Looking at Future HOF classes

[jrosales]

Originally Posted by scotthenrichs

Forgot about his steroid suspension that makes it zero chance for him to get in. But stat wise, he's really not that far off from Jack Morris who eventually made it in.

Morris is one of the worst HOF choices. But he at least had a narrative that helped convince voters (1991 World Series, winningest pitcher in the 80s).

All Colon has is hitting a HR in his 40s and possibly his CY season (which really isn't anything special)

[DioBrando]

Originally Posted by jrosales

Morris is one of the worst HOF choices. But he at least had a narrative that helped convince voters (1991 World Series, winningest pitcher in the 80s).

All Colon has is hitting a HR in his 40s and possibly his CY season (which really isn't anything special)

Since you brought up Morris, his "most wins of the 80's) was always his big selling point for the HOF. Mark Grace had the most hits in the 90's and I don't think I've ever heard anyone arguing for him to get in. IMO, both are strict Hall of Very Good

[Handsome Wes]

My votes, not including holdovers.
Also, I don't believe in the "I think he's a HOF, just not a first-ballot one" mentality.

2024
Adrian Beltre
Joe Mauer
David Wright*

2025
CC Sabathia
Ichiro Suzuki**

2026
...Honestly? Pass. Maybe Cole Hamels, but I'll need to see an argument for him.

2027
Buster Posey

2028
Albert Pujols, unanimously
Yadier Molina, I guess


*Not voting for Utley because I'm a salty Mets fan. Also, I am voting for Wright even though I believe he is below the borderline as a player because he is a standout person in terms of character, and because I'm a salty Mets fan.

** If Ichiro isn't a unanimous HOFer, I don't know what to tell you. Also, I might be talked into voting for Dustin Pedroia or Felix Hernandez, but I'm just going off of initial impressions.

[jrosales]

Originally Posted by DioBrando

Since you brought up Morris, his "most wins of the 80's) was always his big selling point for the HOF. Mark Grace had the most hits in the 90's and I don't think I've ever heard anyone arguing for him to get in. IMO, both are strict Hall of Very Good

Again, i'm anti-Morris in the HOF, and I'm anti-Grace as well

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by jrosales

How in the world are Bautista and Felix HOFers?

They would be among the very worst if elected. And Bautista would have a case as the least-deserving HOFer.

I actually said Bautista does not get in, and that MAYBE the vets would put him in eventually.

As for King Felix

1 CY Young
6x AS
Perfect game

In the late 00s and early 10s, he was dominate. 2009 - 19 wins 2.49 ERA, 217 Ks.
2010 - 2.27 ERA, 2014 - 2.14 ERA
2012 - 5 SHO in one year, 5. For perspective he only had five more his entire career and led the league with 2 in 2015. Valdez has the most this year with 2. 5 is insane.

Yes he got bad in the end. He was a shadow of his former self but from about 2008-2015 he was a top pitcher in the game. That’s a 7 year span where he was strong.

I also said I think so, but it would be close. I can see him not getting in as well. I don’t think he would be among the very worst.

[jrosales]

Originally Posted by dashcol

I actually said Bautista does not get in, and that MAYBE the vets would put him in eventually.

As for King Felix

1 CY Young
6x AS
Perfect game

In the late 00s and early 10s, he was dominate. 2009 - 19 wins 2.49 ERA, 217 Ks.
2010 - 2.27 ERA, 2014 - 2.14 ERA
2012 - 5 SHO in one year, 5. For perspective he only had five more his entire career and led the league with 2 in 2015. Valdez has the most this year with 2. 5 is insane.

Yes he got bad in the end. He was a shadow of his former self but from about 2008-2015 he was a top pitcher in the game. That’s a 7 year span where he was strong.

I also said I think so, but it would be close. I can see him not getting in as well. I don’t think he would be among the very worst.

There's no way the vets will ever vote Bautista in. What is your reasoning for that?

[Hollywood42]

This conversation has been had and will be re-had, and I don't care to get too far into it again right now, but:

Mauer had a slam dunk HOF career as a catcher from 2004-2013 while doing things that literally no catcher in the history of the sport had ever done before. Then after that yes, he played 5 years as a primary 1B, but it's not like he was some terrible negative impact guy during that time in the same vein as Pujols or Miggy. Nowhere close to that. So how do you take a 9+ year career as a catcher that nobody should argue isn't worth induction, add to it some positive value (whatever you think that is) over an additional 5 years as a 1B, and somehow that no longer makes him a Hall of Famer?

