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Old 09-15-2023, 08:43 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Raleigh504 View Post
Just the names:

2024 ELIGIBLES
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ
JOE MAUER
CHASE UTLEY
DAVID WRIGHT

2025 ELIGIBLES
FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ
CC SABATHIA
ICHIRO SUZUKI
TROY TULOWITZKI

2026 ELIGIBLES
COLE HAMELS

2027 ELIGIBLES
BUSTER POSEY

2028 ELIGIBLES
YADIER MOLINA
ALBERT PUJOLS
I'm a high-peak guy so that pushes King Felix, Tulo & Hamels over, barely. I could take them, Wright & Utley off and be fine.
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Old 09-15-2023, 08:52 AM   #27
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What is the deal with Colon? I never even put a thought into him as a HOFer. Is it his 250 win total (which is impressive in today's game). I don't remember ever thinking Colon was dominant in any way. Soria - really? No way he even gets the 5% to stay on ballet.

2024 ELIGIBLES
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ - IN
BARTOLO COLON - I guess he stays on ballet??
MATT HOLLIDAY - would like to him stay on ballet, but I don't think he is a HOFer
JOE MAUER - IN, won't be first ballot
CHASE UTLEY - I think he stays on ballet and will be a slow riser, toss up.
DAVID WRIGHT - maybe he gets one year sympathy reprieve, but probably not

2025 ELIGIBLES
CURTIS GRANDERSON - just wanted to say one my fav players, won't get it
FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ - will stay on ballet, writers would need to reward short peak
CC SABATHIA - IN
ICHIRO SUZUKI - IN
TROY TULOWITZKI - similar to Wright

2026 ELIGIBLES
COLE HAMELS - will stay on ballet and get a long look.

2027 ELIGIBLES
BUSTER POSEY - Gets in, not on first ballet

2028 ELIGIBLES
YADIER MOLINA - IN
ALBERT PUJOLS - IN
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Old 09-15-2023, 09:04 AM   #28
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Old 09-15-2023, 09:40 AM   #29
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The Hall of Stats has Mauer at 10th all time catcher, Posey is at 17 in comparison. And they have him at 185 all time MLB. Don't see how he would not be in the Hall of Fame. Plus the guy played with the Twins his whole career, grew up in the Twin Cities, had to show off and have twin children, and he gets to purify himself in the waters of lake Minnetonka everyday (okay maybe not in winter).

http://hallofstats.com/player/mauerjo01

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Old 09-15-2023, 09:58 AM   #30
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Lot of great catchers. I hope they all get the recognition they deserve.

Mauer, Posey, Molina all deserve to be in the Hall IMO.
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Old 09-15-2023, 10:08 AM   #31
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Hamels - no way he gets in when you have better pitchers getting zero looks(ie Kevin Brown). Hamels doesn't have close to 200 wins, a mid 3 ERA, doesn't have 3k strikeouts, a handful of All Stars and 1 time did he finish top 5 in CY voting. He's not getting in.

Lester is an interesting case, but again, he's behind other guys and if they aren't in, why should Lester. I think he might gain some traction, but that WAR is way low. I think he has a better shot though than Hamels
Kevin Brown was in the Mitchell report, so... there's that.

For Lester, I think you're severely underestimating what winning 2 WS with the Red Sox + being the ace on the WS winning Cubs will do in the minds of voters. Between that and his beating cancer early in his career... yeah, he's very likely to get in.
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Old 09-15-2023, 10:12 AM   #32
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For Colon and Pedroia:

Pedroia is a media darling like Big Papi and being from Boston too doesn't hurt

Colon will get in since he is looked fondly on and with the PED part, Big Papi got in even with taking roids so not sure why others shouldn't get in. He is just loved by the media which is why it got swept under the rug.
I mean, I’m not really sure how Pedi is media darling, but I like him because he’s one of the all time great hustle guys. He worked hard and wasn’t afraid to fight and scrape for everything he got. I still put Pedi’s chances of getting in at 0%.
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Old 09-15-2023, 10:13 AM   #33
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Agree with Colon. I don’t see anyway he’s close to getting in. A 4.12 life time ERA… which is a decent bit higher than Jack Morris (the easy low hanging fruit to compare to). If you look at his ERA with each team he played for 9 of 11 are 3.90 and above. It’s not like he held on too long and did real damage to his overall ERA. His lowest ERA with any team came with the A’s at age 39 and 40 with an ERA of 2.99 and coincidentally this is when he received a 50 game PED suspension for synthetic testosterone.

