The next marvel card boom?

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by glorbgorb

Is this also evidence that the sports pumpers have moved on from non-sports? I feel like there is a certain price point where, if it drops below, sports people are no longer interested. Get above that line and it piques their interest again. Surely it needs to get to a certain per-box price for breakers to be interested.

I think by its nature, sports cards will always have a leg up on nonsports in that each year there is always a new “can’t miss” football/basketball/baseball rookie that will provide a pretty nice multiple to justify higher box prices.

In nonsports, we lack the rookie so the hype will always be the same big name characters. Big name celebrity autos do well and certain sketch artist have premiums but there really isn’t a “rookie” equivalent in nonsports so I’m not sure the sports breakers will return to nonsports if easy money that was made during COvId is no longer there. Nonsports breaking is way more of a grind and you kind of have to know some of the nuances if you are trying to flip.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by glorbgorb

Is this also evidence that the sports pumpers have moved on from non-sports? I feel like there is a certain price point where, if it drops below, sports people are no longer interested. Get above that line and it piques their interest again. Surely it needs to get to a certain per-box price for breakers to be interested.

Look at Masterpieces 2022 though, basically $700-900 a box. That’s gotta be enough for them to get in on. I think it was the PMGs and grading (mainly ‘90 MU) that brought most of the sports people in around the peak. Those two things are very much part of sports. It’s true that seeing $20k+ PMGs must have attracted many of that crowd. This may be a generalization, but $-focused, investing, and flipping has always been more on the sports side than nonsports traditionally. Those high $ signs no doubt convinced many to get involved, probably barely knowing about many of the characters, just that they were flashy PMGs worth money.

Marvel market has leveled off as much of that crowd moved on, but enough stayed that it’s no question a larger market than 5 years ago. Prices are still elevated, particularly wax.

[fabiani12333]

I'm definitely not bullish on the future of the Marvel card market. I think it was targeted by speculators and market manipulators in early-to-mid 2021 after the sports card market had peaked.

I remember what it was like prior to 2020. Marvel PMGs were definitely not in high demand or highly valued. Autograph cards of select MCU actors were popular, like Tom Holland and Chris Evans. It seemed like I was one of the few buyers of graded 90s Marvel cards on eBay.

Suddenly, graded Marvel cards exploded in mid 2020, and then Marvel PMGs exploded in early 2021. People, including influencers, were trying to pump the market up and turn Marvel cards into alternative investments. How many people are still left that are long-term collectors? I have no idea. It does seem like there are more dedicated collectors than before, though. Probably not many, but enough to keep prices of key cards from going back to what they were.

As for what the market will be like in 15-20 years, I think trading cards will continue to lose cultural relevance. They had a renaissance during the pandemic, but it was temporary. Most of the people who got into the trading card hobby in 2020 and 2021 were only interested in making easy money -- not to be collectors. Trading cards are a luxury item and you really have to have a passion for them to be a collector.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

I think by its nature, sports cards will always have a leg up on nonsports in that each year there is always a new “can’t miss” football/basketball/baseball rookie that will provide a pretty nice multiple to justify higher box prices.

In nonsports, we lack the rookie so the hype will always be the same big name characters. Big name celebrity autos do well and certain sketch artist have premiums but there really isn’t a “rookie” equivalent in nonsports so I’m not sure the sports breakers will return to nonsports if easy money that was made during COvId is no longer there. Nonsports breaking is way more of a grind and you kind of have to know some of the nuances if you are trying to flip.

I think baseball cards, in particular, benefit from having a strong, long-term association with baseball. It's a tradition. Basketball and football cards, not so much.

The hype from new rookie cards is very fleeting. The production of rookie cards has dramatically increased in recent year, causing a glut in the market. It's only a matter of time before the market crashes like it did in the 90s.

The one advantage Marvel cards have is the original artwork. It's similar with TCG cards like Magic the Gathering. Good original artwork can generate interest and demand. That's a big reason why 2016 Marvel Masterpieces was a big hit.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I'm definitely not bullish on the future of the Marvel card market. I think it was targeted by speculators and market manipulators in early-to-mid 2021 after the sports card market had peaked.

