Hobby Bubble Peak Post-Mortem: Prospecting

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by brothertona

Everyone got in thinking he was the next Lebron

No we didn’t. He was fun to watch. A different kind of player. And he was affordable to collect at the time. One decent playoff run in five years is disappointing. But four 1st team all-NBA is so far beyond what anybody was projecting. As we’ve seen this year, MVP is a garbage narrative award. Luka will win it when the media wants him to.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

And at the risk of getting into political b.s., and I know you're trolling clearly, the last pandemic was a joke in relative terms.

What if the next pandemic which is comically the bar set here or black swan event is actually dire and the magnitude is higher? I don''t think people will give a flying F- about cards in that scenario.

It actually wasn’t the pandemic in itself, but the stimmy checks that came along with it.

If another pandemic came along with no stimmys, the market would predictably tank.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Why are you so negative, bro? If there’s another pandemic and KD wins three more rings, then it’ll be lambos for all the Durant bois.

Lol. Look man, for any actual KD collectors out there, the guy is a legit top 20 all time player and if you've spent years putting together a nice PC of him, that's fantastic.

The issue I've had all along is with the wanna be hobby experts advising people to buy his base rookie at $11k, then getting rewarded by the gods of the hobby.

It's reckless and people got hurt from it. I know a lot of people would respond to that with "Caveat Emptor", but that doesn't mean that the person who wanted to participate in this hobby and got burned will ever want to come back.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by oplum29

Austin Reeves is another dude that is being overhyped right now, and people are dropping globs of money on him.

the moment Lebron quits to join another superteam, Reeves' prices are going to drop like crazy, and you are going to have a lot of people holding his cards with no takers.

Movgoz. Delladoeva... a few other names come to mind.

[boxbuster7]

I think people are getting smarter. The cards that should be valuable are becoming the ones that are actually valuable. It has been a long time coming.

But with that said the damage has been done. Cards are not an investment vehicle. There is just too much fraud for them to be taken seriously. If graded cards have discrepancy in terms of their authenticity, it is never going to happen. Maybe AI will save us.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by brothertona

I think Luka is very much a long-term issue - is he actually a championship caliber player? Everyone got in thinking he was the next Lebron and what do you know - there isn't one - there is Lebron/Steph and move down 3 or 4 rungs and then you get to Giannis/Jokic stage.

Yeah, but that's still up for debate and it's not really going to be that heavily influenced by what happened this year.

If in the next 2 years he wins a title and and MVP, nobody is going to care about.

IMO, this year he lost time. It's maybe 2-3 more years without MVPs and titles that the hobby really starts to move on. Right now Luka is 24 with 4 NBA 1st team awards. If he's 27 and hasn't proven he can be MVP or win a title, then you really start to worry.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Lol. Look man, for any actual KD collectors out there, the guy is a legit top 20 all time player and if you've spent years putting together a nice PC of him, that's fantastic.

The issue I've had all along is with the wanna be hobby experts advising people to buy his base rookie at $11k, then getting rewarded by the gods of the hobby.

It's reckless and people got hurt from it. I know a lot of people would respond to that with "Caveat Emptor", but that doesn't mean that the person who wanted to participate in this hobby and got burned will ever want to come back.

It'd be interesting to know how many dollars lost were attributed to each influencer.

I can only imagine how many people (and how much money) were burnt from Hannah C's advice alone.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

It'd be interesting to know how many dollars lost were attributed to each influencer.

I can only imagine how many people (and how much money) were burnt from Hannah C's advice alone.

I'd say sports card investor takes the cake.

I really do feel bad for the normal people that got taken for a ride

but with that said DYOR is the most important advice I can give to anybody looking to get into cards. I spend more 3X more time doing research than I do buying. It used to be the other way around when the market was better.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by oplum29

the market is in a crazy spot right, i think it's almost at war with itself.

influencers and new money vs. hobbyist and old school

old school always knew there was a bubble. they invested and bought wisely. they knew the bubble would pop.

new money had no idea what a bubble was and never thought prices would drop, until they did.

also, a lot of pumpers and influencers who are more interested in the now, in the cool, in the trends, didn't help in the long run, but got their kicks in the short run.

i've never been much into "prospecting", but i get the buzz over it. i never thought twice about Zion, that was stupid. if i was throwing money around in NBA stuff, i would spend it on a stable player who is a playoff or MVP run away from cashing in. Luka isn't a bad investment at all. neither is Tatum, Trae Young, Booker, and Giannis.

