Hobby Bubble Peak Post-Mortem: Prospecting

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by Ericc5Bears

I'd say shai and tatum also lived up to the hype. Tatum is a bit more debatable since he was already really good, but at the peak he was still just a solid all-star level player. I think him making the jump to a superstar on a team that will likely go to the finals 2 straight years counts as living up to the hype.

How is Tatum more debatable than Shai lol? SGA has had one good random year, this year. Tatum who I think is overrated and possibly a fraud STILL after that 50 point game 7, as a Celtics fan...

He still has been good for multiple years, been to the finals, now is going to the finals again probably (fav), and was top 4-5 in MVP voting. Beyond this all anyway, I don't think Doncic/Tatum/SGA, Trae/Zion/Ball/Morant would have ever and can never live up to the hype. It was never a possibility beyond astronomical odds. The market was pumped and the bar is set at literally Bron/Jordan talent and fame.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by Ericc5Bears

Love Tatum but I think Luka is a step above him as a player. You swap Tatum for Luka on the Celtics and they're almost certainly on their way to back to back titles.

Yeah again, this is so easy to say. And I'm not biased towards Tatum at all, I think he's a (semi) fraud. I think he's walmart Kobe with a bit of difference in his game. But Doncic has...done what exactly?

He's so f'ing good but he's not even making the damn playoffs? I like Luka too, don't hate him. But I think people are still in HYPE mode, overrating the balls off these prospects ironically within this thread too. These dudes have proven nothing. People just assume there's going to be a next LeBron, KD, Curry. Well there might not be. There might just be a period of lower top end talent in the league for 10-15 years.

I think Giannis, Doncic, Booker, Tatum, Ball, Zion obviously/injury, Trae, Poole, Edwards, etc. Are ALL overrated. And these are the guys that didn't flat out bust like a Fultz/other Ball, Dennis Smith, etc.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by Ericc5Bears

Love Tatum but I think Luka is a step above him as a player. You swap Tatum for Luka on the Celtics and they're almost certainly on their way to back to back titles.

This is just flat out wrong.

[miscus555]

I guess people get bored collecting legitimate goats and their favorite teams/players. And if you happen to come across so things to spec on in your travels, great. That’s what I used to do and continue to do. I could never find myself hunting down unproven players unless they hit me in the face first.
I don’t really have any sympathy for people who are currently swimming in ultra modern they bought at the height. That flooded grading companies to the point of having them shut down. If you are always impulsive you are eventually going to fail because you will make a couple bad decisions along the way.
If I had 2k to spend on cards, I’m not spending it to rip tons of modern packs, I’m spending it on a player(s) whose name will be known for ages through multiple generations. Or I’m spending it on unopened product that has said player(s) in it.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by miscus555

I guess people get bored collecting legitimate goats and their favorite teams/players. And if you happen to come across so things to spec on in your travels, great. That’s what I used to do and continue to do. I could never find myself hunting down unproven players unless they hit me in the face first.
I don’t really have any sympathy for people who are currently swimming in ultra modern they bought at the height. That flooded grading companies to the point of having them shut down. If you are always impulsive you are eventually going to fail because you will make a couple bad decisions along the way.
If I had 2k to spend on cards, I’m not spending it to rip tons of modern packs, I’m spending it on a player(s) whose name will be known for ages through multiple generations. Or I’m spending it on unopened product that has said player(s) in it.

A couple things...

-People like to gamble. And it's fun as hell to be in on the ground floor for a guy. The issue is if the ground floor is already sky high, you may be in trouble.

-People for for hype. If Mahomes can come out of nowhere and throw 50 touchdowns after playing just 1 game the prior year, then why can't Zach Wilson do the game after a year where the MILF rumors broke?

[miscus555]

Originally Posted by tjforce

And I think that's the ultimate problem that's going to hurt the hobby.

Folks that have been around for a long time that were in early and knew what they were doing are still ahead (especially if they took some profits when things really got out of hand). Does it bother me that a LeBron I paid $400 for years ago is only doing $2,000 now, when it was doing probably $8,000 at it's peak? No, not really.

