2022 Marvel Fleer Ultra Avengers (Upper Deck, 2022)

[imwonderboy]

Originally Posted by jjas311

76 cases today. A little over a case a day. This is about the slowest burn I have seen on a Marvel product under 99 cases. Makes me think most of this product is being opened by the pack...not so much the box or case.

The time of the year may have something to do with that. With all the recent releases lots of us are tapped out....

[imwonderboy]

48 cases left on Epack.

[PurplesaurusRex]

Originally Posted by imwonderboy

48 cases left on Epack.

These might sell out before Jan. 1st. I was thinking after the new year!

[imwonderboy]

Originally Posted by PurplesaurusRex

These might sell out before Jan. 1st. I was thinking after the new year!

My guess is after the new year. I am a bit surprised these continue to sell so well on Epack when you can buy physical hobby boxes for $100 cheaper right now.

[Sushiyoshi]

42 cases

[imwonderboy]

35 left - maybe they will be sold out before the new year

[trask7]

Three packs


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[imwonderboy]

Originally Posted by trask7

Three packs


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Nice Hit!!!

[Marvel Card]

I’m noticing people are pulling higher rates of high value cards from the set like
Sapphires, jambalayas, UP variants, even some emeralds. Also alphas on other inserts. Is it because inventory is winding down and is this the usual? I notice this because I track marketplace numbers and I’m thinking UD may have concentrates the better inserts last?

[PurplesaurusRex]

Originally Posted by Marvel Card

I’m noticing people are pulling higher rates of high value cards from the set like
Sapphires, jambalayas, UP variants, even some emeralds. Also alphas on other inserts. Is it because inventory is winding down and is this the usual? I notice this because I track marketplace numbers and I’m thinking UD may have concentrates the better inserts last?

A lot of people have speculated that UD stacks hits towards the beginning and ending of their Epack inventory.

[imwonderboy]

Originally Posted by Marvel Card

I’m noticing people are pulling higher rates of high value cards from the set like
Sapphires, jambalayas, UP variants, even some emeralds. Also alphas on other inserts. Is it because inventory is winding down and is this the usual? I notice this because I track marketplace numbers and I’m thinking UD may have concentrates the better inserts last?

I've wondered the same thing. Seeing lots of hits over the past few weeks as the supply winds down. Could be coincidence but who knows with Epack.

[newhobbygeek]

Originally Posted by Marvel Card

I’m noticing people are pulling higher rates of high value cards from the set like
Sapphires, jambalayas, UP variants, even some emeralds. Also alphas on other inserts. Is it because inventory is winding down and is this the usual? I notice this because I track marketplace numbers and I’m thinking UD may have concentrates the better inserts last?

I think start and end of product there is usually more eyes and higher volume of sales in short period. I believe this leads to an illusion of stacked front/end product hits.

Collectors unlocking/locking cards can affect marketplace numbers.

[jjas311]

People always think there is some sort of trick to Epack, but there isn't. It seems like there are more hits because FOMO is setting in and people are posting more hits. Products temporarily heat up when they are about to sell out. It's a good time to sell when epack inventory runs low, we'll see a slight uptick on COMC sales too, because people are talking about the product.

Also, more people start buying closer to sell out because they want a little of that inventory as trade bait for when it does sell out. Base cards will even be more valuable for foiling. This means people are buying the product who arent collecting it...which means there is less locking and/or sending stuff home to PCs. It's left out for trading.

It's all an illusion - trust me - you can see anything you want to see while monitoring epack inventory and the marketplace. Gambling has that effect on people. It's no different than the people who think a slot machine in a casino is due because it hasn't hit in a while or any other pattern they want to see.

EDIT: I am speaking from firsthand experience as one of the people who has bought boxes of product due to FOMO because everyone in the forum is claiming it is "hot right now" only to lose 95% of what I spent. It's Gambler's Fallacy...nothing else.

[jjas311]

Originally Posted by newhobbygeek

I think start and end of product there is usually more eyes and higher volume of sales in short period. I believe this leads to an illusion of stacked front/end product hits.

Collectors unlocking/locking cards can affect marketplace numbers.

Sorry, I missed this. Spot on.

[Marvel Card]

Originally Posted by jjas311

People always think there is some sort of trick to Epack, but there isn't. It seems like there are more hits because FOMO is setting in and people are posting more hits. Products temporarily heat up when they are about to sell out. It's a good time to sell when epack inventory runs low, we'll see a slight uptick on COMC sales too, because people are talking about the product.

