📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by AutoPatchRookie

Anyone have deep thoughts on long term movement of Lebron RCs vs Mahomes? If someone was going to pick between them, is Mahomes the safer bet?

Interesting topic that more than anything will probably be driven by the overall state of the market. But IMO:

LeBron is at the point where his stuff is going to move wherever the market moves. When the market moves, so will key LeBron stuff. Same when the market moves down, LeBron is one of those guys who's moved will be amplified in either direction. What LeBron does have going for him in an established collectors base that'll eat up certain cards, and keep high end ones at a certain support (What that support is, I don't know, but I don't even see an LeBron Exquisite RPA as a 4 figure card... .someone will dip into their bank account to buy it just to own it).

While Mahomes is obviously influenced by the overall market as well, we still may be in the phase where collectors are trying to obtain certain rare cards as they are drying up. I'm not necessarily talking about the $100K+ cards... that's a whole different set of buyers, but the market is still sorting itself out on what other early is going to matter down the line (ie, Prizm Golds are very hard to find, and I get pinged quite frequently about my Prizm Black Finite 1/1).


Sorry it's not a straight answer... just that if you are buying LeBron, you are betting on the market being strong and appreciation for him growing over the years, if you are buying Mahomes you are better on the market to stay strong and him continuing to win, amazing, and be the center of the football world.

[KhalDrogo]

There are a number of high-end LeBron “collectors” who have exited the hobby altogether the past two years. The guys who were responsible for pushing prices to incredible heights even before the pandemic. To me, this explains why you have cards like Ultimate and SPA sitting below their 2018-2019 peaks. The buyers simply aren’t there. There are plenty of guys still out there with massive collections from collecting LeBron for 20 years. But these guys generally weren’t your buyers from 2020-2022.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

From the hobby standpoint.

Of course, we all know Bron never used PEDS, right?

I'd be very surprised if Bonds is on the baseball Hobby Rushmore

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by AutoPatchRookie

Anyone have deep thoughts on long term movement of Lebron RCs vs Mahomes? If someone was going to pick between them, is Mahomes the safer bet?

Football has more flippers than collectors compared to basketball when it comes to high end cards.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by AutoPatchRookie

Anyone have deep thoughts on long term movement of Lebron RCs vs Mahomes? If someone was going to pick between them, is Mahomes the safer bet?

It primarily depends on the card(s) and price-point(s).

Additionally, you have to consider many other variables (consisting of but not limited to):
- Which sport will be more popular worldwide long-term?
- Which sport will have hobby participants spending more money in it long-term?
- The number of unique RCs (low-end/mid-end/high-end) +/- special attributes (numbered, autos [on-card/sticker] vs. non-auto, relics, etc)
- Career/accomplishments/accolades

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Football has more flippers than collectors compared to basketball when it comes to high end cards.

I assume you're referring to the relative percentage within the sport: Percentage of football card participants who flip of all football card participants is higher than the percentage of basketball card participants who flip of all basketball card participants.

I can see that as being true (without referencing actual data) because the sport isn't as internationally loved as basketball.

But I'm really curious about which sport having more card flippers from an absolute value standpoint.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

It primarily depends on the card(s) and price-point(s).

Additionally, you have to consider many other variables (consisting of but not limited to):
- Which sport will be more popular worldwide long-term?
- Which sport will have hobby participants spending more money in it long-term?
- The number of unique RCs (low-end/mid-end/high-end) +/- special attributes (numbered, autos [on-card/sticker] vs. non-auto, relics, etc)
- Career/accomplishments/accolades

I think an additional variable is their off-field persona.

LeBron is already a somewhat polarizing figure. Will he be more polarizing once he retires?

I don't think Mahomes himself is polarizing (his family may be) and I assume he continues on that path.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

I think an additional variable is their off-field persona.

LeBron is already a somewhat polarizing figure. Will he be more polarizing once he retires?

I don't think Mahomes himself is polarizing (his family may be) and I assume he continues on that path.

LeBron’s only hope to become less polarizing is to go back to Cleveland and delete all of his social media accounts.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

I think an additional variable is their off-field persona.

LeBron is already a somewhat polarizing figure. Will he be more polarizing once he retires?

I don't think Mahomes himself is polarizing (his family may be) and I assume he continues on that path.

Absolutely.

There's a number of variables to consider and there's certainly a hierarchy for which ones are more important than others (at least what's important to collectors/flippers/etc).

LeBron is definitely a polarizing figure but we have to also remember that MJ was an #@#@#@#@#@#@#@ to fans/teammates with a gambling addiction that led to his father's death and Kobe raped a young woman. Off-field persona certainly holds some weight but I don't think it's as significant as you're making it. Also, we don't know how many "mistakes" Mahomes will make over the next 11 years haha.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

I think an additional variable is their off-field persona.

