Blowout Cards Black November/Friday Thread

[rippev]

Crazy to think that those 2017 optic mega boxes are the best deal of the day. They could be had in 2019 for the Black Friday sale for 10% of today’s cost!

[hexthem4n]

I ended up getting 100 fathers day packs. Bored.

[MavsRChamps]

Originally Posted by hexthem4n

I ended up getting 100 fathers day packs. Bored.

I did too ... a few here said to check online and see that breaks are horrific. I did & they didn’t seem too bad. Numbered cards every few packs, autos/game used potential, only stars so not diluted with common guys. For baseball it may be underwhelming but the others sports are licensed and have top rookies.

Of course not a guaranteed money maker but nothing is nowadays. I also like it’s 100 packs but just 200 cards total. Better than having another 6 fillers per pack that just take up space.

[Wade Mulroy]

The fact that those Optic megas are still in stock 24 hours later, despite being priced at (seemingly) ~60% the current market price, appears to be a bit of an implication on the card market, as a whole.

It’s weird. On the surface it looks like an amazing deal, but still just feels like it’s too bloated to justify.

[Bcr]

There was never going to be any deals. Most sealed is still way overpriced.

[bustsomewax]

Maybe next year....

[Prox3]

Originally Posted by Wade Mulroy

The fact that those Optic megas are still in stock 24 hours later, despite being priced at (seemingly) ~60% the current market price, appears to be a bit of an implication on the card market, as a whole.

It’s weird. On the surface it looks like an amazing deal, but still just feels like it’s too bloated to justify.

It’s kind of like stocks. Those that can buy during the down times will benefit when times are good again and those that don’t buy because they think prices are still too high regret not taking certain opportunities.

[JoeAdam]

Originally Posted by Wade Mulroy

The fact that those Optic megas are still in stock 24 hours later, despite being priced at (seemingly) ~60% the current market price, appears to be a bit of an implication on the card market, as a whole.

It’s weird. On the surface it looks like an amazing deal, but still just feels like it’s too bloated to justify.

Good long term hold. Getting more supply onto the market will only cause more of it to be opened.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Prox3

It’s kind of like stocks. Those that can buy during the down times will benefit when times are good again and those that don’t buy because they think prices are still too high regret not taking certain opportunities.

Buying 2017 Optic Megas for $300 is like buying PTON for $50. But it used to be $150!

[fakeamerican1]

Originally Posted by Wade Mulroy

The fact that those Optic megas are still in stock 24 hours later, despite being priced at (seemingly) ~60% the current market price, appears to be a bit of an implication on the card market, as a whole.

It’s weird. On the surface it looks like an amazing deal, but still just feels like it’s too bloated to justify.

its oos now...cant add to cart

[splitrockgamer]

Originally Posted by Wade Mulroy

The fact that those Optic megas are still in stock 24 hours later, despite being priced at (seemingly) ~60% the current market price, appears to be a bit of an implication on the card market, as a whole.

It’s weird. On the surface it looks like an amazing deal, but still just feels like it’s too bloated to justify.

People are going to trumpet it as a good deal/long term hold. Fact is the bubble has popped and these are not good unless there is another unforeseen spike. The Mahomes red yellow raw is a $350 card and that is what you're hoping for in 1 of every ~13 boxes.. so in no way is this a good deal. You can get holo but they are rarer than in blasters. Best case you could maybe make a few hundred selling in a few years if there is another spike, but likely that you wont make much or you will bust for a loss in the next few years. Who knows what 5 years brings, but most don't sit on wax that long and that is very risky. The risk return just isn't there and that is why they still sit there unsold out.

All of this is also magnified by many like me who snagged these on 2019 before anybody knew that the card market would absolutely explode, but again that bubble has popped last thing to drop is sealed wax because people can't forget what happened 2-3 years ago.. including me hard to retrain your way of thinking.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by splitrockgamer

People are going to trumpet it as a good deal/long term hold. Fact is the bubble has popped and these are not good unless there is another unforeseen spike.

Actually, the bubble hasn’t popped - we’re just in a big, nasty market correcting dip. Which leads me to point #2 - unforeseen spikes and dips have been the way of things since the beginning / your post implies we are at some rock bottom that the market will not recover from - those are 2 extremes which are extremely unlikely

[cruiserdaddy7]

While not a fan of Father's Day packs, I hope you guys hit some nice stuff. Let us know how you do.