These days it seems Colon is most remembered for hitting a hefty guy who hit his first career home run at age 42. It just doesn’t have the same cred as throwing a 10 inning shut out of game 7 of a World Series, especially after already serving a PED suspension.


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Old 09-15-2023, 10:17 AM   #34
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My guess are, with a * meaning it's really 50/50 for me

2024 ELIGIBLES
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ
BARTOLO COLON*
JOE MAUER*
CHASE UTLEY

2025 ELIGIBLES
CC SABATHIA
ICHIRO SUZUKI

2026 ELIGIBLES

2027 ELIGIBLES
BUSTER POSEY

2028 ELIGIBLES
YADIER MOLINA
ALBERT PUJOLS
I'd drop Utley, but otherwise this looks about like my list.
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Old 09-15-2023, 10:48 AM   #35
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2024 eligibles
adrián beltré
joe mauer

2025 eligibles
ichiro suzuki

2026 eligibles

2027 eligibles
buster posey

2028 eligibles
yadier molina
albert pujols
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Old 09-15-2023, 11:07 AM   #36
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For Lester, I think you're severely underestimating what winning 2 WS with the Red Sox + being the ace on the WS winning Cubs will do in the minds of voters. Between that and his beating cancer early in his career... yeah, he's very likely to get in.
At this point he is likely the only player that was on the 2016 W.S. roster that has a legit case for the HOF. He definitely has a much better case than Colon.
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Old 09-15-2023, 11:10 AM   #37
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If Harold Baines can get in, any of those names can
How many of them have 2866 hits and 1628 RBIs? I am guessing Pujols is the only one. So, no there aren't very many who can get in.

Beltre
Mauer
Ichiro
Sabathia
Posey
Molina
Pujols

That is about it.
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Old 09-15-2023, 11:15 AM   #38
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These are my takes as a baseball fan. Obviously means nothing, but just how I see it.

2024 ELIGIBLES
JOSÉ BAUTISTA - stays on ballot for a few years then quietly falls off. Maybe a veteran’s committee entrance at some point.
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ - IN
BARTOLO COLON - will get enough to stay on because of longevity and how likable he was, just not dominate enough to actually get in.
ADRIÁN GONZÁLEZ - doesn’t stay on the ballot
MATT HOLLIDAY - Cardinal HOF, not baseball.
JIM JOHNSON - nope
VICTOR MARTINEZ - nope
JOE MAUER - yep. One of the best wearers of the tools of ignorance. Obviously injury cut his time short behind the plate, but he was dominate back there and had a rare bat for a catcher. The whole career with one team in a city that loves him.
BRANDON PHILLIPS - close for me, but no.
JOSÉ REYES - nope
JAMES SHIELDS - nope
CHASE UTLEY - I think he will get in after a few years.
DAVID WRIGHT - I really wish he would, but again injury plagued and I think he just misses it. He was so great for a period of time and again like Mauer, played in a city that loves him and always will.
BRAD ZIEGLER - nope

2025 ELIGIBLES
MELKY CABRERA - no, just no.
DAVID FREESE - close but no.
CARLOS GÓMEZ - nope
CARLOS GONZÁLEZ - nope
CURTIS GRANDERSON - nope
FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ - I think so, but may be close and take a few years.
EDWIN JACKSON - nope
ADAM JONES - nope
IAN KINSLER - nope
FRANCISCO LIRIANO - nope
RUSSELL MARTIN - nope
BRIAN MCCANN - nope
KENDRYS MORALES - nope
DUSTIN PEDROIA - nope
MARTÍN PRADO - nope
HANLEY RAMÍREZ - no
MARK REYNOLDS - nope
FERNANDO RODNEY - nope
CC SABATHIA - should get in
ICHIRO SUZUKI - is there any question???
TROY TULOWITZKI - nope
BEN ZOBRIST - nope

