📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈 - Page 3

pcptrade · 10-10-2023, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rifleman69

Mantle, then Ruth. Ignoring stock market/real estate for these purposes

Mantle 52T PSA 7 pop is 77 with 66 graded higher. What the recent correction has shown us is that there are not many high-end collectors/investors out there with a long-term horizon. The owner of the Mantle 52T PSA 8 that is currently up for sale at Goldin is selling it for a loss within two years. Ruth 1916 M101 total graded pop is ~ 70 vs ~2500 for Mantle 52T and the same Ruth 1916 M101 has not been up for sale multiple times in the past 6 years if I am not wrong. Ignoring stocks/real estate, I would prefer Ruth 1916 M101 over the Mantle 1952 Topps as an investment and that is just my personal preference.

gomiamigo · 10-10-2023, 05:32 PM

No, it's not over.

Anyone choosing cards over stocks for the next 10 years should have their head examined and that's before the huge tax differences.

Maybe Fanatics will be a good long-term actor. Maybe.

ksemmel · 10-10-2023, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Millennials want jobs but don't want to work, they fully expect their college loans and probably their home loans if they have one to be fully paid off by the government. They have all spent their money on "experiences" and have very little money left to purchase pieces of cardboard of their idol. Many are fiscally incompetent, as Khal has intelligently referred to, and thus current Bron Bag holders will have no one else to flip their cards to down the line except to each other. Some millennials will be holding some heavy, heavy bags of a forgotten great player of the 2010's.

Millennials will have no one to flip their cards to except for each other. It's also challenging when most millennials have exhausted their parent's money. Generation Z kids born in the 2000's could care less about Old Man Lebald and his flopping antics. They will only remember him as that bad actor in that space jam remake.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Some people just like to bully and harass others here.

Bullying is a form of hatred built on Insecurity. It's the unhappy and insecure people who show hatred, bully and try to bring others down.

Interesting...

GOATcards · 10-10-2023, 06:18 PM

There are a certain very select few cards that I'd expect to outpace stocks/real estate, they are cards of GOATs or top-tier legends with great rarity independent of grading pop reports.

The '14 Baltimore News Ruth is like the holy grail. Stocks/real estate might be more liquid but this one would also be liquid at the right price which is probably going to be considerably more than whatever you paid for it.

It's even more of a holy grail than the T206 Wagner, of which there are dozens.

Why would someone with an interest in sports collecting, with any interest in baseball collecting, pick anything else over a Baltimore Ruth?

I wouldn't even care as much about a PSA 10 Russell RC, you could get a fine-looking PSA 8 of same and not have to wonder whether the next one would come around for years. You go for the beat-up Baltimore Ruth, easy.

I can't think of anything else that comes close. pcptrade is asking about cards that are relatively obtainable and at under $1M.

Makes me wonder how much of a value prospect that Oscar Charleston card from ca. 1921 might be. (There's a couple it turns out, PSA pop of 1 and 5 respectively. I prefer the look of the '24 over the '23.

)

hermanotarjeta · 10-10-2023, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ksemmel

Interesting...

Haha, I don’t ever target specific BO members - they seem to call themselves out in response to my posts.

Nice try taking quotes out of context as I’m trying to address a certain group of stalkers.

Doesn’t the last paragraph sound familiar? I have to give credit where credit is due - it is inspirational!

KhalDrogo · 10-11-2023, 05:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Mantle 52T PSA 7 pop is 77 with 66 graded higher. What the recent correction has shown us is that there are not many high-end collectors/investors out there with a long-term horizon. The owner of the Mantle 52T PSA 8 that is currently up for sale at Goldin is selling it for a loss within two years. Ruth 1916 M101 total graded pop is ~ 70 vs ~2500 for Mantle 52T and the same Ruth 1916 M101 has not been up for sale multiple times in the past 6 years if I am not wrong. Ignoring stocks/real estate, I would prefer Ruth 1916 M101 over the Mantle 1952 Topps as an investment and that is just my personal preference.

