TJ Watch… Spencer Strider on the clock

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

You can also show a bunch of guys that sit upper 90's that are successful as well. There's 126 pitchers this season with a 4-seam FB that averages faster than 94.0 mph. There's 53 guys that have a sinker that averages 95.

I'm not really sure what any of you are arguing about, because none of it has to do with what might lead to someone needed Tommy John

Start with my first post and see the quote I responded to. It might make sense then.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

1. You are ignoring almost all of the relievers. You mention Suarez then neglect they bring in Hoffman who throws upper 90s and then 2 then 2 other guys that sit 98 with their sinkers. So yes Phillies you are taking a starter that throws 93-94 sinkers and 3 relievers that throw 97-100 to illustrate how velocity doesn’t matter

I showed that the majority of pitchers and the majority of pitches thrown are in the 82-94 range. That was in direct response to your claim that "There just work between 87 and 100 beucsse if they are 82-94 it ends up in the bleachers."

Even most of the relievers haven't been 97-100.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

Start with my first post and see the quote I responded to. It might make sense then.

I read your post. And then you kept listing players that pitched today that sit low 90s with their fastball. You continuing to just list pitchers with slower fastballs doesn't do a thing to argue your point of needing to change speeds and hit location

You're right, it doesn't matter if you throw 85 or 105 if you aren't hitting your spots or have movement. But if you aren't hitting your spots, throwing harder sure does give a pitcher a better chance of getting it by a hitter. Note the comment about average against middle middle at 100+. Whether or not that was them hitting their location or not, I bet that average is much lower than compared to 90-95 middle middle.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

I read your post. And then you kept listing players that pitched today that sit low 90s with their fastball. You continuing to just list pitchers with slower fastballs doesn't do a thing to argue your point of needing to change speeds and hit location

You're right, it doesn't matter if you throw 85 or 105 if you aren't hitting your spots or have movement. But if you aren't hitting your spots, throwing harder sure does give a pitcher a better chance of getting it by a hitter. Note the comment about average against middle middle at 100+. Whether or not that was them hitting their location or not, I bet that average is much lower than compared to 90-95 middle middle.

Him: "There just work between 87 and 100 beucsse if they are 82-94 it ends up in the bleachers."

Me: Here's a whole bunch of guys on just one day who throw 82-94.

It really is that simple.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

But if you aren't hitting your spots, throwing harder sure does give a pitcher a better chance of getting it by a hitter.

If you're not hitting your spots, you're playing in some minor league city.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

If you're not hitting your spots, you're playing in some minor league city.

Yes, over the long run. In a one off, not even close.

Having velocity can help make up for things on those off nights.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

Him: "There just work between 87 and 100 beucsse if they are 82-94 it ends up in the bleachers."

Me: Here's a whole bunch of guys on just one day who throw 82-94.

It really is that simple.

That has nothing to do with hitting spot and changing speeds. You keep telling me to go back to that comment. That comment doesn't mean anything, because I can go out and give you a whole bunch of guys that sit 95+

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

That has nothing to do with hitting spot and changing speeds. You keep telling me to go back to that comment. That comment doesn't mean anything, because I can go out and give you a whole bunch of guys that sit 95+

His comment doesn't mean anything because it is factually incorrect. Saying that MLB pitchers don't work between 82-94 when the majority of pitchers work between 82-94 is verifiably wrong.

Hitting spots and changing speeds is how the guys throwing 82-94, which is the majority of the league, have success.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

His comment doesn't mean anything because it is factually incorrect. Saying that MLB pitchers don't work between 82-94 when the majority of pitchers work between 82-94 is verifiably wrong.

Hitting spots and changing speeds is how the guys throwing 82-94, which is the majority of the league, have success.

It's the same way the guys throwing 87-100 have success as well. So again, I'm not sure what argument you are making?


I assume the whole "being successful" is talking about being successful at the major league level and not just making it there. And let's be honest, there's plenty of unsuccessful pitchers in the league as well. There's plenty of bad pitchers in the league, when compared to the MLB, not every level of baseball around the world

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

So again, I'm not sure what argument you are making?

Him: MLB pitchers don't throw 82-94
Me: Yes they do. Actually, most of them do.

I'm really not sure how much simpler I can make it.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

Him: MLB pitchers don't throw 82-94
Me: Yes they do. Actually, most of them do.

I'm really not sure how much simpler I can make it.

