2023 Bowman Sapphire Baseball Odds--PR Down?

[Chiwsox2005]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

What’s like a drew Jones base going to go for? I ripped a lot of 2020 sapphire up to roughly 500 a box but those were obv different times with jassson base going for close to 400, Robert 200 and a handful of others around 100. You were pretty much guaranteed close to 200 in base with every box, can’t imagine it’s even close to that now yet box prices roughly the same

I'd guess they come out of the gate around $80ish. If I remember correctly, Elly and Chourio came out of the gate somewhere between $75-$100 last year. I think both are now around $40-$50.

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by Chiwsox2005

I'd guess they come out of the gate around $80ish. If I remember correctly, Elly and Chourio came out of the gate somewhere between $75-$100 last year. I think both are now around $40-$50.

Chourio may have risen to that but at Sapphire's release he wasn't. Remember, he didn't start at Low-A until May & didn't hit his 2nd HR of the year until June.

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[Jolten Joe]

I'd also guess $75-$80 on Druw Jones base but if he goes on a hot streak north of $100 easy. Sapphire is all about the Autos the base is usually pretty reasonable.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

I'd also guess $75-$80 on Druw Jones base but if he goes on a hot streak north of $100 easy. Sapphire is all about the Autos the base is usually pretty reasonable.

Is he still hurt?

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[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by JRX

Is he still hurt?

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Not sure haven't really seen any updates other than he went on the 7 day DL in late April

[CxL]

I feel like the people downplaying this products projectors are the same people saying cosmic would be a bust.

[cj828282]

First live cards are hitting the bay.

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by cj828282

First live cards are hitting the bay.

Anybody busting at this point are doing so looking for a big auto hit and are posting the junk to make a couple bucks. There is not a single base card that would hit more than $60-$80 max unless people are just idiots.

I plan on busting 1 box just to say I did the rest are going in the closet for a couple of years to marinate then I will decide if to rip or sell sealed for a substantial profit.

[FatButcher]

I've only seen 2 boxes broken so far, the QC will be hard to judge on that sample. But I will say the Druw Jones pulled was 80/20 top to bottom and saw another with similar left to right. No idea on surface of course. Seems not as bad a topps chrome update at least, so there's that.

[Mossed]

I saw a break and this guy opened 2 boxes and pulled the same auto of this mediocre guy. It's like yikes. There goes like $800+ assuming he got both at $375.

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

Anybody busting at this point are doing so looking for a big auto hit and are posting the junk to make a couple bucks. There is not a single base card that would hit more than $60-$80 max unless people are just idiots.

I plan on busting 1 box just to say I did the rest are going in the closet for a couple of years to marinate then I will decide if to rip or sell sealed for a substantial profit.

A blowout fortune teller!

[mossoholic]

Sure looks like no sealed cases from the dutch auction.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by Mossed

I saw a break and this guy opened 2 boxes and pulled the same auto of this mediocre guy. It's like yikes. There goes like $800+ assuming he got both at $375.

I keep seeing posts like this and I'm finally getting around to being sold on my decision to buy 3 Sapphire boxes at an average of $400/per. Some may say I've talked myself into it and well, not completely offbase but I think some data points are in order...

I've seen roughly 1278 Hobby boxes broken thanks to the Houdini breaks and as I've done the tracker for all of them, I feel at least somewhat qualified to comment on the value in Hobby.

Going 10 days back, I'd have put the breakeven number at roughly 40% of hobby boxes. There's plenty of color autos in every hobby case.

Out of roughly 1200 non-insert Autos (1199 ATM), there have been 405 base autos, 339 refractor/speckle, 243 Purple/Blue/Blue Lunar, 212 Atomic or better.

