TJ Watch… Spencer Strider on the clock

[jhssketchcards]

These guys don’t all of the sudden get hurt. It’s a build up over years. I don’t care if he had a previous TJ, that means he was straining the elbow post Clemson. Too many innings and dads demanding sliders and curves at 14-18.


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[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by regularp

Who cares if someone can touch 100 if they're injured every other year and max out at 150-160 innings?

There's certain guys like Verlander, Scherzer and Cole who are built to withstand the punishment and have rubber arms. Those three also know how to pitch and dial it up/back when needed.

Usually, they end up like deGrom: dominant when healthy but consistently having arms problems.

Let me know when your group holds up for five consecutive seasons.

You don’t get it. You don’t need one guy to hold out for 5 seasons, you need 5 guys to hold up for 1 each.

You need to look at it from the perspective of the team. They don’t care about long term health of player (although that’s a bonus) they care about winning ball games and they’ll win the most games by having as many people that throw really hard as possible then immediately replacing them with next guy with filthy stuff once they go down

So
How do the Braves win, Hope Strider doesn’t get hurt, he did ok they signed Lopez who throws 100 made him a starter, will being up Shawver who throws 100, then bring up Waldron who throws 100, then by the time one of them needs TJ strider js back

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

You need to examine the total population of people that can throw 93 (which still means he can like touch 96 which is fast) and the total population of people that can throw 100 then compare results.

For example let’s group younger pitchers and future aces into categories: I’ll take the guys that hit 100 group: Ragans, Jones, Skenes, Buns, Miller, Grayson, Crochet, Miller, Hicks (he’s like 27 but first tjme starting), Gore, Belllo, luzardo; Meyer….

You cna have good young guys that throw < 95: Bibbe who averaged 94.9 last year

We're not talking about prospects, and you claim that Major Leaguers work at 87-100 because 82-94 gets hit into the bleachers. ("There just work between 87 and 100 beucsse if they are 82-94 it ends up in the bleachers.")

Literally in just three games, just today:

Ranger Suarez 75-92 mph (6 innings)
Jake Irvin 80-95 mph (6 innings)
Derek Law 80-94 mph
Dylan Floro 85-91 mph
Bailey Falter 85-92 mph (6 innings)
Tyler Wells 75-94 mph (5.1 innings)
Dillon Tate 76-92 mph
Keegan Akin 85-94
Jacob Webb 80-93 mph
Jordan Wicks 83-94 mph (4.2 innings)
Jose Cuas 83-93 mph
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 75-96 mph (5 innings)
Ryan Brasier 82-94 mph
Yency Almonte 81-95 mph
Mark Leiter 81-91 mph

The scores of those games were 5-2, 4-1, and 3-3 in the 9th.

The majority of pitchers in the league work in these ranges.

[coachnip13]

Another game from today. The final score was 3-1.

Steven Matz 82-95 mph (5 innings)
Trevor Rogers 83-93 mph (5 innings)
Giovanny Gallegos 82 93 mph
Bryan Hoeing 83-95 mph
JoJo Romero 84-95 mph

[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by onenineeightsix

MLB doesn’t have to do anything, youth sports leagues do. Parents do. College coaches do. These guys arms are past their prime by the time they get to the league. 25 years old with a 35 year old arm. Not rocket science.

^^^^

All the travel teams don't help. These kids are playing tournaments every weekend. Add in the analytics that show them the spin rate and everything and they are putting young arm ligaments on a huge strain that eventually they give way when they mature.

[coachnip13]

Another game from today. The final score was 4-0.

Kenta Maeda 73-90 mph (5.2 innings)
Paul Blackburn 77-91 mph (6 innings)
Austin Adams 87-94 mph
Joey Wentz 80-94 mph

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

You don’t get it. You don’t need one guy to hold out for 5 seasons, you need 5 guys to hold up for 1 each.

You need to look at it from the perspective of the team. They don’t care about long term health of player (although that’s a bonus) they care about winning ball games and they’ll win the most games by having as many people that throw really hard as possible then immediately replacing them with next guy with filthy stuff once they go down

So
How do the Braves win, Hope Strider doesn’t get hurt, he did ok they signed Lopez who throws 100 made him a starter, will being up Shawver who throws 100, then bring up Waldron who throws 100, then by the time one of them needs TJ strider js back

Lopez doesn't throw 100 when he's a starter.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

Another game from today. The final score was 4-0.

Kenta Maeda 73-90 mph (5.2 innings)
Paul Blackburn 77-91 mph (6 innings)
Austin Adams 87-94 mph
Joey Wentz 80-94 mph

Maeda and Wentz have both had TJ surgery

[JRX]

Heavy slider usage is usually a giant warning sign for arm problems. The harder the slider the worse. 90+ sliders didn't exist back in the day, it was fastball changeup curve

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[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Maeda and Wentz have both had TJ surgery

Thank you.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Lopez doesn't throw 100 when he's a starter.

Lopez was 85-95 in his first start.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

Lopez was 85-95 in his first start.

Yup. He dials it up when he's a reliever and can sit high 90's. He doesn't do that when he's starting.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

We're not talking about prospects, and you claim that Major Leaguers work at 87-100 because 82-94 gets hit into the bleachers. ("There just work between 87 and 100 beucsse if they are 82-94 it ends up in the bleachers.")

Literally in just three games, just today:

Ranger Suarez 75-92 mph (6 innings)
Jake Irvin 80-95 mph (6 innings)
Derek Law 80-94 mph
Dylan Floro 85-91 mph
Bailey Falter 85-92 mph (6 innings)
Tyler Wells 75-94 mph (5.1 innings)
Dillon Tate 76-92 mph
Keegan Akin 85-94
Jacob Webb 80-93 mph
Jordan Wicks 83-94 mph (4.2 innings)
Jose Cuas 83-93 mph
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 75-96 mph (5 innings)
Ryan Brasier 82-94 mph
Yency Almonte 81-95 mph
Mark Leiter 81-91 mph

The scores of those games were 5-2, 4-1, and 3-3 in the 9th.

