Official Tom Brady RC Price Tracker

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

Yeah, it seems that's how it works for cards. I actually think a lot of his Pats uni cards look terrible. He's wearing sweat pants and practice jerseys in most of them, I fail to see how that's superior to a senior bowl uni with a Michigan helmet, but whatever. I'll likely grab 1-2 college cards and 1-2 Pats cards and call it a day.

No one is talking about the sweatpants cards when referring to NFL uniform cards. They're talking about Metal, Showcase, Momentum, Contenders, Limited, etc.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

No one is talking about the sweatpants cards when referring to NFL uniform cards. They're talking about Metal, Showcase, Momentum, Contenders, Limited, etc.

Yeah I know there's others. I think Metal looks kind of bad too honestly, but there are a LOT of sweatpants and/or practice jersey cards for the "Patriots uni" cards.


The most prestigious ones are obvious. The one thing I don't like per se but understand, is how a high pop print like Bowman chrome, even bowman paper is so expensive and revered. There are over 4.3k BCs on PSA alone, and I feel like BGS was more popular back then, probably more in BGS.

Either way.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Agree on the bolded part. Every now and then, I think of selling the Brady Champ Ticket, Curry NT RPA, 52T Mantle and use those funds to invest in stock market. I might end up doing it if the S&P drops below 3000. It's house money anyways and I am more confident in GOOG and AMZN going from $75 to $150-200 (2-3X) in 5 years than Champ Ticket and Curry NT RPA going up 2-3X in the same time period.

You think the S&P500 is going to drop below 3000? Jesus. I hope you're right honestly because I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting, just bought a tiny bit of AMZN today because at ~97.7 I still believe it's a pretty good buy.

I think we're very likely to go down, but all the "GOAT" investors like Lynch, Buffett, Monger, etc all claim you cannot predict the market, predicting the Macro is pointless. Which I kind of find b.s. considering their philosophy is to invest into "good businesses" then quite literally predict in the macro they will go up as the trend line has done for 40+ years. Seems contradictory.

Anyway if you see this, let me pick your brain on the Brady cards. How would you personally appraise a card like a serial numbered pacific? Paramount seems to be one of the lesser cards, but one went for 5.4k or 5.6k /75 serial in a probstein auction (shill city?). It was a PSA 10. I'm wondering how you'd value a 7-10, for those types say...pacific with the serials, paramount pacific serialed, Vanguard, Revolution. To me, it seems next to impossible to define a price for the former kinds.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

You think the S&P500 is going to drop below 3000? Jesus.

I don't know, which is why I said "if the S&P drops below 3000". I am currently 33% long stocks and 67% cash (SNSXX) in my brokerage account. I would go 100% long stocks/ETF if the S&P dropped to 3200-3500 level. If the S&P drops below 3200, I will invest more in the stock market by selling some of my high end cards.

Originally Posted by NSGJT

Anyway if you see this, let me pick your brain on the Brady cards. How would you personally appraise a card like a serial numbered pacific? Paramount seems to be one of the lesser cards, but one went for 5.4k or 5.6k /75 serial in a probstein auction (shill city?). It was a PSA 10. I'm wondering how you'd value a 7-10, for those types say...pacific with the serials, paramount pacific serialed, Vanguard, Revolution. To me, it seems next to impossible to define a price for the former kinds.

I do not follow those cards, so I have no idea. I will leave it to the experts to answer it.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I don't know, which is why I said "if the S&P drops below 3000". I am currently 33% long stocks and 67% cash (SNSXX) in my brokerage account. I would go 100% long stocks/ETF if the S&P dropped to 3200-3500 level. If the S&P drops below 3200, I will invest more in the stock market by selling some of my high end cards.



I do not follow those cards, so I have no idea. I will leave it to the experts to answer it.

Well I appreciate the answer. You're into the high end Brady cards from what I've seen? What do you think a "fair" price is for a Bowman Chrome or an SPX right now?

Do you see this Brady market or the card market going down in general? Probably right, we'd have to imagine if the stock market, housing market, etc go down the card market would. But at the same time, it did the opposite during Covid (different case) and generally some luxury/entertainment goods do well during recessions actually.

I just fear that the card market entirely will continue to lose some shine, considering the covid peak was such a singular event and blasted value through the roof. But at the same time, cards have had value for a long time and I think Brady will retain or go up in some cases.

[Jbead61]

The SPX is one hundred percent going to get sub 3k range. A lot are for sale now and no one is really buy at the current prices. The card is way over rated and so is the BC. I want a SPX but no way did I ever think it’s worth the previous values or the current ones. I prefer limited run cards like Leaf Limited and Pacific Revolution which so few of people own it, it will just command more due to 300 or less people in the whole world even have it.

