The vanishing premium for a modern PSA 10

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by tyrith

TCG market is turbo competitive these days. It was amazing 3-4 years ago,...

I agree with this. I graded a lot of Pokémon from 2018 to early 2023 and very little since then. There was seemingly too much price manipulation going on in the raw market in 2023 while the overall gem premium was falling. Further, the quality of S&V is terrible relative to previous series making it more difficult to acquire supply. I now mainly stick to Pokémon I stumble upon at various card shows and good raw is getting more difficult to find at those events too as most dealers have showcases full of PSA 10 stuff, suggesting they already cherrypicked the good stuff.

I have much better luck finding nice modern raw sports cards but very rarely come across top quality 80s and earlier cards. And locating high grade true vintage is a real needle in a haystack these days.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I have much better luck finding nice modern raw sports cards but very rarely come across top quality 80s and earlier cards. And locating high grade true vintage is a real needle in a haystack these days.

Depends on the sport. I still find 9/10's in the 80's quite often and it gets harder from each decade you go back. Still lots of great raw cards out there.

There are a lot of great hockey and football raw vintage cards I find in high grades raw, even from the 60's. Basketball is much harder than both of those sports, but much easier than baseball.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I agree with this. I graded a lot of Pokémon from 2018 to early 2023 and very little since then. There was seemingly too much price manipulation going on in the raw market in 2023 while the overall gem premium was falling. Further, the quality of S&V is terrible relative to previous series making it more difficult to acquire supply. I now mainly stick to Pokémon I stumble upon at various card shows and good raw is getting more difficult to find at those events too as most dealers have showcases full of PSA 10 stuff, suggesting they already cherrypicked the good stuff.

My family has been opening 2-3 boxes of every release and the number of illustration rare or better cards that we're opening that are 10 candidates is ridiculously small considering that these are coming out of fresh, sealed cases.

[Dereth]

Originally Posted by anusinha

TCG is even better than vintage once you figure it out

I have been trying to expand into TCG but outside of sealed product it doesn't make any sense to me. I see different PSA/CGC 10 slabs at a local card shop for $15-20 and think that it must be a good buy since they're selling for basically the cost to grade, but when I comp them it seems like they're always overpriced at those levels. Outside of your huge cards like Moonbreon or Giratina V, it doesn't seem like it makes a ton of sense to grade the vast majority of stuff.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by Dereth

I have been trying to expand into TCG but outside of sealed product it doesn't make any sense to me. I see different PSA/CGC 10 slabs at a local card shop for $15-20 and think that it must be a good buy since they're selling for basically the cost to grade, but when I comp them it seems like they're always overpriced at those levels. Outside of your huge cards like Moonbreon or Giratina V, it doesn't seem like it makes a ton of sense to grade the vast majority of stuff.

I don't get that market at all either. I know nothing about Pokemon. There is a half million Pokemon being graded every month though. I am just shocked at how much of that stuff must be printed every month.

On the sports card side. The margins are getting really small for PSA 10s. Even less for the others. As a collector, this is great news. Even better, that I can get 9's and 9.5's for less than the cost of grading on some base and basically the cost of raw on a lot of other stuff. Ok with me.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Dereth

I have been trying to expand into TCG but outside of sealed product it doesn't make any sense to me. I see different PSA/CGC 10 slabs at a local card shop for $15-20 and think that it must be a good buy since they're selling for basically the cost to grade, but when I comp them it seems like they're always overpriced at those levels. Outside of your huge cards like Moonbreon or Giratina V, it doesn't seem like it makes a ton of sense to grade the vast majority of stuff.

If you look at what the grading companies are doing right now, they're getting a massive amount of TCG slabs. The most pointless junk slabs being created are in UM Pokemon.

[KhalDrogo]

No clue who is buying up most UM Pokémon slabs. I buy Pikachu for the registry, but I’m one and done for all regular releases from ~2019+. There aren’t enough character collectors or set builders to support the numbers. And this stuff is printed to the moon. Hard to see it holding value, especially when the older stuff is so cheap in comparison.

[JWBlue]

I am seeing a 2x multiple on PSA 10 over PSA 9. Does that sound right?

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

I am seeing a 2x multiple on PSA 10 over PSA 9. Does that sound right?

For most modern stuff, yeah that's about right.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

I am seeing a 2x multiple on PSA 10 over PSA 9. Does that sound right?

2x works as a benchmark, it's higher than that on cheap cards and less than that on expensive ones. And then PSA 9 = raw (except raw cards that are clearly badly centered will do less.)

[MavsRChamps]

A trend I’ve noticed that is maybe just more apparent is I’m seeing some raw cards from 1995-2010 period outsell PSA 8’s. Which doesn’t make much logical sense. Even when these raw cards are clearly dinged up and would most likely grade 7, I’m seeing this. Personally I love psa 8’s from condition sensitive sets from this era, most of them are in better shape than raw cards so you can sometimes get the grading “free” essentially.

