Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Zero chance. Lots of guys have been wishing for this to happen for many years and the truth of the matter is, it will only continue to get better and better from here. All of the shows have been doing very well with great attendance and there's no reason for it to slow down now.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/young-art...151112323.html

The young artists market sounds just like what happened to sports cards since 2020. Many were in denial.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

https://www.yahoo.com/news/young-art...151112323.html

The young artists market sounds just like what happened to sports cards since 2020. Many were in denial.

LOL. Who knew there was such a thing? That sounds like a flash in the pan thing that happened once. Whereas cards have been around for decades and even the worst of economic times never killed it. The young artist's blah blah is nowhere equivalent to the history of Topps.

[oldgoldy97]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...&highlight=Top

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

LOL. Who knew there was such a thing? That sounds like a flash in the pan thing that happened once. Whereas cards have been around for decades and even the worst of economic times never killed it. The young artist's blah blah is nowhere equivalent to the history of Topps.

It’s more like project 2020, but I found it interesting since many sports cards have tanked about 90% in value since the pandemic pump as well.

Many lives were altered by the collectibles market both positively and negatively, depending on how you prepared for the possibility of a crash.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...&highlight=Top

Yes, many similarities to that as well.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It’s more like project 2020, but I found it interesting since many sports cards have tanked about 90% in value since the pandemic pump as well.

Many lives were altered by the collectibles market both positively and negatively, depending on how you prepared for the possibility of a crash.

To your point, if prices have already crashed 90% then why are there so many who believe that the worst is yet to come?

The last two crashes of 2010 and 2014 had very notable markers leading up to them, the biggest being plummeting wax prices. And folks knew it was coming when prices dropped and places like BO were putting everything on sale. The writing was on the wall. We are actually seeing the opposite right now where desirable wax is still going up after release. To get from A to Z, a whole lot has to happen.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

To your point, if prices have already crashed 90% then why are there so many who believe that the worst is yet to come?

The last two crashes of 2010 and 2014 had very notable markers leading up to them, the biggest being plummeting wax prices. And folks knew it was coming when prices dropped and places like BO were putting everything on sale. The writing was on the wall. We are actually seeing the opposite right now where desirable wax is still going up after release. To get from A to Z, a whole lot has to happen.

Agree.

Chrome was hot at the show in Bangor (I know, small sample size) Elly, Witt and the usual players were hot.

I was also looking for Judge, but only saw some base rookies.

Imo, the market has cooled slightly, but still overall is strong.

[KhalDrogo]

Singles prices of legitimate hobby good players and sets have been steadily moving up the past few months.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

To your point, if prices have already crashed 90% then why are there so many who believe that the worst is yet to come?

The last two crashes of 2010 and 2014 had very notable markers leading up to them, the biggest being plummeting wax prices. And folks knew it was coming when prices dropped and places like BO were putting everything on sale. The writing was on the wall. We are actually seeing the opposite right now where desirable wax is still going up after release. To get from A to Z, a whole lot has to happen.

I don't think we're at the point where the bottom is going to drop again and we'll see a 90% tank in prices across the board - it's already happened in many sectors.

I do believe a slow grind will continue if the number of new collectors/new money doesn't outpace the massive amounts of product that continues to be added to the pool on a weekly basis. Many critics allude to the junk wax era of the early 90's and we may reach a similar type of excess-fueled gradual slowdown. Artificial scarcity will catch up at some point in time.

Of course, it's easy to point to specifics in the sports cards market. Even in a stock market crash, 5-10% of the stocks increase in price. The rare collectibles market is easy to manipulate when folks don't need to take a loss.

It will be interesting to see how sports cards react when interest rates trend back down to the pace of inflation.

[mogwai316]

.....

[justrun7]

The Fishtown Show in Philly was packed on Saturday. I was unsure what the turnout would be with Fanatics and East Coast National both going on 2 hours north but it did not seem to stop the crowd. Every table seemed crowded and it didn't seem like those shows impacted attendance noticeably. The smaller Bordentown show was very light today due to the shows though.

[DaveTaplin]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

I picked these up at the Bangor show yesterday. Not the best picture. Clayton Kershaw 2008 stadium club auto and Elly 2003 pro debut green auto # to 99.

Overall a pretty quiet show but I was very happy

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

I sold you the Kershaw. Nice to finally meet you. Seen you on here for years.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by DaveTaplin

I sold you the Kershaw. Nice to finally meet you. Seen you on here for years.

I appreciate you trusting me and letting me pay you later on the Kershaw!


Hope to see you at the next show.