2026 ELIGIBLES
RYAN BRAUN - absolutely not
SHIN-SOO CHOO - nope
EDWIN ENCARNACIÓN - nope
GIO GONZÁLEZ - nope
ALEX GORDON - nope
COLE HAMELS - I’m close here, but think no
MATT KEMP - nope
HOWIE KENDRICK - nope
NICK MARKAKIS - nope
DANIEL MURPHY - nope
HUNTER PENCE - nope
RICK PORCELLO - nope
NEIL WALKER - nope

2027 ELIGIBLES
JAKE ARRIETA - thinking no
JAY BRUCE - no
WADE DAVIS - nope
DEXTER FOWLER - nope
TODD FRAZIER - nope
J.A. HAPP - nope
JON LESTER - maybe, but not for me
ANDREW MILLER - nope
MITCH MORELAND - nope
BUSTER POSEY - yes
KYLE SEAGER - nope
JOAKIM SORIA - nope
RYAN ZIMMERMAN - nope
JORDAN ZIMMERMANN - nope

2028 ELIGIBLES
LORENZO CAIN - nope
BROCK HOLT - nope
DARREN O'DAY - nope
YADIER MOLINA - yep
ALBERT PUJOLS - could we get another unanimous?
KURT SUZUKI - love the guy, but thinking no.
STEPHEN VOGT - nope
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Old 09-15-2023, 11:17 AM   #39
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LOCKS

adrián beltré

ichiro suzuki

buster posey

yadier molina

albert pujols

EVENTUALLY

joe mauer

cc sabathia

POTENTIALLY

dustin pedroia
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Old 09-15-2023, 01:21 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by dashcol View Post
These are my takes as a baseball fan. Obviously means nothing, but just how I see it.

2024 ELIGIBLES
JOSÉ BAUTISTA - stays on ballot for a few years then quietly falls off. Maybe a veteran’s committee entrance at some point.
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ - IN
BARTOLO COLON - will get enough to stay on because of longevity and how likable he was, just not dominate enough to actually get in.
ADRIÁN GONZÁLEZ - doesn’t stay on the ballot
MATT HOLLIDAY - Cardinal HOF, not baseball.
JIM JOHNSON - nope
VICTOR MARTINEZ - nope
JOE MAUER - yep. One of the best wearers of the tools of ignorance. Obviously injury cut his time short behind the plate, but he was dominate back there and had a rare bat for a catcher. The whole career with one team in a city that loves him.
BRANDON PHILLIPS - close for me, but no.
JOSÉ REYES - nope
JAMES SHIELDS - nope
CHASE UTLEY - I think he will get in after a few years.
DAVID WRIGHT - I really wish he would, but again injury plagued and I think he just misses it. He was so great for a period of time and again like Mauer, played in a city that loves him and always will.
BRAD ZIEGLER - nope

2025 ELIGIBLES
MELKY CABRERA - no, just no.
DAVID FREESE - close but no.
CARLOS GÓMEZ - nope
CARLOS GONZÁLEZ - nope
CURTIS GRANDERSON - nope
FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ - I think so, but may be close and take a few years.
EDWIN JACKSON - nope
ADAM JONES - nope
IAN KINSLER - nope
FRANCISCO LIRIANO - nope
RUSSELL MARTIN - nope
BRIAN MCCANN - nope
KENDRYS MORALES - nope
DUSTIN PEDROIA - nope
MARTÍN PRADO - nope
HANLEY RAMÍREZ - no
MARK REYNOLDS - nope
FERNANDO RODNEY - nope
CC SABATHIA - should get in
ICHIRO SUZUKI - is there any question???
TROY TULOWITZKI - nope
BEN ZOBRIST - nope

2026 ELIGIBLES
RYAN BRAUN - absolutely not
SHIN-SOO CHOO - nope
EDWIN ENCARNACIÓN - nope
GIO GONZÁLEZ - nope
ALEX GORDON - nope
COLE HAMELS - I’m close here, but think no
MATT KEMP - nope
HOWIE KENDRICK - nope
NICK MARKAKIS - nope
DANIEL MURPHY - nope
HUNTER PENCE - nope
RICK PORCELLO - nope
NEIL WALKER - nope