Lamelo is good, but not at those crazy prices. Austin Reeves? lol

me personally, i'm a Spurs fan, so i'm good with my little Keldon Johnson collection. i think he's a Wemba, Scoot Henderson, or Miller away from becoming a name in the league.

but that's just me.

It is in a crazy time. Things are starting to shake loose that I thought would be in PCs forever.

I bought what to me is an absolutely grail PC item this past weekend and am moving some other items to refill my coffers. I've been pleased with the prices I've been getting for some of my items, but others seem to be way to low, to the point where I'd much rather have them in my PC then to move them for the prices I am seeing now.

The crazy part about guys like Lamelo is that they were sky high from the beginning. Luka, Trae, Tatum, etc, you could have gotten in early on and made a boatload. Even some Zion and Ja you could have done well with. But the later guys have nothing but bag holders with where they debuted at.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

In todays hobby market, it's the 2nd buyer in the flip that really dumbfounds me.

Original seller: Good for him for selling a Reaves that he probably ripped. Free money.

1st Buyer: KNOWS he can sell to an unsuspecting pawn that just buying the rumor. Get yours.

2nd Buyer / the Mark / the Pawn: You're an idiot!

And this is where the nuance is, because in the past this has been where the people who do their research could make it. Examples of guys who would have gotten ripped as rookies and sold, bought by the first flipper for a profit, then sat under the radar for a while the second (or third) flipper didn't have the patience to wait a few years:
-Giannis
-Jokic
-Embiid
-SGA
-Garland

It's a much shorter list than the one of players that started out high and were busts, but it's there.

Now there's a different question with the guys from the past few years and if there prices are still too high that even if they do pan out it might be a bad buy:
-Cade Cunningham
-Jalen Green
-Evan Mobley

All 3 of them are down big from release. People ripped, people bought to flip, now that 3rd buyer could be panicking if they are in too deep. And yet, there's a good chance that at least 1 of these 3 becomes an all nba guy at some point 4-5 years down the line, based on recent history. But is it enough to overcome the current price point?

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I'd say sports card investor takes the cake.

I really do feel bad for the normal people that got taken for a ride

but with that said DYOR is the most important advice I can give to anybody looking to get into cards. I spend more 3X more time doing research than I do buying. It used to be the other way around when the market was better.

One thing that people need to remember is that, no matter how much research you do on your own, you can never eliminate risk. It'll always remain. And the market of today can easily be completely different from the market of yesterday or tomorrow.

And never put your complete trust into someone else....especially someone who joined the hobby during the pandemic.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

What's your rationale for not selling that LeBron right now? Even at 1.8k if you could move it for that, even at 1.5k if you had to discount it?

That's what I don't understand. Do you think the market right now is sustainable? No one knows "for sure" but I think it's pretty safe to say we're still in a period here where you could sell that card for profit and buy it back in 1-2 years time or so at maybe 50% of the cost of that 2k figure. Maybe less. Even if LeBron won a ring this year that still might be true.

My rationale is different than some folks.

I'm a collector, first and foremost. And I am so far ahead of the game from what's happened the last few years, that it's all house money and I collect for enjoyment. I only buy cards and memorabilia that get me more enjoyment than the ones I already have.

Also, everyone in my collection, LeBron, Brady, Mahomes, Garland, Ben Simmons for criss-sake, I've taken profits on with the stuff I don't cherish as much and am more than free-rolling at this point.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

One thing that people need to remember is that, no matter how much research you do on your own, you can never eliminate risk. It'll always remain. And the market of today can easily be completely different from the market of yesterday or tomorrow.

And never put your complete trust into someone else....especially someone who joined the hobby during the pandemic.

I tell people that I am in the business of calculated risk. There is no such thing as a "sure thing." But when you do your own research, you are making educated guesses that tip the odds in your favor.

As you said Injuries are unpredictable a lot of the time. Or even steroids or other things...I took a huge hit on a few players in the last year.

