**The Perennial MIKE TROUT Thread**

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

I think his long contract could end up being a Chris Davis-like albatross if Trout only produces 23 HR a year. He still has 7 years left and is already performing in 2023 at the level you’d kind of expect in his final year or two.

I’m an Orioles fan and the post-big contract Chris Davis years were painful to watch. I don’t wish that on Angels fans.

Now Mike Trout is being compared to Chris Davis. LOL

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Now Mike Trout is being compared to Chris Davis. LOL

Again, I hope it doesn’t happen to Angels fans, but in the case of Davis it was painful to watch a player limp through a big dollar contract that was awarded to them for past performance. And you can’t fault the player from not walking away from the big dollars. It just stinks all around.

Things are at risk of getting ugly though if Trout keeps struggling to finish seasons through 2031. Especially if the Angels fail to resign Ohtani (which is likely) who then goes onto win a WS with the Yanks/Mets/Dodgers or whoever.

[Zoop]

He will be very lucky to hit 550 homers at this point. Staying healthy is hard in baseball.

[jhssketchcards]

Here’s some interesting salty comparisons with games played before and after big contracts signed.

Bryce Harper
Signed $13.625 mil. deal in 2017 with Wash.
Signs a 1-yr extension of $21.625 May 2017.
Signs 13 year $330 mil. deal in 2019 with Phil.
From 2012-2018: 927 games (6 yrs)
Since 2019 deal: 508 games (4-1/2 yrs)

Giancarlo Stanton
Signed $300 million contact in 2014 with Mia.
Traded to NYY Dec. 2017.
From 2009-2014: 624 games (6 years)
Since 2014 deal: 838 games. (8-1/2 years)

Justin Upton
Signed 6 yr $51.5 mil. deal in 2010 with Ariz.
Traded to ATL in 2013
Traded to SD in 2014
Signed 6 yr $132.75 mil. In 2016 with Det.
Traded to LAA in 2017
Signs 5-yr $106 mil. deal in 2017 with LAA
From 2007-2015: 1.184 games (8 yrs)
Since 2016 deal: 813 games (7 yrs)

Jason Heyward
Signed 1 yr $3.65 mil. deal in 2013 with ATL
Signed 2-yr $13.3 mil. deal in 2014 with ATL
Traded to StL in late 2014
Signs 8-yr 184 mil. deal in 2015 with Chi. Cubs
From 2010-2015: 835 games (6 yrs)
2016-2023: 812 games (8 yrs)

Joe Mauer
Signed 4-yr $33 mil. deal in 2007 with Minn.
Signed 8-yr $184 mil. deal in 2010 with Minn.
From 2004-2009: 699 games (6 yrs)
Since 2010 deal: 1.159 games (9 yrs)

Albert Pujols
Exercised $16 mil. option with StL. in 2010
Signed 10-yr $240 mil. deal with LAA
From 2001-2011: 1.705 games (11 yrs)
Since 2012 deal: 1.484 games (12 yrs)

Mike Trout
Signed 1 yr $1 mil. deal in 2014 with LAA
Signs 6-yr $144 mil. Ext. 2014 with LAA
Signs 12-yr $426.5 mil. ext. with LAA
From 2011-2018: 1.065 games (8 yrs)
Since 2019 deal: 423 games (4-1/2 yrs)

COVID 2020 year included, and age play a role no doubt, but historically there have been players in history who played at All-Star and and MVP levels well into their 30s.
Seems big money can be somewhat attributed to certain players early declines.


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[Cards and 401K]

2015:
Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton suffered a hamate bone fracture. Has hit over 204 Hrs since then with 59 in 2017.

Not to worry Trout will be fine, lower back issues are the career(power) killers.

You would think they could manufacture a bat knob that would minimize pressure that that part of the wrist.

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by Chris P

That doesn't answer my question at all..baseball seems to be the toughest sport for one guy to "lead" a team. Last I checked Trout doesn't pitch. He's also 1 of 9 batters. He could be all world but if the pitching sucks or the people around him aren't hitting..what more can he do.

he could have shown some initiative and gone to a team that cares about winning. clearly LAA does not. we know it and so does trout. he chose the easy/comfortable route. he didnt want to uproot and move to a different city where winning is a priority.

could it be that some of those cities have a hostile press corp and trout didnt want to face that? did he not want the added pressure of going to a new team with a giant contract? He could have gone to LA, NY, ATL, HOU any number of teams in the last 3 or 4 seasons who actually care about winning.

he chose not to and it is telling. I dont think mr. trout cares much for pressure...

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

lol

have to love the hate

damned if you do, damned if you dont

I mean, my take on Trout is pretty cut and dry at this point. He is what he is.

First part of career he was an exciting superstar, a must-watch player who carried a high batting average, growing power, stole a lot of bases and made amazing plays in center field.

In his mid/late 20s he sold out for power, and his batting average dropped, stolen bases dropped, home run totals went up. He bulked up noticeably.