2027 ELIGIBLES
JAKE ARRIETA - thinking no
JAY BRUCE - no
WADE DAVIS - nope
DEXTER FOWLER - nope
TODD FRAZIER - nope
J.A. HAPP - nope
JON LESTER - maybe, but not for me
ANDREW MILLER - nope
MITCH MORELAND - nope
BUSTER POSEY - yes
KYLE SEAGER - nope
JOAKIM SORIA - nope
RYAN ZIMMERMAN - nope
JORDAN ZIMMERMANN - nope

2028 ELIGIBLES
LORENZO CAIN - nope
BROCK HOLT - nope
DARREN O'DAY - nope
YADIER MOLINA - yep
ALBERT PUJOLS - could we get another unanimous?
KURT SUZUKI - love the guy, but thinking no.
STEPHEN VOGT - nope
How in the world are Bautista and Felix HOFers?

They would be among the very worst if elected. And Bautista would have a case as the least-deserving HOFer.
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Old 09-15-2023, 01:27 PM   #41
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The Hall of Stats has Mauer at 10th all time catcher, Posey is at 17 in comparison. And they have him at 185 all time MLB. Don't see how he would not be in the Hall of Fame. Plus the guy played with the Twins his whole career, grew up in the Twin Cities, had to show off and have twin children, and he gets to purify himself in the waters of lake Minnetonka everyday (okay maybe not in winter).

http://hallofstats.com/player/mauerjo01
The problem for Mauer is that he played almost half his career at 1B/DH and didn't catch a single game after his age 30 season.

So you can't evaluate him purely as a catcher....
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Old 09-15-2023, 01:55 PM   #42
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1st Ballot Locks:
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ
ICHIRO SUZUKI
ALBERT PUJOLS

Probably eventually :
CC SABATHIA
YADIER MOLINA (has good longevity, solid WAR, not quite the offensive numbers but I think he makes it in)

Maybe, has a chance but I can't say for sure :
BARTOLO COLON
FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ
BUSTER POSEY (I don't see him as certain as others say he is, longevity issue and didn't put up gaudy numbers)
JOE MAUER (another longevity issue, injured so much)
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Old 09-15-2023, 02:59 PM   #43
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There is no way Colon is a HOFer. His ERA would be inexcusible, and his wins total is a result of him playing for 21 years. Also, for having played that long, he should have way more than 2,500 Ks to be taken seriously as a HOFer.
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Old 09-15-2023, 03:11 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raleigh504 View Post
Just the names:

2024 ELIGIBLES

ADRIÁN BELTRÉ
CHASE UTLEY

ICHIRO


2025 ELIGIBLES

FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ


2026 ELIGIBLES

COLE HAMELS


2027 ELIGIBLES

BUSTER POSEY


2028 ELIGIBLES

ALBERT PUJOLS

Here is my list of people that will be in eventually

Oh and Sabathia
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Old 09-15-2023, 03:18 PM   #45
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I also look who they are going up against too. If its a weaker class and guys got in already who could steal votes then they could slide into the HOF
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Old 09-15-2023, 03:20 PM   #46
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Bartolo Colon has exactly zero chance of making the Hall of Fame. An E.R.A. of 4.14 and a steroid suspension make his candidacy a non-starter.
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Old 09-15-2023, 03:36 PM   #47
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There is no way Colon is a HOFer. His ERA would be inexcusible, and his wins total is a result of him playing for 21 years. Also, for having played that long, he should have way more than 2,500 Ks to be taken seriously as a HOFer.
Forgot about his steroid suspension that makes it zero chance for him to get in. But stat wise, he's really not that far off from Jack Morris who eventually made it in.
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Old 09-15-2023, 03:55 PM   #48
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2027 ELIGIBLES
BUSTER POSEY
JOAKIM SORIA

OK, I gotta hear the story on this one...
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Old 09-15-2023, 03:55 PM   #49
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Also when saying Colon would get in, does anyone remember he got suspended for roids?

No way he sniffs the HOF
Exactly.
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Old 09-15-2023, 04:00 PM   #50
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Forgot about his steroid suspension that makes it zero chance for him to get in. But stat wise, he's really not that far off from Jack Morris who eventually made it in.

Yea I actually forgot about the steroid suspension as well. I was going with my gut on Colon (pun intended) more from longevity/likability than dominance. It’s not just a numbers game.

I’m legitimately surprised by people that are doubting Yadi’s induction. If he’s not a hall of famer then defense means absolutely nothing.


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