The real comparison is the Ruth vs a well-centered, high eye appeal 52 Mantle. How many of those exist? 100? A few dozen? Looking at the sales this year, I see two copies that would fit that description. The low grade copies cycle through the hobby the same way ultra modern junk does. But the real gems get held close.

pcptrade · 10-11-2023, 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The real comparison is the Ruth vs a well-centered, high eye appeal 52 Mantle. How many of those exist? 100? A few dozen? Looking at the sales this year, I see two copies that would fit that description. The low grade copies cycle through the hobby the same way ultra modern junk does. But the real gems get held close.

I think the 52T in PSA 7 to 9 grades have a higher percentage of nicely centered copies compared to the mid and lower grades. The way I look at Mantle 52T is that one is available for sale (ebay/PWCC/Goldin/Heritage/REA/Lelands etc.) all the time unlike a Ruth 1916 M101. I would consider a Mantle 52T as a possible good investment in grades PSA 8 to 10 but those are in the seven to eight figure range. I would prefer a Ruth 1916 M101 over a Mantle PSA 7/7.5 as an investment in the 500K range based on the rarity.

pingbling23 · 10-11-2023, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ksemmel

Interesting...

Got ‘em.

mizzoujohn · 10-11-2023, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Items that are made to be collectible typically don't hold value. For any of these current cards that are handled with white gloves out of the pack, carefully placed into penny sleeves/card savers, and immediately slabbed by a grading company to keep any value we need a generation to put them into bike spokes. To bad this current generation is too lazy to ride a bike.

Correct. Forced collectibles are never highly sought after.

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peterose4hof · 10-11-2023, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Mantle 52T PSA 7 pop is 77 with 66 graded higher. What the recent correction has shown us is that there are not many high-end collectors/investors out there with a long-term horizon. The owner of the Mantle 52T PSA 8 that is currently up for sale at Goldin is selling it for a loss within two years. Ruth 1916 M101 total graded pop is ~ 70 vs ~2500 for Mantle 52T and the same Ruth 1916 M101 has not been up for sale multiple times in the past 6 years if I am not wrong. Ignoring stocks/real estate, I would prefer Ruth 1916 M101 over the Mantle 1952 Topps as an investment and that is just my personal preference.

This is a very irresponsible assumption.

The auction has 17 freaking days left.
And people like to bid at the end.

KhalDrogo · 10-11-2023, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

This is a very irresponsible assumption.

The auction has 17 freaking days left.
And people like to bid at the end.

You think it can eclipse the $2.03M it sold for in 2021?

pcptrade · 10-11-2023, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

This is a very irresponsible assumption.

The auction has 17 freaking days left.
And people like to bid at the end.

The last two PSA 8 sales this year were around 1 million. This one has a better eye appeal but I still highly doubt this one will fetch more than 1.25 million.

discodanman45 · 10-11-2023, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcptrade

The last two PSA 8 sales this year were around 1 million. This one has a better eye appeal but I still highly doubt this one will fetch more than 1.25 million.

Where where the last two sales? Can't find any auctions for a PSA 8.

Goldin creates stupid hype and it will fetch way more than 1.25 million with their buyer's premium, which is the reported price. Right now it is at $866,200 and I think it will end in the $1.5 to $1.75 million range. Throw in some shenanigans or a desperate buyer and we could see $2 million plus. Lots of people with way too much money out there. This type of grade doesn't pop up often on a big auction site and we will see someone pay way too much for this card.

pcptrade · 10-11-2023, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Where where the last two sales? Can't find any auctions for a PSA 8.

Goldin creates stupid hype and it will fetch way more than 1.25 million with their buyer's premium, which is the reported price. Right now it is at $866,200 and I think it will end in the $1.5 to $1.75 million range. Throw in some shenanigans or a desperate buyer and we could see $2 million plus. Lots of people with way too much money out there. This type of grade doesn't pop up often on a big auction site and we will see someone pay way too much for this card.

Goldin and Heritage-

https://goldin.co/item/1952-topps-31...a-nm-mt-8tyeuz

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball-c...50061-02252023

peterose4hof · 10-11-2023, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You think it can eclipse the $2.03M it sold for in 2021?

Doubtful, 2021 was so jacked up compared to now.

Still irresponsible to assume. Wait 'til the auction is finished.

pcptrade · 10-11-2023, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

Doubtful, 2021 was so jacked up compared to now.