A particularly favorite tweet of mine from Jay Jaffe to help illustrate- https://twitter.com/jay_jaffe/status...02738325020675

And, fun fact, over that '04-'13 span, Mauer put up almost exactly the same WAR that Posey, who people generally seem to think is a lock, put up over his entire career. I know Posey has 3 rings on his resume whereas Mauer has none, and clearly that makes a big difference, but it's gotta make you think...

Originally Posted by mfw13

The problem for Mauer is that he played almost half his career at 1B/DH and didn't catch a single game after his age 30 season.

So you can't evaluate him purely as a catcher....

[mwash1983]

None of you live near or are in Cooperstown often like I am. I know the town like a book. This is what I see for hall of fame talk. Next year will be Beltre, Helton, Wagner, Cooperstown wants to have three and Helton would draw. 2025 will be Ichiro mania, this will be the attendance breaker, CC I think gets pushed a year but I can see Ichiro and Mauer in a two of the best hitters in the past 25 years. 2026 will be CC’s year as they would want to have thr NY market in a weak class. 2027 that is Posey and he will draw well as he was the heart of those Giants teams. 2028 no doubt they put in Pujols and Molina, Cooperstown loves the cardinals.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by jrosales

There's no way the vets will ever vote Bautista in. What is your reasoning for that?

Because of his story which would emanate more with vets than writers. From what I remember he was also very well liked in the clubhouses, which also means a lot to vets.

Again, I never said he would get in. I said he would have enough to stay on the ballot for a couple years, and then fall off. Then MAYBE the vest would put him in. I am not arguing for him to be in, just that the vets might put him in. Who knows.

[free2131]

As far as positional comparisons are concerned, if Jeff Kent isn't a HOFer, then Utley and Pedroia certainly are not.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

So how do you take a 9+ year career as a catcher that nobody should argue isn't worth induction, add to it some positive value (whatever you think that is) over an additional 5 years as a 1B, and somehow that no longer makes him a Hall of Famer?

Because the HOF standards for a catcher and the HOF standards for 1B/DH types are VERY different.

As a catcher, Mauer hit for a very high average with very little power, and was good, but not great, on defense. So the question really is how much value do people place on the fact that he was a Tony Gwynn/Wade Boggs clone at the plate? Because that's arguably the ONLY skill at which he was above average.

[Timmy Lupus]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

This conversation has been had and will be re-had, and I don't care to get too far into it again right now, but:

Mauer had a slam dunk HOF career as a catcher from 2004-2013 while doing things that literally no catcher in the history of the sport had ever done before. Then after that yes, he played 5 years as a primary 1B, but it's not like he was some terrible negative impact guy during that time in the same vein as Pujols or Miggy. Nowhere close to that. So how do you take a 9+ year career as a catcher that nobody should argue isn't worth induction, add to it some positive value (whatever you think that is) over an additional 5 years as a 1B, and somehow that no longer makes him a Hall of Famer?

A particularly favorite tweet of mine from Jay Jaffe to help illustrate- https://twitter.com/jay_jaffe/status...02738325020675

And, fun fact, over that '04-'13 span, Mauer put up almost exactly the same WAR that Posey, who people generally seem to think is a lock, put up over his entire career. I know Posey has 3 rings on his resume whereas Mauer has none, and clearly that makes a big difference, but it's gotta make you think...

Yes. Also Mauer has three batting titles and Posey has one. They have very similar career WAR (one has a bit more bWAR and the other a bit more fWAR, if I recall correctly). There is more buzz around Posey because he played in a bigger market and because of the three World Series wins, of course, but at the end of the day they had very similar careers and both will go to Cooperstown via the writers' ballot. Yadi will get in, too, even though he is behind both Mauer and Posey in offensive production numbers.

[jduds]

Originally Posted by mwash1983

None of you live near or are in Cooperstown often like I am. I know the town like a book. This is what I see for hall of fame talk. Next year will be Beltre, Helton, Wagner, Cooperstown wants to have three and Helton would draw. 2025 will be Ichiro mania, this will be the attendance breaker, CC I think gets pushed a year but I can see Ichiro and Mauer in a two of the best hitters in the past 25 years. 2026 will be CC’s year as they would want to have thr NY market in a weak class. 2027 that is Posey and he will draw well as he was the heart of those Giants teams. 2028 no doubt they put in Pujols and Molina, Cooperstown loves the cardinals.

