calculusdork's 2023 Cy Young Predictor

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Zauron

I feel Strider is way overhyped to win it. Not only his everything except K's behind everybody, but his WAR...there's over 10 pitchers with a higher WAR in the NL alone

Not only that, but the Braves have basically 1st in the NL wrapped up, they might rest him to end the year so I doubt he pitches long into games from here on out.

I put his chances of winning 0.1%

Agree with this 100%.

[eye4talent]

Why is Strider even in the conversation? He’s 13th in ERA. Considering that a pitcher’s job is to prevent runs, you kinda have to be one of the best at doing that.


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[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by stretcharmstron

Strider can't be THAT far behind because of that last game surely?

Yes. He’s been awful at times. That last start was really bad. He has to develop and trust the 3rd pitch in order to take a next step. When his fastball is just barely off, he gets rocked.


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[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Why is Strider even in the conversation? He’s 13th in ERA. Considering that a pitcher’s job is to prevent runs, you kinda have to be one of the best at doing that.


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Scherzer was 8th in ERA in 2016 and got 25 first-place votes. You could argue he wasn't "one of the best" at preventing runs, but he won 20 games and led the majors in strikeouts.

So, even though there has been a shift away from wins in the last decade, there is a fairly recent precedent for a guy who really isn't close to the league lead in ERA winning the CY by force.

I think Strider is basically cooked until the playoffs (which is primarily why I agreed with Zauron above). His focus is purely going to be on fixing a couple mechanical issues (and maybe testing out the change-up a little more) heading into October. But ... what would we have done with ourselves if Strider had finished 20-5, 3.60 ERA, and 290 K?

(Oh, and by the way ... Strider leads the NL in FIP. Don't think that doesn't matter to some voters.)

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Scherzer was 8th in ERA in 2016 and got 25 first-place votes. You could argue he wasn't "one of the best" at preventing runs, but he won 20 games and led the majors in strikeouts.

So, even though there has been a shift away from wins in the last decade, there is a fairly recent precedent for a guy who really isn't close to the league lead in ERA winning the CY by force.

I think Strider is basically cooked until the playoffs (which is primarily why I agreed with Zauron above). His focus is purely going to be on fixing a couple mechanical issues (and maybe testing out the change-up a little more) heading into October. But ... what would we have done with ourselves if Strider had finished 20-5, 3.60 ERA, and 290 K?

(Oh, and by the way ... Strider leads the NL in FIP. Don't think that doesn't matter to some voters.)

The BABIP of pitching… How significant is that when two of his rotation mates, Elder and Morton, have pitched essentially the same number of innings and both are nearly a half-run better in ERA?


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[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

The BABIP of pitching… How significant is that when two of his rotation mates, Elder and Morton, have pitched essentially the same number of innings and both are nearly a half-run better in ERA?


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Strider has the lowest "FIP minus ERA" in the NL

Snell has the highest, Elder second-highest

Isn't baseball fun, lol

[JoshMN]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Scherzer was 8th in ERA in 2016 and got 25 first-place votes. You could argue he wasn't "one of the best" at preventing runs, but he won 20 games and led the majors in strikeouts.

So, even though there has been a shift away from wins in the last decade, there is a fairly recent precedent for a guy who really isn't close to the league lead in ERA winning the CY by force.

I think Strider is basically cooked until the playoffs (which is primarily why I agreed with Zauron above). His focus is purely going to be on fixing a couple mechanical issues (and maybe testing out the change-up a little more) heading into October. But ... what would we have done with ourselves if Strider had finished 20-5, 3.60 ERA, and 290 K?

(Oh, and by the way ... Strider leads the NL in FIP. Don't think that doesn't matter to some voters.)

Scherzer also led the league in innings pitched and WAR that year. Strider is nowhere close to the league leaders in those categories. Plus, Scherzer ended with a sub-3.00 ERA. Regardless of where that ended up in the league standings, it is respectable by "historical standards". Strider's current ERA is 0.3 higher than the highest ERA to ever win a Cy Young, which I think will matter way more than FIP to most voters (old school or new school)

It's such a weird year for Strider- he's been so good and also really bad too.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Scherzer also led the league in innings pitched and WAR that year. Strider is nowhere close to the league leaders in those categories. Plus, Scherzer ended with a sub-3.00 ERA. Regardless of where that ended up in the league standings, it is respectable by "historical standards". Strider's current ERA is 0.3 higher than the highest ERA to ever win a Cy Young, which I think will matter way more than FIP to most voters (old school or new school)

It's such a weird year for Strider- he's been so good and also really bad too.

That’s a really good point about his ERA being that much higher than any winner.

Also, while I haven’t watched Strider religiously, it’s my impression that he’s been quite inconsistent: 6 shutout innings one day, 5 ER the next.


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[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

That’s a really good point about his ERA being that much higher than any winner.

Also, while I haven’t watched Strider religiously, it’s my impression that he’s been quite inconsistent: 6 shutout innings one day, 5 ER the next.

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Ive watched almost every start. VERY inconsistent. When he's on, nobody can touch him. But when he's not...everyone can.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by stretcharmstron

Strider can't be THAT far behind because of that last game surely?

It's all about leverage. Gallen went from +7500 to +1000 in one really great start. Obviously the same is possible in reverse for a really bad start. Strider had that start.

[LVDan]

Big start for Snell tonight at LA. Holding them to a couple(with a win) on the heels of doing the same at HOU would go a long way towards legitimizing his candidacy. I still favor Steele but holding those two lineups down with wins on the road is notable IMO.
Plus I bought a lot of Pepiot cards last winter so I’m xtra interested.