[captionwanker]

looks like some people are still buying, a black diamond gold psa 10 brady went for $22.2k at PWCC.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by Jbead61

The SPX is one hundred percent going to get sub 3k range. A lot are for sale now and no one is really buy at the current prices. The card is way over rated and so is the BC. I want a SPX but no way did I ever think it’s worth the previous values or the current ones. I prefer limited run cards like Leaf Limited and Pacific Revolution which so few of people own it, it will just command more due to 300 or less people in the whole world even have it.

Honestly I don't think anyone is really buying most of this s---. I think it's being shill bid to hell and then "sold" and re-listed.

https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/37....m145235.l2565


There's a Vanguard I bid on and came in 2nd a week ago, it was re-listed a day later. It was magically pushed to 700 then 900 range with 2-4 days left on the auction. Now it is over 1100 and you can go look at the bids, obvious blatant shill bidding.

I've seen tons of stuff relisted too.

I agree on short-run stuff, I personally don't mind college jerseys that much but for "investment" it matters. How much is a revolution going for anyway? There's none on ebay, haven't been any listed for a week or two. And again, as stated the prices are all fake anyway or largely fake.

I think a Vanguard actually goes for ~500-800 dollars depending on grade right now if there wasn't any b.s. shill bid racketeering.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by captionwanker

looks like some people are still buying, a black diamond gold psa 10 brady went for $22.2k at PWCC.

Lmao PWCC? Isn't that the most blatant scam auction possible? Closed auction where that dude just shill bids his balls off like he got kicked off ebay for?


edit: so the black diamond gold is listed on BINs, BGS 9.5s multiple for 8.839k and 15k. There are PSA 9s up for 8k and 10k.

So if those were true prices, then yeah maybe. But they're not, from everything I've seen buy it nows are usually ~double the actual fair price if not more.

[Jbead61]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

Honestly I don't think anyone is really buying most of this s---. I think it's being shill bid to hell and then "sold" and re-listed.

https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/37....m145235.l2565


There's a Vanguard I bid on and came in 2nd a week ago, it was re-listed a day later. It was magically pushed to 700 then 900 range with 2-4 days left on the auction. Now it is over 1100 and you can go look at the bids, obvious blatant shill bidding.

I've seen tons of stuff relisted too.

I agree on short-run stuff, I personally don't mind college jerseys that much but for "investment" it matters. How much is a revolution going for anyway? There's none on ebay, haven't been any listed for a week or two. And again, as stated the prices are all fake anyway or largely fake.

I think a Vanguard actually goes for ~500-800 dollars depending on grade right now if there wasn't any b.s. shill bid racketeering.

Some people just can’t let go of what they paid. People who bought Mahomes at peak could get crushed. The media is pumping the guy like crazy but he has such a long way to go to be on Brady’s level. Figuring out true values is hard right now but I am seeing SPX and BC’s all over the place with no buyers which means values need to come down.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by Jbead61

Some people just can’t let go of what they paid. People who bought Mahomes at peak could get crushed. The media is pumping the guy like crazy but he has such a long way to go to be on Brady’s level. Figuring out true values is hard right now but I am seeing SPX and BC’s all over the place with no buyers which means values need to come down.

Mahomes doesn't have to be on Brady's level. He's the best QB in the league right now and that's all it takes to move the needle. I doubt that changes any time soon.

There are quite a few Brady rookies in this week's PWCC auction. Curious to see what a few of those go for. Traditionally QB's prices stay relatively stagnant after they retire until they get into the Hall of Fame but nothing is really normal any more. I may pick up a few rookies if the price is right but I'm not expecting any kind of huge increase at this point. At one point a few years ago I had 155 of his rookies but don't have too many left. There are a few I'd like back.

[Jbead61]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Mahomes doesn't have to be on Brady's level. He's the best QB in the league right now and that's all it takes to move the needle. I doubt that changes any time soon.

There are quite a few Brady rookies in this week's PWCC auction. Curious to see what a few of those go for. Traditionally QB's prices stay relatively stagnant after they retire until they get into the Hall of Fame but nothing is really normal any more. I may pick up a few rookies if the price is right but I'm not expecting any kind of huge increase at this point. At one point a few years ago I had 155 of his rookies but don't have too many left. There are a few I'd like back.

Which ones would you buy back?

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by Jbead61

Which ones would you buy back?

Showcase, Momentum, Limited, Rookies & Stars. I have nothing against the college uniforms or sweatpants, I just prefer the NFL uniforms. As far as the others, I like the Gold Reserve and Leaf Certified the best.

