Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[boxbuster7]

I think the price of wax can still come down some. Hopefully topps slows down the presses a little bit. But honestly I think the singles market is pretty stable right now. Sure, if you're opening boxes things aren't lucrative right now, but if you are buying the right players singles you can do just fine.

And Ohtani is literally the most obvious player to hold that you really can't go wrong having any of his RCs.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by regularp

I doubt that changes until baseball gets a major injection of genuine superstars. Performance is way too erratic compared to NBA/NFL stars. Look at the OPS or HR leaders. It's basically a new top ten every year.

Guys will win a Cy Young or MVP and be an also-ran within a year or two.

Recent Cys that regressed or flamed out (2020 doesn't count):

Alcantara
Ray
Snell
Kluber
Porcello
Keuchel
Arrieta

MVPs:

Bryant
Donaldson
Stanton
Bellinger
Yelich
McCutchen

Originally Posted by regularp

You named three guys. One of which, has two great seasons out of six, though he's working on his third at age 31.

Compare that to the amount of stars in the NBA and NFL; it's not even close. The stars in basketball and football have notable postseason performances as well.

How often do you see baseball players in commercials? They have next to no endorsements. There's no national star power right now.

I'm not the one making a list. I'm just curious why you made a claim that MLB lacks "genuine superstars" while leaving the three no sheet genuine superstars off your list. Are they only genuine when they win a World Series? Sure, Mike Trout isn't Ryan Reynolds out there making commercials but is it really MLB's fault or is Trout just not like that? As for Judge, 2 MVP's on the Yankees is pretty big along with being named the Captain. Ohtani speaks for himself, he's a legend in the making. Heck, another group you failed to mention are Mookie, Harper and Kershaw whom are models of consistency. Aside from them, practically every team has a franchise player. Another factor is games played. The NFL is 17, NBA is 82 and MLB is 162. How much consistency you want?

So is your argument poor marketing by MLB or that the players aren't genuine superstars?

As for the NFL, its about QB's and even then, the flame out is relatively the same. Aside from Mahomes and A-Rod, what active QB has had the consistent success you claim and are genuine superstars?

[mrb842]

I guess I didn't realize until this weekends show, but is football that big a deal now that once July hits, these shows are going to be football focused because people want to get in on the young qbs? I say this as someone who has never bought a football slab or any of the other pump nonsense.

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Comps aren't even reliable due to widespread shill bidding and fake sales:
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1510121

Sure it does, but that doesn't explain the offers I get on cards you don't even see very often. Had a 1999 Upper Deck Terrell Davis Game Jersey card up. It's basically a hard to come by card. In the last 2 years only 2 had sold on eBay, the last one did $74, and mine was the only one listed and it had 6 watchers. I listed it for $75 and after a week some guy messages me and says, "Oh the card looks beat up, I'll offer $30." The card was NM, so I told him no thanks and 3 days later it sold for full price. I would have dealt with the dude if he hadn't asked for 60% off from the start. Be reasonable. Do your research.

Happens quite often.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by netmasters

If what Corbin Carroll is doing is not setting the world on fire than maybe your expectations are too high. Elly as well but his is very short.

The Yankees and Dodgers are both over .560 They may not have the best records in baseball but they are doing just fine.

Your fourth reason is probably the cause for the rest of the reasons which are reasonable.

Thanks for proving my point. Corbin Carroll is doing fantastic, but he's on the Diamondbacks who have basically no collector base, and limited history.

Unless the Diamondbacks and Carroll have sustained success, this will mean nothing long term.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mrb842

The NFL moved to a similar model in 2002. Before the new divisions reset the scheduling there was no guarantee a tom brady would ever play in dallas or a favre would ever play in miami.

Does it move the needle for cards? No. But it does not hurt.

Originally Posted by ironfireman

So, cars were safer in 1909 because there were fewer traffic fatalities?

In the 1950s Baseball was the #1 sport in America and had been for years. There were 3 TV stations, no internet or Superbowl and the NBA was 5-10 yr old.

Yes, correlation does not imply causation. But the lack of interleague play didn't prevent MLB players from being household names in the 60s.

