Ranking the best release sets

[Bradley5280]

Hello, I’m still pretty new but one thing I’ve picked up on is that all sets are not equal and neither are all rookie cards. I was thinking we could list the best/highest value sets in order based on people’s opinion please.

For this example let’s say the card is a victor Wembanyama or Brandon Miller base rookie and the brand is all under panini. How would you rank the 2024 sets? This would include Prizm, draft Prizm, Don Russ Rookie Rated, etc. etc.? I think this would be a good piece of information for us newer people to learn as it’s very clear not all base rookie cards are of identical value. Also for the example I’m only talking about nba licensed products

Thanks for helping out with your knowledge!

[Nomad]

Thing is if you are an Wemby investor any profits accrued will be a decade or more in the future, as a title run or two and several All Star appearances is already factored into the price. And by then the most desirable sets will have changed (see Metal Universe). What's the question again?

[90skid]

Don't worry about other people's opinions...

Do you like pictures of men on cardboard with drapes in the background? Go with Prizm.

Do you like actual game action photographs taking most of the space used on the card? Go with Panini One and One.

[WaiverWire]

I think there are lots of fakes out there of all the above and do not trust PSA or BGS to catch them. So I wish you good luck.

[Bradley5280]

Yeah so I guess my concern is helping myself and others new to the hobby understand the overall value. For example, if you saw a base VW rookie in Prizm at $20 and saw a base in Don Russ for $20 as well then how do you discern? From my research it sounds like the Prizm would be the better deal? It might be natural for y’all to interpret that but I was hoping there was some general opinion on the hierarchy of the sets. Or at least is there a hierarchy in terms of value for basketball sets? Thanks!

[Nomad]

This is the one area where collectors are actively hoping to keep any pockets of perceived value hidden. GL.

[mondogenerator]

every player is a gamble. historic sets or insert sets that are super popular now, weren't originally in such high regard. opinions and who wears the crown at any particular time changes very quickly - ie, zion etc etc

just buy what you like that is within your budget and you're happy with the distinct possibility you'll lose 50% + of that value over time except for a few rare instances.

[Tallboy]

Originally Posted by Bradley5280

Hello, I’m still pretty new but one thing I’ve picked up on is that all sets are not equal and neither are all rookie cards. I was thinking we could list the best/highest value sets in order based on people’s opinion please.

For this example let’s say the card is a victor Wembanyama or Brandon Miller base rookie and the brand is all under panini. How would you rank the 2024 sets? This would include Prizm, draft Prizm, Don Russ Rookie Rated, etc. etc.? I think this would be a good piece of information for us newer people to learn as it’s very clear not all base rookie cards are of identical value. Also for the example I’m only talking about nba licensed products

Thanks for helping out with your knowledge!

So I've been chewing on this for a bit deciding how I want to answer. Decided I'm just going to try to give you an overview of things as I perceive the view of the Hobby. But before I do I'll emphasize that I personally focus less on the brand and more based on the photography, and that means that I'm focused on particular cards than sets, though there are programs that I'm more likely to fall in love with for than others.

When you're looking to jump in based on the existing market, I'd expect you'd be focused on brands that have been around a while and/or have specific momentum, so I'll point out brands which to me qualify, grouped by premium level:

Super-Premium Level
Flawless
Immaculate
Impeccable
National Treasures
One and One

Of the group, National Treasures is the most sought after of the bunch, but all are solid:

Premium level:
Contenders
Noir
Obsidian
Panini Black
Spectra

This one's dicier. If you look below you'll see brands like Elite that are certainly intended to be of premium quality, but in practice many brand start aiming for premium and then when they don't specifically gain traction, they drop in stature. Of the group here Contenders is the most established brand, though far more so in football than basketball. Spectra is the one that feels like a failed premium.

The one's in the middle are interesting because their names all basically mean the same thing. Did we really need 3 brands whose names all mean "black"? I don't think so and I think it hurts all of them in the long term. That said, I often quite like all 3 brands designs more so than Contenders, Spectra, or the Super-Premiums. Forced to choose however, I'd side with Noir as the strongest of the "black brands".

