Is there a 2022 Flawless Football release?

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by Grid

Americans dropped nearly $70BIL at US casinos last year. $110BIL on the lottery. And by most accounts, $500BIL unregulated sportsbooks, iGaming websites and so-called “skill games”.

Well, I bought lottery tickets last year. Maybe $20 over the year. I didn't expect to win.

If that lottery ticket was $9000, I'd think twice. Even at $400, no.

Granted, your odds are better on a break, but not so much that the buy-in makes a ton of sense for most.

[Bob Ross]

Average value in these boxes has to average out to less than $100, right?

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Average value in these boxes has to average out to less than $100, right?

Probably more average value, especially right out of the box, but your point still holds.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

Well, I bought lottery tickets last year. Maybe $20 over the year. I didn't expect to win.

If that lottery ticket was $9000, I'd think twice. Even at $400, no.

Granted, your odds are better on a break, but not so much that the buy-in makes a ton of sense for most.

Lottery tickets you're paying small amounts and buying for a chance to make countless millions. You can hit the lottery on Flawless football or NT football and how much do you win? Is there a single card in 2022 Flawless worth $100k? Certainly nothing even remotely close to a million or retirement money. On the basketball products over the past few years with 7 figure cards at least you knew that lottery hit was possible. 2022 football makes no sense. There is 1 6 figure card across all of 2022 football. The Purdy NT 1/1 which is worth what maybe $150k right now? Nothing that is even close to a million or more.

The people buying into Flawless breaks probably spend so much on breaks in a year they could hit the Purdy Flawless RPA 1/1 and still flush back more than 50% of what the card sells for towards loses in other breaks.

At $18k per hobby case how many cases will see a profit? 1 out of 200? That's before accounting for breakers upping that cost to more like $22k-$23k per case. There will be cases that pull Purdy RPAs and still lose money. Any case that doesn't have Purdy or an insane 1/1 is a loser.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Lottery tickets you're paying small amounts and buying for a chance to make countless millions. You can hit the lottery on Flawless football or NT football and how much do you win? Is there a single card in 2022 Flawless worth $100k? Certainly nothing even remotely close to a million or retirement money. On the basketball products over the past few years with 7 figure cards at least you knew that lottery hit was possible. 2022 football makes no sense. There is 1 6 figure card across all of 2022 football. The Purdy NT 1/1 which is worth what maybe $150k right now? Nothing that is even close to a million or more.

The people buying into Flawless breaks probably spend so much on breaks in a year they could hit the Purdy Flawless RPA 1/1 and still flush back more than 50% of what the card sells for towards loses in other breaks.

At $18k per hobby case how many cases will see a profit? 1 out of 200? That's before accounting for breakers upping that cost to more like $22k-$23k per case. There will be cases that pull Purdy RPAs and still lose money. Any case that doesn't have Purdy or an insane 1/1 is a loser.

Can’t disagree with any of this and yet the machine rolls on.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Lottery tickets you're paying small amounts and buying for a chance to make countless millions. You can hit the lottery on Flawless football or NT football and how much do you win? Is there a single card in 2022 Flawless worth $100k? Certainly nothing even remotely close to a million or retirement money. On the basketball products over the past few years with 7 figure cards at least you knew that lottery hit was possible. 2022 football makes no sense. There is 1 6 figure card across all of 2022 football. The Purdy NT 1/1 which is worth what maybe $150k right now? Nothing that is even close to a million or more.

The people buying into Flawless breaks probably spend so much on breaks in a year they could hit the Purdy Flawless RPA 1/1 and still flush back more than 50% of what the card sells for towards loses in other breaks.

At $18k per hobby case how many cases will see a profit? 1 out of 200? That's before accounting for breakers upping that cost to more like $22k-$23k per case. There will be cases that pull Purdy RPAs and still lose money. Any case that doesn't have Purdy or an insane 1/1 is a loser.

Its all relative. State lottery, you play a couple bucks for a shot in the dark chance to win millions. You can also get scratch off lottery tickets, that cost $50, $100 or even $500 each. With much, much better odds to win something.

Its the same as breaks. You can throw $5.00 into a team spot of Score Hobby, and hope for a card worth dozens of dollars. Or throw $500 into a break of Flawless, and have much, much better odds of hitting a card worth 10 times as much as your buy in.

