📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Pandemic peak prices should be thrown out forever, it was so far from reality.

Plus, we're not talking about prices from the 2021 peak. We're talking about from here going forward

Let's assume you hit the lottery and have $500K to invest. Which one would you pick now? Some of the choices based on their current price range ($400K-$500K)-

1. Ruth 1916 M101 (mid grade)
2. Mantle 1952 Topps (Nicely centered PSA 7)
3. Jordan 1997 UD GUJ Auto BGS 8
4. Lebron 2003 Exquisite RPA Gold/23 BGS 8.5
5. Brady 2000 Champ Ticket BGS 8.5/PSA 8
6. Stock market or Real estate
7. Other- mention your own pick

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Let's assume you hit the lottery and have 500K to invest. Which one would you pick now? Some of the choices bases on the price range (400K-500K)-

1. Ruth 1916 M101 (mid grade)
2. Mantle 1952 Topps (Nicely centered PSA 7)
3. Jordan 1997 UD GUJ Auto BGS 8
4. Lebron 2003 Exquisite RPA Gold/23 BGS 8.5
5. Brady 2000 Champ Ticket BGS 8.5/PSA 8
6. Stock market or Real estate

You can include your own pick.

There's no chance I pick any card over the stock market, so let's just take that one out.

Of all of those I'm taking the Bron Exquisite, I think that one has the most room to grow. Someone else mentioned it and I think it makes sense there is a whole generation of Bron fans that have yet to hit their financial peak earning years. There's gonna be a lot more demand for this than the others and it's limited in supply.

Jordan isn't getting any more popular and I think his collectors are slowly dwindling with time.

I don't know anything about baseball so I won't comment and I just don't think Football is popular enough outside of the US to really garner that much demand.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Just ignore that guy. He can't make a single post without trashing LeBron.

He's just sad and angry all the time about someone who doesn't even know he exists

pcptrade had an acronym for these types, POBA - Psycho Obsessed Bron something

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

pcptrade had an acronym for these types, POBA - Psycho Obsessed Bron something

Hey, that's not me. I think it is blackbears86 who uses the acronym POBA IIRC

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Let's assume you hit the lottery and have $500K to invest. Which one would you pick now? Some of the choices based on their current price range ($400K-$500K)-

1. Ruth 1916 M101 (mid grade)
2. Mantle 1952 Topps (Nicely centered PSA 7)
3. Jordan 1997 UD GUJ Auto BGS 8
4. Lebron 2003 Exquisite RPA Gold/23 BGS 8.5
5. Brady 2000 Champ Ticket BGS 8.5/PSA 8
6. Stock market or Real estate
7. Other- mention your own pick

I figured the Ruth is the obvious pick. Sure, there's only 23 of the Bron or the MJ, but there's also many other cards/RC of these players.

If one could have a pick of several cards, I'd probably go with the highest-grade Star 117 MJ and there's probably still a lot of growth potential with Jokic (though Bubblemurray+Gordon health is apparently crucial so it's a gamble). Both Jokic and Giannis look poised to move well into the top-10 of the MVP Shares crowd and with the exception of Mailman those are the game's top legends. I wouldn't bet big on Giannis's health, however. I'm just amazed that his frame can take all those drives to the basket as it is. Jokic's game doesn't depend so much on that level of physicality.

Also, what are the high-grade Mr. Russell RCs going for? Someone asked (again) about the Rushmore of basketball cards (oh wait that was you lol) and I don't know how one can leave that off. I'd have that one, the Bird/Magic, the MJ 57, and whatever the Bron card that was nominated. (Kobe Chrome can't withstand the greening/hulking problem.)

[GOATcards]

most importantly, how does one get images into one's thread headlines?

[SoccerRCs]

I am very bullish over a long horizon, 10+ years. That said, lots of problems in the short term and I expect ultra modern to continue to crater. The one hope I'd say that people have for prices to find a bottom is the sheer enormity of the fed balance sheet. There is still tons of money sloshing around the system. While interest rates are way way up, the Fed's balance sheet will never ever normalize. And if it does normalize, you will have bigger problems on your mind than your card collection. Some more thoughts:

-Despite the bear market we continue to see infrastructure being built up around the space. Seeing this happens as prices fall is very bullish IMO. Sure, lots of crappy companies will go BK but on net the space is improving structurally. In the coming 5-10 years we will see among other things:

1.) All the goofy muddling situations with so many graders finally sorted out.
2.) A drastic change in the market where the best of the best cards are only exchanged in private networks. I truly believe the next 3-5 years will see a drastic reduction of truly special cards being moved on places like eBay. Those days are going to die and the truly good stuff (important caveat below) will only get harder and harder to find.