Base level:
Chronicles
Court Kings
Crown Royale
Donruss/Optic
Elite
Hoops
Mosaic
Origins
PhotoGenic
Prizm
Revolution
Select

Now we have the general category which includes all sorts of extremely well-made cards, but which were either always intended to be base level, or have over time failed to maintain a distinction relative to the base level.

Which were designed to be base? Donruss & Hoops are the two biggies there. For this reason always expect their RCs to be just about the cheapest of the bunch...but my guess is that there will be more interest in people continuing to buy them after Panini exits the NBA more so than a number of the other brand.

Chronicles is the relatively recent program to be created that at its heart is unabashedly base, and I'd say it's also been a big hit. It's a weird program because of all the sub-programs that make it up and the insane amount of different RCs you can get there. This is what helped it stand out compared to other programs, and may render it in the safest of the pure base.

So what about these other "premium base" brands?

Well, Prizm has been Panini's true flagship ever since it debuted. Back when I got back in the Hobby in 2020, Prizm cards were priced WAY higher than the other brands I grouped them with here. Now that's advantage has basically disappeared at least for more recent vintages. Time will tell whether Prizm getting overblown and coming back down to earth will result a cringe-factor with them, but I'd say most likely Prizm will be considered singularly iconic enough to stand out both above the other premium bases and the pure bases.

Donruss Optic is the chrome-upgrade to Donruss, and not too long ago it was considered the top rival to premium. Optic has a high floor because it's never going to be cheaper than Donruss, and the floor of Donruss is pretty solid, but I feel like the enthusiasm for this hasn't held up like a Topps/Bowman Chrome.

I might have a bias with regards to Court Kings - my favorite of Panini's programs across their basketball run - but I think there's been a gradual building respect for it. It's clearly distinct from other brands in a way that leaves no confusion, and it's been generally quite well done across its run. Also, because Court Kings originates from Donruss Diamond Kings in baseball, and there's such history there, I feel like it will age better than most of Panini's programs.

I'll note that there are other Donruss-spawned brands that Panini has run as program (Elite, for example) just as there are other Playoff-spawned (Absolute), Pinnacle-spawned (Select), Pacific-spawned (Crown Royale), but I don't really think any of them are likely to give people nostalgia vibes going forward, and so I think in general they'll fair more poorly.

As I say that, Select and Revolution have been pretty solid for a good while in the Panini era, and are probably in better shape going forward.

Finally we have PhotoGenic which I would say has been the best non-premium program to debut for Panini at least since Chronicles. I should say that calling it non-premium is pretty debatable - it's definitely not a Donruss/Hoops/Chronicles-type. But while it's got most of the modern stuff you want plus thick card stock, it's clearly seen as Panini's answer to Stadium Club/Ultra for basketball (whereas it was Luminance for football), and while Stadium Club was once seen as the original Super-Premium brand, now it's firmly a base level brand.

Now I have to acknowledge that PhotoGenic is my favorite of Panini's recent additions, and may end up battling it out with Court Kings and Hoops for me in terms of brands I feel warm & fuzzy about when all is said and done, but my love here may mean I overrate its future.

But I do expect that when Topps takes over basketball, they'll bring back Stadium Club, and while people may knock PhotoGenic as the poor man's Stadium Club, at least they have a category in mind (full bleed, quality photography) that they can place it in which separates it from many of the other programs.

I think I'll leave it there despite not leaving you with a clear cut ranking. Feel free to ask for clarification, but in general if I didn't make it clear, it probably means I don't think there's a clear stature/investment difference.

[Nomad]

Where is Optic Contenders?

I would categorize stuff a little differently. Crown Royale, CK, and others seem like some sort of thin stock premium category that would also include Contenders, which would be the best of the bunch.

Prizm, Select, Mosaic, there's a chromed out trio.

[Tallboy]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Where is Optic Contenders?