Also miss the Round Numbers auto - wish he was on the front though

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Mahomes doesn't have to be on Brady's level. He's the best QB in the league right now and that's all it takes to move the needle. I doubt that changes any time soon.

There are quite a few Brady rookies in this week's PWCC auction. Curious to see what a few of those go for. Traditionally QB's prices stay relatively stagnant after they retire until they get into the Hall of Fame but nothing is really normal any more. I may pick up a few rookies if the price is right but I'm not expecting any kind of huge increase at this point. At one point a few years ago I had 155 of his rookies but don't have too many left. There are a few I'd like back.

Let me ask/state this again, how are going to possibly go by "PWCC" auction prices?

That guy is a known shill bidder, scammer essentially no? He was kicked off ebay for shill bidding and the bid activity is hidden on his site. I compared the 2000 black diamond "gold" Brady rookies BiN prices from ebay to his last auction that someone posted about yesterday...

Yeah they don't add up. Of course someone "could" just pay more and at an actual auction setting like Goldin/Heritage it seems more possible, but PWCC? Again why is PWCC an indicator of real pricing? Seems like that guy is a scumbag if anything who manipulates the prices/auctions. Am I off here?

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by Jbead61

Some people just can’t let go of what they paid. People who bought Mahomes at peak could get crushed. The media is pumping the guy like crazy but he has such a long way to go to be on Brady’s level. Figuring out true values is hard right now but I am seeing SPX and BC’s all over the place with no buyers which means values need to come down.

I agree. I really wanted to get a Vangaurd, Revolution, or serialed parallel of Paramount (I like that card for some reason).

I then thought about going for that Bulger/Brady auto, or maybe diving into a Donruss or some SP serialed card just to get a Patriots uniform.

But everything I've seen on ebay has been shilled to kingdom come besides one obscure Brady card I bought a week ago. Serialed to 50 btw and I got it for like 29 bucks. Since it was a rare set but probably has little demand or hype like BC or "Prizm" for modern. Anyway...yeah the prices are all bulls---.

They're going to go down. I think people are desperately selling off now actually, saw one guy sell about 20 graded Brady rookies a earlier this week, seeing the same guys relisting cards for way more than they are worth and probably lowering bit by bit as nothing sells.

EBay is s--- too honestly. It's comical seeing 10-20 bids on cards that are 5-7 days out from selling, yeah for sure bro. They are a joke regulating the manipulation. The only other vanguard Brady up right now is at 578 already, with over 6 days out for Probstein. Yeah lol, 17 people just simply couldn't wait to bid and thought they'd win the auction there and then huh.

[atoaz12]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

I agree. I really wanted to get a Vangaurd, Revolution, or serialed parallel of Paramount (I like that card for some reason).

I then thought about going for that Bulger/Brady auto, or maybe diving into a Donruss or some SP serialed card just to get a Patriots uniform.

But everything I've seen on ebay has been shilled to kingdom come besides one obscure Brady card I bought a week ago. Serialed to 50 btw and I got it for like 29 bucks. Since it was a rare set but probably has little demand or hype like BC or "Prizm" for modern. Anyway...yeah the prices are all bulls---.

They're going to go down. I think people are desperately selling off now actually, saw one guy sell about 20 graded Brady rookies a earlier this week, seeing the same guys relisting cards for way more than they are worth and probably lowering bit by bit as nothing sells.

EBay is s--- too honestly. It's comical seeing 10-20 bids on cards that are 5-7 days out from selling, yeah for sure bro. They are a joke regulating the manipulation. The only other vanguard Brady up right now is at 578 already, with over 6 days out for Probstein. Yeah lol, 17 people just simply couldn't wait to bid and thought they'd win the auction there and then huh.

Shilling is a thing. It's smart to be skeptical and pay attention to things like this.

But to think there's no way 17 people (maybe less if multiple bids) in a hobby of millions couldn't have touched a screen to make a bid in order to get alerts, etc., may be pushing it

[stretcharmstron]

You can claim shilling all you like but I bid on things as soon as they get listed to keep driving others out, I know what my top price is, I don't care about trying to "snipe" a deal, there are no steals at the higher end because everybody has the same idea.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by stretcharmstron

You can claim shilling all you like but I bid on things as soon as they get listed to keep driving others out, I know what my top price is, I don't care about trying to "snipe" a deal, there are no steals at the higher end because everybody has the same idea.

I place bid low bids on items rather than save them in a watchlist. Same thing - I've actually won a few like that from listing errors. But plenty of people do the same.