Again, one in 300 MIL to turn your two bucks into a Mega Ball win. Or, one in say 300 to turn your $400 buyin break into a Flawless win.

You arent talking apples to apples here Mossy.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grid

Its all relative. State lottery, you play a couple bucks for a shot in the dark chance to win millions. You can also get scratch off lottery tickets, that cost $50, $100 or even $500 each. With much, much better odds to win something.

Its the same as breaks. You can throw $5.00 into a team spot of Score Hobby, and hope for a card worth dozens of dollars. Or throw $500 into a break of Flawless, and have much, much better odds of hitting a card worth 10 times as much as your buy in.

Again, one in 300 MIL to turn your two bucks into a Mega Ball win. Or, one in say 300 to turn your $400 buyin break into a Flawless win.

You arent talking apples to apples here Mossy.

How exactly are the odds better on Flawless football? There will be countless Flawless breaks where every single person that buys in loses even if you hit a card. Buying into breaks, specifically 2022 football, is the highest risk lowest reward gambling of any gambling that exists. There is no close second.

NT you can at least argue the big upside. You can hit non 1/1 cards in breaks that sell for a ton. On products like Noir, Impeccable bb and fb, Immaculate bb and fb, and Flawless football it makes no sense.

The disconnect between singles and wax for basketball and especially football is as bad as it's ever been. 2019 Flawless FOTL in March or April of 2020 sold out at $1637. That also included a blockchain card that I think were all 1/1s. Is anyone going to make an argument that the singles have increased by about 6 times to justify what 2022 Flawless FOTL sold out at and what presale on hobby is? I'd love to hear it.

[pazerbaijan]

Quoting from an ancient post:

Originally Posted by chondaville

2014 Flawless cost from distributors to dealers: $800/box, $1600/case.
MAAP price Blowout and others must have held the price at to the public for 15 days: $1,920/case. They didn't have to worry about the MAAP pricing as the 2014 version stayed way above cost and never came down.

2015 Flawless cost from distributors to dealers (MAAP): $990/box, $1980/case. MAAP price Blowout and others must hold the price at to the public for 15 days: $2,376/case.

Those prices seem almost quaint now.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

How exactly are the odds better on Flawless football? There will be countless Flawless breaks where every single person that buys in loses even if you hit a card. Buying into breaks, specifically 2022 football, is the highest risk lowest reward gambling of any gambling that exists. There is no close second.

NT you can at least argue the big upside. You can hit non 1/1 cards in breaks that sell for a ton. On products like Noir, Impeccable bb and fb, Immaculate bb and fb, and Flawless football it makes no sense.

The disconnect between singles and wax for basketball and especially football is as bad as it's ever been. 2019 Flawless FOTL in March or April of 2020 sold out at $1637. That also included a blockchain card that I think were all 1/1s. Is anyone going to make an argument that the singles have increased by about 6 times to justify what 2022 Flawless FOTL sold out at and what presale on hobby is? I'd love to hear it.

You literally quoted my post, where I said "Again, one in 300 MIL to turn your two bucks into a Mega Ball win. Or, one in say 300 to turn your $400 buyin break into a Flawless win." And now you are asking me how the odds are better?

I am just comparing gambling in the lottery to gambling in a Flawless break. I am not speaking of the merits to doing either.

If you'd been buying 2,000 ($4,000 worth) Powerball tickets a week since the time of Jesus there's a better than even chance that you wouldn't have won it yet.

Even with the lesser prizes in the lottery, you still have a better chance of "winning" in a break of Flawless per dollar spent.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grid

You literally quoted my post, where I said "Again, one in 300 MIL to turn your two bucks into a Mega Ball win. Or, one in say 300 to turn your $400 buyin break into a Flawless win." And now you are asking me how the odds are better?

I am just comparing gambling in the lottery to gambling in a Flawless break. I am not speaking of the merits to doing either.

If you'd been buying 2,000 ($4,000 worth) Powerball tickets a week since the time of Jesus there's a better than even chance that you wouldn't have won it yet.

Even with the lesser prizes in the lottery, you still have a better chance of "winning" in a break of Flawless per dollar spent.