What does knowing the town have to do with who gets in?

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by mwash1983

None of you live near or are in Cooperstown often like I am. I know the town like a book. This is what I see for hall of fame talk. Next year will be Beltre, Helton, Wagner, Cooperstown wants to have three and Helton would draw. 2025 will be Ichiro mania, this will be the attendance breaker, CC I think gets pushed a year but I can see Ichiro and Mauer in a two of the best hitters in the past 25 years. 2026 will be CC’s year as they would want to have thr NY market in a weak class. 2027 that is Posey and he will draw well as he was the heart of those Giants teams. 2028 no doubt they put in Pujols and Molina, Cooperstown loves the cardinals.

Baseball writers don’t live in Cooperstown

[Rbradleigh]

After a quick skim; Beltre, Pujols, Ichiro, maybe Mauer, maybe Utley


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[Rbradleigh]

I forgot Yadi and Posey. Wow not a single sure fire starter


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[Hollywood42]

Again - he already had a complete HOF career as a catcher before switching to 1B/DH. Why would he also need to have a HOF level stretch at 1B/DH to get in, if he already had a complete HOF career as a catcher, and wasn't a negative at 1B/DH?

Obviously Mauer's calling card was his average. But again, he was just the 3rd catcher in MLB history to win a batting title, and the first to do so in the AL - and he did it 3 times! Idk, saying average is the "ONLY" skill he was above average at seems incredibly dismissive, sorta like saying Jim Thome's only above average skill was hitting home runs. May not be quite to that effect, but that same sort of idea

And for the record, he was great, not good, defensively

Originally Posted by mfw13

Because the HOF standards for a catcher and the HOF standards for 1B/DH types are VERY different.

As a catcher, Mauer hit for a very high average with very little power, and was good, but not great, on defense. So the question really is how much value do people place on the fact that he was a Tony Gwynn/Wade Boggs clone at the plate? Because that's arguably the ONLY skill at which he was above average.

[green4407]

2024 ELIGIBLES
JOSÉ BAUTISTA
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ
BARTOLO COLON
ADRIÁN GONZÁLEZ
MATT HOLLIDAY
VICTOR MARTINEZ
JOE MAUER
CHASE UTLEY
DAVID WRIGHT
BRAD ZIEGLER

2025 ELIGIBLES
CURTIS GRANDERSON
FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ
IAN KINSLER
BRIAN MCCANN
DUSTIN PEDROIA
CC SABATHIA
ICHIRO SUZUKI
TROY TULOWITZKI

2026 ELIGIBLES
RYAN BRAUN
EDWIN ENCARNACIÓN
COLE HAMELS
HUNTER PENCE

2027 ELIGIBLES
JON LESTER
BUSTER POSEY
RYAN ZIMMERMAN

2028 ELIGIBLES
YADIER MOLINA
ALBERT PUJOLS
KURT SUZUKI
STEPHEN VOGT

These guys are in my HOF.

[Bars and Bar]

Originally Posted by green4407

2024 ELIGIBLES
JOSÉ BAUTISTA
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ
BARTOLO COLON
ADRIÁN GONZÁLEZ
MATT HOLLIDAY
VICTOR MARTINEZ
JOE MAUER
CHASE UTLEY
DAVID WRIGHT
BRAD ZIEGLER

2025 ELIGIBLES
CURTIS GRANDERSON
FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ
IAN KINSLER
BRIAN MCCANN
DUSTIN PEDROIA
CC SABATHIA
ICHIRO SUZUKI
TROY TULOWITZKI

2026 ELIGIBLES
RYAN BRAUN
EDWIN ENCARNACIÓN
COLE HAMELS
HUNTER PENCE

2027 ELIGIBLES
JON LESTER
BUSTER POSEY
RYAN ZIMMERMAN

2028 ELIGIBLES
YADIER MOLINA
ALBERT PUJOLS
KURT SUZUKI
STEPHEN VOGT

These guys are in my HOF.

Throw this list away

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Because the HOF standards for a catcher and the HOF standards for 1B/DH types are VERY different.

