2022 Topps Chrome Update Sapphire--This Could Be the Product of the Year? (2022/2023)

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by ctizzle

What did ‘18 retail for?


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damn. i cant remember. i want to say $300

[cj828282]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

damn. i cant remember. i want to say $300

$199.99

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by cj828282

$199.99

thank you!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by JAM061200

I thought you hated current year releases? I remember you saying the last current year release you bought was 2020 Prizm Basketball.

I don’t hate current year releases. I hate what they’ve released in the recent years. And trust me, this will almost certainly be my only 2019+ sports wax purchase this year.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cj828282

$199.99

Such a great release. Four years later my PSA 10 Sandy Alcantara auto almost paid for the box.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by zworykin

I meant he clearly used multiple Topps accounts when he had to (e.g. MC exclusives) and bought stuff from BO at other times. I thought that was pretty clear.

Not sure if you are intentionally missing the point here, but I’m talking specifically about Sapphire Update. Sapphire in general has been a product that is online exclusive and not offered by blowout, unless they get close out inventory down the road.

I’m surprised if he actually called up blowout and got a bunch of boxes of this. I think more likely he multi accounted a bunch of boxes from the topps drop. which no big deal because many people did.


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[ctizzle]

Originally Posted by cj828282

$199.99

Yes, thank you!


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by cj828282

$199.99

Remember $14.99 2017 bowman mega boxes?

You couldn’t lose on those either.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You can estimate double the print run for base singles.

To put things in perspective, you will pull a jrod/jrod rd in every 6 boxes you open. Every single box will have a top 5 rookie logo player.

So be careful not to overpay initially, we will see at least 4-5x the number of jrod singles in this release on eBay versus TCS.

I think many will be sent for grading just in time for the season, so it may limit the initial flood.

Fascinating point... although, if they keep color parallels (and their numbering) the same, it would imply print runs stay the same...

Why? Because the total number of color cards bound the total number of boxes... and if the set is half the size, it will require 1/2 the number of boxes to pack out the 1/2 as many color parallel cards (again, if those cards stay the same)

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by pewe

Fascinating point... although, if they keep color parallels (and their numbering) the same, it would imply print runs stay the same...

Why? Because the total number of color cards bound the total number of boxes... and if the set is half the size, it will require 1/2 the number of boxes to pack out the 1/2 as many color parallel cards (again, if those cards stay the same)

True, though we can’t be sure until odds are out.

However, if topps would only make half the revenue on this product by keeping the odds the same as TCS (base card print run same), it wouldn’t make any business sense. Any for profit company would at least try to match revenue, ie doubling production. At double production, it would double the base card print run.

They charge half the price for a box, but double the box run, therefore making the same amount on TCUS as TCU.

I hope I got that math right? LOL

Then again, nothing topps does ever makes sense.

[zworykin]

We already know they didn't keep the parallels the same, the box says two cards numbered to /99 or less (TCS this year topped out at /50).

[houdini]

Originally Posted by BRob1

He was very upset when his dozens of mc accounts got clipped so it seemed like he needed to buy product directly from topps.

Is it creepy that you think this much about me or that you have to lie doing it?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by zworykin

We already know they didn't keep the parallels the same, the box says two cards numbered to /99 or less (TCS this year topped out at /50).

Oh boy, so if odds of the /99 stay at 1:7 packs, then base card production is double TCS. This would keep boxes consistent at two parallels per box and base card print run would be closer to 2300.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by houdini

Is it creepy that you think this much about me or that you have to lie doing it?

haha there he is! so triggered


you’ve said in multiple places you bought a bunch of these boxes, why not just tell us where you bought them?


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[zworykin]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Oh boy, so if odds of the /99 stay at 1:7 packs, then base card production is double TCS. This would keep boxes consistent at two parallels per box and base card print run would be closer to 2300.

Already did the napkin math earlier in the thread. I'm guessing about 25k boxes which gets you to 2200-2300 base print run, yes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...&postcount=301
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...&postcount=420

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Already did the napkin math earlier in the thread. I'm guessing about 25k boxes which gets you to 2200-2300 base print run, yes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...&postcount=301
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...&postcount=420

Thanks, good to know my math skills are still intact!

[cj828282]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Already did the napkin math earlier in the thread. I'm guessing about 25k boxes which gets you to 2200-2300 base print run, yes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...&postcount=301
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...&postcount=420

If there are only 25K boxes, the prices are too low for this product.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by cj828282

If there are only 25K boxes, the prices are too low for this product.

There is the possibility that topps makes the /99 odds 1:11 to 1:14.

That could quadruple the base card print run!

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Super tough to even consider not knowing the hypothetical product cost/format, print run and checklist size IMO

I started to think about it and it made brain hurt because of the unknowns.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Sapphire raw is in the $600-700 range. A PSA 10 did $1700 on eBay and $1200 on MySlabs last week.



For Update, I’m thinking $200-300 raw and $500-750 PSA 10 assuming quality isn’t poor.

Originally Posted by pewe

Are you guessing print run will be larger than the ~1050 for regular sapphire? Feels like they might rather go the other direction? Or at least hold at the same level.



But I clearly have no real data to back that up, other than they lowered the price vs. last year perhaps with worry they might not sell... this might also mean they constrained print run?

sorry guys- going back to yeserday I thought the question was "how would a hypothetical Ohtani TCUS card compare to his TCU cards"?

[pewe]

Originally Posted by zworykin

We already know they didn't keep the parallels the same, the box says two cards numbered to /99 or less (TCS this year topped out at /50).

OH! well, if that is the case, then it could imply they doubled the base print run to keep the box run the same, and had to insert one more parallel to get the box odds to work out

[BambinoShuffle]

So what are we setting the wax market at, boys? $550 or $600?

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by pewe

OH! well, if that is the case, then it could imply they doubled the base print run to keep the box run the same, and had to insert one more parallel to get the box odds to work out

Yep.

To be fair I should clarify, it isn't actually the box that says it, just the product page - so grain of salt, as we know how accurate their product pages are sometimes. But I'm assuming it's correct.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Yep.

To be fair I should clarify, it isn't actually the box that says it, just the product page - so grain of salt, as we know how accurate their product pages are sometimes. But I'm assuming it's correct.

Totally, but if they keep all the other parallels, and *JUST* add one incremental at #/99, that would increase the original print run by 108.8% (i.e., 2.088x)

Which I guess is probably your other thread math

[houdini]

Originally Posted by BRob1

haha there he is! so triggered


you’ve said in multiple places you bought a bunch of these boxes, why not just tell us where you bought them?


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Look, I am sure your previous account was your life's work, but I only banned scammers and fools, so take that up with the new admin.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by houdini

Look, I am sure your previous account was your life's work, but I only banned scammers and fools, so take that up with the new admin.

Not sure what that means exactly, but you don’t want to say where you bought the boxes?


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