-Fanatics. They are going to make a big big difference. Fanatics has one thing to throw behind this market which it seemingly lacks in almost all places and that is integrity. Lots of people whining about a monopoly need to chill. We are talking about a major company that wants to go public and is not just in this for a quick buck. Anywhere Fanatics feels like putting their thumb, they can put pressure on bad actors real quick (whether by stealing their market or by putting them out of business). That is Fanatics biggest card, no pun intended, bringing integrity to the market. They can afford to create a system, for example, that deters cracking and resubmitting because one, they have a long term view. And two, they have so many revenue streams as a giant company that they can afford to sacrifice the revenues with an eye on the long game. Much harder for a company, even like PSA, to do something like this. Additionally if they don't buy Panini, in the long run the death of Painins major brands will be the one thing that might be able to save prices in this era of obscene overprinting. I can't even wrap my head around the people who are like "Will Prizm cards tank if they don't continue on?" Are you kidding me? The best way to preserve the value of Panini cards if for them to never be produced again.

-The reality is there is some very special stuff out there but it's so much narrower than most people realize. So much narrower. There just aren't that many cards that matter. I think you have to go into this thinking there are max 1000 cards per player that are worth while... which means...

-Yes, speaking specifically of the iconic Jordan PSA 10, it has much further to fall and the PSA 10 premium will get it's head ripped off in the next 5-7 years. I mean who cares if you have the PSA 10 of that card or the Gretzky or any other mass printed card? The reality is you have the same card as all the people with a PSA 9. It's the same card. I was watching an interview with Nat the other day and he was speaking to rare 90s inserts and he said, "Condition just doesn't matter for these cards." He is right. Because they are so limited. Great cards, people just want to own them in any condition they can get their hands on. Which is why the spread between a PSA 6-8 (or even 9 on these cards just isn't there). The bump for a 10 is decent but not many multiples. If your card needs a PSA 10 to be considered awesome it's not a great card. It's meh.

-I don't see any meaningful path forward on most ultra modern cards for a long time. When everyone pumps so much money into the hot names, the 1st round picks, whatever, it prices them for perfection and even players that have great careers will see prices fall despite on field success. The spec money there is out of control. The only way to make money in ultra modern now is to buy a player that no one cares about and hope they are way better than projected. The big Sports Center names yield nothing. And if they do, it's not a multi-bagger. Maybe 50-70%. But the risk reward skew is terrible.

-On a related GOATs who are still playing like Lebron and Curry will absolutely continue to fall until 3-5 years into retirement. Why is this? Because there is still so much spec money in the hobby. These speculators are pushing up the prices of these cards betting on rings or MVPs or whatever. It's a gambling fix. Well, guess what happens when those guys aren't playing anymore? The spec money disappears and prices crater. Nothing to bet on anymore. Same thing that has been happening with Brady.

I have lots more thoughts but those are some.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by SoccerRCs

I am very bullish over a long horizon, 10+ years. That said, lots of problems in the short term and I expect ultra modern to continue to crater. The one hope I'd say that people have for prices to find a bottom is the sheer enormity of the fed balance sheet. There is still tons of money sloshing around the system. While interest rates are way way up, the Fed's balance sheet will never ever normalize. And if it does normalize, you will have bigger problems on your mind than your card collection. Some more thoughts:

-Despite the bear market we continue to see infrastructure being built up around the space. Seeing this happens as prices fall is very bullish IMO. Sure, lots of crappy companies will go BK but on net the space is improving structurally. In the coming 5-10 years we will see among other things:

1.) All the goofy muddling situations with so many graders finally sorted out.
2.) A drastic change in the market where the best of the best cards are only exchanged in private networks. I truly believe the next 3-5 years will see a drastic reduction of truly special cards being moved on places like eBay. Those days are going to die and the truly good stuff (important caveat below) will only get harder and harder to find.

