📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

That's a great example, although I was thinking more about basketball.



Good one. I would go towards young players as some people on the other side can claim that LeBron was overpriced before and this is only a "correction".

I haven't followed Paolo's prices, for example, but I would guess that a 2nd year player making the ASG and leading his team to the playoffs should mean prices are up. That would be a good one. Same with Antman.

Paolo’s prices, unfortunately, have always been dipped.

[rifleman69]

He's just not hobby friendly (Paolo)...plus Orlando is like a third world country in terms of NBA popularity.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I was hoping the Pels would deal BI and TM3 for Trae or Melo at the deadline to potentially see a jump. I think Trey needs to move somewhere and he'll get a nice bump.

I like him has a player, I think he's got +player upside.

I predict the Pelicans blow it up next year so now is the buy low sweet spot imo

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Mahomes won his 3rd SB ring recently and his high-end card prices are still in decline. Many of his NT and Flawless RPA's are sitting on ebay and PWCC fixed marketplace with no offers. I would not be surprised if the correction in sports cards market lasted another year or two.

Acuna finished one the greatest seasons in baseball history and his stuff barely budged. Off the top of my head, Ohtani is the only significant player in any major sport to actually see a decent price rise over the last year.

[ninjabum87]

That's what's going to happen when all future (hypothetical) success is baked into current prices with a lot of pandemic-era pump sauce mixed in. Eventually people with functional brains are gonna wise up and look at players like Brady, Manning, Brees, Duncan, Shaq, etc, etc and see how much lower all time greats cards are long term compared to current prices for newer guys and go "wtf am I doing?"

We got to existing prices because these turd speculators were bidding against speculators and hardcore collectors got FOMO and were afraid if they didn't get what they wanted in the run up it would be priced out of reach sooner or later. There is no logical basis for what most modern cards cost these days, only illogical psychology and greed got us here.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by ninjabum87

That's what's going to happen when all future (hypothetical) success is baked into current prices with a lot of pandemic-era pump sauce mixed in. Eventually people with functional brains are gonna wise up and look at players like Brady, Manning, Brees, Duncan, Shaq, etc, etc and see how much lower all time greats cards are long term compared to current prices for newer guys and go "wtf am I doing?"

We got to existing prices because these turd speculators were bidding against speculators and hardcore collectors got FOMO and were afraid if they didn't get what they wanted in the run up it would be priced out of reach sooner or later. There is no logical basis for what most modern cards cost these days, only illogical psychology and greed got us here.

People still haven’t learned that the formula today is:

-Pay four time NBA champion, hall of fame induction, injury-free career prices upon release.

-watch card prices fall until player wins first ring and maybe get 80% of your money back.

-eventually dump at 30-50% buy in cost to go “all-in” on the next once in a lifetime rookie.

[BlueXtreme]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

People still haven’t learned that the formula today is:

-Pay four time NBA champion, hall of fame induction, injury-free career prices upon release.

-watch card prices fall until player wins first ring and maybe get 80% of your money back.

-eventually dump at 30-50% buy in cost to go “all-in” on the next once in a lifetime rookie.

This tbh.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

People still haven’t learned that the formula today is:

-Pay four time NBA champion, hall of fame induction, injury-free career prices upon release.

-watch card prices fall until player wins first ring and maybe get 80% of your money back.

-eventually dump at 30-50% buy in cost to go “all-in” on the next once in a lifetime rookie.

seems like low-IQ or gamblers rush

I just picked up a bunch of aesthetically nice Timmy stuff for way cheap, utterly zero hobby love for him + overproduction I assume (other than Gold Standard which is still darn cheap)

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

seems like low-IQ or gamblers rush

I just picked up a bunch of aesthetically nice Timmy stuff for way cheap, utterly zero hobby love for him + overproduction I assume (other than Gold Standard which is still darn cheap)

It’s kind of sad, but we’re at the point where you don’t need to hold a card for twenty years to watch a player’s career develop, or even two years, to maximize your investment profit.

You simply need to sell the rookie card as soon as you pull it. It’s happened in baseball bowman draft products and NFL prizm as well.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It’s kind of sad, but we’re at the point where you don’t need to hold a card for twenty years to watch a player’s career develop, or even two years, to maximize your investment profit.