I remember what it was like prior to 2020. Marvel PMGs were definitely not in high demand or highly valued. Autograph cards of select MCU actors were popular, like Tom Holland and Chris Evans. It seemed like I was one of the few buyers of graded 90s Marvel cards on eBay.

Suddenly, graded Marvel cards exploded in mid 2020, and then Marvel PMGs exploded in early 2021. People, including influencers, were trying to pump the market up and turn Marvel cards into alternative investments. How many people are still left that are long-term collectors? I have no idea. It does seem like there are more dedicated collectors than before, though. Probably not many, but enough to keep prices of key cards from going back to what they were.

As for what the market will be like in 15-20 years, I think trading cards will continue to lose cultural relevance. They had a renaissance during the pandemic, but it was temporary. Most of the people who got into the trading card hobby in 2020 and 2021 were only interested in making easy money -- not to be collectors. Trading cards are a luxury item and you really have to have a passion for them to be a collector.

This is a fair analysis. I'll take a mixed stance....not bullish, but not bearish either. The hobby actually has grown some in the last few years...I thought there was a pretty big hoopla that led up to MM22's release, the content channels now, FB groups etc. Still magnitudes smaller than anything like the sports cards or gaming cards like Pokemon, but when you compare Marvel to almost any other nonsports brand, it's way up there. Ebay listings of marvel cards probably get the most attention of any brand in nonsports, up there with Star Wars. And cant underestimate nostalgia for the 90s sets. Marvel cards are usually the only nonsports cards to make it on COMC's homepage banners, advertising auctions or grading etc.

2021 was a weird year, which I also doubt we'll ever be seeing again. It started around the time of the Gamestop short squeeze in late Jan 2021. That seemed to trigger the crazy period across all cards for whatever reason. Rapidly, 90 Marvel Universe sealed boxes were doubling in price every week until they got to like $3-5k in a month, from perhaps $100-200. Graded PSA 10 90 Marvel Universe junk base cards were selling for $1800-2500. This set in place the rush to grading that overloaded PSA. At some point...it might have been back in Jan, that influencer (Gary Vee?) simply mentioned Marvel cards, and it largely affected speculators coming into the hobby. In Sept, 2021, a second resurgence of Marvel card craziness happened, with PMGs suddenly selling in the tens of thousands, including a Thanos 2013 green for 25k, and Venom blue for 18k. This triggered a crazy rush on the PMGs, and what seems like total market manipulation, where presumably a small amount of deep pocket buyers (presumably from high end sports) that were playing almost a game with these, and sale prices in the $30-75k range, in some cases even for blues and reds. It's as if PMGs were picked to just be tokens in a game. It got crazy, and unsustainable....and the subsequent crash by spring months of 2022.

And here we are now. Whatever happened in those crazy years, did have a lasting impact. Sealed 90s marvel wax is in the hundreds. Key cards like 2013 Retro green PMGs continue to sell in the thousands, maybe $3000-12k for many characters. A collapse from peak, but also well above pre-craziness prices.

It'll be interesting to see where things go. One thing I do not like is super expensive/exclusive nature of Masterpieces, I think it's a problem when most of the opening of that product is done among a small circle of influencers. Another is the glut of sets every year and over-focused on parallels, instead of new, creative sets. I'm mixed on the quality of product UD is putting out in general.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

One thing I do not like is super expensive/exclusive nature of Masterpieces, I think it's a problem when most of the opening of that product is done among a small circle of influencers. Another is the glut of sets every year and over-focused on parallels, instead of new, creative sets. I'm mixed on the quality of product UD is putting out in general.

Yes -- the exclusivity of the Marvel Masterpieces brand is hurting the ability to grow the Marvel card collector base. The focus on parallels is clearly an attempt to appeal to sports card breakers and investors.

[glorbgorb]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I remember what it was like prior to 2020. Marvel PMGs were definitely not in high demand or highly valued.

Sigh... yeah, there was a FUSM Purple /5 PMG I needed for my Rhino collection that sat forever on COMC for like $80. No one but me is collecting Rhino, so I never grabbed it. Big mistake!

