538's 2022-2023 Player Projections dropped

[daeve]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Thank you for posting this. Not perfect, but makes for good discussion.

I agree. Lamelo one surprises me. A few thoughts:

-Even *if* Lamelo puts up big numbers, any way that team wins enough games for him to be considered MVP?


-What does Trae Young in the "Future All Star" group mean?

-LeBron and KD in the "Borderline All Star group?" I think this is where their ages mess with the model.

-How are Demar Derozan and Khris Middleton in the same category as Issac Okoro and Kevin Huerter?

-Zion and Evan Mobley in "Up and Comers" group and not "Future all stars"? hmmm

Yeah, not sure how or if they factored 'wins' into this at all - which is necessary for 'MVP' types. I' guessing it has more to do with pure numbers and is not indicating how real voters may choose. That would probably need to be a separate model, because you wouldn't want to make it a factor when deciding who rotational guys or scrubs are, etc...

Guessing it's going to knock Trae hard on defense again, but it is interesting since offensively he was the best player not named Jokic last year. I wonder if this means the model sees his offensive numbers getting knocked a tad with the Dejounte addition.

Lebron has taken a huge hit defensively, he was only +0.1 last year... guessing it's predicting a further slide on that front. KD rated the same defensively last year.

Huerter has always quietly been liked by models, usually due to efficiency. His move away from being Trae's defensive slave may have something to do with it - now he'll be able to use some energy on offense and not have to worry about being Trae's handicap. As for Okoro, could be the model sees an uptick in offense coming ?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by daeve

Yeah, not sure how or if they factored 'wins' into this at all - which is necessary for 'MVP' types. I' guessing it has more to do with pure numbers and is not indicating how real voters may choose. That would probably need to be a separate model, because you wouldn't want to make it a factor when deciding who rotational guys or scrubs are, etc...

Guessing it's going to knock Trae hard on defense again, but it is interesting since offensively he was the best player not named Jokic last year. I wonder if this means the model sees his offensive numbers getting knocked a tad with the Dejounte addition.

Lebron has taken a huge hit defensively, he was only +0.1 last year... guessing it's predicting a further slide on that front. KD rated the same defensively last year.

Huerter has always quietly been liked by models, usually due to efficiency. His move away from being Trae's defensive slave may have something to do with it - now he'll be able to use some energy on offense and not have to worry about being Trae's handicap. As for Okoro, could be the model sees an uptick in offense coming ?

On some of these, I think this is where metrics just don't fit in basketball.

For Okoro in particular, if the Cavs bring back Sexton, his minutes get buried in a backcourt with Garland, Lavert, Sexton, Rubio/Neto. I don't think there is enough minutes to even go around for him. So for him to be placed in a group with Derozan and Middleton... yikes.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by tjforce

On some of these, I think this is where metrics just don't fit in basketball.

For Okoro in particular, if the Cavs bring back Sexton, his minutes get buried in a backcourt with Garland, Lavert, Sexton, Rubio/Neto. I don't think there is enough minutes to even go around for him. So for him to be placed in a group with Derozan and Middleton... yikes.

I don't think it has rotational minutes as a factor. Also probably not accounting for injuries either as it has Chet on there [or he made the cut-off before injury].