But I was smart and diversified and am willing to sell for a loss instead of "holding the bag"

I find most people are too lazy to put in the amount of work that I put into cards. I pride myself on the amount of research I do. I also love the whole game of "prospecting." And if it isn't something you love, then you won't be good at it.

[BlockShotStop]

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Lol. Look man, for any actual KD collectors out there, the guy is a legit top 20 all time player and if you've spent years putting together a nice PC of him, that's fantastic.

The issue I've had all along is with the wanna be hobby experts advising people to buy his base rookie at $11k, then getting rewarded by the gods of the hobby.

It's reckless and people got hurt from it. I know a lot of people would respond to that with "Caveat Emptor", but that doesn't mean that the person who wanted to participate in this hobby and got burned will ever want to come back.

I prefer the bois who invested because of that, stay out of the hobby.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I'd say sports card investor takes the cake.

I really do feel bad for the normal people that got taken for a ride

but with that said DYOR is the most important advice I can give to anybody looking to get into cards. I spend more 3X more time doing research than I do buying. It used to be the other way around when the market was better.

I've said it before, for every purchase I make, I turn down about 20 other things I consider.

The whole thing was just the perfect storm for "knowing just enough to be dangerous"

It's easy to think you know a lot about sports. A lot people collected car ds at some point in their lives. It's easy to understand grading and Pop reports at a high level. But it's tough to live through the cyclical nature of this hobby, especially if you haven't experienced it before.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BlockShotStop

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

Are you kidding?

There are some small business owners who actually bought lambos, real lambos, with their relief fund money that was supposed to go to their employees.

It was probabaly one of the most corrupt “free money” grabs in the history of America, and many people got away with it.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by BlockShotStop

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

'Stimulus' by itself is an incomplete answer.

Things started heading up well before the pandemic. I remember when the pandemic hit and people were panic selling because they thought it would be the crash.

But if the stimulus money did have a big impact, it wasn't necessarily because everyone who got a check spent it directly on cards, it was because it was all getting pumped back into the system, and EVERYTHING, went up. So if you had stocks, crypto, NFTs, cards, rolexs... whatever, you were blowing up. There was so much liquidity compared to where the market used to be.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by BlockShotStop

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

People still are!

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

People still are!

I've paid more in commission fees this week!

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I've paid more in commission fees this week!

Killing it!!

[Ericc5Bears]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

literally every player had an insane peak during the covid bubble.

Bol Bol was one of the most lmao players who got hyped, right behind THT.

Trae Young was pretty hyped and never lived up to it.

Anfernee Simons got really hyped for seemingly no reason.

Lamelo hasn't lived up to the hype but he's been injured so hard to evaluate.

Honestly, not a single player besides Luka has lived up to the hype and prices.

I'd say shai and tatum also lived up to the hype. Tatum is a bit more debatable since he was already really good, but at the peak he was still just a solid all-star level player. I think him making the jump to a superstar on a team that will likely go to the finals 2 straight years counts as living up to the hype.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Ericc5Bears

I'd say shai and tatum also lived up to the hype. Tatum is a bit more debatable since he was already really good, but at the peak he was still just a solid all-star level player. I think him making the jump to a superstar on a team that will likely go to the finals 2 straight years counts as living up to the hype.

It's interesting to see all the Tatum-Luka comparisons right now.

One has better numbers, one has more success. They both have 1st team All NBA nods. Neither has an MVP or a championship.

Could possibly be the debate going forward.

[duron]

Originally Posted by Makakilo Cards

Really like this thread. Of all the bubble-specific things that affected card prices, this one is more cyclical and I'm sure it'll keep happening. I remember Vince Carter and Steve Francis cards going for what was top dollar at the time. My LCS guy was "schooling" me a little while ago about how buying rookies was a better long term play than retired HOFers. Don't get me wrong, do it for the fun, but how many times does history need to repeat itself?

LCS guy was probably well aware, not that he needed a history lesson.

Or maybe I’m just as stupid as he is.

[Ericc5Bears]

Originally Posted by tjforce

It's interesting to see all the Tatum-Luka comparisons right now.

One has better numbers, one has more success. They both have 1st team All NBA nods. Neither has an MVP or a championship.

Could possibly be the debate going forward.

Love Tatum but I think Luka is a step above him as a player. You swap Tatum for Luka on the Celtics and they're almost certainly on their way to back to back titles.