The majority of pitchers in the league work in these ranges.

Of that list, here's who has had TJ surgery:
Irvin
Law
Wells
Webb
Cuas
Braiser
Almonte
Leiter (who also doesn't throw a 2 or 4 seam fastball)

Bailey Falter has also had a UCL tear, but didn't have surgery.

It's almost like it's not just throwing hard that is causing the issues. And for some guys, max effort might mean hitting 92-93, while others might hit 95-96 at less than max effort.

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

We're not talking about prospects, and you claim that Major Leaguers work at 87-100 because 82-94 gets hit into the bleachers. ("There just work between 87 and 100 beucsse if they are 82-94 it ends up in the bleachers.")

Literally in just three games, just today:

Ranger Suarez 75-92 mph (6 innings)
Jake Irvin 80-95 mph (6 innings)
Derek Law 80-94 mph
Dylan Floro 85-91 mph
Bailey Falter 85-92 mph (6 innings)
Tyler Wells 75-94 mph (5.1 innings)
Dillon Tate 76-92 mph
Keegan Akin 85-94
Jacob Webb 80-93 mph
Jordan Wicks 83-94 mph (4.2 innings)
Jose Cuas 83-93 mph
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 75-96 mph (5 innings)
Ryan Brasier 82-94 mph
Yency Almonte 81-95 mph
Mark Leiter 81-91 mph

The scores of those games were 5-2, 4-1, and 3-3 in the 9th.

The majority of pitchers in the league work in these ranges.

Really good point. Velocity is one way to fool hitters, but not the only way -- but it does seem like the "industry" pushes pitchers into a certain mold.

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Of that list, here's who has had TJ surgery:
Irvin
Law
Wells
Webb
Cuas
Braiser
Almonte
Leiter (who also doesn't throw a 2 or 4 seam fastball)

Bailey Falter has also had a UCL tear, but didn't have surgery.

It's almost like it's not just throwing hard that is causing the issues. And for some guys, max effort might mean hitting 92-93, while others might hit 95-96 at less than max effort.

I think the point was that you don't have to throw 100 to be successful. Agree with you that max effort might be the issue more than the speed.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by StateEx

Really good point. Velocity is one way to fool hitters, but not the only way -- but it does seem like the "industry" pushes pitchers into a certain mold.

There is a large contingency pushing velocity on amateur players, and they are making a fortune selling it. They tell kids that velo is the only way to be successful. That's how we end up having a guy like Ben Hess getting hit by college hitters at 98-100 while Zack Littell and Justin Steele are carving up MLB hitters at 92-94.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by StateEx

I think the point was that you don't have to throw 100 to be successful. Agree with you that max effort might be the issue more than the speed.

It's not really great to use one game to say someone has been successful at lower speeds. Because I watched Jacob Webb get knocked around plenty of times as a Brave.

Also watching Max Fried, whose averages sat 81-94 last season, just get hammered for the second time this season

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

It's not really great to use one game to say someone has been successful at lower speeds. Because I watched Jacob Webb get knocked around plenty of times as a Brave.

Also watching Max Fried, whose averages sat 81-94 last season, just get hammered for the second time this season

Pick any pitcher that gets hammered, and whether he throws 90, 95, or 103, he got hammered because of location. And the same is true in reverse. Guys who get outs, whether they throw 90, 95, or 103, change speeds and hit spots.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

It's not really great to use one game to say someone has been successful at lower speeds. Because I watched Jacob Webb get knocked around plenty of times as a Brave.

Also watching Max Fried, whose averages sat 81-94 last season, just get hammered for the second time this season

Not sure if this is referring back to my posts, but my point wasn't to show that one game makes a guy successful. Rather, it was to show that the majority of the league is throwing 82-94.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

Pick any pitcher that gets hammered, and whether he throws 90, 95, or 103, he got hammered because of location. And the same is true in reverse. Guys who get outs, whether they throw 90, 95, or 103, change speeds and hit spots.

You realize MlB avg vs middle middle fastballs 101+ is like .050 right?

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

You realize MlB avg vs middle middle fastballs 101+ is like .050 right?

I see you're skipping over a whole lot of posts to make one very small point that impacts three pitchers in the entire league.

[coachnip13]

Start here: "There just work between 87 and 100 beucsse if they are 82-94 it ends up in the bleachers." (sic)

[coachnip13]

Another game, score is 0-0 in the 5th.

There have been 95 pitches in the Royals - White Sox game, and every pitch has been from 70.7-94.8 mph.

5 of the 95 pitches were over 94 mph.

Zero runs scored.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

Not sure if this is referring back to my posts, but my point wasn't to show that one game makes a guy successful. Rather, it was to show that the majority of the league is throwing 82-94.

You can also show a bunch of guys that sit upper 90's that are successful as well. There's 126 pitchers this season with a 4-seam FB that averages faster than 94.0 mph. There's 53 guys that have a sinker that averages 95.

I'm not really sure what any of you are arguing about, because none of it has to do with what might lead to someone needed Tommy John

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

Not sure if this is referring back to my posts, but my point wasn't to show that one game makes a guy successful. Rather, it was to show that the majority of the league is throwing 82-94.

1. You are ignoring almost all of the relievers. You mention Suarez then neglect they bring in Hoffman who throws upper 90s and then 2 then 2 other guys that sit 98 with their sinkers. So yes Phillies you are taking a starter that throws 93-94 sinkers and 3 relievers that throw 97-100 to illustrate how velocity doesn’t matter