Bulk is Back

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Hell yeah baby!

RIP SGC

This won't hurt SGC at all. The majority of people that submit to SGC won't submit to PSA even at $15. They have their own small cult right now and don't care about ROI. SGC is getting more submissions right now than CSG, even at their high prices. SGC just needs 50,000 cards a month to stay in business, PSA will need over 1 million cards a month. SGC just needs 10% of the grading community to stay loyal to them and they will be fine. PSA might be in more trouble in my opinion. They expanded to such a big size, that I don't think there is demand for 1.5 million slabs a month, once the NJ site is fully operational. They invested in so much space and signed huge leasing agreements, that if the hobby doesn't boom again, they might be the ones in trouble.

[Kichamp]

Originally Posted by BRob1

i’ll add imo the value proposition is pretty poor when for $8 more i can get much faster turnaround, $300 higher dv and don’t have to submit 25 cards a pop. $22 doesn’t separate itself enough from $30 for me.


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I’ve got a $30 economy order in qa2 sent end of June. My $18 special sent a month later just shipped. Doesn’t matter service level for delivery time for a long time now. They do what they want.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by nabzy28

They're being cautious so they don't over promise, that's all I'm getting from this. I fully expect them to beat those times, just as they've done with the other tiers opened up, so far.

i don’t disagree and if it’s pc stuff no problem, or stuff you’re not sure will gem. If it’s grade to sell though it might be worth the extra 8 bucks.


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[BRob1]

Originally Posted by Kichamp

I’ve got a $30 economy order in qa2 sent end of June. My $18 special sent a month later just shipped. Doesn’t matter service level for delivery time for a long time now. They do what they want.

this is the first i’ve heard of anyone saying an $18 special popped. conventional wisdom has been that they will sit in QA1/2 until backlog gone.


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[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by Kichamp

I’ve got a $30 economy order in qa2 sent end of June. My $18 special sent a month later just shipped. Doesn’t matter service level for delivery time for a long time now. They do what they want.

Exactly! This is the company that said no $18 ordee would jump the backlogged subs or the $30 subs. They do not have a FIFO SYSTEM! Many of these submissions will jump others as well. Pay the extra $8 unless you are submitting goats

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

This won't hurt SGC at all. The majority of people that submit to SGC won't submit to PSA even at $15. They have their own small cult right now and don't care about ROI. SGC is getting more submissions right now than CSG, even at their high prices. SGC just needs 50,000 cards a month to stay in business, PSA will need over 1 million cards a month. SGC just needs 10% of the grading community to stay loyal to them and they will be fine. PSA might be in more trouble in my opinion. They expanded to such a big size, that I don't think there is demand for 1.5 million slabs a month, once the NJ site is fully operational. They invested in so much space and signed huge leasing agreements, that if the hobby doesn't boom again, they might be the ones in trouble.

I hear yah, SGC submissions for flips are for those that aren't as interested in ROI, so if they are satisfying a collector niche, then let them keep submitting at $30. Heck, $50, $100, don't care, as long as it keeps volume off PSAs books.

Got a nice little pep in my step today bois. Got some work to do! $8 difference is YEWG

[tyrith]

I really wonder where their cost structure is at now. This is a very surprising number, and it has to either mean they don't think they need to go to $18 to sustain adequate business, or they can't go to $18 and maintain their financial model in the way they want.

[theshowandme]

Prepare yourself for all the posts in 5 months about PSA F****ing collectors with 8s and 9s on some of the junk that’s about to be sent in.

[SleeperCards]

I'll probably keep holding at $22, if enough people do the same prices will come down.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by tyrith

I really wonder where their cost structure is at now. This is a very surprising number, and it has to either mean they don't think they need to go to $18 to sustain adequate business, or they can't go to $18 and maintain their financial model in the way they want.

They still have quite a bit of a backlog at $30 and $18, with a financial incentive to get a bunch of cards at $22 right now, when it will be $15 by the end of the year. It will help them to state 150 days and actually beat that time by a lot. PSA definitely needs to overstate turnaround times and beat them to make customers happy.

PSA's price structure in the future will really depend on the success of the Pokémon card market. If that part of the grading sector shrinks, PSA will be in big trouble. TCG is their biggest grading category right now and was non-existent a few years ago.

[kyaa]

Yikes, $22 is an absurdly high price for bulk grading--more than twice the cost in 2019.

To any PSA employees reading this thread...I have at least 1,000 cards ready to send in for grading at $12 per card. I will not be sending any of them in at $22 per card. So I will either spend $12,000 or zero dollars on PSA grading fees between now and the end of the year. Your call.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by tyrith

I really wonder where their cost structure is at now. This is a very surprising number, and it has to either mean they don't think they need to go to $18 to sustain adequate business, or they can't go to $18 and maintain their financial model in the way they want.

my guess is they were pleased with how many $18 orders they took (Nat claimed 500k in drop off alone at the national) and they want to see if they can maintain similar velocity at $22.

The challenge is we more or less drained the last 18 months of cards we were sitting on waiting for cheaper grading with the $18 special so i’m not sure there’s enough being ripped to see a consistent rush at $22, particularly with the 25 card min. i predict within a month the 25 card min goes away as the next test.


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[atk825]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

This won't hurt SGC at all. The majority of people that submit to SGC won't submit to PSA even at $15. They have their own small cult right now and don't care about ROI. SGC is getting more submissions right now than CSG, even at their high prices. SGC just needs 50,000 cards a month to stay in business, PSA will need over 1 million cards a month. SGC just needs 10% of the grading community to stay loyal to them and they will be fine. PSA might be in more trouble in my opinion. They expanded to such a big size, that I don't think there is demand for 1.5 million slabs a month, once the NJ site is fully operational. They invested in so much space and signed huge leasing agreements, that if the hobby doesn't boom again, they might be the ones in trouble.

