If or When Ovechkin breaks the goal record.

[Agent99]

Originally Posted by booky

what do you see his prices going for?(PSA 10's) 2024-2025ish
FWA-Today price=10k+
YGS Today price=5k+
Beehive rookie red today price =$1500+
rookie class card today price= $700+
MVP card today price=1k+
Parkhurst card today price=1k+
Beehive Beige $3500+
rookie threads N/A
rookie materials N/A

of course i forgot some rookies out there.

do you see all his cards 2x ,3x , 4x , 5x , 6x , 7x?

projections.

The card market has enjoyed its peaks and success but now it's back to reality. Perhaps Ovechkin will some day break Gretzky's NHL goals record but every person is holding onto his rookies as if it is gold. Wait until the market is flooded with his products, when everyone decides to sell at the same time.

Let the GOATS Jordan and Gretzky and their softening rookie prices be a cautionary tale to a hobby sometimes driven by greed and hype.

The same cautionary tale applies for every GOAT (Jordan, Brady, Lebron, Curry, Kobe , Crosby, OV etc etc etc).

The other speculation on players such as Doncic, Zion, Trout, Mcdavid, Matthews, Judge are all a gamble because none of these guys have any championship rings.

People in the hobby especially vendors have to get out of being delusional with their exhorborant high prices. In the end, it's worth what someone is willing to pay for.

[k13]

Can you tell me how you flood the market with future watch autos?

In a market that "still" values Kaprizov fwa at $3k-$4k.
Ovechkin at $10k-$15k is a bargain.

[k13]

Jordan and Gretzky rookies are overproduced junk.

What do you think a Jordan/Gretzky Spa rc auto /999 would sell for?

Its like the brady Contenders autos that sell for millions.

[discostu]

Originally Posted by NotGoSportsBall

Meanwhile Kucherov and Malkin sit at #3 and 4 all time points per 60 minutes and rot away in hobby purgatory.

To me, it's a fallacy to use "all-time" and "per 60" in any discussion because it disregards roughly a hundred years of players and player stats.

[Wyatt2506]

Originally Posted by k13

Can you tell me how you flood the market with future watch autos?

In a market that "still" values Kaprizov fwa at $3k-$4k.
Ovechkin at $10k-$15k is a bargain.

Exactly. In the highest end product of 2005/06, The Cup, Ovi only has a TOTAL of 323 cards available (excluding the handful of 1/1's) and 25 of those are the non-autographed Platinum Rookies. So there is not even the ability to flood the market with that stuff. And I think in Ultimate, there are only 384 TOTAL serial-numbered autographed cards available.


Ovi only has 10 serial-numbered base rookies with varying print runs...but if you add up all of those cards - there are 5,141 total available Ovechkin serial-numbered base rookies. Of those, 2,294 are autographed. Of those, 1,397 are on-card autos (with 999 of them in SPA alone). That is not many. Hopefully my math is correct on that. I kinda focused on the autos because that it what I like the most. But one could do a deep dive into other categories (parallels, memorabilia cards, regular inserts, etc.) and the same thing would be reflected....fairly limited print runs.

If the market is going to be flooded with Ovi rookie/rookie-year cards, it will be more Young Guns, Rookie Class, Rookie Showdown that we have already seen a gazillion of.

I don't even think Victory, Parkhurst, Ultra, Black Diamond or Beehive have print runs anywhere near Young Guns. There is obviously a much greater demand for the Young Guns....I get it, but those other non serial-numbered base rookies are nice and seem to be in much shorter supply.

To me, the Ultimate Rookie /299 is the sleeper card. That is a really nice looking card and does not get the love that it should. And the most valuable Ovi rookie will be a Cup RPA with a 4-color patch (I belive there are only 7 of the 99 with 4-color patches).

Over the next 2 to 3 years, the hockey segment of the hobby will continue to grow...more collectors = higher demand. And some of that demand will be for Ovi cards. Other than Young Guns, I don't see many other cards that have the potential to drop drastically in sales price. All just my opinion. Many opposing opinions have been presented here and I can appreciate those as well.

[k13]

Nice write up.

Ultimate /299 has gained a lot of ground recently especially since it a tougher grade too.

[NotGoSportsBall]

Originally Posted by discostu

To me, it's a fallacy to use "all-time" and "per 60" in any discussion because it disregards roughly a hundred years of players and player stats.

I think you are right

[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by k13

Jordan and Gretzky rookies are overproduced junk.

What do you think a Jordan/Gretzky Spa rc auto /999 would sell for?

Its like the brady Contenders autos that sell for millions.

Gretzky has a ton of OPC rookies out there but look for a decent grade and the herd thins considerably.

Jordan is a card that could crash to drop more as there are way more high grade cards as people were just starting to not automatically abuse the cards and non grade school collectors were tucking them away.

[Agent99]

Originally Posted by k13

Can you tell me how you flood the market with future watch autos?

In a market that "still" values Kaprizov fwa at $3k-$4k.
Ovechkin at $10k-$15k is a bargain.

Easy, there are 999 FWA for someone like OV and everyone wants big bucks for them. Those who have cashed out already have. The rest will have to hold onto these for a long time and hope the hobby enjoys another peak.

What if OV blows out a tire. He's no spring chicken. Dont care who you are, nobody is immune to injuries.

[Agent99]

Originally Posted by discostu

To me, it's a fallacy to use "all-time" and "per 60" in any discussion because it disregards roughly a hundred years of players and player stats.