-Fanatics. They are going to make a big big difference. Fanatics has one thing to throw behind this market which it seemingly lacks in almost all places and that is integrity. Lots of people whining about a monopoly need to chill. We are talking about a major company that wants to go public and is not just in this for a quick buck. Anywhere Fanatics feels like putting their thumb, they can put pressure on bad actors real quick (whether by stealing their market or by putting them out of business). That is Fanatics biggest card, no pun intended, bringing integrity to the market. They can afford to create a system, for example, that deters cracking and resubmitting because one, they have a long term view. And two, they have so many revenue streams as a giant company that they can afford to sacrifice the revenues with an eye on the long game. Much harder for a company, even like PSA, to do something like this. Additionally if they don't buy Panini, in the long run the death of Painins major brands will be the one thing that might be able to save prices in this era of obscene overprinting. I can't even wrap my head around the people who are like "Will Prizm cards tank if they don't continue on?" Are you kidding me? The best way to preserve the value of Panini cards if for them to never be produced again.

-The reality is there is some very special stuff out there but it's so much narrower than most people realize. So much narrower. There just aren't that many cards that matter. I think you have to go into this thinking there are max 1000 cards per player that are worth while... which means...

-Yes, speaking specifically of the iconic Jordan PSA 10, it has much further to fall and the PSA 10 premium will get it's head ripped off in the next 5-7 years. I mean who cares if you have the PSA 10 of that card or the Gretzky or any other mass printed card? The reality is you have the same card as all the people with a PSA 9. It's the same card. I was watching an interview with Nat the other day and he was speaking to rare 90s inserts and he said, "Condition just doesn't matter for these cards." He is right. Because they are so limited. Great cards, people just want to own them in any condition they can get their hands on. Which is why the spread between a PSA 6-8 (or even 9 on these cards just isn't there). The bump for a 10 is decent but not many multiples. If your card needs a PSA 10 to be considered awesome it's not a great card. It's meh.

-I don't see any meaningful path forward on most ultra modern cards for a long time. When everyone pumps so much money into the hot names, the 1st round picks, whatever, it prices them for perfection and even players that have great careers will see prices fall despite on field success. The spec money there is out of control. The only way to make money in ultra modern now is to buy a player that no one cares about and hope they are way better than projected. The big Sports Center names yield nothing. And if they do, it's not a multi-bagger. Maybe 50-70%. But the risk reward skew is terrible.

-On a related GOATs who are still playing like Lebron and Curry will absolutely continue to fall until 3-5 years into retirement. Why is this? Because there is still so much spec money in the hobby. These speculators are pushing up the prices of these cards betting on rings or MVPs or whatever. It's a gambling fix. Well, guess what happens when those guys aren't playing anymore? The spec money disappears and prices crater. Nothing to bet on anymore. Same thing that has been happening with Brady.

I have lots more thoughts but those are some.

I only read posts this long when they're weed-fueled

[discodanman45]

Items that are made to be collectible typically don't hold value. For any of these current cards that are handled with white gloves out of the pack, carefully placed into penny sleeves/card savers, and immediately slabbed by a grading company to keep any value we need a generation to put them into bike spokes. To bad this current generation is too lazy to ride a bike.

[elontusk1119]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Items that are made to be collectible typically don't hold value.

that's why ticket stubs are surging in popularity

[cms11]

"If your card needs a PSA 10 to be considered awesome it's not a great card. It's meh."

This is a great point.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by elontusk1119

that's why ticket stubs are surging in popularity

They’re not no matter how desperately you try to make it happen

[hermanotarjeta]

Cards are not very liquid assets and can be damaged and stolen as physical properties.

As interest rates start to turn around, stock prices will increase at a faster rate than cards as money continues to be pulled out of physical assets and back into stocks over then next decade.

I would never invest in cards as a long term asset.

Collect cards and be happy if you’ve made money when you check out.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by stalemonkey30

As an older Millennial, respectively, it is extremely insulting how you are characterizing 72 milion people based on your own obvious biases. I would have some other choice words for you, but I don't want to get this thread locked.

Have fun with your hobby message board and don’t take things so seriously here.

Revel in your millennialness and enjoy life.

[stalemonkey30]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Have fun with your hobby message board and don’t take things so seriously here.

Revel in your millennialness and enjoy life.

I get it, but after almost a decade of being crapped on as a generation for everything under the sun, I have a very visceral reaction to it at this point.

As for cards, I'm still holding my cash until prices come down on a few things. I've purchased 3 or 4 cards this year, and only because they would otherwise be hard to find and were reasonably priced. I am also purchasing things going in with the realization that they could decrease in price in the future.