[imwonderboy]

I am still buying singles but have almost completely moved away from boxes. Prices for me have just been too high as UD tries to pump out product after product with less and less potential 'hits'. It's just so much cheaper to buy the singles you want IMO.

2024 should be interesting as some pretty big Marvel movies will hit the theaters most notably Deadpool 3 and Venom 3.

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by imwonderboy

I am still buying singles but have almost completely moved away from boxes. Prices for me have just been too high as UD tries to pump out product after product with less and less potential 'hits'. It's just so much cheaper to buy the singles you want IMO.

2024 should be interesting as some pretty big Marvel movies will hit the theaters most notably Deadpool 3 and Venom 3.

Some? You mentioned the only two that are worth seeing. Madame Web is going to be a turd wrapped in burned hair.

[DynaEtch]

I agree there are questions about the current status and future of MCU, whether superhero movies generally will continue the garner the wider public's fascination. That of course is most relevant to MCU card sets.

I look at marvel art sets....Im not convinced there is as much interplay as people think between the success of the films and these marvel sets, like Marvel Masterpieces. It's not like in comics 'oh look X is gonna be in this upcoming marvel movie, better stock up on his first appearance issue'- a card set like marvel masterpieces has little relevance to that. Instead, the driver for these sets is 1)the art, and 2)continuity from 90s marvel sets that people collected and loved.

Actually back in the 90s during the first marvel card boom, marvel movies and MCU werent even a thing (for the most part). Granted, comics were in their heydey in terms of mass production and wider public interest (in the early 90s at least), plus you had the X-men animated tv show. Print comics in 2023 are a much, much smaller entity and probably struggling (resorting to gimmicks like variant covers to retain any interest). So it'll be interesting to see if Marvel art cards can still do well without the wider interest in either comics or movies in the longer term future. I think it's such a different medium, that connection to actual movies/shows/comics/storylines is actually not even that important. Heck, I can barely tell you anything about new characters or any story lines going on in marvel now, and Im a huge marvel card collector (most of the characters/stories I know are from like 90s and before).

[PurplesaurusRex]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Yes -- the exclusivity of the Marvel Masterpieces brand is hurting the ability to grow the Marvel card collector base. The focus on parallels is clearly an attempt to appeal to sports card breakers and investors.

And also a cheaper way to pad boxes, these parallels and thicker cards are the only way they can convince people to buy more. But set collectors are becoming rarer by the day.


One thing is for sure, I'll never pre-order another product.

[glorbgorb]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

Some? You mentioned the only two that are worth seeing. Madame Web is going to be a turd wrapped in burned hair.

And we won't see any sets from those movies until 2026 at the earliest, if at all.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by PurplesaurusRex

And also a cheaper way to pad boxes, these parallels and thicker cards are the only way they can convince people to buy more. But set collectors are becoming rarer by the day.


One thing is for sure, I'll never pre-order another product.

This. UD has all but obliterated master set collecting, a pretty major staple in nonsports. It's all being catered to the character collector now, with the rainbows of parallels. That and the gambler. Only a few handfuls of characters are routinely being collected, leaving the value of all the other parallels of obscure characters on these monster sized checklists to plummet. You need to have set collectors to have a market that cares about those cards. I still master set collect masterpieces, and feel like Im a dying breed in the current landscape of marvel. Im also disappointed UD is doing so little for fun promos for sets now, another staple of nonsports in the past. So little is being done to drive actual set collecting- remember the days of Rittenhouse, who would have the set binders and promos for sets? Artbox would do this for non-marvel sets. UD seems to do none of it.

Heck UD is even inching away from focus on sketches, yet another staple of nonsports. Seeing less and less of them in new products (pull rate is lower), and also the quality seems lower across the board. The best sketches Im buying for say MM22 are almost all APs now. There is a massive difference between APs and pack inserted sketches now in marvel, the biggest difference I can remember.

So let's see here....less focus on collecting sets, promos, and sketches. But more emphasis on parallels and autos (artist autos), which are the hits and sell product. Oh and comic clippings which are the equivalent of a jersey relic. If I didnt know any better....I'd think Im in sports now.

