Who Will Be the #1 Prospect In 2023

[padremurph]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Neither Zac Veen nor Robert Hassell had good seasons. They were both really dragged down by AA performance at the end of the year.

Veen wasn't even that good in A-ball, although he's currently lighting up the AFL and passes the eye test for sure.

Hassell is currently injured so I never got to see him in the AFL.

Yea, Hassell definitely had a let down once he got to AA. I’m thinking his line drive approach will benefit tremendously from the shift ban though. And if he can keep adding power, watch out

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

correction ~ 90%+ of the time

I think we may have different definitions of can't miss, and/or what counts as a miss. For example I don't think there is a single can't miss prospect in this year's class. They all have some sort of red flag, yet after a bunch of them fail people will say, "See?".

It's been looked at and something like 50% of top whatever prospects provide their team's with value. I think the problem in the hobby is if a player becomes a measly above average regular for 5 years that counts as a miss...when in fact it is a great success.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I think we may have different definitions of can't miss, and/or what counts as a miss. For example I don't think there is a single can't miss prospect in this year's class. They all have some sort of red flag, yet after a bunch of them fail people will say, "See?".

It's been looked at and something like 50% of top whatever prospects provide their team's with value. I think the problem in the hobby is if a player becomes a measly above average regular for 5 years that counts as a miss...when in fact it is a great success.

I think you’re right ( we have different definitions of what a ‘miss’ is. ) My comment about 90%+ was referring to not being ‘Hobby Good’. I’m sure there have been plenty of ‘can’t miss’ Prospects that made it to the Show, and were productive / helped their Teams. I was strictly looking thru my own lenses as a Coll-vestor

[rwperu34]

Check out the K:BB in A+ ratio for Eduardo Garcia, SS, MIL.

[jhssketchcards]

Byron Buxton


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[PumpnDumpling]

Jahzare Jackson

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by PumpnDumpling

Jahzare Jackson

The question is, was it really worth putting your entire family at risk to say this.

[PumpnDumpling]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

The question is, was it really worth putting your entire family at risk to say this.

Absolutely, Hell Yeah

[Sidirezegh]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Byron Buxton

He'll never be healthy long enough to matter.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

The question is, was it really worth putting your entire family at risk to say this.

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[BRob1]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

For example I don't think there is a single can't miss prospect in this year's class. They all have some sort of red flag, yet after a bunch of them fail people will say, "See?".

What would you consider Chourio’s red flag to be at this point?


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[natbornkiller]

putta playername

[Funkster]

Oof, speaking of Chourio PSA 10 of his red sapphire refractor just went up on eBay BIN for 10k.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by BRob1

What would you consider Chourio’s red flag to be at this point?


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He's 18. He has extreme risk potential. Yes, he's in the top 1% of 18 year old's based on his track record. But he's shown immense success in Low A, some success in high A, and was completely overmatched in AA, as all but about a dozen 18 year old's have been in the past 30 years.

We have 400 ABs of meaningful data. Not many guys have success with a 3.7/1 K/BB rate in the lower minors. There's a possibility he's a free swinger that doesn't make adjustments when he reaches AA and sees legitimate breaking balls.

Brandon Wood put up numbers in A+ at age 29 that were FAR superior to Chourio, and couldn't figure out how to adjust to off speed. He struck out less than Chourio.

It's not like Chourio's numbers are otherworldly.. 288 avg with a .538 slg is impressive, particularly for an 18 year old. When you see what Soto did at age 19 across multiple levels, they aren't as impressive-particularly the K's.

The fact that he's shown as much pop as he has and has success at A+ as an 18 year old puts him on the short list for hobby potential. He has a long way to go to prove he can control the strike zone and make adjustments. There's a big jump between A+ and AA. Luis Matos was torching A ball pitching while swinging at everything, and doesn't even look like a prospect in A+.

If Chourio can control the strike zone, he's on the shortlist of guys that COULD be a generational prospect, because he's put himself in a psotition to hit AA as a 19 year old. If he crushes AA, he's in a great spot. As it stands, it's hard to get too excited when he's hitting below 260 and OBPing below 320. If he puts up a similar line in A+ next year, that's not a tremendously exciting prospect, and it's not without risk.

Very exciting prospect for now. Definitely not without immense risk.

[LVDan]

This is strong content up here ^

[brios8]

JORDAN LAWLAR.. He will only get better and a true 5 tool player
His real HYPE will start 2023

I see Marcelo Mayer with similar potential.

