calculusdork's 2023 Cy Young Predictor

[calculusdork]

It's ok, I'm not dead.

Thread for 2018: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1236574
Thread for 2019/2020: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1295302
Thread for 2021: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?p=17456119
Thread for 2022: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1525408

Official Scoring Scale:
70-79: Good season
80-89: Very good season
90-99: Excellent season
100-109: Likely CY winner
110+: Out of this world!


For this initial iteration, I have not made any changes to the classic formula.

Let's get to it.


2023 NL CY Prediction (as of 9/1/23)
1. Spencer Strider 94.41
2. Zac Gallen 85.11
3. Justin Steele 84.06
4. Blake Snell 82.44

Honorable Mentions: Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Kodai Senga, Logan Webb, Charlie Morton


2023 AL CY Prediction (as of 9/1/23)
1. Gerrit Cole 88.20
2. Luis Castillo 84.08
3. Kevin Gausman 81.51

Honorable Mentions: Framber Valdez, Zach Eflin, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Sonny Gray (!!)

[calculusdork]

Surprises: The Predictor hates Blake Snell and (especially!) Sonny Gray, lol.

Not Surprises: Strider and Cole are leading.


In short ... it's still anyone's award for the taking among the top 3-4 in both AL and NL. In my opinion, there is no clear leader in either league. I do think Strider's shot at 20 wins and 300 K puts him significantly ahead, but a couple bad starts can ruin that ... it wasn't long ago that his ERA was over 4.

[Boo]

Great to see it back!

[Rabs]

Sweet! I'm surprised to see Strider that far ahead honestly. Hope he wins.

[cnewby]

No Otani? List doesn't count!

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Welcome back! Glad to see this thread return.

[Rbradleigh]

Calculusdork shows why Ms can be scary in the playoffs


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[hermanotarjeta]

Way to go Spencer!

From a bowman nobody to an MLB somebody.

Who would have thunk that with all of the Braves pitchers that you have been prospecting over the last twenty years that Strider would be the one closest to winning the Cy young award.

Unfathomable!

[boxbuster7]

Snell wins it and your predictor is wrong

[PLB9eight]

Waiting for the Mookie crowd to come argue that he deserves the award.

[Rabs]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Way to go Spencer!

From a bowman nobody to an MLB somebody.

Who would have thunk that with all of the Braves pitchers that you have been prospecting over the last twenty years that Strider would be the one closest to winning the Cy young award.

Unfathomable!

Fried finished 2nd last year.

[Skipscards]

Watch, this year Alexis Díaz wins the Cy Young and breaks the Predictor sending Grant into a catatonic state for 2 months. All because the BBWAA wanted to celebrate Gagne's 20th Anniversary.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Rabs

Fried finished 2nd last year.

But he never had a chance versus Sandy. Max cards had a small bump, but to actually win it would be a big plus for Braves fans.

I don’t want to jinx him, but Spence could actually pull it off as he may be the favorite this late in the season.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Snell wins it and your predictor is wrong

Very possible. But he also leads the league in things you don't wanna lead the league in.

[TMQ]

I think Castillo/Kirby/Gilbert should split the Cy Young award this year

[calculusdork]

A little more info regarding Snell and why the Predictor has the grumpies toward him:

Snell has a BB/9 over 5, and is on pace for 104 BB. Consider the following:

- There are no CY winners ever with a BB/9 over 5;
- There are no CY winners in the last 40 years with over 100 BB;
- There are no pitchers at all in the last 10 years with over 100 BB;
- Snell's "FIP - ERA" is 1.13, highest in the league by ... a lot.

So, does any of that matter? Meh, not to me ... but IMO it will probably matter to voters.

If W-L records matter to voters this year, I'd bet Justin Steele gets more votes than Snell.

[LVDan]

Thanks for firing it back up Grant.

Crazy that w the possible exception of Strider (I think he’s a top 3 lock) any of the other NL candidates could finish anywhere 1-5 and I really wouldn’t have a major beef with it. Between the starts left and how the different voters individually weigh things like team performance, run avoidance, walks, W/L record etc could make the results vary wildly.

[jdandns]

Ah's wundrin' wha' hoppen this thread for now year.
But now it back, that good!!!

[LVDan]

I’m assuming Fred Peralta makes honorable mention next week.
Last 7 or so starts have been outstanding
I’ve said it for a couple years but that trio makes them seemingly really dangerous if they could ever scratch out a few runs

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

A little more info regarding Snell and why the Predictor has the grumpies toward him:

Snell has a BB/9 over 5, and is on pace for 104 BB. Consider the following:

- There are no CY winners ever with a BB/9 over 5;
- There are no CY winners in the last 40 years with over 100 BB;
- There are no pitchers at all in the last 10 years with over 100 BB;
- Snell's "FIP - ERA" is 1.13, highest in the league by ... a lot.

So, does any of that matter? Meh, not to me ... but IMO it will probably matter to voters.

If W-L records matter to voters this year, I'd bet Justin Steele gets more votes than Snell.

Last to do it were Edinson Volquez (182.2 IP) and Rickey Romero (181 IP), each with 105 in 2012.

[Ferg1945]

What does Justin Steele have to do in his final 5 starts to have a shot?

He's not a strikeout pitcher... he keeps batters off balance by hitting edges and corners and tries to get weak contact so his defenders can play defense behind him.

[Soxrule111]

Originally Posted by Ferg1945

What does Justin Steele have to do in his final 5 starts to have a shot?

He's not a strikeout pitcher... he keeps batters off balance by hitting edges and corners and tries to get weak contact so his defenders can play defense behind him.

Go 5-0 and lower his ERA to lead the league and Whip.

Sounds excessive, but He could beat Strider in Wins then, beat Strider in era
Get Closer in Whip, but still be 100 Ks behind. Not sure if 1 Win and a non Category lead in ERA would be enough over strider.

Strider with 300ks or 100 more Ks than Steele might be to much to overcome.

[stretcharmstron]

Originally Posted by PLB9eight

Waiting for the Mookie crowd to come argue that he deserves the award.

Don't be an idiot.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

A little more info regarding Snell and why the Predictor has the grumpies toward him:

Snell has a BB/9 over 5, and is on pace for 104 BB. Consider the following:

- There are no CY winners ever with a BB/9 over 5;
- There are no CY winners in the last 40 years with over 100 BB;
- There are no pitchers at all in the last 10 years with over 100 BB;
- Snell's "FIP - ERA" is 1.13, highest in the league by ... a lot.

So, does any of that matter? Meh, not to me ... but IMO it will probably matter to voters.

If W-L records matter to voters this year, I'd bet Justin Steele gets more votes than Snell.

What makes Snell’s season even more fascinating is that, while he’s leading the league in walks, he’s also leading in BAA. He’s allowing just 2 hits every 3 innings.


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[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by Soxrule111

Go 5-0 and lower his ERA to lead the league and Whip.

Sounds excessive, but He could beat Strider in Wins then, beat Strider in era
Get Closer in Whip, but still be 100 Ks behind. Not sure if 1 Win and a non Category lead in ERA would be enough over strider.

Strider with 300ks or 100 more Ks than Steele might be to much to overcome.

That's what I was figuring.... 5-0 and be lights out every start.

Gallen might have fallen to 4th after a 2nd straight loss. 11 ERs allowed in 10.2 IP