2024-25 Prospecting MEGA hype thread.

[kipgen]

The collection expands!

Got some nice deals on a couple non-rookie select parallels and golds (both on the right /10), still missing a tiger

[sportzluvr1]

Originally Posted by kipgen

The collection expands!

Got some nice deals on a couple non-rookie select parallels and golds (both on the right /10), still missing a tiger

Awesome grabs. If you ever want a nice lot of rookie+ stuff pm me and I’ll see what I can do.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by sportzluvr1

Awesome grabs. If you ever want a nice lot of rookie+ stuff pm me and I’ll see what I can do.

Will do, appreciate it

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I think Sengun is much closer to Sabonis than Jokic. Good for real life basketball, horrible for card prices

I ended up buying a Sabonis rookie case hit after reading this for under 13. Print run is around 15.

Yeah, I can't see Sengun going much higher. But he's a fun player and he'll get better, he's not that bad of an investment.

[Bradley5280]

Just curious but when does a player go from prospect to “regular” player? In general do y’all consider it to be based on age or amount of seasons in the league? As an example I’ll say Coby White who is 24 but going on his 6th season whereas Jaime Jaquez is 23 but coming off his rookie year. Do they both count as prospects still or does CW not qualify despite similar age based on years in the league?

[ronaldo943]

Originally Posted by Bradley5280

Just curious but when does a player go from prospect to “regular” player? In general do y’all consider it to be based on age or amount of seasons in the league? As an example I’ll say Coby White who is 24 but going on his 6th season whereas Jaime Jaquez is 23 but coming off his rookie year. Do they both count as prospects still or does CW not qualify despite similar age based on years in the league?

I think it’s all personal opinion. From this thread it seems anyone 24 or under could be considered a prospect. The thing with Coby is that his rookie cards have been available for 5 years now so I think his hobby ceiling/floor are at a mature stage, while JJJ hobby ceiling/floor is just starting.

[Nomad]

The "hobby ceiling/floor are at a mature stage" is another way of saying that they have solidified around one version of the player, to use the metaphor of the butterfly, the caterpillar's exoskeleton, or chrysalis. That is the version of the price seen until a team or player breaks through.

Prospect is a phase of unrealistic expectation. If you are very very lucky, the prospecting phase never ends. But even then the best time to get in is before the actual ring, unless they are on the road to getting multiples (and who knows there).

Keep in mind that a simple visit to the quarters is enough to be considered a breakout on some teams, such as Knicks with Bruh. If the Spurs make it that far it will also be considered such. Mavs and Donc. Wolves and Anthony. Grizz and Ja, let's see.

With other teams, only a ring gets respect. Those are teams that might have a tentpole, but who it is in some sense arbitrary, as they are about collective effort.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by ronaldo943

I think it’s all personal opinion. From this thread it seems anyone 24 or under could be considered a prospect. The thing with Coby is that his rookie cards have been available for 5 years now so I think his hobby ceiling/floor are at a mature stage, while JJJ hobby ceiling/floor is just starting.

I agree, I think 24-25 is really the upper limit of being a prospect. When you're 4 years into your career, you're almost always "what you will be" and just round out skills on the margins.

I think the only opportunity to catch the Coby White hype was last offseason. He's definitely too far into his career to be a prospect. I think it's more about how long you've been in the league vs raw age

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by Bradley5280

Just curious but when does a player go from prospect to “regular” player? In general do y’all consider it to be based on age or amount of seasons in the league? As an example I’ll say Coby White who is 24 but going on his 6th season whereas Jaime Jaquez is 23 but coming off his rookie year. Do they both count as prospects still or does CW not qualify despite similar age based on years in the league?

I think it all depends on how solidified the player seems in a current level of performance/whether or not it seems like they've plateaued at their current level of performance. SGA is a good example of this, he's been in the league six years but it's been a steady building of performance year over year and his prices have reflected that.

Coby White is a bit of an interesting case since he had a couple years of mediocre performance and then he seemed to really improve last year, so it'll all depend on what he does from this point forward, but again generally for me it's all about the steady building of momentum that eventually tapers off as a player realizes their true potential.

[Bradley5280]

Yeah so I guess with CW it’s a somewhat interesting case just because after 4 years he almost doubled across his entire stat line just this past year (9.7 - 19.1 ppg). I think it begs the question of is there any more room to go or is this the best season he’ll have as a pro? Just curious, I didn’t buy anything big but I’m a UNC fan and it was such a dramatic jump in scoring last year that I’m curious if he has a little further up to go! It was just an interesting “prospect” comparison I guess. If you didn’t look at years in the league and just age/stats it’d be a different story but I think prospecting is a bit subjective too which makes it fun!