As someone who still subs to SGC, this is basically it. Most of the stuff I sub are singles I buy of people I PC. Getting my cards back in under two weeks is really tough to beat.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

They still have quite a bit of a backlog at $30 and $18, with a financial incentive to get a bunch of cards at $22 right now, when it will be $15 by the end of the year. It will help them to state 150 days and actually beat that time by a lot. PSA definitely needs to overstate turnaround times and beat them to make customers happy.

PSA's price structure in the future will really depend on the success of the Pokémon card market. If that part of the grading sector shrinks, PSA will be in big trouble. TCG is their biggest grading category right now and was non-existent a few years ago.

PSA is charing 2x what they were charging 24-30 months ago, so their margins I'm sure are doing fine, while taking in significantly more cards. Revenue, now being private, is likely up 4x. They can fall quite a bit and still be "okay"

Again, as PSA drops prices, that's only trouble for the other TPGs with their head in the sand. Hell, even BGS knows what's up as they communicated a 20% off coupon off all services this morning for September.

Price wars just began baby. Nat threw the first bomb and at least two of the other TPGs don't even know that they are at war.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by kyaa

To any PSA employees reading this thread...I have at least 1,000 cards ready to send in for grading at $12 per card. I will not be sending any of them in at $22 per card. So I will either spend $12,000 or zero dollars on PSA grading fees between now and the end of the year. Your call.

They don't want another year plus turnaround time. At $12 a card, people will be cracking SGC/CSG and any slab they can get their hands on to submit to PSA. They have no financial advantage on offering $12 right now. They know people like you waiting for $12 grading, will wait another 6 months and not use another company. PSA is going to milk this to their advantage as long as possible. Financially, this makes sense for PSA. Adding $22 grading to their backlog is a win for them.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by kyaa

Yikes, $22 is an absurdly high price for bulk grading--more than twice the cost in 2019.

To any PSA employees reading this thread...I have at least 1,000 cards ready to send in for grading at $12 per card. I will not be sending any of them in at $22 per card. So I will either spend $12,000 or zero dollars on PSA grading fees between now and the end of the year. Your call.

So you have a back log roughly the size of the number of cards they grade every ten minutes.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

They still have quite a bit of a backlog at $30 and $18, with a financial incentive to get a bunch of cards at $22 right now, when it will be $15 by the end of the year. It will help them to state 150 days and actually beat that time by a lot. PSA definitely needs to overstate turnaround times and beat them to make customers happy.

PSA's price structure in the future will really depend on the success of the Pokémon card market. If that part of the grading sector shrinks, PSA will be in big trouble. TCG is their biggest grading category right now and was non-existent a few years ago.

If that's true, they're hosed, because cards that are actually worth grading are maybe one per box at most, even before you filter for whether or not they have gradable centering. There were a LOT of junk UM slabs created - Hidden Fates baby shinies, base Charizard GXes, Champion's Path promo Charizards, random Full Arts.

In the last closed PWCC Auction (#33) there were 762 Pokemon cards from 2017 or later.

- 31 unsold
- Approx 100 more sold for the minimum ($12 after premium)
- Approx 370 (including above) sold for less than $20
- Right about 50 sold for more than $100. Maybe 5-7 of them were cards other than Charizards or SSP Japanese promos.

Pokemon wax is easily available and very reasonably priced these days - pretty much back to pre-COVID except inflation adjusted. That's not a sign of a product that's going to create much grading activity anymore than being able to buy Series 1 everywhere was a sign that grading base Wanders would be good.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Prepare yourself for all the posts in 5 months about PSA F****ing collectors with 8s and 9s on some of the junk that’s about to be sent in.

I guarantee those will be back in no more than 3 months.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Price wars just began baby. Nat threw the first bomb and at least two of the other TPGs don't even know that they are at war.

TAG just started their presale and are getting ready to make a much bigger impact than HGA in this "AI" grading. I thought they weren't ever going to grade anything but try to sell their technology. Looks like they are looking for big submissions right away at around $20 a card. With all these vaults and grading services, it will be complete chaos in 2023. Let the fun and drama begin!

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by tyrith

If that's true, they're hosed, because cards that are actually worth grading are maybe one per box at most, even before you filter for whether or not they have gradable centering. There were a LOT of junk UM slabs created - Hidden Fates baby shinies, base Charizard GXes, Champion's Path promo Charizards, random Full Arts.

In August PSA graded 275,700 TCG and 201,300 basketball cards. Baseball was at 199,200 and Football (not the stupid sport with a checkered ball) was at 108,200. TCG has been their biggest grading category for a long time now. Sorry about the soccer comment, waiting for the hate mail.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Price wars just began baby. Nat threw the first bomb and at least two of the other TPGs don't even know that they are at war.

I’m using this but providing credit. Incredible analogy

[smackvay]

I remember when i used to host group subs on here and 20 day price was $7 non auto and $8 for auto thru bgs
Sent in over 30,000 cards at those prices

[DetroitTN]

Cut that $22 in half and subtract a few dollars

[thestickman1]

At $22 and $199 value…no thanks PSA! There is no value here!

[warderjack769]

Originally Posted by BRob1

this is the first i’ve heard of anyone saying an $18 special popped. conventional wisdom has been that they will sit in QA1/2 until backlog gone.


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I was surprised yesterday when my $18 National special popped and shipped. I don't get it, I have a $30 value pre-special order in still at QA2. These guys can't do FIFO to save their lives.