I think it comes from sites like Goldin and PWCC where you can't bid in the extended bidding period unless you've previously bid on the item. People carry that mindset over to ebay. Doesn't mean they're all shills.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by atoaz12

Shilling is a thing. It's smart to be skeptical and pay attention to things like this.

But to think there's no way 17 people (maybe less if multiple bids) in a hobby of millions couldn't have touched a screen to make a bid in order to get alerts, etc., may be pushing it

It's hard to say. I looked at the individual bids and the % with the seller specifically and their total feedback, it seemed pretty obvious with that Vanguard card which was re-listed instantly after it "sold" for 1,377 dollars and is now at 1,134 with an hour left. Again being shill bidded imo, pretty clearly. But who knows, maybe it's not.

Originally Posted by stretchcharmson

You can claim shilling all you like but I bid on things as soon as they get listed to keep driving others out, I know what my top price is, I don't care about trying to "snipe" a deal, there are no steals at the higher end because everybody has the same idea.

To each their own I guess. I don't see the logic in it but obviously there's whales in every hobby or walk of life who just have a ton of money and don't give a F- and will pay. Not saying you or anyone above is, I can see bidding early but it doesn't make much sense to me. Either way, you can set your max bid so it's somewhat irrelevant right.

I looked at individual bids and all that, so I'm claiming shilling with evidence. Maybe on the 17 probstein bid there isn't. I didn't check that one to be fair but I know probstein is a notorious shill bidder is he not?

Either way, it's almost impossible to determine price points in this market, through ebay, in this "hobby" and I think that's a shame. It's basically an unregulated b.s. market with a bunch of scumbags in it who take advantage of people and do shady stuff.

[oplum29]

they just listed several SPA and SPX rookies on eBay recently on auction. let's see what they go for.

could be a very telling story.

[Jbead61]

SPX 8 buy it now for $3900 and a 9 for $4445 buy it now. The pricing will come down and both have an offer tab. The SPX is just not that rare or good looking of a card. I will get one for $1500 just to add to my collection even though I’m not a huge fan of the card. SPA 8 will get to 4k range in my mind maybe even $3500 but I want a leaf limited before that card. Leaf Limited should be the #2 spot due to rarity.

[daveyc1]

Need to bring this thread back to the top. Anyone gotten any Brady Rookies lately? I am looking to pick up a Contenders. Waiting to see where the bottom may be before I buy.

[captionwanker]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

Need to bring this thread back to the top. Anyone gotten any Brady Rookies lately? I am looking to pick up a Contenders. Waiting to see where the bottom may be before I buy.

i got the bgs 8.5 Contenders on PWCC auction a couple weeks back for 21.6k. Hoping to add a SP authentic bgs 9.5 if the price drops below $14k or psa 9 for 10k. Brady's RC prices have been holding steady.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

Need to bring this thread back to the top. Anyone gotten any Brady Rookies lately? I am looking to pick up a Contenders. Waiting to see where the bottom may be before I buy.

I've been patiently waiting. The market, almost mirroring the stock market, seemed to go down significantly but then bounced back up.

Over the past few days I've been observing ebay 2000 Brady cards heavily. Personally I was looking at some college unis more than higher end Pats ones, so on that front the supply of Paramount, Pacific, serial numbered parallels of those, Vanguard, Prism, (zero Revolution to be seen) has dropped off a TON.

Seeing a lot of bowman regular and chrome, tons of the duo irrelevant TE/Brady fleer, some of the lower end skybox stuff. Some Crown Royale die cuts, less serial numbered on those too seen.

I think it's reflecting the stock market/economy heavily right now, and I think we'll see people selling off as/if the former falls. I'm not a fan of the Metal card but that seems relatively affordable. It's just so tough to find fair value on rarer cards, specifically the college uni parallels and serials because they're so manipulated.

The 2000 Paramount draft picks /325 went for 596 bucks for a PSA 9 on some "Mike Carbo" auction on ebay. That is a legitimate auction, that isn't shill bidded imo, and that's either the fair price or a bit of a steal at ~600 dollars. But then you see inferior BGS 9s going for 900+ right after and of course every BIN/Offer are the guys who bought the cheaper/fair auction prices and are selling it for 2x, 3x the price and are willing to "come down" to profit nearly 2x. Obviously.

TLDR - I'm waiting around, looking for cheap cards of fair prices. Haven't even bought a single Brady rookie and I've been looked for months now. Got outbidded a few times on some decent values.

[daveyc1]

I am being patient as well. just building my little war chest and waiting for the right contenders to come around. I am in no hurry. I think there will be a gradual decrease as Tom won't be playing and in the news as well as people being more interested in active players.

It will be interested to see how it plays out.