Also, more people start buying closer to sell out because they want a little of that inventory as trade bait for when it does sell out. Base cards will even be more valuable for foiling. This means people are buying the product who arent collecting it...which means there is less locking and/or sending stuff home to PCs. It's left out for trading.

It's all an illusion - trust me - you can see anything you want to see while monitoring epack inventory and the marketplace. Gambling has that effect on people. It's no different than the people who think a slot machine in a casino is due because it hasn't hit in a while or any other pattern they want to see.

EDIT: I am speaking from firsthand experience as one of the people who has bought boxes of product due to FOMO because everyone in the forum is claiming it is "hot right now" only to lose 95% of what I spent. It's Gambler's Fallacy...nothing else.

People could be fooling around with locking what they have, and no offense but this is not an illusion at all.

Here are the numbers of what’s been unlocked in the marketplace:


Today 12/30/23

Sapphire: 155
Emerald: 41
Jambalaya: 519
UP variants: 238
3 x 3: 4885


11/30/23

Sapphire: 146
Emerald: 38
Jambalaya: 498
UP variants: 227
3 x 3: 4642


10/30/23

Sapphire: 142
Emerald: 37
Jambalaya: 482
UP variants: 224
3 x 3: 4510

The numbers don’t lie, I take a snapshot of the 3x3s as that’s a pretty good baseline of product sold since those are more unlikely to be locked from the marketplace. The concentration of all the 4 other inserts have appeared to be opened at better rates than the prior month before. I have data going back every single month since its release on epack, and there is a clear higher concentration of hits as the inventory is winding down.

[glorbgorb]

And how many cases were available on those same dates? You're talking an increase of 9 whole Sapphires versus 4 the month before. Depending on numbers of cases and consumption (that FOMO once it hits 99 cases) nothing looks odd to me.

[DynaEtch]

That is true, it's entirely possible that it's just more product has been opened this month- not sure if anyone has that data. It would be logical as there is an uptick in buying in the end, with a case countdown given in this thread etc.

Occams razor for me is UD is not tinkering with the proportion of hits at different times in the epack run. I can be convinced otherwise with a strong statistical analysis though. But it does remind me a bit of the ol casino myths of casinos tinkering with slot machines so they hit better at certain times than others. There really isnt a major reason for the casino to do that- they just get their steady house edge, whatever it is, 10%, as the spins go on. Likewise, it's hard to see a major reason UD would be tinkering with this- they get their money either way as the packs sell out.

[Marvel Card]

Originally Posted by glorbgorb

And how many cases were available on those same dates? You're talking an increase of 9 whole Sapphires versus 4 the month before. Depending on numbers of cases and consumption (that FOMO once it hits 99 cases) nothing looks odd to me.

You’re missing the point. The 3x3 have pack odds. Basic mathematic principal is to take the odds of the rarer inserts in relation to the pack odds of inserts you know. 9 “whole” sapphires is 6.2% of the entire stock, vs 5% of the 3x3s. I have the numbers of inserts on the 30th of every month. The numbered opened vs stock was within 0.2% difference between these inserts the past preceding 4 months. The trend suggests a greater incidence of premium inserts being opened on epack. I’m not here to convince you, I’m here to show actual numbers instead of anecdotal dismissals and present this for the greater audience. Considering there is some sort of algorithm and for anyone who works in the field of statistics (like myself) that’s abnormal variance support by the preceding 6 months of data as well. The last month is just an example of the variance which, again, is pretty significant when you’re talking about the volume of packs opened.

[jjas311]

Originally Posted by Marvel Card

You’re missing the point. The 3x3 have pack odds. Basic mathematic principal is to take the odds of the rarer inserts in relation to the pack odds of inserts you know. 9 “whole” sapphires is 6.2% of the entire stock, vs 5% of the 3x3s. I have the numbers of inserts on the 30th of every month. The numbered opened vs stock was within 0.2% difference between these inserts the past preceding 4 months. The trend suggests a greater incidence of premium inserts being opened on epack. I’m not here to convince you, I’m here to show actual numbers instead of anecdotal dismissals and present this for the greater audience. Considering there is some sort of algorithm and for anyone who works in the field of statistics (like myself) that’s abnormal variance support by the preceding 6 months of data as well. The last month is just an example of the variance which, again, is pretty significant when you’re talking about the volume of packs opened.