I wouldnt mind seeing Anthony Volpe or Noelvi Marte, but I think the other two are more talented.


Hopefully Jasson Dominguez in 2024!

[ThoseBackPages]

Volpe

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by BRob1

What would you consider Chourio’s red flag to be at this point?


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Boredlawyer pretty much hit it. If I wanted to shorten the post up I'd just say his K% and K:BB are somewhat worrisome and suggest some risk as he gets to the upper levels of the minors.

Statistically I'd also add sample size. Over 439 PA the two stats that are most telling are K% and BB%...the area where he's weakest. ISO and BA don't give as much information over that sample.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by brios8

JORDAN LAWLAR.. He will only get better and a true 5 tool player
His real HYPE will start 2023

I see Marcelo Mayer with similar potential.

I wouldnt mind seeing Anthony Volpe or Noelvi Marte, but I think the other two are more talented.


Hopefully Jasson Dominguez in 2024!

Lawlar is certainly in the mix for 2024 #1 overall. In fact he might be the most likely (other than Chourio) simply because he's the highest ranked prospect right now that will likely still be a prospect at this time next year.

Interestingly Masyn Winn scored higher in my stat based scouting system (ie he had a better year). Having seen them both up close, Lawlar definitely has the higher ceiling (he's bigger and has more defensive upside). I kept him ahead of Winn on my list, but I did add Winn to the A-/A group. That slides him in at #8 on my position list ahead, of Volpe and de la Cruz.

[jhssketchcards]

Since 2010 the MLB Top Prospects:

2010 Heyward
2011 Trout
2012 M. Moore
2013 Profar
2014 Buxton
2015 Buxton
2016 C. Seager
2017 Benintendi
2018 Acuna Jr
2019 Guerrero Jr
2020 Franco
2021 Rutschman
2022 F. Alvarez

This list doesn’t exactly scream perennial AS and potential all-time great. Trout is the only one to have delivered for guys in the league 5+ years or more.
Acuna, Guerrero, Seager and a less degree Buxton
have had some AS level years and flirted with MVPs, but Trout is the only one with 1 let alone 3. My opinion is this list means absolutely nothing.


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[Funkster]

Being the number one prospect doesn't assume you're going to be a superstar, that list is almost entirely comprised of guys that have produced significantly at the major league level.

[Philthy]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Sounds like someone who was playing over his head somewhat and may regress next year.

He may, but his underlying advanced stats are all very encouraging. All of his defensive metrics are outstanding so he'll be a plus player there regardless.

For offense 82nd percentile xBA and 83rd percentile xSLG. He also has a good barrel rate and exit velocity numbers. He does have a lot of improvement for strikeouts and chasing so we'll see how he handles that next sesaon.

[Philthy]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Since 2010 the MLB Top Prospects:

2010 Heyward
2011 Trout
2012 M. Moore
2013 Profar
2014 Buxton
2015 Buxton
2016 C. Seager
2017 Benintendi
2018 Acuna Jr
2019 Guerrero Jr
2020 Franco
2021 Rutschman
2022 F. Alvarez

This list doesn’t exactly scream perennial AS and potential all-time great. Trout is the only one to have delivered for guys in the league 5+ years or more.
Acuna, Guerrero, Seager and a less degree Buxton
have had some AS level years and flirted with MVPs, but Trout is the only one with 1 let alone 3. My opinion is this list means absolutely nothing.


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Most of these guys have turned into very good MLB players.

[Remmons22]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

Volpe

Lol, is he even top 10 after this season?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Since 2010 the MLB Top Prospects:

2010 Heyward
2011 Trout
2012 M. Moore
2013 Profar
2014 Buxton
2015 Buxton
2016 C. Seager
2017 Benintendi
2018 Acuna Jr
2019 Guerrero Jr
2020 Franco
2021 Rutschman
2022 F. Alvarez

This list doesn’t exactly scream perennial AS and potential all-time great. Trout is the only one to have delivered for guys in the league 5+ years or more.
Acuna, Guerrero, Seager and a less degree Buxton
have had some AS level years and flirted with MVPs, but Trout is the only one with 1 let alone 3. My opinion is this list means absolutely nothing.


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I don't think this list illustrates the point you think it does.

When you consider the rates that prospects become major league successes, this list hits at a VERY high rate.