In the current age of social media and online highlight videos, it's hard to believe that interleague play will make MLB players more widely known.

Certain modern NFL players are household names not because of scheduling reasons, but because football is America's favorite sport and NFL games get the biggest TV ratings.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Thanks for proving my point. Corbin Carroll is doing fantastic, but he's on the Diamondbacks who have basically no collector base, and limited history.

Unless the Diamondbacks and Carroll have sustained success, this will mean nothing long term.

A Corbin Carroll Topps Black in poor condition(max PSA 8 worthy) just sold for $1100. That's 20% more than a Wander Black PSA 9 sold for a month ago. His prices are already surging and he is setting the world on fire, many, like you, just don't realize it yet

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by thenightman

Sure it does, but that doesn't explain the offers I get on cards you don't even see very often. Had a 1999 Upper Deck Terrell Davis Game Jersey card up. It's basically a hard to come by card. In the last 2 years only 2 had sold on eBay, the last one did $74, and mine was the only one listed and it had 6 watchers. I listed it for $75 and after a week some guy messages me and says, "Oh the card looks beat up, I'll offer $30." The card was NM, so I told him no thanks and 3 days later it sold for full price. I would have dealt with the dude if he hadn't asked for 60% off from the start. Be reasonable. Do your research.

Happens quite often.

Comps for rarer cards should be less trustworthy because they would be easier to manipulate pricing on.

It seems like comps are self reinforcing -- buyers and sellers use comps for pricing, regardless of their reliability, and as a result, become the primary method of valuing cards.

Cards should be valued primarily on things like desirability and scarcity. But it's easier for buyers and sellers to use comps, even if many of them are fake.

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by mrb842

I guess I didn't realize until this weekends show, but is football that big a deal now that once July hits, these shows are going to be football focused because people want to get in on the young qbs? I say this as someone who has never bought a football slab or any of the other pump nonsense.

Yep even more so now that they came out with Bowman University where you can chase all the top QB's coming out of college with the 1st Bowman logo before they have main set Rc's just like Baseball.

[theshowandme]

Bowman University is not a serious set. If you are putting that in your showcases… yikes!


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[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Bowman University is not a serious set. If you are putting that in your showcases… yikes!


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Regular base stuff and anything #'d over 25 yes but those extremely low #'d cards especially 1st Bowman Auto color of the right player(s) do well.

It's just like anything else these days. 99% trash bin but that 1%.....wowza

[hammerva]

Next week is the CSA Chantilly Virginia show. Always the best or 2nd best show in the east coast. Mostly the usual names in terms of autograph although plenty of NFL draft picks in this one. But the feature right now is the Undertaker. I know he has been doing a ton of signings in the last 3 or 4 years but didn't know he was doing card shows. And of course it is the most expensive

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by BBases31

A Corbin Carroll Topps Black in poor condition(max PSA 8 worthy) just sold for $1100. That's 20% more than a Wander Black PSA 9 sold for a month ago. His prices are already surging and he is setting the world on fire, many, like you, just don't realize it yet

Outlier?

Let's see how things look at the end of the year.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by hammerva

Next week is the CSA Chantilly Virginia show. Always the best or 2nd best show in the east coast. Mostly the usual names in terms of autograph although plenty of NFL draft picks in this one. But the feature right now is the Undertaker. I know he has been doing a ton of signings in the last 3 or 4 years but didn't know he was doing card shows. And of course it is the most expensive

Bringing my ear protection since the loud speaker is horrendous and it never ends with the announcements.

Although i am happy that they moved the autographs to that separate room in the last few shows. The line used to be insane and annoying for people who just care about cards.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by BBases31

A Corbin Carroll Topps Black in poor condition(max PSA 8 worthy) just sold for $1100. That's 20% more than a Wander Black PSA 9 sold for a month ago. His prices are already surging and he is setting the world on fire, many, like you, just don't realize it yet

He has a legit shot at winning MVP, which would be the first time since Ichiro in 2001 (but was Ichiro really a "rookie"?). Corbin would be the first true rookie to win MVP since Fred Lynn in 1975.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Outlier?

