece.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I made a FS thread in the BST where I was asking PSA 9 Ebay prices for raw cards - the only people who replied ridiculed me for asking for so much.

are you selling paper of chrome?

what I've seen on ebay sales:

raw chrome > psa 9 chrome (particularly when the trust the seller hasn't searched the cards)

psa 9 paper >= raw paper

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by tconte

Not for me. I assume raw is PSA 8 in my book, maybe worse depending on scans.

My point was more that nobody wants slabbed PSA 9 (or PSA 8) modern cards.

The investors want PSA 10's.

The collectors & set-builders generally want raw cards.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Wew.. these are down to 3000 usd. Honestly have never looked I've never been a Tatis buyer.

Soto has been down to as low as 3800 recently. Seems like Mr. Tatis has some room down below.

Pumpers and flippers still upset they didn’t sell last year at the peaks.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by mfw13

My point was more that nobody wants slabbed PSA 9 (or PSA 8) modern cards.

The investors want PSA 10's.

The collectors & set-builders generally want raw cards.

I pick up PSA 9s then they are cheaper than raw. As a collector, I don't mind the PSA 9 discount to raw (usually on chrome). Although some day I do want to free them from that unwieldly holder. But I haven't got the courage to try, yet.

[k13]

Originally Posted by mfw13

My point was more that nobody wants slabbed PSA 9 (or PSA 8) modern cards.

The investors want PSA 10's.

The collectors & set-builders generally want raw cards.

I just buy low numbered psa 9's of the same card for the price of base psa 10.

[SaveMeTheGum]

What a great time to be buying!

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

What a great time to be buying!

The bottom won’t be in until wax starts to tank.

We haven’t seen the bottom yet.

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The bottom won’t be in until wax starts to tank.

We haven’t seen the bottom yet.

That's ok, I'm only buying things that long term will be fine

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Were at the beginning stages of a global economic downturn and inflation is becoming a big issue everywhere. We have an ongoing pandemic, supply chain disruptions, crypto currency meltdowns, a major war in Europe, and a civil war starting in the US. The worst is yet to come.

Baseball cards are luxury goods (not essential to life but highly desired). In inflationary times, the purchasing power of the dollar decreases and the cost of everything else increases. To combat this, the demand for inferior goods increases since the dollar cant buy as much. The majority of spenders and casual collectors are impacted heavily. The need for food, shelter, transportation, etc remove any thoughts of casually collecting - the money just isn't there.

For folks who are fortunate enough to not be impacted by the economy, they will continue to buy. The high end market will only see decreases to the point where the rich see a value play and start scooping everything up because they simply have the resources to do so. Casual collectors will start fire selling key parts of their PC to help offset the purchasing power crunch.

I also personally believe there is a large portion of the hobby that got a little too excited with the valuations they were seeing during COVID peak pricing and, in turn, overextended themselves with high priced wax and singles (even more so in Football).

I hope nobody on here is affected too much. It will be interesting to watch or sure.

I think a lot of casual collectors sold during the pandemic bubble. The supply was absorbed by investors and speculators. Prices of cards are too high now to be casually collected.

I think dealers, speculators and investors will be pressured more and more as time goes on to sell at a loss. Dealers will resist selling at a loss until they absolutely have to -- to pay bills or going out of business. Speculators should have already sold by now and taken a loss. Investors will sell at a loss to fund other investment opportunities.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The investors want PSA 10's.

We're called "flippers"

I like PSA-10s because everything is for sale for the right price, and other people like 10s. If other people only like 10s because other people like 10s, then it could come crashing down some day.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by towerymt

More "collections" will be sold this year than in any recent year. People will get out.

If you're a long time collector and you sat on your collection through the pandemic bubble but finally chose to sell off post bubble, you're an idiot -- plain and simple.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

That’s like catching a falling knife.

One could keep on buying new lows, and end up with 10 tatis at a dollar cost average close to $3000.

If he gets hurt again and the economy continues to tank, you’re just carrying an even heavier bag if they drop to $1000 apiece.

This hobby isn’t the place for soft hands.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by pewe

I pick up PSA 9s then they are cheaper than raw. As a collector, I don't mind the PSA 9 discount to raw (usually on chrome). Although some day I do want to free them from that unwieldly holder. But I haven't got the courage to try, yet.

I think it really depends on the card. Something like Ohtani 2018 series 2 chrome has a gem rate of well north of 90%. There's absolutely no reason a PSA 9 should go for more than a raw card that presents as clean.

[tyrith]

For anything chrome that Topps has produced the last year or two, I would value a 9 north of raw; half the cards come out of the back like they were run through an old paper shredder.

[TrickyNick]

Originally Posted by PumpnDumpling

Chaz Roe, u definitely mentioned him

I thought we were talking about former UMass star, Lou Roe.

[sickmantz]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

For the rest of my life. I will never forget that 6 month period when

10-20 grown men would sit at target everyday from 11 am to 3 pm waiting for the card lady to show

80 percent in sweat pants and flip flops ….

Good call. They should have absolutely worn suits.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Is there a link to this “Price Index”?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve not seen 1 actual detail about this “price index”. I’ve seen Peru mention it likely 100 times, but no details, specifics, etc.

[SaltyCracker]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve not seen 1 actual detail about this “price index”. I’ve seen Peru mention it likely 100 times, but no details, specifics, etc.

It’s hidden in his “secret sauce”.

[clocsta2323]

Originally Posted by pewe

I pick up PSA 9s then they are cheaper than raw. As a collector, I don't mind the PSA 9 discount to raw (usually on chrome). Although some day I do want to free them from that unwieldly holder. But I haven't got the courage to try, yet.

It's so easy my friend. Vice-grip pliars just snap the top right corner off. Take a flat head screw driver and insert it into aforemented corner hole. It pops off cleanly. Can crack a PSA case in literally 5 seconds.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i think a lot of it has to do with what one is doing in the hobby.....

using it to make money? yea, its rough

collecting? eh, stay the course and keep collecting

are prices down as a whole because perhaps collectors "have that" already? (whatever "those" cards may be)

i know personally, once i have (card here) in my collection, its time to hunt for the next card(s) that i want to own.

2021 Bowman's Best box prices are through the roof!

[seanbros55]

Originally Posted by TrickyNick

I thought we were talking about former UMass star, Lou Roe.

Well done.

He was the MAN.

[turkpbr18]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

For the rest of my life. I will never forget that 6 month period when

10-20 grown men would sit at target everyday from 11 am to 3 pm waiting for the card lady to show

80 percent in sweat pants and flip flops ….

The blue sweat pants with the blue & white New Balance.

There was also a group of guys in their color coordinated gym attire. Same guy wore his Bears hat, with an Illinois jacket, matching wind pants and matching shoes. He would shout 'Bro, bro... you don't want to buy that. It's trash. You ripping or flippin'? Trust me bro, I've been doin' this for 35 years'.