I would categorize stuff a little differently. Crown Royale, CK, and others seem like some sort of thin stock premium category that would also include Contenders, which would be the best of the bunch.

Prizm, Select, Mosaic, there's a chromed out trio.

I suppose for consistency I should have included it, but honestly Contenders Optic has just never felt like it was really separate from Contenders to me.

In terms of those others being in a category with Contenders, well, Panini still generally makes it a point for the Contenders RC to be an Auto. They treat Contenders like it's on a different level than these other brands even though I don't get the impression that basketball people think it should be.

ftr, I think Contenders getting elevated to become THE brand of football during Playoff's tenure is one of the most fluky things. Playoff was just throwing everything at the wall with Contenders, and then when the ticket design with rookie autos caught fire, they stuck with that design forever.

There have been some Contenders designs since I like, but all too often I find myself focused on the fake ticket with made-up numbers than I do on the actual athlete.

[Nomad]

Cracked ice paper stock Contenders is one of the most beautiful cards in hand.

Optic I don't really feel it.

I am really not a fan of the souped up base this year, a contenders pack is now like crown Royale.

[Bradley5280]

Originally Posted by Tallboy

So I've been chewing on this for a bit deciding how I want to answer. Decided I'm just going to try to give you an overview of things as I perceive the view of the Hobby. But before I do I'll emphasize that I personally focus less on the brand and more based on the photography, and that means that I'm focused on particular cards than sets, though there are programs that I'm more likely to fall in love with for than others.

When you're looking to jump in based on the existing market, I'd expect you'd be focused on brands that have been around a while and/or have specific momentum, so I'll point out brands which to me qualify, grouped by premium level:

Super-Premium Level
Flawless
Immaculate
Impeccable
National Treasures
One and One

Of the group, National Treasures is the most sought after of the bunch, but all are solid:

Premium level:
Contenders
Noir
Obsidian
Panini Black
Spectra

This one's dicier. If you look below you'll see brands like Elite that are certainly intended to be of premium quality, but in practice many brand start aiming for premium and then when they don't specifically gain traction, they drop in stature. Of the group here Contenders is the most established brand, though far more so in football than basketball. Spectra is the one that feels like a failed premium.

The one's in the middle are interesting because their names all basically mean the same thing. Did we really need 3 brands whose names all mean "black"? I don't think so and I think it hurts all of them in the long term. That said, I often quite like all 3 brands designs more so than Contenders, Spectra, or the Super-Premiums. Forced to choose however, I'd side with Noir as the strongest of the "black brands".

Base level:
Chronicles
Court Kings
Crown Royale
Donruss/Optic
Elite
Hoops
Mosaic
Origins
PhotoGenic
Prizm
Revolution
Select

Now we have the general category which includes all sorts of extremely well-made cards, but which were either always intended to be base level, or have over time failed to maintain a distinction relative to the base level.

Which were designed to be base? Donruss & Hoops are the two biggies there. For this reason always expect their RCs to be just about the cheapest of the bunch...but my guess is that there will be more interest in people continuing to buy them after Panini exits the NBA more so than a number of the other brand.

Chronicles is the relatively recent program to be created that at its heart is unabashedly base, and I'd say it's also been a big hit. It's a weird program because of all the sub-programs that make it up and the insane amount of different RCs you can get there. This is what helped it stand out compared to other programs, and may render it in the safest of the pure base.

So what about these other "premium base" brands?

Well, Prizm has been Panini's true flagship ever since it debuted. Back when I got back in the Hobby in 2020, Prizm cards were priced WAY higher than the other brands I grouped them with here. Now that's advantage has basically disappeared at least for more recent vintages. Time will tell whether Prizm getting overblown and coming back down to earth will result a cringe-factor with them, but I'd say most likely Prizm will be considered singularly iconic enough to stand out both above the other premium bases and the pure bases.

Donruss Optic is the chrome-upgrade to Donruss, and not too long ago it was considered the top rival to premium. Optic has a high floor because it's never going to be cheaper than Donruss, and the floor of Donruss is pretty solid, but I feel like the enthusiasm for this hasn't held up like a Topps/Bowman Chrome.