[Ferg1945]

Strider 7 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 9 K - 110 pitches - 3.73 ERA (maybe 17th WIN and 259 Ks)

Was this enough to get back in? - Not challenge the top 2 yet...but enough to get a foot in the room.

Looking at the schedule... he possibly has 3 more starts. Sept 20th PHI, Sept 26th CHI and possibly last game of the season Oct. 1st WSH - Braves clinched a Bye so Strider would have a week off before Game 1 of NLDS.

[Ferg1945]

Gallen 5 IP 8 H 6 ER 2 BB 4 K - 3.50 ERA

This should knock him completely out.

His last 4 starts

5.1 IP 6 ER
5.1 IP 5 ER
9.0 IP 0 ER - CGSO
5.0 IP 6 ER

[Zauron]

Gallen is toast now, it's between snell and steele almost now

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Ferg1945

Gallen 5 IP 8 H 6 ER 2 BB 4 K - 3.50 ERA

This should knock him completely out.

His last 4 starts

5.1 IP 6 ER
5.1 IP 5 ER
9.0 IP 0 ER - CGSO
5.0 IP 6 ER

Killing the D'backs! Oh well. I guess its better to we the bed against the Mets than the Giants or Cubs.

[LVDan]

Snell thus far is showing grit, focus and determination. I’ve been buying and selling his cards since I got back into this in 17. Proud papa vibes over here.

[Ferg1945]

Snell 6 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 8 K - 90 pitches - 2.43 ERA

Great performance....but finished after 6. His knock is he doesn't go beyond 6 innings at all. I think 90 pitches this late in the season is pretty low. Padres aren't going to the playoffs... why hold back?

[Rabs]

Snell has to be in the lead now right?

Steele goes tomorrow.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by Rabs

Snell has to be in the lead now right?

Steele goes tomorrow.

The mlb.com poll would have him with a decent lead as of now. If I had a vote I think he’s dead even with Steele.
Snell- big lead in Ks and BAA, also maybe war
Steele- better record and decent lead in whip, better era+
I give Steele a small bump because of FIP to make them virtually even.
I don’t have a vote

[calculusdork]

2023 NL CY Prediction (as of 9/14/23)
1. Blake Snell 87.75 (+2)
2. Justin Steele 87.48
3. Spencer Strider 86.85 (-2)
4. Zac Gallen 84.18

Honorable Mentions: Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta


2023 AL CY Prediction (as of 9/14/23)
1. Gerrit Cole 89.81
2. Luis Castillo 83.52
3. Pablo Lopez 80.67 (+1)
4. Kevin Gausman 80.24 (+1)
5. Framber Valdez 80.07 (-2)

Honorable Mentions: Logan Gilbert, Zach Eflin

[LondonGames]

14-9 cant sniff 16-3 when the ERAs are close. there would need to be both a huge strikeout and whip discrepancy for that to be a thing.

odds are way off. Steele has an enormous lead ATM.

no way voters would go with Snell on a failing Padres team over Steele and what his pitching has meant for the Cubs.

Snell both needs Steele to get lit up and to win his remaining starts with Steele losing his.

there are just way too many factors going against any Snell over Steele narrative.

[SupermanBrandon]

Wish Strider wouldnt have crapped the bed in last weeks start or this would be REALLY interesting. I still love that we're at least going to have one player award (NL CY Young) going down to the wire.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Wish Strider wouldnt have crapped the bed in last weeks start or this would be REALLY interesting. I still love that we're at least going to have one player award (NL CY Young) going down to the wire.

Same on Strider.
If Steele were to have a bad start today and stache posts a scoreless W with 10+ Ks next his foot is still somewhat blocking the door in my mind.
Snells hit and run avoidance gives him a big leg up obviously but ya never know how voters will treat his MLB leading walk total and big strand rate (implying some luck) not to mention Striders opposite luck, much lower whip and edge in xStats
In other words she’s warming up the lemon tea but the fat lady hasn’t sung yet IMO

[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

2023 NL CY Prediction (as of 9/14/23)
1. Blake Snell 87.75 (+2)
2. Justin Steele 87.48
3. Spencer Strider 86.85 (-2)
4. Zac Gallen 84.18

Honorable Mentions: Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta


2023 AL CY Prediction (as of 9/14/23)
1. Gerrit Cole 89.81
2. Luis Castillo 83.52
3. Pablo Lopez 80.67 (+1)
4. Kevin Gausman 80.24 (+1)
5. Framber Valdez 80.07 (-2)

Honorable Mentions: Logan Gilbert, Zach Eflin

Damn.... about as close as you can get in the NL.

Fan Duel newest odds

AL is over.

Cole -2200
Castillo +1200

Not sure Cole could do anything to lose at this point.

NL is down to a 2 man race

Snell -360
Steele +260

Steele pitches tomorrow.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by LondonGames

14-9 cant sniff 16-3 when the ERAs are close. there would need to be both a huge strikeout and whip discrepancy for that to be a thing.

odds are way off. Steele has an enormous lead ATM.

no way voters would go with Snell on a failing Padres team over Steele and what his pitching has meant for the Cubs.

Snell both needs Steele to get lit up and to win his remaining starts with Steele losing his.

there are just way too many factors going against any Snell over Steele narrative.

lol wins shouldn't matter in CY voting, nor should how a team is playing factor in voting.

Snell has a massive lead in strikeouts also.

I will say, Snell's WHIP and walk rate might be his downfall for winning though