Scratch offs are lottery. The worst odds scratch offs odds are better than the best odds break. There are countless scratch offs $5 and above that the top prize is $1 million or several million. Not like there isn't a big chase even if the odds were as bad as breaks. Your odds of winning money on a lottery scratch off are astronomically better than winning more than your buy in cost in a box break.

The average person buying into breaks is spending at least hundreds a week. The people playing Powerball or Mega Mil more often than not are playing so little many it's not even worth mentioning. It means nothing to their bottom line. I throw away $2-$4 most weeks on the Powerball. That loss means nothing to me even if I get back $0 every time. Although I did have a streak that I hit $4 or $7 a time at a ridiculously high rate. If I was throwing away several hundred or over a thousand a week on breaks the last 4 years my net worth would be a fraction of what it is now. Are there people that play hundreds a week on the Powerball or Mega Mil? Sure. It's probably under 0.001% of the people that play. If it was 99% then maybe you'd have an argument.

Anyone that is going to argue any form of regulated gambling is worse than buying into box breaks is a moron or singing for their supper.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Scratch offs are lottery. The worst odds scratch offs odds are better than the best odds break. There are countless scratch offs $5 and above that the top prize is $1 million or several million. Not like there isn't a big chase even if the odds were as bad as breaks. Your odds of winning money on a lottery scratch off are astronomically better than winning more than your buy in cost in a box break.

The average person buying into breaks is spending at least hundreds a week. The people playing Powerball or Mega Mil more often than not are playing so little many it's not even worth mentioning. It means nothing to their bottom line. I throw away $2-$4 most weeks on the Powerball. That loss means nothing to me even if I get back $0 every time. Although I did have a streak that I hit $4 or $7 a time at a ridiculously high rate. If I was throwing away several hundred or over a thousand a week on breaks the last 4 years my net worth would be a fraction of what it is now. Are there people that play hundreds a week on the Powerball or Mega Mil? Sure. It's probably under 0.001% of the people that play. If it was 99% then maybe you'd have an argument.

Anyone that is going to argue any form of regulated gambling is worse than buying into box breaks is a moron or singing for their supper.

Anyone that fights this hard, to declare scratch off tickets are a better gambling value than card breaks, is a moron. I was comparing odds as an aggregate. No one is paying $2.00 for a break, like they do for 1 lottery ticket. Sorry if math is not your strong suit.

Here, I will break things out for you using your scratchers.

Using a popular game, Scratch Blast, with slightly better odds than others. Each scratch off costs $20. To win the $50 prize, the odds are one in 30. Not bad. But it will cost you $600 in tickets ($20x30) to hit that $50 win (on average). For a bigger prize, like $150, it is one in 750. Or, $15,000 to win $150. The higher the prize value, the higher the odds to win.

Put $500 into a break, and I am sure you will hit a card(s) worth $50 or more, more often than not. And that is $100 less spent, than the odds of you hitting $50 on a ticket.

Both are bad odds and losing propositions. I am not telling anyone to do either. But one "should" be a smaller loss. And that is breaking. And that is without figuring in the tax ramafactions of winning a prize valued at $5K or more via lottery. You lose 25% right off the top. If you pull a card valued at $5K or more, you don't pay anything.

Some breaks will yield nothing. Some tickets will yield nothing. Some breaks will hit big. Some tickets will hit big. But if you were trying to hit the biggest on that scratch off, the odds are one in 1,437,560 for the top prize of $1.2MIL. That is $28.75MIL to win $1.2MIL. Yes, you will hit other prizes as well if you spent that money on that many tickets. But you would hit other cards as well, if you did the same on a break.

Anyone that doesn't understand that math, is either arguing because they like to think they are smart. Or too stupid to know that they are that dumb.

[Promethius88]

Originally Posted by Grid

Anyone that fights this hard, to declare scratch off tickets are a better gambling value than card breaks, is a moron. I was comparing odds as an aggregate. No one is paying $2.00 for a break, like they do for 1 lottery ticket. Sorry if math is not your strong suit.

Here, I will break things out for you using your scratchers.