[ksemmel]

Went to a pretty large 2 day a show today and man was it rough

Summary:
Prices:
Tanner McKey /10 select auto priced at $200
Brady Colorblast priceed raw at $600


30ish% of dealers had no prices on any cards
50% percent of all dealers had graded with beat up raw
75/25 modern to vintage
Saw people going up to dealers all day asking if they were buying, only to want 10% over on every card
Some dealers said they had an amazing Saturday and some said it was very rough. You could tell the dealers with the best prices were cleaned out yesterday, and they were down to relatively empty cases

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Zero chance. Lots of guys have been wishing for this to happen for many years and the truth of the matter is, it will only continue to get better and better from here. All of the shows have been doing very well with great attendance and there's no reason for it to slow down now.

oh you sweet sweet child of summer

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Whereas cards have been around for decades and even the worst of economic times never killed it.

there's been quite a few bankruptcies and buyouts for card companies in recent years

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

there's been quite a few bankruptcies and buyouts for card companies in recent years

and the cards are still here!

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

there's been quite a few bankruptcies and buyouts for card companies in recent years

absolutely, and cards have survived through it all.


I think kahl said it already: The hot/quality players will have a following, even in tough times.

[solt0131]

As I've said before, a lot of opinions here are from guys who live in the "online" only world of the hobby and never go to a show. I try my best to get info from all aspects of the hobby including bigger and smaller shows, the online portion and also the hobby shop sector.

I live in the "cards $5 or less" portion so regardless of what happens at the high end portion, there has always been constant demand for my area for a long, long time.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by solt0131

As I've said before, a lot of opinions here are from guys who live in the "online" only world of the hobby and never go to a show.

The vast majority of people in this hobby do not go to shows. And the majority that do go to shows are only going to one here and there. Not regularly. That's whats so incredible about attendance records at shows. If that many new people are going to the National and Fanatics show think of how many new people are actually out there.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by solt0131

As I've said before, a lot of opinions here are from guys who live in the "online" only world of the hobby and never go to a show. I try my best to get info from all aspects of the hobby including bigger and smaller shows, the online portion and also the hobby shop sector.

I live in the "cards $5 or less" portion so regardless of what happens at the high end portion, there has always been constant demand for my area for a long, long time.

Dollar cards are the foundation of the hobby and will never go down in price even with economic downturns.

I own five figure cards and like to follow that market closely.

[jeff152380]

I set up at the Fanatic Fest and the results were better then expected. There was far more people looking to buy over sell. My value boxes tripled my cost to set up at the show.
I sold Low, Mid and High End all show long. Its not just about the money made it was the activity, attendance and interest. This show was not all breakers buying for repack. It was customer after customer. I only made 2 sales to repackers. I left this show thinking I want to do it again.......

I also own a shop in a small state and i have never been busier.....

The hobby is in a good place....

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The vast majority of people in this hobby do not go to shows. And the majority that do go to shows are only going to one here and there. Not regularly.

And to a large extent, that's a function of popular patterns.

There are a huge number of good shows every month in the Upper Midwest/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions.

But get south of the Ohio River and west of the Appalachians, good shows are a lot scarcer. Once you're west of the Mississippi it's a virtual wasteland except for maybe the big cities in Texas and LA.

[Dbacksbaseball]

I think things can be simultaneously true. My opinion has changed a lot on this the past 18 months or so.

The Good.
-Interest has maintained a strong level. It dipped off a touch after covid, but it didnt fall through the floor as many suspected. It dipped and held.
- High end stuff has done the same, were off those peaks from covid, but it never floored like many suspected. Were probably in the best 5 year period overall for high end stuff.
-There are great speculative buying opportunities on Singles, because after the ceiling cards, there is a big fall off in realized prices. The singles market is generally soft outside of grand slam stuff, and elite top of the mountain players. Even good players with HOF track records/Trajectories can be had cost efficiently across all sports.

The Bad
- Its becoming an elitist hobby from a ripping POV. EV is at an all time low in terms of ripping. There is simply no value in it and that sucks because that is supposed to be the best part of it right?
-That has opened the door for breaking to get out of control.
-Which has in turn has left the printing press running.


I do think there is still regression at some level to come but I dont think its near term, and I do think 30-40 years from now we will look back on this era, as a junk wax era. But there are definitely way to do well in this kind of market still. A lot of it now starts with singles purchases though.

[JMStang]

At least for the DFW area TX is doing just fine. We have regular shows that rotate between the north and south parts of the Metroplex throughout the year. Had a new smaller one that started Saturday and was packed. They already have 2 other shows lined up in the coming months. There are also about 5 small shops a short distance from us in n Frisco. Nothing particularly of the Metroplex.

https://www.dallascardshow.com




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