Except then you went rambling done 50 other avenues that had nothing to do with that.

There are plenty of pitchers in the league that throw harder than 94 (the whole range thing is stupid, nobody cares about a slow breaking ball compared to a fastball). But sure, hang your hat on your "majority" comment. Keep using the entirety of the league and suggesting they are all successful.

Of the top 5 in Cy Young voting in 2023, 6 of the 9 average above 94.0 on their fastball. Logan Webb should be excluded because he only threw 117, 3.7%, last season. So, even with Webb, a majority of the top pitchers in the league threw with higher velocity.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Except then you went rambling done 50 other avenues that had nothing to do with that.

There are plenty of pitchers in the league that throw harder than 94 (the whole range thing is stupid, nobody cares about a slow breaking ball compared to a fastball). But sure, hang your hat on your "majority" comment. Keep using the entirety of the league and suggesting they are all successful.

Of the top 5 in Cy Young voting in 2023, 6 of the 9 average above 94.0 on their fastball. Logan Webb should be excluded because he only threw 117, 3.7%, last season. So, even with Webb, a majority of the top pitchers in the league threw with higher velocity.

Tell the person who came up with the range, then, while claiming that no one in MLB works at 82-94. Don't come after the person who corrected it.

Over 700 pitchers threw at least 100 pitches in Major League Baseball in 2023. Most of them max out at around 94. His claim is that 94 gets hit into the seats. Clearly it doesn't. That's the extent of the point. No one was talking about the top .01 of the league. You just went on that tangent by yourself.

You injected yourself into this. If you don't get it, really, I don't care.

[johnlocke36]

lol here’s 300 guys that averaged 95+ (I round up) not to mention the guys below this that were throwing sinkers 2 seamers 93-94 range. And if they are sitting 94.5 they are touching 96-97 so your claim that most are maxing out at 94 is hilariously wrong


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[johnlocke36]

Anyway back to the question of why found this interesting. Pitch clock/banning sticky stuff (what flashier blamed his injury on) could play a large role



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[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

lol here’s 300 guys that averaged 95+ (I round up) not to mention the guys below this that were throwing sinkers 2 seamers 93-94 range. And if they are sitting 94.5 they are touching 96-97 so your claim that most are maxing out at 94 is hilariously wrong


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There were 711 pitchers who threw 100+ pitches last year.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

There were 711 pitchers who threw 100+ pitches last year.

You said most guys maxed out at 94. I showed you 300 that can likely touch 97. He’ll that screen shot alone which is the “slower” end of the list I see at least 2 guys that touch 100

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

You said most guys maxed out at 94. I showed you 300 that can likely touch 97. He’ll that screen shot alone which is the “slower” end of the list I see at least 2 guys that touch 100

This is you moving the goalposts, per usual.

Your claim was that they WORK at 87-100. Not that they have the ability to "touch" a certain velocity. "Working" at a certain velocity is where most of your pitches fall on the scale. That tends to be your average.

#284 on your list is at, what, 94.4? And there were 711 MLB pitchers? So 427 MLB pitchers were below that number. 427>284

[coachnip13]

There just work between 87 and 100 beucsse if they are 82-94 it ends up in the bleachers.

I showed you 300 that can likely touch 97.

Pick one.

[jhssketchcards]

John Smoltz was the first pitcher elected to the HOF to have Tommy John surgery.
In fact, he is the ONLY pitcher elected to the HOF who had it. Amazing that so many pitchers in the HOF who have won multiple CY, 300+ games, tons of innings throwing multiple pitches never had the surgery.
Ironic that none of those guys were playing baseball gear round at ages kids do today. We also see position players getting it done whereas it was unheard of in years past.
The amount of innings kids play has a huge impact on their arm strains. Micro tears and abrasions can be undetected for years before they develop into fillip or partial tears. Growth plates develop differently for kids.. some kids grow 2-3 inches per year between ages 12-18, and some explode with growth of 4-5 inches in a one year span (my 16 yr old went from 5’5 to 6’0 in one year).
Talk to any orthopedic surgeon and they will tell you kids shouldn’t throwing breaking pitches until ages 17-18, and even then on a limited number of pitches. Change-ups can b as effective as a curve, but people want velocity, so sliders and sweepers have become the go to.
We will see more top prospects and MLB stars lose years to one or more TJ surgeries. Strider on his second, Ohtani had his 2nd in less than 4 years.
Elbows can only take so much damage. Tendons snd ligaments aren’t eternal. The short life of pitchers who throw hard will take over MLB and that is one reason we will never see 250+ game winners and possibly 200 game winners again.
But it all starts in little league and travel baseball.