Using a popular game, Scratch Blast, with slightly better odds than others. Each scratch off costs $20. To win the $50 prize, the odds are one in 30. Not bad. But it will cost you $600 in tickets ($20x30) to hit that $50 win (on average). For a bigger prize, like $150, it is one in 750. Or, $15,000 to win $150. The higher the prize value, the higher the odds to win.

Put $500 into a break, and I am sure you will hit a card(s) worth $50 or more, more often than not. And that is $100 less spent, than the odds of you hitting $50 on a ticket.

Both are bad odds and losing propositions. I am not telling anyone to do either. But one "should" be a smaller loss. And that is breaking. And that is without figuring in the tax ramafactions of winning a prize valued at $5K or more via lottery. You lose 25% right off the top. If you pull a card valued at $5K or more, you don't pay anything.

Some breaks will yield nothing. Some tickets will yield nothing. Some breaks will hit big. Some tickets will hit big. But if you were trying to hit the biggest on that scratch off, the odds are one in 1,437,560 for the top prize of $1.2MIL. That is $28.75MIL to win $1.2MIL. Yes, you will hit other prizes as well if you spent that money on that many tickets. But you would hit other cards as well, if you did the same on a break.

Anyone that doesn't understand that math, is either arguing because they like to think they are smart. Or too stupid to know that they are that dumb.

Just to put this into perspective for everyone, using the $150 prize as your example is a little skewed. It is one of the worst odds in the game.
Odds for $100 win is 1 in 33.92 and even going higher, the $200 prize is 1 in 285.44 and the $500 prize is 1 in 491.42.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

Just to put this into perspective for everyone, using the $150 prize as your example is a little skewed. It is one of the worst odds in the game.
Odds for $100 win is 1 in 33.92 and even going higher, the $200 prize is 1 in 285.44 and the $500 prize is 1 in 491.42.

Correct!

Odds for the $100 prize is 34 X $20 per ticket = $680, on average, to win that prize.

Odds for the $200 prize is 286 X $20 per ticket = $5,720, on average, to win that prize.

2022 Flawless at $10,000 per box, sold in 32 slots by team = $312.50 per slot. Round that up for breakers to cover their time and shipping. And say $350 for a random team break.

32 teams, and 10 cards per box. 1 in 3 odds to win a team.

Assuming each box will only yield 50% of value ($5,000), based on the cost of the box itself. An average card should be worth $500 ($5K ÷ 10).

That is 1 in 3 odds, for a $500 prize. But an entry cost of $350. $350 X 3 = $1050, for a $500 gain. That is an expected loss of $550, or roughly half your money.

Your scratch off is 1 in 4 odds, for a prize average of $43. But at an entry cost of $20. 4 x $20 = $80, for a $43 gain. That is an expected loss of $37, or roughly half your money.

But, you have 25% better odds of hitting in the break, VS a scratch off. Even if both (on average) are still losing propositions, with an average expected loss of 50% of the money invested.

[Promethius88]

Originally Posted by Grid

Correct!

Odds for the $100 prize is 34 X $20 per ticket = $680, on average, to win that prize.

Odds for the $200 prize is 286 X $20 per ticket = $5,720, on average, to win that prize.

2022 Flawless at $10,000 per box, sold in 32 slots by team = $312.50 per slot. Round that up for breakers to cover their time and shipping. And say $350 for a random team break.

32 teams, and 10 cards per box. 1 in 3 odds to win a team.

Assuming each box will only yield 50% of value ($5,000), based on the cost of the box itself. An average card should be worth $500 ($5K ÷ 10).

That is 1 in 3 odds, for a $500 prize. But an entry cost of $350. $350 X 3 = $1050, for a $500 gain. That is an expected loss of $550, or roughly half your money.

Your scratch off is 1 in 4 odds, for a prize average of $43. But at an entry cost of $20. 4 x $20 = $80, for a $43 gain. That is an expected loss of $37, or roughly half your money.

But, you have 25% better odds of hitting in the break, VS a scratch off. Even if both (on average) are still losing propositions, with an average expected loss of 50% of the money invested.

These numbers are also skewed. The average odds for the $20 ticket is 1 in 3.55. The average winning ticket is valued at more than the $43 that you have suggested. just considering the $30, $40, $50 $60, $100, $500 and the 3 $1.2mil prizes and dividing it by the number of total winning tickets (1,215,278) the average is over $55. Obviously it will fall well short of the even point if the 1 in 3.55 odds are correct.