[jcardstore]

Very few things can move cards of vets besides MVPs and FMVPs

There's very little money to be made in buying non-prospects

[Bradley5280]

Originally Posted by kipgen

I think it all depends on how solidified the player seems in a current level of performance/whether or not it seems like they've plateaued at their current level of performance. SGA is a good example of this, he's been in the league six years but it's been a steady building of performance year over year and his prices have reflected that.

Coby White is a bit of an interesting case since he had a couple years of mediocre performance and then he seemed to really improve last year, so it'll all depend on what he does from this point forward, but again generally for me it's all about the steady building of momentum that eventually tapers off as a player realizes their true potential.

Lol my bad, I had typed out my response before you sent yours and by the time I got around to hitting send realized you said basically the same thing so I didn’t intentionally copy you. Agreed though, just a strange case and I’m not sure what to make of it especially with Demar traded to the kings

[jcardstore]

If you look at Coby specifically, even if he averaged 22ppg next year I can't see it moving the needle.

Bulls are going to be horrible, he's not an all-star caliber player, there's really no upside catalyst for his cards

[Bradley5280]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

If you look at Coby specifically, even if he averaged 22ppg next year I can't see it moving the needle.

Bulls are going to be horrible, he's not an all-star caliber player, there's really no upside catalyst for his cards

Good point but what if he averaged 25 ppg with Demar gone and they got a Christmas miracle trip to the playoffs? Unlikely which is why I’m not buying much of him but still fun to consider what could happen

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Bradley5280

Good point but what if he averaged 25 ppg with Demar gone and they got a Christmas miracle trip to the playoffs? Unlikely which is why I’m not buying much of him but still fun to consider what could happen

They are going to be a bottom 5 team next season

[sportzluvr1]

Had people call me crazy when i held my Jokic Silver Prizm 10's at $400.

He was too slow, couldn't guard, Played in Denver, and played an out of style position.

Glad I held.

[sportzluvr1]

Bought them for about $120 per.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by sportzluvr1

Had people call me crazy when i held my Jokic Silver Prizm 10's at $400.

He was too slow, couldn't guard, Played in Denver, and played an out of style position.

Glad I held.

confirmation bias

All Sengun needs is to be a multi time MVP and take the Rockets to a championship.

good luck

[sportzluvr1]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

confirmation bias

All Sengun needs is to be a multi time MVP and take the Rockets to a championship.

good luck

Speaking more in generalities. But you are correct it's a long shot for anybody to reach those heights.

Confirmation bias keeps me buying

I honestly did so well with buying Jokic for basically pennies that ever since then it's all been fun and games for me. People forget that you could buy raw Jokic silver prizms for less than $12 delivered at a point in time. Wild stuff.

[kipgen]

Any thoughts on Brandin Podziemski? A lot of his cards can be had for cheap and he performed well his rookie year

His main downside is being stuck behind Curry of course but the Warriors seem to be moving away from competing so who's to say how much longer that'll be the case...

[The_Reverend]

With few exceptions exceptions, if the player is not likely to be the 1/2 scoring option or is in a big market, prospecting said guy is not likely to be strong. One of my prospects became a likely breakout because of the team makeup. The team lost 2 high volume/ minute players and his offense will be on display.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by sportzluvr1

Speaking more in generalities. But you are correct it's a long shot for anybody to reach those heights.

Confirmation bias keeps me buying

I honestly did so well with buying Jokic for basically pennies that ever since then it's all been fun and games for me. People forget that you could buy raw Jokic silver prizms for less than $12 delivered at a point in time. Wild stuff.

The Jokic ascension is not only crazy from where he was as a player but his cards also had kind of a perfect storm.

Nobody was collecting him, then he starts really blowing up and then covid takes everything to the moon.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by sportzluvr1

Speaking more in generalities. But you are correct it's a long shot for anybody to reach those heights.

Confirmation bias keeps me buying

I honestly did so well with buying Jokic for basically pennies that ever since then it's all been fun and games for me. People forget that you could buy raw Jokic silver prizms for less than $12 delivered at a point in time. Wild stuff.

I think they were lower than that. I remember selling a Ruby Wave on COMC for like 6 bucks and being pretty happy about it.

Originally Posted by jcardstore

The Jokic ascension is not only crazy from where he was as a player but his cards also had kind of a perfect storm.

Nobody was collecting him, then he starts really blowing up and then covid takes everything to the moon.

Not to mention supply was much lower then AND Joker wasn't included in a lot of sets. He didn't even have a NT RPA.

[boxbuster7]

Actually Jokic didn't have his pump till after covid - it actually helped that his cards didn't go bat#$%^ during the pandemic - more sustainable growth

[ronaldo943]

Originally Posted by Nomad

The "hobby ceiling/floor are at a mature stage" is another way of saying that they have solidified around one version of the player, to use the metaphor of the butterfly, the caterpillar's exoskeleton, or chrysalis. That is the version of the price seen until a team or player breaks through.

Thank you Nomad.