But the person who paid $11K for the PSA 10 Durant Rookie BASE, and has watched it lose 90%+ of it's value... that person is burnt and they'll never get that money back. Now expand that to Zion, Ja, Trae, Simmons, Lance, Mac Jones, etc.

Once I saw prices go crazy in 2020-2021 and you couldn’t get a card graded without waiting a year, I literally bought cards 2 times….2 topps chrome Jimmy G rookies for $10 per, and I found a couple topps heritage baseball blasters in target that I bought.

I sold some Jordan and kobe stuff when last dance came out and pretty much sold basketball 90’s 2nd-3rd tier lots I had hanging around like chrome and ex2000. I didn’t have time to sell more so basically no time to be a flipper but I seriously just held during that time. May have missed out on $$$$ from selling more but definitely didn’t lose from buying

[razorsharp]

I think Anthony Edwards is ahead schedule in his development but even his prices have tanked. Performance doesn't even matter (to a certain extent) right now.

[Ericc5Bears]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

This is just flat out wrong.

I'm sure based on your username that is a totally unbiased take

[Ericc5Bears]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

How is Tatum more debatable than Shai lol? SGA has had one good random year, this year. Tatum who I think is overrated and possibly a fraud STILL after that 50 point game 7, as a Celtics fan...

He still has been good for multiple years, been to the finals, now is going to the finals again probably (fav), and was top 4-5 in MVP voting. Beyond this all anyway, I don't think Doncic/Tatum/SGA, Trae/Zion/Ball/Morant would have ever and can never live up to the hype. It was never a possibility beyond astronomical odds. The market was pumped and the bar is set at literally Bron/Jordan talent and fame.

You missed the point. At the peak of the "hype" in the card market (late 2020), tatum was a 21 year all star averaging 23-7 on a good team and had already been the leading scorer on an ECF team at 19 years old. That meant his hype level was incredibly high and for him to "live up to" the hype, he would need to be a top 5ish player in the league and probably win a ring. Shai on the other hand was a late lottery pick who looked really good his first 2 years in the league but his hype level was more of "this guy can maybe be a solid all-star level player some day". I don't think even his biggest believers could've imagined within a few years he would average 31-6-5. So yes tatum is definitely better than Shai, but shai lived up to his hype more.

[Ericc5Bears]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

Yeah again, this is so easy to say. And I'm not biased towards Tatum at all, I think he's a (semi) fraud. I think he's walmart Kobe with a bit of difference in his game. But Doncic has...done what exactly?

He's so f'ing good but he's not even making the damn playoffs? I like Luka too, don't hate him. But I think people are still in HYPE mode, overrating the balls off these prospects ironically within this thread too. These dudes have proven nothing. People just assume there's going to be a next LeBron, KD, Curry. Well there might not be. There might just be a period of lower top end talent in the league for 10-15 years.

I think Giannis, Doncic, Booker, Tatum, Ball, Zion obviously/injury, Trae, Poole, Edwards, etc. Are ALL overrated. And these are the guys that didn't flat out bust like a Fultz/other Ball, Dennis Smith, etc.

Literally less than a year ago averaged 32-10-6 in the playoffs and eliminated the 64 win Suns on the way to the WCF lmao

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Ericc5Bears

Literally less than a year ago averaged 32-10-6 in the playoffs and eliminated the 64 win Suns on the way to the WCF lmao

Add to that 4 1st team all NBAs.

I keep saying it, if he's 27-28 and doesnt have an MVP or Championship, then it's really time to start asking if he's the generational talent we thought, or if he's just another stat guy.

But he's 24 and has built quite the resume, even if it's not quite what some thought it'd be.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Add to that 4 1st team all NBAs.

I keep saying it, if he's 27-28 and doesnt have an MVP or Championship, then it's really time to start asking if he's the generational talent we thought, or if he's just another stat guy.

But he's 24 and has built quite the resume, even if it's not quite what some thought it'd be.

This is especially hilarious considering everyone thought he was too fat and slow to be an NBA star pre draft

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

Yeah again, this is so easy to say. And I'm not biased towards Tatum at all, I think he's a (semi) fraud. I think he's walmart Kobe with a bit of difference in his game. But Doncic has...done what exactly?