LeBron is already a somewhat polarizing figure. Will he be more polarizing once he retires?

I don't think Mahomes himself is polarizing (his family may be) and I assume he continues on that path.

Lavar James more polarizing once he retires?

Absolutely.

[pejc300]

I think buying Lebron is a little scary to be completely honest with you. As Khal said, a lot of the big buyers are gone, and a lot of the true collectors already have the cards they want in terms of the big ones. Lebron is not universally loved, and as others have said his off the court persona is not super likable (IMO). Now, he's a good family man, gives a ton of money away, no trouble with the law, etc. So I'm not saying he's a bad guy. I just don't see people loving him the way they do MJ and Steph. Even people who "hate" Jordan respect him; I don't see the same with Lebron.

Lebron is incredible and what he is doing at his age is staggering. But if the guy retires with 4 rings in 21 or 22 years it really doesn't stack up to MJ having 6 in 15. So I honestly am just hesitant of Lebron's overall market when he retires.

I have long been on record saying that I think this generation is going to view Steph in higher regard, and I think his market will get close or pass Lebron down the road. He revolutionized the game, and there is absolutely no dispute that he's the greatest shooter in history. He's a bit whiny at times, but people seem to like/respect him overall.

Just my two cents.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by pejc300

I think buying Lebron is a little scary to be completely honest with you. As Khal said, a lot of the big buyers are gone, and a lot of the true collectors already have the cards they want in terms of the big ones. Lebron is not universally loved, and as others have said his off the court persona is not super likable (IMO). Now, he's a good family man, gives a ton of money away, no trouble with the law, etc. So I'm not saying he's a bad guy. I just don't see people loving him the way they do MJ and Steph. Even people who "hate" Jordan respect him; I don't see the same with Lebron.

Lebron is incredible and what he is doing at his age is staggering. But if the guy retires with 4 rings in 21 or 22 years it really doesn't stack up to MJ having 6 in 15. So I honestly am just hesitant of Lebron's overall market when he retires.

I have long been on record saying that I think this generation is going to view Steph in higher regard, and I think his market will get close or pass Lebron down the road. He revolutionized the game, and there is absolutely no dispute that he's the greatest shooter in history. He's a bit whiny at times, but people seem to like/respect him overall.

Just my two cents.

Plus, the kids who can’t afford Curry cards right now because they are too young are going to push up prices when they get older when they have good paying jobs - kids today seem to have a better attitude about that versus those from 30 years ago who grew up watching Bron.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Plus, the kids who can’t afford Curry cards right now because they are too young are going to push up prices when they get older when they have good paying jobs -kids today seem to have a better attitude about that versus those from 30 years ago who grew up watching Bron.

You mean the pelibois at card shows gambling with their parents money?

Untitled by icollector23, on Flickr

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Plus, the kids who can’t afford Curry cards right now because they are too young are going to push up prices when they get older when they have good paying jobs - kids today seem to have a better attitude about that versus those from 30 years ago who grew up watching Bron.

I really think this is true. Looking at what Jordan cards continue to do. It's wild. Steph has had some nice "bumps" throughout his career, but his cards have never gone nuclear yet (except his NT RPA was insane like everything else for a hot minute). I'm bullish on Steph, but I've also been wrong many times before.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Plus, the kids who can’t afford Curry cards right now because they are too young are going to push up prices when they get older when they have good paying jobs - kids today seem to have a better attitude about that versus those from 30 years ago who grew up watching Bron.

Originally Posted by pejc300

I really think this is true. Looking at what Jordan cards continue to do. It's wild. Steph has had some nice "bumps" throughout his career, but his cards have never gone nuclear yet (except his NT RPA was insane like everything else for a hot minute). I'm bullish on Steph, but I've also been wrong many times before.

I agree with you both.

There's a lot of upside with Curry's main cards because there's many children who are currently priced out of such cards (who, when having enough disposable income in 1-2 decades, will pick up such cards) or haven't entered the hobby yet (but when they do, they'll pick up cards of their childhood GOAT).

Not to mention, there's a number of Curry cards available for good prices (even relative to current market prices).

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

pelibois

what's that

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

I agree with you both.

There's a lot of upside with Curry's main cards because there's many children who are currently priced out of such cards (who, when having enough disposable income in 1-2 decades, will pick up such cards) or haven't entered the hobby yet (but when they do, they'll pick up cards of their childhood GOAT).

Not to mention, there's a number of Curry cards available for good prices (even relative to current market prices).