[collective]

The market is doing what markets do, it's correcting. The Covid craze wasn't sustainable. Grading prior to the pandemic was predominantly reserved for cards worthy of grading, and this was at a time when grading costs were largely under $10/card.

Ultra modern base rookies with a pop count of 10k+ aren't special. Junk wax 7th year (HOF) base sitting in a 8 holder aren't special. The market is flooded with sh*t. The junk slab era is upon us

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by collective

The market is doing what markets do, it's correcting. The Covid craze wasn't sustainable. Grading prior to the pandemic was predominantly reserved for cards worthy of grading, and this was at a time when grading costs were largely under $10/card.

Ultra modern base rookies with a pop count of 10k+ aren't special. Junk wax 7th year (HOF) base sitting in a 8 holder aren't special. The market is flooded with sh*t. The junk slab era is upon us

Early on, within the first year, base cards could get a nice premium on 10s and a breakeven/slight loss on 9s. That was also before the base boom and increase in production.

Even refractors/parallels of guys who are young stars are struggling to even make some money on PSA 10s.

It is almost getting to the point where you have to get a hot box/case and hit the key rookies in parallel format for sending into grading vs. buying it and then sending it in. Just a very large pull back, and if PSA doesn't adjust then I am not sure I could reup my membership.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Grave252

There's really no reason to grade new releases. Sell immediately, buy back 2 months later and grade what you want.

Some people want to skip the entire buy singles, submit and hope for a PSA 10 strategy and just spend $30 on a 2024 Topps Chrome Base card of their player or team. If you're getting a discount to grade, it works. If you're spending $20 plus to grade base cards, well, you wont be doing it for long.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

Early on, within the first year, base cards could get a nice premium on 10s and a breakeven/slight loss on 9s. That was also before the base boom and increase in production.

Even refractors/parallels of guys who are young stars are struggling to even make some money on PSA 10s.

It is almost getting to the point where you have to get a hot box/case and hit the key rookies in parallel format for sending into grading vs. buying it and then sending it in. Just a very large pull back, and if PSA doesn't adjust then I am not sure I could reup my membership.

Everyone is chasing a higher high without realizing it will never come. Replace cards with opiates and you see the same pattern.

Base was once great. Then it was replaced by the refractor/silver prizm. Those were replaced by numbered parallels. Then came lower numbered parallels. Next was case hit SPs. Those became 1:10 case SSP. Then 1/1s. Then premium product 1/1s. Then Logoman auto 1/1s. Then game used Logoman auto 1/1s.

Each step up might represent a better card in the hobby. But the high you get from each step up is lower than before.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Everyone is chasing a higher high without realizing it will never come. Replace cards with opiates and you see the same pattern.

Base was once great. Then it was replaced by the refractor/silver prizm. Those were replaced by numbered parallels. Then came lower numbered parallels. Next was case hit SPs. Those became 1:10 case SSP. Then 1/1s. Then premium product 1/1s. Then Logoman auto 1/1s. Then game used Logoman auto 1/1s.

Each step up might represent a better card in the hobby. But the high you get from each step up is lower than before.

This is what tends to happen when the collectors base evaporates. Where there once was enough demand to keep base and refractors prices up, now there is only enough to keep the ultra rare stuff up. This also explains why new stuff drops in value so quick, once the few people who are actually collecting are done, the singles collapse.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Everyone is chasing a higher high without realizing it will never come. Replace cards with opiates and you see the same pattern.

Base was once great. Then it was replaced by the refractor/silver prizm. Those were replaced by numbered parallels. Then came lower numbered parallels. Next was case hit SPs. Those became 1:10 case SSP. Then 1/1s. Then premium product 1/1s. Then Logoman auto 1/1s. Then game used Logoman auto 1/1s.

Each step up might represent a better card in the hobby. But the high you get from each step up is lower than before.

Originally Posted by anusinha

This is what tends to happen when the collectors base evaporates. Where there once was enough demand to keep base and refractors prices up, now there is only enough to keep the ultra rare stuff up. This also explains why new stuff drops in value so quick, once the few people who are actually collecting are done, the singles collapse.

There is always someone/something new. What I learned for grading to sell for a profit (I am sure others have too) is to try and find the next guy up. As in who will be hot in the month-ish timeframe when I would get them back. I bought up a ton of Stroud (non-base/silvers) and graded to sell. Made a decent profit doing it. Also made a little bit of money doing the same with Bryce which shocked me since I wasn't too high on him doing well.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by anusinha

This is what tends to happen when the collectors base evaporates. Where there once was enough demand to keep base and refractors prices up, now there is only enough to keep the ultra rare stuff up. This also explains why new stuff drops in value so quick, once the few people who are actually collecting are done, the singles collapse.