I might have a bias with regards to Court Kings - my favorite of Panini's programs across their basketball run - but I think there's been a gradual building respect for it. It's clearly distinct from other brands in a way that leaves no confusion, and it's been generally quite well done across its run. Also, because Court Kings originates from Donruss Diamond Kings in baseball, and there's such history there, I feel like it will age better than most of Panini's programs.

I'll note that there are other Donruss-spawned brands that Panini has run as program (Elite, for example) just as there are other Playoff-spawned (Absolute), Pinnacle-spawned (Select), Pacific-spawned (Crown Royale), but I don't really think any of them are likely to give people nostalgia vibes going forward, and so I think in general they'll fair more poorly.

As I say that, Select and Revolution have been pretty solid for a good while in the Panini era, and are probably in better shape going forward.

Finally we have PhotoGenic which I would say has been the best non-premium program to debut for Panini at least since Chronicles. I should say that calling it non-premium is pretty debatable - it's definitely not a Donruss/Hoops/Chronicles-type. But while it's got most of the modern stuff you want plus thick card stock, it's clearly seen as Panini's answer to Stadium Club/Ultra for basketball (whereas it was Luminance for football), and while Stadium Club was once seen as the original Super-Premium brand, now it's firmly a base level brand.

Now I have to acknowledge that PhotoGenic is my favorite of Panini's recent additions, and may end up battling it out with Court Kings and Hoops for me in terms of brands I feel warm & fuzzy about when all is said and done, but my love here may mean I overrate its future.

But I do expect that when Topps takes over basketball, they'll bring back Stadium Club, and while people may knock PhotoGenic as the poor man's Stadium Club, at least they have a category in mind (full bleed, quality photography) that they can place it in which separates it from many of the other programs.

I think I'll leave it there despite not leaving you with a clear cut ranking. Feel free to ask for clarification, but in general if I didn't make it clear, it probably means I don't think there's a clear stature/investment difference.

Honestly man thank you so much for all of that information, I sincerely appreciate it more than I can express. There’s a lot of information there and as I’m still new a chunk went over my head but I screen shotted your response to review as a resource. This is the most helpful answer I’ve gotten to any of my questions I’ve asked by far and I appreciate the time you took to help me learn.

I think Nomad had a point where sadly it does seem in my experience on here and other sites that a portion of collectors want to keep stuff hidden when it comes to perceived value. I assume to use to their advantage over the uneducated in the hobby but who knows. Thank you both though for your feedback.

[Tallboy]

Originally Posted by Bradley5280

Honestly man thank you so much for all of that information, I sincerely appreciate it more than I can express. There’s a lot of information there and as I’m still new a chunk went over my head but I screen shotted your response to review as a resource. This is the most helpful answer I’ve gotten to any of my questions I’ve asked by far and I appreciate the time you took to help me learn.

I think Nomad had a point where sadly it does seem in my experience on here and other sites that a portion of collectors want to keep stuff hidden when it comes to perceived value. I assume to use to their advantage over the uneducated in the hobby but who knows. Thank you both though for your feedback.

Hey, you're welcome Bradley! I'm glad that it was helpful.

Yeah, in comparison with other sports discussion, I feel like sports card discussion has a built-in cynicism now that there's this track record of these cards being seen as investors. When people think you're coming in trying to make a quick buck, they understandably don't want to help you.

It's made trickier by the fact that there's a spectrum from the pure-investors to the pure-collectors. All collectors now know the potential for making & losing money though, so maybe pure-collectors no longer exist...but if that means we just treat everyone else as a threat, it kills the fun.

I'm someone who absolutely would love it if his collection became a lot more valuable, but I have a job already and I don't collect cards to give myself more work.

And more acutely: I just refuse to pay money for cards that I consider poorly executed, even if I think that because others aren't so aesthetically driven, the poor execution won't stop that card from being a good investment.