Still irresponsible to assume. Wait 'til the auction is finished.

Anything less than $2.03 million is still a loss for the owner and that was my point. My guess on the sale price is $1 to 1.25 million. It is very unlikely to fetch more than $1.5 million. We will revisit this in a few weeks

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Mantle 52T PSA 7 pop is 77 with 66 graded higher. What the recent correction has shown us is that there are not many high-end collectors/investors out there with a long-term horizon. The owner of the Mantle 52T PSA 8 that is currently up for sale at Goldin is selling it for a loss within two years. Ruth 1916 M101 total graded pop is ~ 70 vs ~2500 for Mantle 52T and the same Ruth 1916 M101 has not been up for sale multiple times in the past 6 years if I am not wrong. Ignoring stocks/real estate, I would prefer Ruth 1916 M101 over the Mantle 1952 Topps as an investment and that is just my personal preference.

boxbuster7 · 10-11-2023, 12:59 PM

plus he isn't even getting the 22% buyer premium...unless he negotiated for it

KhalDrogo · 10-11-2023, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

Doubtful, 2021 was so jacked up compared to now.

Still irresponsible to assume. Wait 'til the auction is finished.

God forbid someone project a card to sell at a loss! How dare he!

peterose4hof · 10-11-2023, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Anything less than $2.03 million is still a loss for the owner and that was my point. My guess on the sale price is $1 to 1.25 million. It is very unlikely to fetch more than $1.5 million. We will revisit this in a few weeks

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

God forbid someone project a card to sell at a loss! How dare he!

You're right. I overreacted on this. My bad.

Quote:

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

plus he isn't even getting the 22% buyer premium...unless he negotiated for it

On big money cards like this, it's very common for the seller to negotiate a % of the BP.

GOATcards · 10-11-2023, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The real comparison is the Ruth vs a well-centered, high eye appeal 52 Mantle. How many of those exist? 100? A few dozen? Looking at the sales this year, I see two copies that would fit that description. The low grade copies cycle through the hobby the same way ultra modern junk does. But the real gems get held close.

The Ruth RC is in enough of a distinct category as to not be comparable to a card with thousands of examples out there. The closer comp there is to a T206 Wagner. I think. Then the Baltimore Ruth is maybe all in a class of its own, depending on whether Oscar C is GOAT status. I'd leave that to researchers like Bill James who in the '01 Historical Abstract named these players as the top 3 all-time followed by Mays. (Still, his own timeline adjustment has the top of the ranking filled with old-timers. I have a hunch that the accolades James describes for Oscar would just as much apply to Willie under similar circumstances.)

Partly setting the M101 Ruth apart from the other two is that there are later Ruth issues which dilute the rarity of Ruth cards, namely the thousands of Goudeys

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stanmarsh · 10-11-2023, 02:56 PM

Lebron could be the next oj when he retires, brady could be the next madoff and Curry could be the next bonds. It would destroy their values and people would lose thousands. Stick with real estate or stock market.

boxbuster7 · 10-11-2023, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stanmarsh

Lebron could be the next oj when he retires, brady could be the next madoff and Curry could be the next bonds. It would destroy their values and people would lose thousands. Stick with real estate or stock market.

From a guy whose signature says buy shiba inu coins

Zedlaw · 10-11-2023, 03:42 PM

A late career Bonds explosion from Curry would be something. Are we talking 45pts/gm at 65/55/99 shooting per cents from some AI vision muscle twitch implant. Or does he simply grow a few inches and win DPOTY. Lance Armstrong makes more sense for Curry, the question then becomes how much do we care that a 40year old Curry can still effortlessly scamper around for 40min/gm. At 4 rings I don't think anyone cares, if he gets to/surpasses Kobe and Jordan than the arguments start.

jcmel323 · 10-11-2023, 04:33 PM

Cards as investment is destroyed.
Doesnt make sense when CDs and banks are offering 5%+
Even when rates get back to normal , I don't see cards as investments. Everyone will be concentrated trying to figure out when to buy a house.