In his late 20s his body started breaking down and was dealing with nagging injuries when he WAS healthy. He hasn't played 120+ games in his past 4 seasons, so he can't accumulate counting stats like hits/HRs/SBs even though his rate stats, when healthy, are still elite.

He is hurt again, with an injury history that is cumulative. Shredded calf muscles, degenerative back issues, and now power-sapping broken hamate bone. Giancarlo Stanton should be knocking on the door of 500 HRs by now but he's still sitting close to Trout's HR totals. Because both of them are breaking down physically, and while still capable of producing at a high level, aren't on the field enough to produce anything that will lead to an impressive end-of-career resume.

I can't just view baseball players through rate stats and WAR. If you want to be measured among the greats you have to measure up with counting stats.

And Trout's ability to get there is seriously in question now. 3 of his 4 lowest batting average seasons were in the last 4 years. He doesn't steal bases anymore. He isn't a great centerfielder anymore.

This will be the lasting image of Mike Trout - a Pujolsian decline x 10 as he tries to stay on the field long enough to hit some statistical milestones.

He could have retired after his back diagnosis and would have had a much more impressive resume and mystique as people look back on his playing career. Then he came back and is out for the season - again.

All the shine is off Giancarlo now. People threw in the towel because he's always injured and he's showing a decline in production. Trout is there now.

That's not to say his cards won't be worth big bucks in the future, there's a whole generation of collectors who worship the guy (this thread has several examples) and despite Pujols chasing milestones and being pretty awful the last few seasons of his career, his cards still sell very well.

But for a guy who was on a trajectory to be one of the all-time greats, a top-10 player in MLB history, he is no longer on that trajectory. If I can be honest and give Trout his props as THE MLB superstar of the 2010s, why can't his fanboys be honest and admit that he's physically breaking down and is unlikely to realize the promise that he showed early in his career?

It also caused me to re-evaluate the weight I give advanced stats like WAR. I think for roster building and front office decisions it's a useful statistic, but the average fan has no idea that centerfielders used to receive a -4 defensive penalty in calculating WAR, and now they receive a +2 bonus just for playing centerfield. Playing games and getting hits and HRs and producing real things matters.

Rate stats are nice, but they don't tell the whole story.

[wharfrat7624]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Now Mike Trout is being compared to Chris Davis. LOL

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[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

They dominated their peer group. What their peer group consisted of doesn’t matter. They were the cream of the crop which is good enough for me.

The game evolves and each generation or era gets a little bit better each time. What does matter is who is dominating the era at the time. That’s how GOATs are formed


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So you view Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds as the best 2 hitters to ever live?

[Cardsandcoffee]

Reading all of these comments are hilarious. It’s as if people have a landline straight into Trouts mindset and psyche, from their home.

I came onto BO to learn and see cool things about cards and Trout happens to be a favorite of mine and many others. Love seeing people’s cards, and learning obscure facts about them. What’s tired is this back and forth between people who clearly will never move from their positions.

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by Cards and 401K

2015:
Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton suffered a hamate bone fracture. Has hit over 204 Hrs since then with 59 in 2017.

Not to worry Trout will be fine, lower back issues are the career(power) killers.

You would think they could manufacture a bat knob that would minimize pressure that that part of the wrist.

the big difference is age. stanton was 25 at the time of his injury. Trout will be 32 when he is recovered. 7 years is a long time in baseball years.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

So you view Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds as the best 2 hitters to ever live?

Teddy is in there

[spuds1961]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

the big difference is age. stanton was 25 at the time of his injury. Trout will be 32 when he is recovered. 7 years is a long time in baseball years.

Too bad Trout couldn’t be measured in dog years.

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

Reading all of these comments are hilarious. It’s as if people have a landline straight into Trouts mindset and psyche, from their home.

I came onto BO to learn and see cool things about cards and Trout happens to be a favorite of mine and many others. Love seeing people’s cards, and learning obscure facts about them. What’s tired is this back and forth between people who clearly will never move from their positions.

My apologies if my comments distracted from tie enjoyment, not my intent.

So basically it’s broken down into these camps:

One group believes Trout is an all time great (top 50) based on stats from 2011-2019 AND his iconic hobby status the past decade.

One group feels Trout is a sure fire HOF beanball player, but not all time great inner circle, AND recognizes his hobby elite status.

One group sees Trout as a great player, HOF lock at some point with a nice 10 yr span. His hobby status is recognized, but because of no playoff experience, no single season records to build a legacy, he’s a just a sexier Dale Murphy type player.

One group sees Trout as a great player who is propped up only by cardboard values and a really great 10 yr run, but like the above group no playoff wins or success keep him from any real historical status as one of the games greats.


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[Cards and 401K]

Getting to the bigs before age 22 is so important for gifted players to have a chance for a HOF type career due to injuries and aging.