[Tallboy]

So, just because I'm feeling a little emboldened, I'm going to share the Wemby cards I've purchased, which I'd say are the cards that have impressed me most aesthetically so far - particularly relative to their category.



It's not typical for male basketball players to have their first pro card be from Sports Illustrated for Kids the way it is in women's or in more minor sports, but that's how it ended up for Wemby and the card - as SIFK often does - is fantastic by subject aesthetic. You get an immediate view both in terms of how Wemby looks on the court and you get a profile pic in back.



Between the various Bowman U cards in the '22-23 releases it's clear that the Bowman U Chrome RC was designed with scarcity to be the greater of the two, but the Bowman U Best RC actually has a pic that shows Wemby in dynamic action.

Note that in both cases these are not NBA jerseys, but they are also not photos with logos airbrushed out (because they aren't required to). There are some pretty good Wemby cards that have the logos missing, but it definitely hurts them for me. (Note, I don't actually have to see the team logo to love a card, but if I can tell there should be a logo showing and there isn't, it bugs me.)



I've already been singing the praises of this card on other thread. Love the front photo showing Wemby make Giannis look like that. Emblematic of the type of dominance we hope to see Wemby have.

To me this is the best NBA-jersey official RC I've seen of Wemby, and I think it's unlikely that any other will top it. But it's not perfect. The front photo doesn't have a direct view of Wemby's face, and the back photo...well there is none, as per usual with Panini.

Still more props to PhotoGenic. Love that program!



This one's not a part of the Hoops main set, so technically not a RC. Additionally, we barely see Wemby's jersey so while it looks like he's in his NBA jersey, for all we know he might not be.

While this card is technically an insert, and I'm generally less fond of inserts than main set cards, there's nothing about this card that has the kind of real-estate-clogging silliness that many inserts have. This card is a pure and simple portrait shot that could have been used for an official RC.

In the end portrait shots are all about how they make the subject look, and this one makes the 7'4"+ alien look...like a pretty normal-looking, good-looking dude. (No trace of acromegaly at all!)

Last note: When I mention Hoops as a brand I feel warm & fuzzy about, there are a number of reasons for that with its deep history, but a thing that has stood out to me that I don't really hear discussed is that Hoops has had the best photography out of any of Panini's long-term programs.

I really think Panini's done a great job with Hoops, and I think that's interesting because I'm critical of a lot of what they've done, particularly on the more premium levels.

[Archangel1775]

Best Autos:

1. National Treasures Rookie Patch Auto (Base Set Numbered)
-Rest of the NT RPA's fall under the base set numbered RPA

2. Flawless Rookie Patch Auto (Vertical)
-Rest of the Flawless RPA's fall under the vertical

3. All the other RPA's with on-card autos being more in demand/popular


Non-Auto Rookie Cards:

1. Prizm 1/1's
2. Optic 1/1's
3. Prizm Gold /10
4. Prizm Gold Vinyl /5
5. Optic Gold /10
6. Prizm/Optic Low Numbered
7. Downtown/Color Splash SSP Inserts
8. Prizm/Optic Silvers
9. Everything else

[Bradley5280]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Best Autos:

1. National Treasures Rookie Patch Auto (Base Set Numbered)
-Rest of the NT RPA's fall under the base set numbered RPA

2. Flawless Rookie Patch Auto (Vertical)
-Rest of the Flawless RPA's fall under the vertical

3. All the other RPA's with on-card autos being more in demand/popular


Non-Auto Rookie Cards:

1. Prizm 1/1's
2. Optic 1/1's
3. Prizm Gold /10
4. Prizm Gold Vinyl /5
5. Optic Gold /10
6. Prizm/Optic Low Numbered
7. Downtown/Color Splash SSP Inserts
8. Prizm/Optic Silvers
9. Everything else

Thank you so much for the response and insight! This is extremely beneficial as general guidelines to assess value. I have noticed that the silvers seem more expensive than the other parallels on a per card basis so that aligns perfectly with your list. Thank you again!