[fabiani12333]

Great comments throughout this thread.

I think it's clear UD is just trying to sell products the easiest and most profitable way they can. It's up to collectors and hobbyists to make the most of it and adjust accordingly.

[Marvel Card]

I don’t think there will be another boom but I don’t believe marvel cards will fade into oblivion. I know a lot of us are in our 30s, some our 40s and we will have earning power until retirement. I do believe there won’t be another generation like us though, cards are too expensive for kids to even have an entry point. In that respect, I don’t think the system is set up for today’s kids to become nostalgic for cards like us and therefore, I think the cards will lose value.

But today and in the near future….prices won’t fall off a cliff. The market, while small, I believe has enough of an audience to at least hold today’s prices steady. PMGs are continuing to decrease in value but I, for one, am buying at these prices and my guess is there are at least a few others as well. I’d have to believe if prices dipped another 50%, us collectors would be all over it to supply an artificial bottom.

[One more set]

I’m 43 years old and I collected marvel cards from 91’-96’ when I was a kid. I stopped collecting but kept all of my stuff. Once my kids hit 5 or 6 years old I actually started buying up stuff that I missed out on when I was a kid. Funny story, I started buying up large quantities of product like 6 months before Covid. After buying up everything from 90-98 that I was nostalgic about I told myself I wouldn’t buy anything current because classic marvel was real and the new stuff was trash. It was too late, I was hooked on Covid buying, and haven’t stopped buying since. I’ve bought and sold 30-40k since then and don’t think I will stop unless UD stops pumping out product, or the product the do put out drops in art quality.

And yes, I was wrong, there is some awesome marvel product from 98- now. I look at this stuff as art and display it as such. When I retire in 20 years I will still be buying the stuff from now.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by One more set

I’m 43 years old and I collected marvel cards from 91’-96’ when I was a kid. I stopped collecting but kept all of my stuff. Once my kids hit 5 or 6 years old I actually started buying up stuff that I missed out on when I was a kid. Funny story, I started buying up large quantities of product like 6 months before Covid. After buying up everything from 90-98 that I was nostalgic about I told myself I wouldn’t buy anything current because classic marvel was real and the new stuff was trash. It was too late, I was hooked on Covid buying, and haven’t stopped buying since. I’ve bought and sold 30-40k since then and don’t think I will stop unless UD stops pumping out product, or the product the do put out drops in art quality.

And yes, I was wrong, there is some awesome marvel product from 98- now. I look at this stuff as art and display it as such. When I retire in 20 years I will still be buying the stuff from now.

Im in a similar boat. For me, the early stage collecting was more like 91 to early 95 then I stopped. Which is a bummer since later 95 (1995MM) and 96 (1996MM) are some of the most coveted sets and I was out before then. I came back into the hobby around the original Marvel Beginnings Trio around 2012ish and Rittenhouse was still churning the sets out. (annoyingly I missed out on the classic sketch centric 07-08 Masterpieces sets).

I was just like you, in that I basically swore off new Marvel.....the quality just wasnt there. (heck look at the original Beginnings sets and Rittenhouse...rehashed art galore). I was around for 2016MM when it came out, and that changed my mind, but for me 90s were still the most creatively done and personal favorite sets. The thick stock format of newer marvel cards bugged me a little, being a card collector (those arent really 'cards'). I slowly opened my mind to newer marvel but decided to mainly focus on just MM sets. The phrase getting hooked is very apt...the marvel card bug really draws you in, like a drug. Marvel card collectors are basically art-appreciators. To this day though I still am partial to the 90s over anything current- nostalgia perhaps, but I just think Fleer/Skybox put out the best product. Classic art, shiny 90s tech cards....cant beat it. The one thing that era lacks versus current marvel is the sketches though, not counting the sketchagraphs in the more obscure sets in 1997-1998. I do like sketches.

[One more set]

I will say after getting back into it I have really gained an appreciation for sketches. At first it was a hard no, but over the last year I’ve come to see them for what they are, one of a kind art.