So, odds break down as follows for Hobby autos (again, excluding inserts):
Base Auto: 34%
Refractor/Speckle Numbered Auto (#'d to 299-499): 28%
Purple/Blue Auto (#'d to 150-250): 20%
Atomic or Better (#'d to 100 or less): 18%

I think we can count all Atomic or better as wins, though there are several very good prospects whose atomics have been selling for $150-200 lately. Still, you have to figure these boxes are wins, regardless of whether they break even or not. Some boxes have one color that makes it a win, but these are few and far between and others have a run of color/color paper that makes up a significant chunk of the buy-in. I'd feel safe sticking around 30% are BE or close.

Your lower tier boxes of Hobby may have a $5 base auto and $40 in other flotsam. Let's call the floor $50ish.

I've seen a LOT of great retail breaks on here. So much so, that I keep thinking I'm due and ordering more for myself.

I'm now at 14 blasters (roughly $420) and have hit one paper auto of a nobody, non-1st Bowman pitcher, a couple chrome color worth maybe $20 total, and some color paper that I would feel fine gifting to local kids. The floor on a Hobby box worth of Blasters (~9) is crazy, crazy low unless you really value paper base. I'd call it $30 but that's a lot of work to make $30. Again, I've seen plenty of winning retail breaks on here so the ceiling is there but I haven't witnessed it and can't comment on even a marginal blaster.

I noticed a couple posts mentioning retail 24-count boxes as being a good bang for the buck and, stupidly, snagged 3 for roughly the cost of 12 blasters ($360ish).

My results:
Colin Peluse Base Auto
Paper Auto that I couldn't give away
Printing Plate (!!!) of Fraymi De Leon 1st Bowman
Gold Axel Sanchez 1st
Gold Shimmer Roderick Arias
Green Yilber Herrera 1st
Purple Jace Avina 1st
5 colored paper, best being Purple Peyton Graham 1st and Purple Henry Ramos 1st

Not the best rip but a good amount of good color (3 chrome color with sub /100 PRs). I think the floor here is maybe a bit higher than a Hobby floor but I suspect the ceiling is significantly lower. I'd consider that an above average break for 3 retail boxes and that's maybe $100 back on my $360.

Which brings us to Sapphire...
I've got boxes incoming but I have a hard time believing I'll have a worse expected ROI than any of the other formats. I could get 3 Kumar Rocker autos and hit no decent color and zero 1sts of note and I'm probably still getting a floor of $80-100. Yeah, fewer cards and all that but I'm fine not having a bunch of paper base clogging stuff up.

The TL/DR here is that none of these are priced in a consumer friendly way. None of them. They're all risky in their own way. But I don't feel Sapphire is inherently worse a gamble than Hobby/Blasters or Retail. Best bet is singles.

[CowboyDan]

Just saw the Mervis papa auto get pulled by Midwest Box Breaks.

[Jolten Joe]

just watched Stryker breaks do a 2 box break very very small sample size and he pulled 2 autos of the same exact guy. same guy, same color everything. Hopefully he pans out but what a gut punch. He did pull a Druw Jones base though.

[BabaORiley]

As promised, I'm posting my break here for all to ridicule and/or fawn over.

First off, a note: I ordered 2 at $375 and 1 at $450. Guess which one still shows "processing"...

Here was box 1, which I'd rate as pretty close to a "Floor" outcome but I'll give a D+ as some will be worse.

My first thoughts on opening box 1 is there should NEVER be this type of condition issue when you're paying $12/card or whatever. Roughly 1/3 of the cards in this box looked like this:


My best base were the Gleider 1st, Arroyo 1st, Graham 1st and maybe Colby Thomas 1st. I also got an Elijah Green base which I appreciated after buying 121 cases of his in Houdini's break.
The "good stuff":

I had joked about getting Andres Mesa autos and there he was, right out of the gate.
Jacob Berry Aqua /55 was the clear winner on color. Orange Elijah Green /50 is another that I'll appreciate more than most given my adventures with him...

Box 2 was better. I'll give it a B grade. None of the severe condition issues of Box 1.
Notable base (could have used that Cam Collier for the Reds 1st run):


Some other base:


The better "good stuff":


I'm not huge on Lizandro Rodriguez but I like him more than BA and a couple other sites.
Harrison is top-notch for a Pitching prospect and Montes was one of the top names in the product.