Maybe a gradual increase in key cards from late 2025+

Uncbuddha · 10-11-2023, 08:38 PM

Star Jordan’s have been performing very well. Not many of the 101s out there. All it takes is one of the 4 BGS 9.5s to sell for really big money or a PSA 10 to pop up (don’t think there will ever be a PSA 10, unlike the 52T Mantle) for that card to explode. Should be on the same level as the 52 Mantle. The only PSA 9 to sell went for 300k. I don’t think the 9.5s have been up for sale in a longs time. I’ve always heard that none of the BGS 9.5s would cross to a PSA 10. All of the misconceptions about Star are finally clearing up as well now that information is more readily available for those that take the time to read. I think the future is bright for the JordAn 101.

10-10-2023, 05:32 PM	#52
gomiamigo Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: in your head Posts: 10,977 esmoney gomiamigo	No, it's not over. Anyone choosing cards over stocks for the next 10 years should have their head examined and that's before the huge tax differences. Maybe Fanatics will be a good long-term actor. Maybe. __________________ IG: KevinDurant35Cards

10-11-2023, 12:59 PM	#67
boxbuster7 Member Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 13,434 boxbuster777	plus he isn't even getting the 22% buyer premium...unless he negotiated for it __________________ Psa 9 > psa 10

10-11-2023, 02:56 PM	#71
stanmarsh Member Join Date: Apr 2019 Location: mianus Mass Posts: 843	Lebron could be the next oj when he retires, brady could be the next madoff and Curry could be the next bonds. It would destroy their values and people would lose thousands. Stick with real estate or stock market. __________________ Release the Epstein files

10-10-2023, 06:18 PM	#54
GOATcards Member Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 6,492	There are a certain very select few cards that I'd expect to outpace stocks/real estate, they are cards of GOATs or top-tier legends with great rarity independent of grading pop reports. The '14 Baltimore News Ruth is like the holy grail. Stocks/real estate might be more liquid but this one would also be liquid at the right price which is probably going to be considerably more than whatever you paid for it. It's even more of a holy grail than the T206 Wagner, of which there are dozens. Why would someone with an interest in sports collecting, with any interest in baseball collecting, pick anything else over a Baltimore Ruth? I wouldn't even care as much about a PSA 10 Russell RC, you could get a fine-looking PSA 8 of same and not have to wonder whether the next one would come around for years. You go for the beat-up Baltimore Ruth, easy. I can't think of anything else that comes close. pcptrade is asking about cards that are relatively obtainable and at under $1M. Makes me wonder how much of a value prospect that Oscar Charleston card from ca. 1921 might be. (There's a couple it turns out, PSA pop of 1 and 5 respectively. I prefer the look of the '24 over the '23. )

10-11-2023, 03:42 PM	#73
Zedlaw Member Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 1,385	A late career Bonds explosion from Curry would be something. Are we talking 45pts/gm at 65/55/99 shooting per cents from some AI vision muscle twitch implant. Or does he simply grow a few inches and win DPOTY. Lance Armstrong makes more sense for Curry, the question then becomes how much do we care that a 40year old Curry can still effortlessly scamper around for 40min/gm. At 4 rings I don't think anyone cares, if he gets to/surpasses Kobe and Jordan than the arguments start.

10-11-2023, 04:33 PM	#74
jcmel323 Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Puerto Rico Posts: 2,950	Cards as investment is destroyed. Doesnt make sense when CDs and banks are offering 5%+ Even when rates get back to normal , I don't see cards as investments. Everyone will be concentrated trying to figure out when to buy a house. Maybe a gradual increase in key cards from late 2025+

10-11-2023, 08:38 PM	#75
Uncbuddha Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: Wake Forest, NC Posts: 215	Star Jordan’s have been performing very well. Not many of the 101s out there. All it takes is one of the 4 BGS 9.5s to sell for really big money or a PSA 10 to pop up (don’t think there will ever be a PSA 10, unlike the 52T Mantle) for that card to explode. Should be on the same level as the 52 Mantle. The only PSA 9 to sell went for 300k. I don’t think the 9.5s have been up for sale in a longs time. I’ve always heard that none of the BGS 9.5s would cross to a PSA 10. All of the misconceptions about Star are finally clearing up as well now that information is more readily available for those that take the time to read. I think the future is bright for the JordAn 101.