Yep, though I think it's more of the speculator base that's evaporated versus the true collector base. Shows, shops, trade nights, forums, etc. seem to be more populated than ever. There's probably more collectors now than during the early 90s boom. That said, there are still only so many hobby dollars to go around and the market can only absorb so many slabs. It doesn't help this is the doldrums time of year for most cards.

There's still some solid gem premiums to be had but one needs to be cognizant of what's bringing those premiums. Got a color match Trout, Harper, Betts, etc. and you'll do just fine. Try squeezing a buck on some random second year Yordan Alvarez refractor and you might end up losing money. Yes, there's going to be a lot of card show bargain boxes full of junk slabs in the coming years. That's not entirely a new phenomenon though. There's currently no shortage of failed prospect or fallen star slabs in those boxes now but cards of elite players always seem to hold up over the long haul.

[Scottish Punk]

Did you see the monthly gemrate numbers for May. PSA and SGC both record highs again. At least SGC was a high. PSA did over 1.3, I don't recall them hitting 1.4 before. Either way, nothing is slowing down between the two!!

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Did you see the monthly gemrate numbers for May. PSA and SGC both record highs again. At least SGC was a high. PSA did over 1.3, I don't recall them hitting 1.4 before. Either way, nothing is slowing down between the two!!

Which means the slab market is strong, albeit arguably diluted. There's no way that many slabs go out each month if they're not generating profits overall. I've certainly had no trouble getting money out of gem Harper, Judge, Betts, and even gimpy Trout. It's the borderline guys I can't as easily move for a profit: Lindor, Riley, Alonso. I suppose I can just keep the ones I've yet to submit in the CS1 holders for a long while.

The so-called junk slab era is going to revolve around underperforming players like Tatis and failed prospects. Nothing really new in this regard. There's just going to be a heck of a lot of more of them than what existed five to ten years ago.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Which means the slab market is strong, albeit arguably diluted. There's no way that many slabs go out each month if they're not generating profits overall. I've certainly had no trouble getting money out of gem Harper, Judge, Betts, and even gimpy Trout. It's the borderline guys I can't as easily move for a profit: Lindor, Riley, Alonso. I suppose I can just keep the ones I've yet to submit in the CS1 holders for a long while.

The so-called junk slab era is going to revolve around underperforming players like Tatis and failed prospects. Nothing really new in this regard. There's just going to be a heck of a lot of more of them than what existed five to ten years ago.

Also non-premium ultra modern TCG slabs and low grade vintage TCG slabs. The TCG portion of the slabs being graded is declining as a percentage, but it's still a very large portion of the market.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Which means the slab market is strong, albeit arguably diluted. There's no way that many slabs go out each month if they're not generating profits overall.

The majority of orders don't generate profits and lose money. This is a hobby of gambling and unexperienced graders. There are experienced graders that know what they are doing, but this is a small minority right now. Go to YouTube and watch some reveal videos. You will see people that have no idea what they are doing, blaming PSA, and losing a lot of money.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Grading or interest in graded cards is not the problem. It’s the cards themselves. The sets are boring. There’s no originality. Some of the best young players in all sports are not signing licensed cards. Wax is too expensive. Singles almost guarantee sunk cost.

There are two groups of buyers right now. True hobbyists and really dumb “investors”. This ultra modern market is not sustainable as is.

Completely agree with this. My interest in collecting is as high as it’s ever been and I’m buying plenty. But I can’t get into the ultra modern stuff and have moved on. Thought it was great when it was new, but it’s been the same for 5 years—only each year they add 100 new parallels that I don’t even want to keep straight. Plus it costs a ton—just not worth it. It’s driving me back to 80’s/90’s/early 2000’s. There’s so much quality there to keep me there.

[Gary]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The majority of orders don't generate profits and lose money. This is a hobby of gambling and unexperienced graders. There are experienced graders that know what they are doing, but this is a small minority right now. Go to YouTube and watch some reveal videos. You will see people that have no idea what they are doing, blaming PSA, and losing a lot of money.

This has been going on for 5 years,only during covid bad decisions were masked by the boom.now all those guys are losing money thinking it was never going to end.most of them to stubborn to accept the gravy train is done.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The majority of orders don't generate profits and lose money. This is a hobby of gambling and unexperienced graders. There are experienced graders that know what they are doing, but this is a small minority right now. Go to YouTube and watch some reveal videos. You will see people that have no idea what they are doing, blaming PSA, and losing a lot of money.

You can’t prove your first claim here. YouTube videos are not proof that a majority of grading orders lose money. It’s an impossible metric to figure out anyway, as a true loss would involve using a theoretical sale of the card in raw condition.