There is no hobby love(no fan base, shadow of another star player) for those players. Nobody cares. That's reality.

[Agent99]

Originally Posted by k13

Jordan and Gretzky rookies are overproduced junk.

What do you think a Jordan/Gretzky Spa rc auto /999 would sell for?

Its like the brady Contenders autos that sell for millions.

These are nostalgic and iconic for millions of people who grew up watching these elite stars. Overproduced yes. But they will never not be sought after.
Everyone loves a winner.

[Selanne00008]

Originally Posted by Agent99

Easy, there are 999 FWA for someone like OV and everyone wants big bucks for them. Those who have cashed out already have. The rest will have to hold onto these for a long time and hope the hobby enjoys another peak.

What if OV blows out a tire. He's no spring chicken. Dont care who you are, nobody is immune to injuries.

Russian Machine Never Breaks


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[mallowciraptor]

Originally Posted by Agent99

What if OV blows out a tire. He's no spring chicken. Dont care who you are, nobody is immune to injuries.

The only thing that would concern me is the amount of hits he lays (156 in 77 games last year).

I think we'll see that number start to dwindle more during this pursuit and that could keep him healthier longer as he near his 40's.

If Ovi ages like Jagr he will have no problem breaking the record.

[Agent99]

Originally Posted by Selanne00008

Russian Machine Never Breaks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The NHL and the youngsters like Leaf goalie Erik Kallgren are trying to break him...

[JohnnyAppleseed]

Originally Posted by mallowciraptor

The only thing that would concern me is the amount of hits he lays (156 in 77 games last year).

I think we'll see that number start to dwindle more during this pursuit and that could keep him healthier longer as he near his 40's.

If Ovi ages like Jagr he will have no problem breaking the record.

If Ovi ages like Jagr he has a realistic shot at 1k. Now we're talking about putting him in the realm of Gretzky when it comes to collectability. 1k would be an echelon that is likely unbreakable given how improved defense and goaltending has become. And this is despite him missing about two seasons due to forces beyond his control.
So yeah, I'm coming around on the idea that there's room to run on his cards and the record being broken being "priced in" does not mean his cards have hit the ceiling.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by mallowciraptor

The only thing that would concern me is the amount of hits he lays (156 in 77 games last year).

I think we'll see that number start to dwindle more during this pursuit and that could keep him healthier longer as he near his 40's.

If Ovi ages like Jagr he will have no problem breaking the record.

I’m not sure about Ovi but there is a reason Jagr aged like he did. His workout regimen was a thing of legend, heck it still is.

He took better care of his body than I think any modern athlete.

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

I’m not sure about Ovi but there is a reason Jagr aged like he did. His workout regimen was a thing of legend, heck it still is.

He took better care of his body than I think any modern athlete.

one of the most amazing athletes to have played professional sports, massively under appreciated. Not as flashy as Bure or Federov, so somewhat shadowed in the scheme of 90's Europeans I think.

[creasecollector]

I think when he breaks the goal record his cards will see a bump.

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by creasecollector

I think when he breaks the goal record his cards will see a bump.

I agree, I think its actually a good thing for the hockey hobby in general, some sports center conversations never hurt

[pip]

If Ovi breaks the record, it will probably have it for a long, long time. And yes, his card values might just pass those of Crosby. Of course, he could always suffer an injury and end up 5 to 10 goals short. The biggest problem is his physicality. Gretzky played with far more finesse, much to his advantage.

[pip]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

Gretzky has a ton of OPC rookies out there but look for a decent grade and the herd thins considerably.

Jordan is a card that could crash to drop more as there are way more high grade cards as people were just starting to not automatically abuse the cards and non grade school collectors were tucking them away.

This is true. Gretzky's OPC RC is far tougher in Mint or Gem Mint condition than the 86F Jordan. There's no comparison, really. And I'd say 90% of the BGS/PSA/SGC 9s and 10s are altered.

[creasecollector]

Originally Posted by pip

If Ovi breaks the record, it will probably have it for a long, long time. And yes, his card values might just pass those of Crosby. Of course, he could always suffer an injury and end up 5 to 10 goals short. The biggest problem is his physicality. Gretzky played with far more finesse, much to his advantage.

Ovechkin will limp over the finish line if he has to.

If he gets that close to the record, he'll find a way to do it.

[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by creasecollector

Ovechkin will limp over the finish line if he has to.

If he gets that close to the record, he'll find a way to do it.

Ovie always does a shift late in the game when the other team is forced to pull their goalie. I can't tell you how many empty net goals he has but it seems like he gets more than his fair share with the Capitals.

[pip]

Originally Posted by creasecollector

Ovechkin will limp over the finish line if he has to.

If he gets that close to the record, he'll find a way to do it.

Well, we all thought Griffey was going to hit 700 home runs too, that Mattingly was a lock for the Hall of Fame, and that Eric Lindros was the next greatest thing since Gordie Howe, Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky. Players' careers don't always turn out the way we predict. I think Ovi will likely break the record but I wouldn't bet a huge sum of money on it.

BTW, why do so many collectors and dealers continue to pronounce his name wrong?

[mallowciraptor]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

Ovie always does a shift late in the game when the other team is forced to pull their goalie. I can't tell you how many empty net goals he has but it seems like he gets more than his fair share with the Capitals.

He is the active NHL leader with 48 ENG. Gretzky finished his career with 56, so both have scored about 6% of their goals into empty nets.