[90skid]

Originally Posted by SoccerRCs

-Fanatics. They are going to make a big big difference. Fanatics has one thing to throw behind this market which it seemingly lacks in almost all places and that is integrity.

Says the company that produced multiple 1/1's and threw them into packs for buyers to discover on their own. Then proceeds to say sorry we goofed up and offers huge $$$$ buybacks. And then there's the tacofractors...

I want them to succeed here, truly I do - it's just too early to tell yet.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Cards are not very liquid assets and can be damaged and stolen as physical properties.

As interest rates start to turn around, stock prices will increase at a faster rate than cards as money continues to be pulled out of physical assets and back into stocks over then next decade.

I would never invest in cards as a long term asset.

Collect cards and be happy if you’ve made money when you check out.

I never really understood cards from a pure investment value outside of a few outliers (for example, a set/player that you might feel is undervalued severely and can increase in the short/long term as a result), specially Post-Covid

I always thought that the beauty in "investing" when it came to cards was to be able to look at them in a setting. It's more like collecting this asset that you can put on a stand or something, it's visually appealing and then you can flip for a profit.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by SoccerRCs

-Yes, speaking specifically of the iconic Jordan PSA 10, it has much further to fall and the PSA 10 premium will get it's head ripped off in the next 5-7 years. I mean who cares if you have the PSA 10 of that card or the Gretzky or any other mass printed card? The reality is you have the same card as all the people with a PSA 9. It's the same card.

Lots of people care. The mass produced card does not matter as much as the grade. It's been tough to tell the difference between a PSA-9 and PSA-10 for ~25 years. Why will that change, exactly?

PSA-10s are for winners. Winners aren't going away.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by stalemonkey30

I get it, but after almost a decade of being crapped on as a generation for everything under the sun, I have a very visceral reaction to it at this point.

As for cards, I'm still holding my cash until prices come down on a few things. I've purchased 3 or 4 cards this year, and only because they would otherwise be hard to find and were reasonably priced. I am also purchasing things going in with the realization that they could decrease in price in the future.

That’s the best attitude for the hobby and life.

Whether you are spending $1 or $500,000 on a single card purchase, as long as you are buying without the INTENTION of making money, you can never lose.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by elontusk1119

that's why ticket stubs are surging in popularity

They are surging because of investors, flippers, and influencers. Maybe some collectors, but that is not driving the popularity. The flipper types move item to item trying to make money on the next item. Tickets aren't even made anymore. It is a PDF that you bring up on your phone or print out.

[Rooftop]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Pass on cards as an investment until rates come down.

Wise man, right here

[Above the Rim]

United States Sports Trading Card Market Report 2022: Sector to Reach $62.06 Billion by 2027 at a CAGR of 28.76%

There are a lot of people spending a lot of money in sports cards. The fly by night COVID crowd has come and gone. The hobby is very healthy.

Honestly, over the course of the next chunk of years, I am not worried about big name vintage, especially in high grade. Nor am I worried about Pre-War big name HOFers.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Above the Rim

United States Sports Trading Card Market Report 2022: Sector to Reach $62.06 Billion by 2027 at a CAGR of 28.76%

There are a lot of people spending a lot of money in sports cards. The fly by night COVID crowd has come and gone. The hobby is very healthy.

Honestly, over the course of the next chunk of years, I am not worried about big name vintage, especially in high grade. Nor am I worried about Pre-War big name HOFers.

These paid "reports" are meaningless and should be taken with a mountain of salt

[Makakilo Cards]

I think the "correction" is over but the normal, cyclical volatility is never going away. Unless you're waiting for guys to retire first, you're not going time this one perfectly. What I really want to see is what happens to Panini stuff when they aren't in the game anymore. Plenty of stuff I've been shy to pull the trigger on just yet, but am still itching to.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Let's assume you hit the lottery and have $500K to invest. Which one would you pick now? Some of the choices based on their current price range ($400K-$500K)-

1. Ruth 1916 M101 (mid grade)
2. Mantle 1952 Topps (Nicely centered PSA 7)
3. Jordan 1997 UD GUJ Auto BGS 8
4. Lebron 2003 Exquisite RPA Gold/23 BGS 8.5
5. Brady 2000 Champ Ticket BGS 8.5/PSA 8
6. Stock market or Real estate
7. Other- mention your own pick

Mantle, then Ruth. Ignoring stock market/real estate for these purposes