No. He is leading the NL in WAR, higher OPS than Acuna. He's 22

Let's see how things look at the end of the year.

Bruh. Try following the actual sport instead of just cards

Edit: I did a quick look through your post history because I thought no way those 15,000 posts are coming from baseball and yup, nearly all NBA and NFL. Makes sense now. I promise Corbin will be on the basketball collector crossover's, hype chasing radar by the All-Star break

[BBases31]

deleted.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

He has a legit shot at winning MVP, which would be the first time since Ichiro in 2001 (but was Ichiro really a "rookie"?). Corbin would be the first true rookie to win MVP since Fred Lynn in 1975.

user name checks out

haha

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I promise Corbin will be on the basketball collector crossover's, hype chasing radar by the All-Star break

I wonder if he'd enter the HR derby. The derby is what really launched JROD into the stratosphere. If Corbin were to put on a similar performance, people will go even more nuts for his cardboard.

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Comps for rarer cards should be less trustworthy because they would be easier to manipulate pricing on.

It seems like comps are self reinforcing -- buyers and sellers use comps for pricing, regardless of their reliability, and as a result, become the primary method of valuing cards.

Cards should be valued primarily on things like desirability and scarcity. But it's easier for buyers and sellers to use comps, even if many of them are fake.

You sell, right? How do you determine the price of the cards you sell?

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by thenightman

You sell, right? How do you determine the price of the cards you sell?

The low side of comps are likely reliable -- shilling and fake sales are meant to push prices higher or keep them high. The low end is where I'd look to establish a price basis. I'd also look at the prices of similar cards to get a feel for relative value.

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by regularp

You named three guys. One of which, has two great seasons out of six, though he's working on his third at age 31.

Compare that to the amount of stars in the NBA and NFL; it's not even close. The stars in basketball and football have notable postseason performances as well.

How often do you see baseball players in commercials? They have next to no endorsements. There's no national star power right now.

Baseball is hard. It's one of the reasons I love it so much - it transcends physical ability and is so much more strategic/analytical by nature than the other sports. You can compile big stats in basketball just because the players around you suck, or because you're a ball hog and not a team player. Baseball stat compilation is to a very large degree a players own doing - period - unlike the other major sports. He owns those stats, he isn't just in a system that is beneficial to him.

To see baseball players who can semi consistently rattle off 4-5+ WAR seasons means they are very good at what they do. If I can buy those guys cards cheap because other people would rather buy empty stat players in other sports, COOL!!!

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[Chiwsox2005]

Set up at a local show for the first time last weekend. Foot traffic was very slow, but I fully expected it to be (beautiful weather, vacations, grad parties, larger shows within driving distance, etc.)

Overall though I still did OK with my sales. I recognized the crowds were slow so when serious buyers came to my table I made sure to get a deal done, even if it meant taking a bit less for a certain card than I had planned on going in to the day.

NFL was definitely #1, followed by top NBA superstars and MLB was a distant 3rd. MLB buyers seemed to be more focused on cheaper/value box stuff.

[JoshMN]

Originally Posted by redauto5

Baseball is hard. It's one of the reasons I love it so much - it transcends physical ability and is so much more strategic/analytical by nature than the other sports. You can compile big stats in basketball just because the players around you suck, or because you're a ball hog and not a team player. Baseball stat compilation is to a very large degree a players own doing - period - unlike the other major sports. He owns those stats, he isn't just in a system that is beneficial to him.

Solid analysis. Reminds me a little bit of what De Niro said about baseball when he was playing Capone in the Untouchables. You know, right before he smashed that guy's head with the baseball bat.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Solid analysis. Reminds me a little bit of what De Niro said about baseball when he was playing Capone in the Untouchables. You know, right before he smashed that guy's head with the baseball bat.

I prefer De Niro's quote in the mid-90s baseball film The Fan when, after kidnapping the son of Wesley Snipes' character and demanding he hit a home run during that night's game, he asks the poignant question, "Now do you care?"

Ah yes -- the film truly captures the stresses and demands that highly-paid big league stars endure.