[49erRCCollector]

We're getting a little lost in the weeds here, yeah?

We can all agree that unless you ARE the Breaker recouping by selling all the spots, this is akin to setting money on fire, odds-wise?

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

We're getting a little lost in the weeds here, yeah?

We can all agree that unless you ARE the Breaker recouping by selling all the spots, this is akin to setting money on fire, odds-wise?

Lol I love how someone will argue that box breaks for football that pay out 5-10% with a top prize of under $100k is a better bet than scratch offs that pay 75% back with a top prize of a million or several million. Pretty sure most or all scratch offs if you win you at least get your money back. Box breaks you could "win" many times in a row but lose money every time. Brilliant! Can't wait to hear the next argument about how box breaks are better bets than all casino games too.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Lol I love how someone will argue that box breaks for football that pay out 5-10% with a top prize of under $100k is a better bet than scratch offs that pay 75% back with a top prize of a million or several million. Pretty sure most or all scratch offs if you win you at least get your money back. Box breaks you could "win" many times in a row but lose money every time. Brilliant! Can't wait to hear the next argument about how box breaks are better bets than all casino games too.

LOL that you actually think box breaks only pay out 5-10%. No one would be busting anything, if it was a steady average loss of 90-95% of their money.

LOL that you think lotteries return 75%, and not the 50% average for the prize pool. Less advertising and administrative costs.

LOL that you didn't already know, the most popular table games in a casino are also around the same 50%. Like Black Jack, Roulette and Craps.

Play video poker, and that can be a crazy 99% return. Which means you can expect to lose $1.00, for every $100 of coin in, with perfect play on average. Even a bad slot machine, with a 20% hold, is still an 80% pay back.

And with all of them, its on average and you should expect variances. The only thing thats funny, is your ignorance.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grid

LOL that you actually think box breaks only pay out 5-10%. No one would be busting anything, if it was a steady average loss of 90-95% of their money.

LOL that you think lotteries return 75%, and not the 50% average for the prize pool. Less advertising and administrative costs.

LOL that you didn't already know, the most popular table games in a casino are also around the same 50%. Like Black Jack, Roulette and Craps.

Play video poker, and that can be a crazy 99% return. Which means you can expect to lose $1.00, for every $100 of coin in, with perfect play on average. Even a bad slot much, with a 00% hold, is still an 80% pay back.

And with all of them, its on average and you should expect variances. The only thing thats funny, is your ignorance.

The average box return right now on football hobby is under 10%. Breaks are going to be less because the overall cost is higher. Flawless football right here you could easily open 100 boxes and lose on them all. There will be countless boxes with under $1000 worth of cards. There are many other high end products with no monster hits, like Noir, Impeccable, and Immaculate FB, you could open countless cases and lose on every single one. Right now singles compared to wax are the most out of sync they have been in history. Again, at least a couple years ago singles were very high and there were products with $1 million+ hits. 2022 football right now there is 1 card worth over $100k. It's already been pulled. Nothing even remotely close to a million dollars.

If you think you're right and Im wrong just know you are in the vast minority. I don't think you're going to get many people to agree with you that most football box breaks aren't 90%+ losers. As to why people keep buying in. There are too many stupid people in this world. I had a breaker I've bought from and sold to tell me recently exact quote, " I'd say 1% of the ppl that join my breaks are ahead." 1%. He was serious.

I guess I could be wrong on the scratch off numbers but i thought most of the ones I used to get as gifts said 70-75% payment on them. Regardless, even if its half that that still way better than breaks and there is a monster hit. I could be wrong but pretty sure on scratchers when you win you at worst break even.

Please tell me more casino odds. I only worked in one for close to 11 years. But Im sure you know more on that as well. Why would people not just play casino games or better yet bet sports games if you like sports/sports cards? Way better odds and immediate payment. The reason is because there are people that are actually that stupid that would spend $1000 a week on breaks versus $1000 betting games or in the casino. The dumbest people I've ever met are people that gamble in this "hobby".