He's so f'ing good but he's not even making the damn playoffs? I like Luka too, don't hate him. But I think people are still in HYPE mode, overrating the balls off these prospects ironically within this thread too. These dudes have proven nothing. People just assume there's going to be a next LeBron, KD, Curry. Well there might not be. There might just be a period of lower top end talent in the league for 10-15 years.

I think Giannis, Doncic, Booker, Tatum, Ball, Zion obviously/injury, Trae, Poole, Edwards, etc. Are ALL overrated. And these are the guys that didn't flat out bust like a Fultz/other Ball, Dennis Smith, etc.

Not to pile on, but you're arguing against how prospecting works. Which is fine if you would rather "invest" in established stars with near-complete resumes, but the assumption in those cases is that it's all already built in to the price. The whole idea of prospecting is that you're getting in early when the guy is cheap, and reaping the benefits when he pans out. But as you've mentioned in other posts, the whole industry got ahead of itself and so people were paying ridiculous premiums for guys that had zero chance of actually becoming a superstar. It also daisy-chained into pumps of 90s junk slabs, NFTs, non-sport, and now vintage. Which again, you are well aware of. Prospecting can still be profitable, it's just a lot harder these days because of the buy-in price.

Also as BO's resident "lol look at that idiot collecting Shai cards" guy, I think he's surpassed whatever "hype" there was for him, because there really wasn't any. For the longest time, I was grabbing cards for 1/5th to 1/10th the price of guys like Trae or Morant. Now I think his cards are generally worth as much or more than those guys. Mostly because they've come crashing down, but also because I feel like his growth has been quite a bit more organic due to the lack of influencers / hype.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

This is especially hilarious considering everyone thought he was too fat and slow to be an NBA star pre draft

There's 2 vantage points though with you can look at Luka:

1. His 2018 draft 3rd overall spot, where he was picked behind Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley. He's definitely achieved from this starting point, or

2. The view after his 2nd season, when some of his fans/collectors/investors (not all, just some) started comparing him to LeBron. He's fallen short of that nearly impossible feat thus far, but not even as far as some would like you to believe.

[ninjacookies]

$7 TJ Warren flu game 6th year 'Pacers rc' pink ice BINs.


Take me back.

[1980bust]

Before bubble: Ignore the noise, buy what you like.

During bubble: Ignore the noise, buy what you like.

Post-bubble: Ignore the noise, buy what you like.

Still here, still enjoying the hobby

That said, I've always made it a rule to avoid bass because, well, they're bass. That served me pretty well.

[CitizunKane]

TJ Warren . . . oh my. I recall after a few big games in the bubble I looked in my commons pile and found three of his base Prizm rookies (2014-15, I think?). Listed them for $99 OBO. Sold instantly.

I raise a glass to you, my TJ Warren buyer, wherever you may be tonight. I hope the past three years have brought you good health and happiness. I took that money, along with thousands more, and bought Topps Project 2020 cards (which I recently sold for around 7 cents on the dollar). Circle of life. Nature heals itself.

[ninjacookies]

Slangin $15 2nd year Good Hair bass to thirsty Balenciaga opportunists made me feel like Lloyd Christmas for a good stretch.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by Ericc5Bears

Literally less than a year ago averaged 32-10-6 in the playoffs and eliminated the 64 win Suns on the way to the WCF lmao

So he's made the WCF and lost it once in 5 years, has zero MVPs, and just finished a season where he wasn't remotely considered for the award and his team didn't even make the playoffs in a league where it's make-a-wish and almost everyone makes it. Got it. That's lmao territory indeed.

And I'm not a Doncic hater, I like the player. More so I'm talking about delusional morons who bought into his cards and already are taking fat Ls who are probably coping and smoking hopium for the unrealistic, astronomical bar he has to cross.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by CitizunKane

TJ Warren . . . oh my. I recall after a few big games in the bubble I looked in my commons pile and found three of his base Prizm rookies (2014-15, I think?). Listed them for $99 OBO. Sold instantly.