How many investors/collectors are willing to spend 100-200K on a Curry NT RPA/99 today and have the patience to wait 10-20 years out hoping to sell it to todays kids for a profit, especially when there are safer alternatives out there?

Originally Posted by GOATcards

what's that

Kids carrying pelican cases at card shows. Hermano uses that derogatory term for todays kids who seem to have a better attitude

[KhalDrogo]

Steph’s parallel is Kobe. LeBron’s parallel is MJ. He’s just fractionally as collectible.

LeBron’s market has many headwinds. The shrinking high-end buyer pool, multiple decades of playing day cards, and an infinite number of cards in retirement are the three most problematic.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

How many investors/collectors are willing to spend 100-200K on a Curry NT RPA/99 today and have the patience to wait 10-20 years out hoping to sell it to todays kids for a profit, especially when there are safer alternatives out there?

Curry's NT RPA isn't the only card out there. I wouldn't even recommend picking up the UD Exquisite at its current price-point.

You'll most likely see better ROI with his lower/mid-end stuff like Crown Royale /399, Classics /500, TC /999, various RC sticker autos (at good price-points), etc.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Curry's NT RPA isn't the only card out there. I wouldn't even recommend picking up the UD Exquisite at its current price-point.

You'll most likely see better ROI with his lower/mid-end stuff like Crown Royale /399, Classics /500, TC /999, various RC sticker autos (at good price-points), etc.

You mentioned "There's a lot of upside with Curry's main cards", so I assumed you were referring to NT RPA as well. The bolded part is plausible.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

You mentioned "There's a lot of upside with Curry's main cards", so I assumed you were referring to NT RPA as well. The bolded part is plausible.

The NT RPA is certainly one of Curry's best cards, no argument there. Way too risky to buy at today's price-point though.

Still a lot of upside with a number of Curry's main rookie cards.

Obviously, it's all dependent on price-point but you can get some deals on the aforementioned cards (as well as some that weren't mentioned) because they're not too limited (so enough supply to negotiate a good price) but limited enough (demand exceeds supply, and demand will continue to rise over time).

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

The NT RPA is certainly one of Curry's best cards, no argument there. Way too risky to buy at today's price-point though.

Still a lot of upside with a number of Curry's main rookie cards.

Obviously, it's all dependent on price-point but you can get some deals on the aforementioned cards (as well as some that weren't mentioned) because they're not too limited (so enough supply to negotiate a good price) but limited enough (demand exceeds supply, and demand will continue to rise over time).

The negative is that Curry has so many aftermarket rookie autos as well, many of them with inscriptions such as baby faced assassin, 3pt king etc.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

The negative is that Curry has so many aftermarket autos as well.

Strictly from an auto standpoint, I wouldn't worry about Curry's aftermarket autos affecting his true rookie auto prices.

Why?

Because a pack-pulled rookie auto is the end goal. People only settle for the lesser stuff (aftermarket) because the better (or best) stuff is unattainable (that's why I think the aforementioned rookie autos will do well, because though everyone would love to own an NT RPA, 99.9% of Curry collectors are priced out of the card OR would have to offload the vast majority of their collection for that single card) OR they already have the best stuff but want something unique.

Many of Curry's pack-pulled rookie card auto cards are still within reach (reasonably priced relative to other cards in the market).

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Strictly from an auto standpoint, I wouldn't worry about Curry's aftermarket autos affecting his true rookie auto prices.

Why?

Because a pack-pulled rookie auto is the end goal. People only settle for the lesser stuff (aftermarket) because the better (or best) stuff is unattainable (that's why I think the aforementioned rookie autos will do well, because though everyone would love to own an NT RPA, 99.9% of Curry collectors are priced out of the card OR would have to offload the vast majority of their collection for that single card) OR they already have the best stuff but want something unique.

Many of Curry's pack-pulled rookie card auto cards are still within reach (reasonably priced relative to other cards in the market).

Collectors will have have plenty of Curry Autos (both RC and non-RC) to choose from. Obviously some like pack pulled RC Autos such as Crown Royale /399, Classics /500 will stand out and be more desirable similar to certain Kobe autos. Kobe, Kareem, Magic and Bird also have plenty of autographed cards. It does affect their card prices in the long run in my opinion.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Collectors will have have plenty of Curry (RC and non-RC) to choose from. Obviously some will stand out and be more desirable similar to Kobe autos.

Yup, and the vast majority will want to own an iconic rookie card (NT RPA, if not, TC) as well as a rookie auto (on-card as the priority).

That's why the aforementioned cards will likely do well (only something at the macro-level would stand in the way). Because, they're reasonably priced right now, limited enough and will be the main targets for future Curry collectors.