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

The average box return right now on football hobby is under 10%. Breaks are going to be less because the overall cost is higher. Flawless football right here you could easily open 100 boxes and lose on them all. There will be countless boxes with under $1000 worth of cards. There are many other high end products with no monster hits, like Noir, Impeccable, and Immaculate FB, you could open countless cases and lose on every single one. Right now singles compared to wax are the most out of sync they have been in history. Again, at least a couple years ago singles were very high and there were products with $1 million+ hits. 2022 football right now there is 1 card worth over $100k. It's already been pulled. Nothing even remotely close to a million dollars.

If you think you're right and Im wrong just know you are in the vast minority. I don't think you're going to get many people to agree with you that most football box breaks aren't 90%+ losers. As to why people keep buying in. There are too many stupid people in this world. I had a breaker I've bought from and sold to tell me recently exact quote, " I'd say 1% of the ppl that join my breaks are ahead." 1%. He was serious.

I guess I could be wrong on the scratch off numbers but i thought most of the ones I used to get as gifts said 70-75% payment on them. Regardless, even if its half that that still way better than breaks and there is a monster hit. I could be wrong but pretty sure on scratchers when you win you at worst break even.

Please tell me more casino odds. I only worked in one for close to 11 years. But Im sure you know more on that as well. Why would people not just play casino games or better yet bet sports games if you like sports/sports cards? Way better odds and immediate payment. The reason is because there are people that are actually that stupid that would spend $1000 a week on breaks versus $1000 betting games or in the casino. The dumbest people I've ever met are people that gamble in this "hobby".

To be clear, you said breaks "pay out 5-10%". That is an average loss of 90-95%. Now, if you said 90% of boxes will be a loss, I'd agree with that. Most boxes have always been a loss leader. Now more so than prepandemic.

Its a matter of what those loses are. Id say most will lose half their money on a break. Which mitigates their losses, as they are sharing the risk VS return with others. If someone were to open their own box, at todays prices. I'd say that is closer to a 75% loss. More so on higher end , and less so on lower end product.

But even with all of that, 50-75% loss. Its still no where near 90-95% loss. Again, on average. If boxes/breaks only had a 5% return, no one would be doing either.

Playing casino games and betting sports are still a loss leader as well. And people still do all of them, for the same reason. Everyone hopes to hit big. But those arent 90-95% losses either.

And yes, I might know more about gambling and odds than you working in a casino. Google Vegas Grid Report. That was my side hustle, gambling coast to coast and blogging on casinos, games and comps. Ive been invited to the Global Gaming Expo many times, as an industry consultant.

[dcbillsPC]

Originally Posted by Grid

And yes, I might know more about gambling and odds than you working in a casino. Google Vegas Grid Report. That was my side hustle, gambling coast to coast and blogging on casinos, games and comps. Ive been invited to the Global Gaming Expo many times, as an industry consultant.

[Bob Ross]

Sorry for bumping this thread at first. This is all Uncle Bob's fault.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

I get what you mean but in the end "people" (multiple) will buy this overpriced stuff. Breakers will parcel it out into more palatable monetary increments so that they can sell it and still make money.

I agree that very few individuals, if any, bought this with the intent of opening it for themselves. The problem is that many people who would never think of buying a $10,000 box will buy into a one box 30 team group break at $400/spot. Enough individuals suck at math that they think $400 is a better deal. Crazy thing is if it's a one box break that means AT LEAST 20 of the 30 spots are guaranteed to receive nothing. A guaranteed $8000 right out the window with nothing to show for it.

I was told in the baseball section that the companies set the price and that breakers have absolutely nothing do with what a product sells for. Apparently, individual collectors are buying these products and there is ZERO influence from the breakers on market price.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grid

To be clear, you said breaks "pay out 5-10%". That is an average loss of 90-95%. Now, if you said 90% of boxes will be a loss, I'd agree with that. Most boxes have always been a loss leader. Now more so than prepandemic.

Its a matter of what those loses are. Id say most will lose half their money on a break. Which mitigates their losses, as they are sharing the risk VS return with others. If someone were to open their own box, at todays prices. I'd say that is closer to a 75% loss. More so on higher end , and less so on lower end product.