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[regularp]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Anyway back to the question of why found this interesting. Pitch clock/banning sticky stuff (what flashier blamed his injury on) could play a large role



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Straight bozo babble from Strider.

Pitcher's arms weren't falling off 20 years ago. They also weren't throwing with max effort on every pitch.

Today their arms are falling off left and right. They ARE throwing with max effort on every pitch now.

41 guys threw at least 200 innings in 2004. Last year, it was five.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by regularp

Straight bozo babble from Strider.

Pitcher's arms weren't falling off 20 years ago. They also weren't throwing with max effort on every pitch.

Today their arms are falling off left and right. They ARE throwing with max effort on every pitch now.

41 guys threw at least 200 innings in 2004. Last year, it was five.

Pitchers from 2004 wouldn’t be throwing 200 innings now either and a good portion of them would be throwing 0 innings without max effort.

If you have Josh hader, Edwin Diaz in your bullpen are you really gonna tell Lina Hernandez to go back out there for the 9th?


Pitchers throwing less innings now is a product of the environment, it’s not the environment causing pitchers to throw less innings. In order for a pitcher to throw the 8th and 9th they have to be better than the best guys in the bullpen and in a lot of cases that’s very hard to do. They are also required ti go max effort becuase hitters so good. So if your goal is to win then optimal approach is always gonna be 5-6 innings max effort starter 3-4 innings stud relievers

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by regularp

Straight bozo babble from Strider.

Pitcher's arms weren't falling off 20 years ago. They also weren't throwing with max effort on every pitch.

Today their arms are falling off left and right. They ARE throwing with max effort on every pitch now.

41 guys threw at least 200 innings in 2004. Last year, it was five.

Do you have any proof that these pitchers are throwing max effort on every pitch? Do you have any proof that pitchers weren't throwing max effort on every pitch 20 years ago? Tommy John and UCL injuries are not proof of anything.

What's the magical effort they should be throwing with? 90%? 87.4%?

It's not babble from Strider. The sticky substances that they were able to use 20 years ago meant they were able to create movement on pitches with less effort. You remove that substance and now players are forced to use more effort to create that same movement.

There's plenty of videos out there showing guys taking more than a minute in between pitches 20 years ago. There's documentation of guys regularly taking 30+ seconds between pitches. The extra time means more time to recover to throw the same 97 mph fastball.

Strider isn't the only pitcher who has said those things.

Talk all you want about guys not throwing 200 innings these days, but I'd rather not watch Shawn Estes and his 5.84 ERA continue to stay in games for that many innings. Or Sidney Ponson and his 5.30 ERA

[regularp]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Indeed.

[regularp]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Pitchers from 2004 wouldn’t be throwing 200 innings now either and a good portion of them would be throwing 0 innings without max effort.

If you have Josh hader, Edwin Diaz in your bullpen are you really gonna tell Lina Hernandez to go back out there for the 9th?


Pitchers throwing less innings now is a product of the environment, it’s not the environment causing pitchers to throw less innings. In order for a pitcher to throw the 8th and 9th they have to be better than the best guys in the bullpen and in a lot of cases that’s very hard to do. They are also required ti go max effort becuase hitters so good. So if your goal is to win then optimal approach is always gonna be 5-6 innings max effort starter 3-4 innings stud relievers

Hitters are "so good" now but in 2004, the league average was .266, on base was .333 and slugging was .428.

In 2023, the league average was .248, on base was .320 and slugging was .414.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by regularp

Indeed.

Making some pretty bold statements with nothing to back them up champ.

But thanks for admitting you don't know what you're talking about about. Injuries have been increasing in multiple sports. Take a look at the NFL and how many non-contact injuries there are.

But sure, keep talking about the good ol' days of Ryan Drese getting to 200 innings one season. You know he never pitched more than 138 innings in any other season, only threw about 355 innings over his other 5 MLB seasons, and was out of the league by 2006, with injuries being a factor?

Or are you going to ignore that Randy Johnson threw 245 innings in 2004 and would regularly throw 100mph? But sure, he was only throwing with 80% effort...