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[Bcr]

Trout has a better WAR7 than Mantle. Who would rather have for 7 of their best years?

[theshowandme]

300+ posts since he got hurt.

Takes Mookie Betts like 3 full seasons to get that amount of traffic regarding his cards/likeness

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

I mean, my take on Trout is pretty cut and dry at this point. He is what he is.

First part of career he was an exciting superstar, a must-watch player who carried a high batting average, growing power, stole a lot of bases and made amazing plays in center field.

In his mid/late 20s he sold out for power, and his batting average dropped, stolen bases dropped, home run totals went up. He bulked up noticeably.

In his late 20s his body started breaking down and was dealing with nagging injuries when he WAS healthy. He hasn't played 120+ games in his past 4 seasons, so he can't accumulate counting stats like hits/HRs/SBs even though his rate stats, when healthy, are still elite.

He is hurt again, with an injury history that is cumulative. Shredded calf muscles, degenerative back issues, and now power-sapping broken hamate bone. Giancarlo Stanton should be knocking on the door of 500 HRs by now but he's still sitting close to Trout's HR totals. Because both of them are breaking down physically, and while still capable of producing at a high level, aren't on the field enough to produce anything that will lead to an impressive end-of-career resume.

I can't just view baseball players through rate stats and WAR. If you want to be measured among the greats you have to measure up with counting stats.

And Trout's ability to get there is seriously in question now. 3 of his 4 lowest batting average seasons were in the last 4 years. He doesn't steal bases anymore. He isn't a great centerfielder anymore.

This will be the lasting image of Mike Trout - a Pujolsian decline x 10 as he tries to stay on the field long enough to hit some statistical milestones.

He could have retired after his back diagnosis and would have had a much more impressive resume and mystique as people look back on his playing career. Then he came back and is out for the season - again.

All the shine is off Giancarlo now. People threw in the towel because he's always injured and he's showing a decline in production. Trout is there now.

That's not to say his cards won't be worth big bucks in the future, there's a whole generation of collectors who worship the guy (this thread has several examples) and despite Pujols chasing milestones and being pretty awful the last few seasons of his career, his cards still sell very well.

But for a guy who was on a trajectory to be one of the all-time greats, a top-10 player in MLB history, he is no longer on that trajectory. If I can be honest and give Trout his props as THE MLB superstar of the 2010s, why can't his fanboys be honest and admit that he's physically breaking down and is unlikely to realize the promise that he showed early in his career?

It also caused me to re-evaluate the weight I give advanced stats like WAR. I think for roster building and front office decisions it's a useful statistic, but the average fan has no idea that centerfielders used to receive a -4 defensive penalty in calculating WAR, and now they receive a +2 bonus just for playing centerfield. Playing games and getting hits and HRs and producing real things matters.

Rate stats are nice, but they don't tell the whole story.

Mike Trout hit 40 HRs last year. The reports of his demise are premature.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

300+ posts since he got hurt.

Takes Mookie Betts like 3 full seasons to get that amount of traffic regarding his cards/likeness

Mookie didn't the pop the way Trout did (wasn't the #1 minor league prospect for example), i think it's really unfair to compare the two, because honestly, Mookie is a hell of a baseball player.

and he does what Trout can't do lately...stay healthy.

he'll end up finishing his career and getting the Frank Robinson treatment...a forgotten great, while everybody eats up Trout and what could have been.

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Mike Trout hit 40 HRs last year. The reports of his demise are premature.

In the midst of hitting 40 HRs last year, was diagnosed with a permanent chronic back condition and just a few days ago broke his hamate bone.

Your post would make a lot more sense if he didn't literally just get hurt and sit out significant time - again.

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by Bcr

Trout has a better WAR7 than Mantle. Who would rather have for 7 of their best years?

Mickey Mantle more HR in the postseason than Trout, Ohtani, and every Angel on their current roster. Cherry picking stats is foolish. Trouts WAR is incredible no doubt, but c’mon.


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[ThoseBackPages]

Mantle is dead

[wharfrat7624]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

In the midst of hitting 40 HRs last year, was diagnosed with a permanent chronic back condition and just a few days ago broke his hamate bone.

Your post would make a lot more sense if he didn't literally just get hurt and sit out significant time - again.

He hit 16 HR’s after coming back from a so called career ending injury.

.308/.686/1.056


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[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by oplum29

Mookie didn't the pop the way Trout did (wasn't the #1 minor league prospect for example), i think it's really unfair to compare the two, because honestly, Mookie is a hell of a baseball player.

and he does what Trout can't do lately...stay healthy.

he'll end up finishing his career and getting the Frank Robinson treatment...a forgotten great, while everybody eats up Trout and what could have been.

We have people comparing Mike Trout to Dale Murphy and Chris Davis in here. Maybe unfair to Mookie, sure, but a lot of commentary in here is unfair to Mike Trout

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

Mantle is dead

That's why he's a legend