But even with all of that, 50-75% loss. Its still no where near 90-95% loss. Again, on average. If boxes/breaks only had a 5% return, no one would be doing either.

Playing casino games and betting sports are still a loss leader as well. And people still do all of them, for the same reason. Everyone hopes to hit big. But those arent 90-95% losses either.

And yes, I might know more about gambling and odds than you working in a casino. Google Vegas Grid Report. That was my side hustle, gambling coast to coast and blogging on casinos, games and comps. Ive been invited to the Global Gaming Expo many times, as an industry consultant.

Most breaks on mid to high end do only yield 5-10% right now specifically on higher end football. Now on lower end products or stuff bought around MSRP maybe it's not that low. It's going to be hard to consistently only get back $13 on a $130ish a box of Select Draft Picks for example. It seems likely the further away from MSRP better chances of the bigger percentage losses. Flawless football hobby boxes the average box will yield less than $1000. You would think people would stop buying in but they keep buying. If you think it's only a 50% loss for most people buying into breaks I don't know what to tell you. If you think opening your own boxes at a lower overall cost is more of a loss than buying into breaks at a higher overall cost I don't know what to tell you. Buying a box of Flawless for $9000 is going to yield less of a percentage loss on average than a box of Flawless sold through breaks for $12k overall cost. This isn't rocket science.

You're also failing to grasp there is no big upside now in almost every product. Over the last few years there were many products that you could pull 6 or 7 figure cards. 2022 football has 1 card worth over $100k. It's already been pulled. The #1 card in 2022 Prizm football sold for around $25k. Box prices have gone up quite a bit since that card was pulled. There isn't a single card in 2022 Prizm available that would cover 2 hobby cases right now. A Brocky Purdy prizm silver auto, at least a week ago who knows now, didn't even cover a hobby box cost. Pull the best rookie silver auto in a very long odds hit and you can still lose on a box.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Most breaks on mid to high end do only yield 5-10% right now specifically on higher end football. Now on lower end products or stuff bought around MSRP maybe it's not that low. It's going to be hard to consistently only get back $13 on a $130ish a box of Select Draft Picks for example. It seems likely the further away from MSRP better chances of the bigger percentage losses. Flawless football hobby boxes the average box will yield less than $1000. You would think people would stop buying in but they keep buying. If you think it's only a 50% loss for most people buying into breaks I don't know what to tell you. If you think opening your own boxes at a lower overall cost is more of a loss than buying into breaks at a higher overall cost I don't know what to tell you. Buying a box of Flawless for $9000 is going to yield less of a percentage loss on average than a box of Flawless sold through breaks for $12k overall cost. This isn't rocket science.

2023 Select Draft Picks, with 45 cards per box, and $130 cost.
3 Autographs per Box
3 Base Silver Cards per Box
6 Base Parallels per Box
6 Inserts per Box

Can you really tell the class, that the average break is only going to get back $6.50-$13.00 when you get 3 autos, 3 silvers, 6 parallels, 6 inserts and 27 base cards, which will mostly be the newest rookies people are chasing.

Really? $0.15 to $0.30 per card? Really? Looks like we are both talking in circles. But I don't think anyone is going to agree with your math.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grid

2023 Select Draft Picks, with 45 cards per box, and $130 cost.
3 Autographs per Box
3 Base Silver Cards per Box
6 Base Parallels per Box
6 Inserts per Box

Can you really tell the class, that the average break is only going to get back $6.50-$13.00 when you get 3 autos, 3 silvers, 6 parallels, 6 inserts and 27 base cards, which will mostly be the newest rookies people are chasing.

Really? $0.15 to $0.30 per card? Really? Looks like we are both talking in circles. But I don't think anyone is going to agree with your math.

I just said that on something like Select Draft Picks it's going to be hard to only be around 10%. Same with any product that is low end, around, or below MSRP. Mid to high end way over MSRP, specifically Flawless football, it's going to be very easy to only get back 10% on average. But even that is based on the cost of buying your own boxes. Breaks you can up the cost by 25-35% on average.

I don't think even the most bullish people on breaks have made an argument like you tried to claim. Saying the average break somehow people are only losing 50% on average lol what a crock. All this is a prime example of why I hardly post now. There is no point in arguing. This is just stupid and a waste of time.