[bmann33]

I won’t buy more pre-‘20 megas from BO or any of the big 3 - you think you’re getting the beautiful case fresh box displayed in the photo - and some do- but it can also be an abused crushed box someone used as a doorstop and sold back to them. I’m sure the cards are fine.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Actually, the bubble hasn’t popped - we’re just in a big, nasty market correcting dip. Which leads me to point #2 - unforeseen spikes and dips have been the way of things since the beginning / your post implies we are some rock bottom that the market will not recover from - those are 2 extremes which are extremely unlikely

Wrong. Look around you. Risk assets were in a bubble of a magnitude you will never see again. Thinking this a “dip” is a huge miscalculation. Cards are still looking for a bottom.

[ThoseBackPages]

glad this puts the Prizm vs Optic war to bed lol

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Wrong. Look around you. Risk assets were in a bubble of a magnitude you will never see again. Thinking this a “dip” is a huge miscalculation. Cards are still looking for a bottom.

If “cards are still looking for a bottom” …. then that reaffirms my previous point that the bubble hasn’t burst — that would be the bottom

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

If “cards are still looking for a bottom” …. then that reaffirms my previous point that the bubble hasn’t burst — that would be the bottom

You just have a weird definition.

Few of the highs reached in 2021-22 will ever be reached again. The cards that will are the standout, special, difficult to find, highly collected grails.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Few of the highs reached in 2021-22 will ever be reached again.

Like I said in a previous post, I don’t buy in to ‘extremism’

Never
Always
Rock bottom
Best
Worst
Ever
Floor
Ceiling

Etc etc etc
I find most things in life, including our previous cardboard, fall somewhere in between the most unsurpassable of finite extremes / I guess you could consider me a Realist

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Like I said in a previous post, I don’t buy in to ‘extremism’

Never
Always
Rock bottom
Best
Worst
Ever
Floor
Ceiling

Etc etc etc
I find most things in life, including our previous cardboard, fall somewhere in between the most unsurpassable of finite extremes / I guess you could consider me a Realist

It’s not a reach to say that though, as that’s been the history of the hobby. Few active players that are hobby relevant today will be hobby relevant in two years. So combine that with a bubble, and most of these peak prices will never be reached again.

Look at Trout Update for example. Do we think a base PSA 10 will get to $8k+ again? Diamond $30k? Cognac $18k? Gold $25k? Red $136k? Those are very tough comps. Black peak was $124k for a BGS 9.5. Cognac peak was $126k for the jersey number PSA 9. Those I could see, because they are so tough to come by.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You just have a weird definition.

Few of the highs reached in 2021-22 will ever be reached again. The cards that will are the standout, special, difficult to find, highly collected grails.

The hobby has always been like that. Most cards that saw new highs in 2012 never saw those highs again minus the standout, special, difficult to find, and highly collected grails. While yes, the market has come down from crazy highs, it isn't going to zero. Your posts almost always insinuate that no one will ever buy another card starting in 2023. The hobby isn't going anywhere. Preppers can fill their basement with powered milk and water, but the world will not cease its rotation. Even if a small percentage think/hope that it will.

Yes, a "recession" is coming. By definition, it is coming, although we all know we are already in one. But life will go on, and so will card sales.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s not a reach to say that though, as that’s been the history of the hobby. Few active players that are hobby relevant today will be hobby relevant in two years. So combine that with a bubble, and most of these peak prices will never be reached again.

That has nothing to do with the bubble. That has always been a factual statement. This roller coaster just had a higher peak. Still the same ride as always.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The hobby has always been like that. Most cards that saw new highs in 2012 never saw those highs again minus the standout, special, difficult to find, and highly collected grails. While yes, the market has come down from crazy highs, it isn't going to zero. Your posts almost always insinuate that no one will ever buy another card starting in 2023. The hobby isn't going anywhere. Preppers can fill their basement with powered milk and water, but the world will not cease its rotation. Even if a small percentage think/hope that it will.

Yes, a "recession" is coming. By definition, it is coming, although we all know we are already in one. But life will go on, and so will card sales.

I’m sorry you read my posts that way. I certainly don’t spend money on the hobby as one would if I thought cards were going to zero.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Like I said in a previous post, I don’t buy in to ‘extremism’

Never
Always
Rock bottom
Best
Worst
Ever
Floor
Ceiling

Etc etc etc
I find most things in life, including our previous cardboard, fall somewhere in between the most unsurpassable of finite extremes / I guess you could consider me a Realist

Would you buy into the term “product of the year” because that phrase was not extreme enough to make it on your list?

Or should it be added to your list along with “best”, because the phrase instructs collectors on what they should buy?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rippev

Crazy to think that those 2017 optic mega boxes are the best deal of the day. They could be had in 2019 for the Black Friday sale for 10% of today’s cost!

Yeah, crazy to think a 2017 product was the 2022 deal of the year!