Now, one final gripe: Green/Aqua & Orange all being numbered /50-/60 just kinda sucks. And Orange should always be /25.

One final edit:
As posted earlier, I'd gone through 3 retail boxes and 14 blasters (almost EXACTLY the cost of these 2 boxes) and have a Gold Axel Sanchez chrome and a Printing Plate of a D'list prospect to show for it.

I'd rather have $3k worth of Sapphire than retail Bowman. That said, I do think a little bit of the perceived value is sucked out by the 3 parallels being numbered 50/, /55 & /60. I appreciate the intent to keep production down but I'd rather have Purple /15, Orange /25, Green /50 and Aqua /75 or something similar.

If Fanatics has an intern reading these boards, 2 quick pieces of advice:
1 - Get the auto list right. There were guys who were no-brainers to be auto subjects in Sapphire (De Paula, Spencer Jones, Montes, Gabe Gonzalez, Jorge, Lara, Rada) and Ryan Clifford signed enough for Bowman that it wouldn't have killed to get him in here.

2 - Obviously every card can't be perfect but you cannot have the QC issues that you seem to have if this is going to be a luxury product - and at $400/box, that's what it is. Have your printer in Italy do these. They get it right on thicker card stock! Failing that, switch printers over here. Nothing sucks worse than spending up for a nice product and having 1/2 the box come out 80/20 on L/R centering. Be better.

[hermanotarjeta]

Thanks for sharing!

[ccovert74]

I was able to get 4 boxes total, 2 at 475 and 2 at 450. The 2 at 450 showed up today. I never pulled a red but the first box had 2 red no Druw jones at all. Second box had 1 base Druw. I received the same auto so I guess Im now the Edouard Julien guy.

[Merkle14]

Those Montes are sexy but overall kinda yikes. Most concerning is quality that just can’t happen with a lower print run expensive product. Man of your word and I respect you for opening yourself, much props.

[Boo]

Red to 10, orange to 50? Dumb. Does that mean more made?

[DJP73]

So I have seen at least 5 breaks with duplicate Autos in the break. Really bad job Fanatics. Same thing happened on Houdini breaks with duplicate color

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by DJP73

So I have seen at least 5 breaks with duplicate Autos in the break. Really bad job Fanatics. Same thing happened on Houdini breaks with duplicate color

With such a low print run you are going to have that especially when people are buying multiple boxes. There are only so many boxes that can have non duplicate pulls. The more you bought the more likely you are going to pull multiple of the same card.

[Merkle14]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

With such a low print run you are going to have that especially when people are buying multiple boxes. There are only so many boxes that can have non duplicate pulls. The more you bought the more likely you are going to pull multiple of the same card.

Nah fanatics is def having correlation issues, you can see that in retail blaster for 2023 too. Cases have had multiple dupes across hobbys. It’s def worse than normal so far in 2023 imo.

[RainCityShecks]

Originally Posted by Merkle14

Nah fanatics is def having correlation issues, you can see that in retail blaster for 2023 too. Cases have had multiple dupes across hobbys. It’s def worse than normal so far in 2023 imo.

Last year I bought two boxes of Bowman Chrome (2022) and got two Yendry Rojas autos (/25 and /50).

[IND2FLA]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

With such a low print run you are going to have that especially when people are buying multiple boxes. There are only so many boxes that can have non duplicate pulls. The more you bought the more likely you are going to pull multiple of the same card.

With base I agree. With color/autos I disagree.

You shouldn't open two boxes shipped together and get two parallels of the same player - let alone same player and same color.

It has happened a lot with Bowman this year both regular hobby and 1st edition..

I opened 4 boxes of 1st Edition and got two Jackson Chourio inserts (orange and yellow). Very thankful it was Chourio but could have just as easily been a throw away prospect.

It will be interesting to see if poor collation continues throughout sapphire.