You simply need to sell the rookie card as soon as you pull it. It’s happened in baseball bowman draft products and NFL prizm as well.

except I gathered that even a pulled rookie card comes with a gambler's rush buyer's premium, like a new car drops in value once it leaves the lot

So with stickman/Gumby, is the expectation that his prices will remain high until we find out if he wins chips, and if he doesn't they come down? What's the biggest (overall-market-adjusted) historical precedent here, LeChoke? (He won all-fake superteam chips of course, but were those largely priced in?)

edit: somewhere on my purchase hit list is a Mahomes RC, I have to pair it with my Brady RC right?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

except I gathered that even a pulled rookie card comes with a gambler's rush buyer's premium, like a new car drops in value once it leaves the lot

So with stickman/Gumby, is the expectation that his prices will remain high until we find out if he wins chips, and if he doesn't they come down? What's the biggest (overall-market-adjusted) historical precedent here, LeChoke? (He won all-fake superteam chips of course, but were those largely priced in?)

edit: somewhere on my purchase hit list is a Mahomes RC, I have to pair it with my Brady RC right?

Lechoke's best rookie card came out of a pack that cost only $500, his topps chrome came out of $3 packs.

Gumby cards are coming out at a time when degenerate gamblers are paying close to $1000 for a $180 box, and presumably $5000+ for an NT box. Today's break participants, don't forget, are also paying the 4 rings, career healthy, HOF guarantee prices for wax for brand new products.

Today's hyped cards can only go down in price. The new "to da moon" pandemic hobbyists will soon learn that.

The pandemic dump will continue longer than most people here want to hear. Even the OP has conceded and has pushed his forecast out up to another two years instead on this summer, and he may continue to push it out further as the uber high prices continue to decline.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Lechoke's best rookie card came out of a pack that cost only $500, his topps chrome came out of $3 packs.

Gumby cards are coming out at a time when degenerate gamblers are paying close to $1000 for a $180 box, and presumably $5000+ for an NT box. Today's break participants, don't forget, are also paying the 4 rings, career healthy, HOF guarantee prices for wax for brand new products.

Today's hyped cards can only go down in price. The new "to da moon" pandemic hobbyists will soon learn that.

The pandemic dump will continue longer than most people here want to hear. Even the OP has conceded and has pushed his forecast out up to another two years instead on this summer, and he may continue to push it out further as the uber high prices continue to decline.

so hold off on that Mahomes RC then? I think I can do that, or maybe just sell off the Brady RC and stick to basketball

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

so hold off on that Mahomes RC then? I think I can do that, or maybe just sell off the Brady RC and stick to basketball

Are you thinking ANY card is ever going to go back to the pandemic peak?

If you are collecting and don't care about the future value of the cards you buy, please, buy anything you want.

If you are INVESTING in cards, I wouldn't risk any more than you can afford to lose. And good luck.

[hermanotarjeta]

No card investor is ever going to be satisfied with their view from earth when they've already been to the moon.

Prices will continue to disappoint until total capitulation occurs. You've already had a taste of ugly, hope you are all prepared for catastrophic.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Are you thinking ANY card is ever going to go back to the pandemic peak?

If you are collecting and don't care about the future value of the cards you buy, please, buy anything you want.

If you are INVESTING in cards, I wouldn't risk any more than you can afford to lose. And good luck.

I'm not rushing to buy anything non-basketball, and the usual rules of economizing apply (as a clecter I like to clect as much as I can so lower prices help)

of course I'm not expecting pandemic peaks for probably at least a decade or two

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It’s kind of sad, but we’re at the point where you don’t need to hold a card for twenty years to watch a player’s career develop, or even two years, to maximize your investment profit.

You simply need to sell the rookie card as soon as you pull it. It’s happened in baseball bowman draft products and NFL prizm as well.

Yeah the only people who win are breakers or people who flip rookie cards in the first year or two. Even Luka cards for instance, at least the few I am personally interested in it looks like dudes who sold this year got slaughtered compared to what they went for a few years ago.

Your best hope is they sustain top-5 player energy those first 4 or 5 years and that they don't Zion themselves but after that they are gonna start to slide without rings. Then if they get KD'd where they can't make it over the hump with their team and leave for a better one people will change the narrative to them being soft and hobby hype is non-existent.

Like even if Wemby goes the Luka arc best case scenario where do they even go? A long plateau followed by a drop dead point in time where the next big thing comes along and Wemby hasn't gotten a ring or MVP accolades in time to keep the phase 2 stage of his career supporting the prices.

