✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[Trueblue]

Wow um, shobomb ASG #1

[Onepocketj]

No doubt on that one

[NYRE2PECT]

He’s just the best and he’s having fun.

I love it.


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[hammertime]

Absolutely annihilated. Let's get some more 3 run bombs in the games that count, huh?

[seanrs1]

Looks like Ohtani wants the Dodgers to have home field advantage in the world series.

[Trueblue]

I'm suddenly interested in the NL winning so Sho can win the game MVP.

[SoCalsFinest]

Then Webb's gotta have no control tonight and ruin it...

[Trueblue]

Flashbacks of 2018-23.

[ThoseBackPages]

what a great game for Sho!

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Wanted to initiate some discussion!

Any predictions for Ohtani's final statistics this year and if you think he will win the NL MVP?



Also was wondering what people were buying lately and how the market is going for the Ohtani market you collect.?



Seems like low end RC raw cards keep falling in price. Graded low end RC seem to be doing better than raw. Medium end RC cards also seem to be trending down. I am actually a little surprised because Ohtani seems to normally peak around the all star game.



I have been buying a ton of low end RC lately with the market falling. Scored one really great deal buying at 2021 mid season prices!

I just bought this. Hope it turns into a fine 9.

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[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by redauto5

I just bought this. Hope it turns into a fine 9.

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Glad someone here caught that card. Def fell through the cracks . Fine 9 for sure.

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Glad someone here caught that card. Def fell through the cracks . Fine 9 for sure.

Thanks! I was super pumped at the hammer price, never thought it'd go that cheap. It's such an iconic Sho card... I love grabbing as many as I can.

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[Rage]

1st MLB player with a HR and a W in All Star games.

1st MLB player in the ASG to have the all the RBI's and BB's for his team. (3,1)

Still doing Unicorn things while rehabbing from TJ

[hammertime]

Now comes the post-ASG blues, 2 days of no baseball.

To help pass the time here are a few random recent pickups.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by redauto5

I just bought this. Hope it turns into a fine 9.

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I was going to bid on the card! I assumed it would go for more than I wanted to pay! It clearly did not. I think I bought that same card raw in 2021 or 2022 for like $235 on Ebay. At the time I thought I got it on the low end of comps.

This goes to show there is something wrong with this market. Buy as much as you can while the prices are down. It can't stay like this moving forward can it?

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Just nasty

Love this card!

[Cards and 401K]

The market will turn around when the average collector has more disposable income again maybe in a year or so.


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[Bcr]

The singles market is fine. It's the sealed wax market that is not with reality and likely won't be for a long time under Fanatics

[Trueblue]

If you collect within your means and add to your Sho rookie collection, I am willing to bet you will feel pretty good in 5-10 years.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Bcr

The singles market is fine. It's the sealed wax market that is not with reality and likely won't be for a long time under Fanatics

There is something definitely wrong in the singles market. Ohtani is having his best year as a hitter and and is the front runner to win NL MVP as a DH. His low and medium end RC cards can be had at 2021 and 2022 prices. He is the best player of his generation. His card prices should be down over 50% from his peak. He is a Dodger (vs Angels) and his team is one of the favorites to come out of the west. To me this says the singles market is not healthy (sellers are out pacing buyers).

No doubt the sealed wax market is worse. I don't understand why anyone would buy new wax at these insane prices. Would be better off going to the casino and gambling.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

There is something definitely wrong in the singles market. Ohtani is having his best year as a hitter and and is the front runner to win NL MVP as a DH. His low and medium end RC cards can be had at 2021 and 2022 prices. He is the best player of his generation. His card prices should be down over 50% from his peak. He is a Dodger (vs Angels) and his team is one of the favorites to come out of the west. To me this says the singles market is not healthy (sellers are out pacing buyers).

No doubt the sealed wax market is worse. I don't understand why anyone would buy new wax at these insane prices. Would be better off going to the casino and gambling.

The problem with your assumption is that (and looking at your BO join date), your sample size of normal is from 2019-2023. That is a really bad calibration period of what to generally expect in this hobby. The rarest high-end cards always end up becoming an exorbitant share of that player's market cap. Look at Pujols/Ichiro - their non-gem base is dirt dirt cheap and ~95% of their market cap value comes from high-end. That is the eventuality with Shohei as well.

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

There is something definitely wrong in the singles market. Ohtani is having his best year as a hitter and and is the front runner to win NL MVP as a DH. His low and medium end RC cards can be had at 2021 and 2022 prices. He is the best player of his generation. His card prices should be down over 50% from his peak. He is a Dodger (vs Angels) and his team is one of the favorites to come out of the west. To me this says the singles market is not healthy (sellers are out pacing buyers).

No doubt the sealed wax market is worse. I don't understand why anyone would buy new wax at these insane prices. Would be better off going to the casino and gambling.

I strongly suggest doing some more research on card prices in general. CardLadder and other similar sites track historical data of sales and can give you better insight to a lot of your questions.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Bcr

I strongly suggest doing some more research on card prices in general. CardLadder and other similar sites track historical data of sales and can give you better insight to a lot of your questions.

I feel like I have a pretty good pulse on the current market and historic prices. I started collecting Ohtani in 2021 when his cards started taking off. Are you saying my percentage on the low and medium end market is off? At peak, 2018 #700 RC were like $35 raw. You can now find them at $15 or $20 pretty easily right now. I can name numerous other examples. Ohtani low and medium end RC cards are way down from his peak from last year, and spring training this year.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

The problem with your assumption is that (and looking at your BO join date), your sample size of normal is from 2019-2023. That is a really bad calibration period of what to generally expect in this hobby. The rarest high-end cards always end up becoming an exorbitant share of that player's market cap. Look at Pujols/Ichiro - their non-gem base is dirt dirt cheap and ~95% of their market cap value comes from high-end. That is the eventuality with Shohei as well.

So at this point you expect high end to go up and up...and low end to go down and down indefinitely?

Assuming Ohtani accomplishes everything you think he will through out his career (5 MVPs, greatest player of his generation, etc) what do you think his #700 base RC card PSA 10 and raw will end up as after he retires and beyond?

Also, isn't Ohtani's market already larger than both Pujols and Ichiro? Shouldn't his market continue to grow as times goes on?

[Qubits]

I think a big problem with Ohtani low end rookies is that there are just so many of them. Even if Ohtani achieves everything we could ever hope for him, that oversupply will put a cap on the future value of those cards.

Heck, a PSA 9 Topps flagship Ichiro rookie is still only about a $80 card and that set was far more condition sensitive than 2018 and had a lower print run.

If I had to guess? If Ohtani ends his career as the all time goat, a #700 flagship base Ohtani PSA 9 will likely cap out at $100-150 in 2024 dollars when its all said and done, possibly even less.

The most gains in value in the long run are made by the absolute best players, and amongst those players the most gains are again made by the absolute best cards of those players. (By best here, I'm speaking in collect-ability rather than how great they are at baseball). This has proven true in vintage and will likely also be true for modern when modern is as old as vintage is now.