As a catcher, Mauer hit for a very high average with very little power, and was good, but not great, on defense. So the question really is how much value do people place on the fact that he was a Tony Gwynn/Wade Boggs clone at the plate? Because that's arguably the ONLY skill at which he was above average.

What Mauer did as a catcher will be plenty enough to get him in the Hall of Fame. He’s a catcher, will go in as a catcher, and will forever be known as a catcher. When a player’s greatness is defined a certain way, that’s what ends up mattering most.

No one would call Babe Ruth a Hall of Fame pitcher. Though he was a great pitcher, it’s not why he’s in the Hall. Ernie Banks is in the Hall as a shortstop even though he played more games at 1st base. Yaz played over 1,100 games at first and DH; it has no bearing on his legacy as a Hall of Fame LF. Etc

[jlzinck]

Originally Posted by free2131

2024 eligibles
adrián beltré
joe mauer

2025 eligibles
ichiro suzuki

2026 eligibles

2027 eligibles
buster posey

2028 eligibles
yadier molina
albert pujols

I can get behind this. I am rooting for Lester for my own selfish reasons

[WHyFLy]

Originally Posted by scotthenrichs

1st Ballot Locks:
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ
ICHIRO SUZUKI
ALBERT PUJOLS

Probably eventually :
CC SABATHIA
YADIER MOLINA (has good longevity, solid WAR, not quite the offensive numbers but I think he makes it in)

Maybe, has a chance but I can't say for sure :
BARTOLO COLON
FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ
BUSTER POSEY (I don't see him as certain as others say he is, longevity issue and didn't put up gaudy numbers)
JOE MAUER (another longevity issue, injured so much)

You're insane if you do not think Molina gets in First Ballot... Greatest Defensive Catcher we've seen since Bench and 2k Hits in career. 10x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x World Series Champ? How the hell does that not get you 1st Ballot?

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

Colon will get in since he is looked fondly on and with the PED part, Big Papi got in even with taking roids so not sure why others shouldn't get in. He is just loved by the media which is why it got swept under the rug.

I don’t understand why colon is so universally loved, besides for hitting a HR when he was fat. I’ve seen everyone reference his Roids but I remember him more for his secret family or whatever it was scandal and refusing to pay child support. Like but all accounts he seems like a pretty big piece of #@#@#@#@.

[eye4talent]

2024: Beltre, Mauer
2025: Ichiro, Sabathia
2026: n/a
2027: Posey
2028: Pujols, Molina

Pujols and Ichiro should be unanimous.
Beltre should also be first-ballot, as he is his position’s all-time leader in hits, RBI, and xbh. And he was a defensive stud.

I have Posey bias, but he was the leader of the Giants dynasty. He doesn’t need to wait.

Utley shouldn’t get in. Definitely not before Jeff Kent. And really, Utley’s career numbers are about the same as David Wright’s—though Wright was clearly better when healthy. Different position, but they’re worth comparing as non-1B infielders. And really, they’re not that far ahead of Ryan Zimmerman. (Though on any given day, Zimmerman is clearly third among the three.)

There’s no way Colon should get in with his 4.12 ERA. Felix Hernandez’s truncated career is more deserving, though he’s ultimately not a HOFer. Sabathia definitely is, though.


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[rats60]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

2024: Beltre, Mauer
2025: Ichiro, Sabathia
2026: n/a
2027: Posey
2028: Pujols, Molina

Pujols and Ichiro should be unanimous.
Beltre should also be first-ballot, as he is his position’s all-time leader in hits, RBI, and xbh. And he was a defensive stud.

I have Posey bias, but he was the leader of the Giants dynasty. He doesn’t need to wait.

Utley shouldn’t get in. Definitely not before Jeff Kent. And really, Utley’s career numbers are about the same as David Wright’s—though Wright was clearly better when healthy. Different position, but they’re worth comparing as non-1B infielders. And really, they’re not that far ahead of Ryan Zimmerman. (Though on any given day, Zimmerman is clearly third among the three.)

There’s no way Colon should get in with his 4.12 ERA. Felix Hernandez’s truncated career is more deserving, though he’s ultimately not a HOFer. Sabathia definitely is, though.


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That we are saying Sabathia is in just shows how low the bar is on making the HOF. He will instantly be one of the worst players in the HOF.

Some of the guys that some are pushing are even worse. The quality of players in these classes is really low, but the writers need to elect players so the HOF can have an induction ceremony and keep the Cooperstown economy going.