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

I'm not rushing to buy anything non-basketball, and the usual rules of economizing apply (as a clecter I like to clect as much as I can so lower prices help)

of course I'm not expecting pandemic peaks for probably at least a decade or two

I don't know that you will ever see those peaks again on most these modern cards. Junk Wax 2.0, at least when it comes to Prizm or other popular sets. It's one thing when theres one /10 parallel, but when you have 3 types of /10, a /5, FOTL /8, FOTL /18, three kinds of 1/1, multiple /25s, 99s, 199s, 299s, etc etc PLUS all the SP and SSP versions that aren't numbered. Its tens of thousands of the same card with slightly different borders. Who is gonna want to wade through that 20 years from now?

I think if anything it'll be these weird cards nobody even chases now or whatever the influencers tell people is cool at that point.

[nabzy28]

^ I've said it many times over in the football forum - all this paralleled to stupidity shiny crap will be wanted by nearly no one, outside of a player collector - if that. I walk right past showcases of this trash at shows. It's designed for the pelibois to flip and make twitok hype vids, not for actual collectors. Is there room for both in the hobby - yes. You've just got to realize what world you want to live in.

I've been in this one for decades:

Eventually people with functional brains are gonna wise up and look at players like Brady, Manning, Brees, Duncan, Shaq, etc, etc and see how much lower all time greats cards are long term compared to current prices for newer guys and go "wtf am I doing?"

Some of the guys on this list are already climbing again. I'm mainly football and the early 2000's good stuff is absolutely moving up again. Not the huge hyped stuff that was pulling 5-7 figures, but the nicer/rarer stuff that fell into that $200-$500 range, maybe even up to $1k, is getting snapped up quick.

[Zcardsz]

Originally Posted by h00perstar34

I’m not a lebron fan but I see the Jordan effect happening with him within the next 5-7 years. Kids that worship him will have the funds to grab the cards they haven’t been able to afford, like MJs in the late 00s/early 10s

This makes the most sense, AGREE

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Zcardsz

This makes the most sense, AGREE

Wait, there are humans that worship him?

That’s a good one!

The only “kids” who want his cards are grown adults known as millennials who are waiting for their inheritance from their boomer parents so that they can use the money to buy “experiences” in life. Hardly any of them will use the money that they don’t have right now to buy Lebron cards that they could never afford and frankly don’t care to invest in because there is no more upwards potential for profit - anyone who bought them already saw the pandemic pump prices come and go - everyone is a bag holder and there is no longer any stimulus to drive prices up again.

Do you really think gen Zers are going to relieve you of your heavy bags? LOL!

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by nabzy28

^ I've said it many times over in the football forum - all this paralleled to stupidity shiny crap will be wanted by nearly no one, outside of a player collector - if that. I walk right past showcases of this trash at shows. It's designed for the pelibois to flip and make twitok hype vids, not for actual collectors. Is there room for both in the hobby - yes. You've just got to realize what world you want to live in.

I've been in this one for decades:



Some of the guys on this list are already climbing again. I'm mainly football and the early 2000's good stuff is absolutely moving up again. Not the huge hyped stuff that was pulling 5-7 figures, but the nicer/rarer stuff that fell into that $200-$500 range, maybe even up to $1k, is getting snapped up quick.

Probably cause people realized how much of a shitfest modern is.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ninjabum87

Probably cause people realized how much of a shitfest modern is.

Reminds me of the late 90s, having lived through it.

The key is shifting through the $hit to find the cards that will matter in the long run. They're out there, but the catch is that they probably aren't the ones that influencers are telling you they are, just like they weren't back in the 90s:

[Nomad]

I think that there is something cool about the diversity of issues. From the player collector perspective. Finding one never before seen appear on eBay is pretty cool. It helps that my player Brunson-esque is missing in sets of two of his four years in the league and in very few of the non rookie inserts.

[1980bust]

There's a set I've been collecting for a while that is fairly hard to come by with a print run of around 20. A couple of days ago I threw a bid of around $100 higher than what I imagined the card in question could go for at a high (<$500), and still lost the auction

The other set I collect with a print run of 10 is the same story. Overpaying on overpaying seems to be the way forward!

Neither of these are Prizm either btw.

[Nomad]

The Prizm, like the PSA, premium is what really mystifies me. But long may that myth run.