I raise a glass to you, my TJ Warren buyer, wherever you may be tonight. I hope the past three years have brought you good health and happiness. I took that money, along with thousands more, and bought Topps Project 2020 cards (which I recently sold for around 7 cents on the dollar). Circle of life. Nature heals itself.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Slangin $15 2nd year Good Hair bass to thirsty Balenciaga opportunists made me feel like Lloyd Christmas for a good stretch.

Ahh. Those were the days.

I’ll tell the local children, who are too young to remember, all about it. And about how a new era shall rise again, once the hype beasts grow up to have well paying careers….. at the fast food joints they once abandoned.

Til then…. Hoard all the Melendez Brothers bass you can!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ericc5Bears]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

So he's made the WCF and lost it once in 5 years, has zero MVPs, and just finished a season where he wasn't remotely considered for the award and his team didn't even make the playoffs in a league where it's make-a-wish and almost everyone makes it. Got it. That's lmao territory indeed.

And I'm not a Doncic hater, I like the player. More so I'm talking about delusional morons who bought into his cards and already are taking fat Ls who are probably coping and smoking hopium for the unrealistic, astronomical bar he has to cross.

If you bought his cards anytime before mid-late 2020 you're still up, probably big. If you bought any time after that you're down. The second statement also applies to literally every single player in the NBA outside of maybe like 3-5 guys.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Til then…. Hoard all the Melendez Brothers bass you can!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A Sam Vincent feat. Ahegao MJ heirloom for every generation.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/38560287023...Bk9SR_yAu66EYg

It's only right.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Not to pile on, but you're arguing against how prospecting works. Which is fine if you would rather "invest" in established stars with near-complete resumes, but the assumption in those cases is that it's all already built in to the price. The whole idea of prospecting is that you're getting in early when the guy is cheap, and reaping the benefits when he pans out. But as you've mentioned in other posts, the whole industry got ahead of itself and so people were paying ridiculous premiums for guys that had zero chance of actually becoming a superstar. It also daisy-chained into pumps of 90s junk slabs, NFTs, non-sport, and now vintage. Which again, you are well aware of. Prospecting can still be profitable, it's just a lot harder these days because of the buy-in price.

Also as BO's resident "lol look at that idiot collecting Shai cards" guy, I think he's surpassed whatever "hype" there was for him, because there really wasn't any. For the longest time, I was grabbing cards for 1/5th to 1/10th the price of guys like Trae or Morant. Now I think his cards are generally worth as much or more than those guys. Mostly because they've come crashing down, but also because I feel like his growth has been quite a bit more organic due to the lack of influencers / hype.

That's fine I don't consider your post piling on at all. I stand by what I said. I think Luka is a good player, top 10 in the league at this point sure thing, scores, making all-star games, all-nba teams. Cool.

But the buy-in price was never cheap for him. And then the bubble immediately happened. So it's not all about Luka Doncic the prospect, his prices should probably be cheaper right now than they were when he was a rookie honestly. Because let's be realistic (anyone who isn't invested can) he hasn't won an MVP or came close to a title in 5 years now.

Are we projecting the Mavs to be good in 2023? No. He's very likely not winning the MVP and/or title next year. He's under contract until 2026. So yeah, I think we can both agree the bar set is completely unrealistic and unreasonable, but it is what it is. That's the bar. The way his hype and prices are set, Doncic has to be the next Jordan/Bron level GOAT level player. It's akin to buying MSFT at 600 dollars a share right now.

It's not mutually exclusive that Luka Doncic is a really good player AND is still not living up to his hype and never will (97-99.9% odds)

[drobfan8]

These guys are not the first and won't be the last young guns who will have their prices blasted once supply and demand sorts itself out.

Didn't people pay $2k for Ben Gordon and Darius Miles Rookies?

Yikes.

The Hobby will keep kicking on. Because there are still so many that love it.

Zion still has a ton of potential.
Luka, well, he is still God and gonna take over the league.

Ja is too thug for my liking.

Even if Tatum wins a title, he's up against the likes of Kobe as far as Hobby pricing goes. D. Wade anyone?

There has been way too many dollarydoos spent. And even when we talk about tanking prices, there is still absurd amounts of money being spent or "spent" every day on ebay, goldin, PWCC.