We understand the concept, the issue is that there are WAY too many unknowable variables for any of your mathematical theories to be true within a margin of error of like 50%. There’s no science to your numbers with so many epack variables.

Regarding UD doing anything to fix hit rates - as discussed before, there are arguments against the idea that UD would want products to sell out fast. Less product brings in less customers.

It’s all a bunch of what-if.

[glorbgorb]

So there's a difference of 132 from 10/30 to 11/30; and 243 from 11/30 to 12/30.

The UP differences were 3 and 11 respectively.

Jambalaya were 16 and 21.

Emerald were 1 and 3.

Sapphire were 4 and 9.

Nothing consistent with those ratios. And these are all marketplace numbers. The longer a set sits on ePack, the less likely a given user will keep anything "high-end" on ePack. Achievements are in the rear view
mirror and they are more likely to send it to comc to recoup costs.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by Marvel Card

You’re missing the point. The 3x3 have pack odds. Basic mathematic principal is to take the odds of the rarer inserts in relation to the pack odds of inserts you know. 9 “whole” sapphires is 6.2% of the entire stock, vs 5% of the 3x3s. I have the numbers of inserts on the 30th of every month. The numbered opened vs stock was within 0.2% difference between these inserts the past preceding 4 months. The trend suggests a greater incidence of premium inserts being opened on epack. I’m not here to convince you, I’m here to show actual numbers instead of anecdotal dismissals and present this for the greater audience. Considering there is some sort of algorithm and for anyone who works in the field of statistics (like myself) that’s abnormal variance support by the preceding 6 months of data as well. The last month is just an example of the variance which, again, is pretty significant when you’re talking about the volume of packs opened.

I think I see what you're trying to do now. You're trying to compare the % increases of those top inserts vs the % increase of the 3x3's I think? (correct me if Im wrong)

So nov -> dec we have a 5.23% increase in 3x3s
Percent increases: Sapphire- 6.2%, Emerald- 7.9%, Jamba- 4.2%, UP Variant-4.8%.

Arent the Jambalaya and UP Variants actually scaling at less than the increase in 3x3s? Also, random chance has to be considered. If Sapphire was just 1 less at 154 (that's one being pulled or not, transferred or not, locked or not), then it's only 5.5%, very close to the 3x3 percent increase. If just 2 sapphires less at 153 sapphires, then it's 4.8%, actually lower than the 3x3 rate. Similarly if just 1 emerald green less, it would be 5.3%, which is about the 3x3 percent increase and no one bats an eye. That's what happens with just 41 total, a difference of 1 is a sizeable difference in percent. I guess what Im saying is not sure Im staking a pretty extravagant claim of UD tinkering with the epack odds based on 1 or 2 extra or less being pulled. This isnt even taking into consideration the other variables of epack. It might help to see all the months' data for a more complete picture.....but I dont think this alone is enough to make conclusions.

[jjas311]

More important than anything - if Marvel Card is really that confident in their data, wouldn’t they be gobbling up the remaining couple dozen cases? After all, they are already what…$75k invested in this product?

Im bothered by this kind of epack rumor mongering because it’s no different than walking into a casino and showing people numbers that “prove” they have better odds of winning right now even though the math is seriously flawed.

It’s not cool.

If you want to count cards to win it big yourself, go for it. But don’t act like you are coming in here trying to help us out with magic math.

[One more set]

That product is kinda boring anyways.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by One more set

That product is kinda boring anyways.

I dont like the over-designed base cards, and being Avengers I just cant get that much into this set. The biggest draws in marvel cards seem to be from the Spider-man and X-men mini-universes.

That being said, I'd still put it above both Spiderman and X-men metal for one reason, and one reason only- that it has original commissioned art (some at least). Both those metal sets I have no interest in, since everything is just rehashed art. I know Im at major odds with the hobby on this, since both of those Metal sets seemed to be such huge hits and super fast sell outs (granted at a time when marvel cards were peaking more). Clearly the PMGs were a major reason. But for me personally....such a large step down from the original 1995 Marvel Metal set by Fleer to those newer Metals by UD.

This FUA set....Im ehh. I have a hard time believing the resale value is really there single-wise.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by jjas311

If you want to count cards to win it big yourself, go for it. But don’t act like you are coming in here trying to help us out with magic math.

There are a couple members that number crunch for a living or just do it for fun. I'm pretty sure a few members here compete to solve the annual Ginter puzzle contest Topps does. I know someone here won it a couple times. I guess what I'm saying is they are doing it for them, not you, I or anyone else.