First Buzz: 2024 Topps Pro Debut baseball cards

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

That checklist will absolutely spike the price. Skenes has not been in many sets since getting the call. Limited RC will continue to drive the price of other cards. Having a bunch of guys that are already in the majors and having good years is bad for the price of this product.

Look at previous years for this release. Strong classes push the price up.

Most of us that love this set love it because we build the set. And we love it because the breakers tend to stay away. Having it loaded with big name rookies increases the chance the breakers get into it.

These won't be rookie cards. Will the demand still be there with collectors knowing they can get these players in major league sets this year? I don't collect this set, so I honestly don't know, but typically minor league releases, even of stars, don't garner much hobby attention. Do strong overall checklists push the price up of these, or has it been strong minor league prospect classes that drive prices? Genuinely curious.

[phil]

Originally Posted by whitmm

That checklist will absolutely spike the price. Skenes has not been in many sets since getting the call. Limited RC will continue to drive the price of other cards. Having a bunch of guys that are already in the majors and having good years is bad for the price of this product.

Look at previous years for this release. Strong classes push the price up.

Most of us that love this set love it because we build the set. And we love it because the breakers tend to stay away. Having it loaded with big name rookies increases the chance the breakers get into it.

previous years have all been discounted in November before going up the following spring, hopefully delay will help that happen again this year

[FatButcher]

I'm pretty sure between delays and breakers getting hot and bothered by Chrome Basketball and Composite Football we should avoid the breakers gaze. Elly-mania was pretty strong last year and prices seemed to stay under control.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by phil

previous years have all been discounted in November before going up the following spring, hopefully delay will help that happen again this year

Previous years didn't have this many guys already in the majors

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by FatButcher

I'm pretty sure between delays and breakers getting hot and bothered by Chrome Basketball and Composite Football we should avoid the breakers gaze. Elly-mania was pretty strong last year and prices seemed to stay under control.

2023 Pro Debut came on in mid-October. 2023 was also the second year Elly was in the product.

I did very well selling an Elly auto from the 2022 product in July of last year, when Elly-mania was at its peak.

[VandyCards]

No new names. At least one instance where the player never even played for the team pictured (Kiefer Lord).

Wouldn’t shock me if these cards are all photoshopped. I’m old enough to remember when PD had names outside of the previous years bowman/draft, and had actual photos of the players wearing the uniforms pictured.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[msink28]

This is not much of a breakers product, very few cards that could sell for over $500. Could easily rip a case of this and not pull a card over $150.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

These won't be rookie cards. Will the demand still be there with collectors knowing they can get these players in major league sets this year? I don't collect this set, so I honestly don't know, but typically minor league releases, even of stars, don't garner much hobby attention. Do strong overall checklists push the price up of these, or has it been strong minor league prospect classes that drive prices? Genuinely curious.

I didn't say these were rookie cards.

Pro Debut is one of those perfect sweet spot sets. Because it avoids the prospectors and it avoids the rookie craze. The price jumps aren't going to be comparable to those of Bowman and Topps Chrome, but there is a jump based on guys making it to the majors. Pro Debut usually can avoid the craze because most of the guys aren't in the majors at set release.

When I mentioned Skenes, there is still a bit of push of people chasing all of his cards. I've seen plenty of Tik Tok breakers opening ungodly amounts of Wild Card products chasing Skenes cards.

Those that like the set don't want it to garner a lot of hobby attention. Hobby attention drives the price up. Cards still sell pretty well, for what the product is. 2022 PD Elly autos are still fetching a few hundred dollars for raw base.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

I didn't say these were rookie cards.

I didn't say you did.

I was pointing out that no rookie logo and minor league uniforms and team names would seem to temper the demand for those guys who already have major league rookie cards.

I'm just questioning whether having these guys in the product will push the price up as much as you suggest. These are late minor league cards for guys already called up. They don't tend to garner much demand. It's usually the prospects earlier in their careers who seem to drive this product, much like Bowman. Yes, Elly cards in PD sell well. But not nearly well as his other cards. So it may not be as terrible as you think for collectors hoping the price stays lower.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I didn't say you did.

I was pointing out that no rookie logo and minor league uniforms and team names would seem to temper the demand for those guys who already have major league rookie cards.

I'm just questioning whether having these guys in the product will push the price up as much as you suggest. These are late minor league cards for guys already called up. They don't tend to garner much demand. It's usually the prospects earlier in their careers who seem to drive this product, much like Bowman. Yes, Elly cards in PD sell well. But not nearly well as his other cards. So it may not be as terrible as you think for collectors hoping the price stays lower.

As I said, this product is in a sweet spot between prospects and rookies. And the price boosts shouldn't be compared to either.

2023 prices stayed low for quite a while, even with a very strong prospect class. But now that the Jacksons are in the bigs, as well as Elly, Winn, Caminero, Wells, Brooks Lee, Westburg, Jasson, and Gelof, the prices has jumped. Yes, $125 for a hobby box is cheap compared to MLB sets or Bowman, but higher than all the other years of PD. And none of the big 3 have jumbo boxes for sale.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

As I said, this product is in a sweet spot between prospects and rookies. And the price boosts shouldn't be compared to either.

2023 prices stayed low for quite a while, even with a very strong prospect class. But now that the Jacksons are in the bigs, as well as Elly, Winn, Caminero, Wells, Brooks Lee, Westburg, Jasson, and Gelof, the prices has jumped. Yes, $125 for a hobby box is cheap compared to MLB sets or Bowman, but higher than all the other years of PD. And none of the big 3 have jumbo boxes for sale.

I hope the price and the demand stays low for you.

[Badgers0821]

Originally Posted by whitmm

The legends auto checklist seems weak. Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Jayson Werth, Scott Rolen, and Pedro Martinez.

In minors legends, the checklist is never MLB legend strong.

[Badgers0821]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I didn't say you did.

I was pointing out that no rookie logo and minor league uniforms and team names would seem to temper the demand for those guys who already have major league rookie cards.

I'm just questioning whether having these guys in the product will push the price up as much as you suggest. These are late minor league cards for guys already called up. They don't tend to garner much demand. It's usually the prospects earlier in their careers who seem to drive this product, much like Bowman. Yes, Elly cards in PD sell well. But not nearly well as his other cards. So it may not be as terrible as you think for collectors hoping the price stays lower.

This product is for people who want prospect cards but don't want to pay Bowman prices. There is a pretty strong market for this product, even with the sticker autos. Also, with more inclusion of chrome cards, I believe the interest will only grow.

[PoPCulture]

I find it sorta amusing that Langford spent 1 week with Round Rock and 1 of those 6 games that he played will be forever immortalized on his only Pro Debut card. And these are releasing after almost a full season in the bigs…

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Badgers0821

In minors legends, the checklist is never MLB legend strong.

I know. It is kind of interesting, as most of the guys wouldn't even be considered minor league legends.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by whitmm

That checklist will absolutely spike the price. Skenes has not been in many sets since getting the call. Limited RC will continue to drive the price of other cards. Having a bunch of guys that are already in the majors and having good years is bad for the price of this product.

Look at previous years for this release. Strong classes push the price up.

Most of us that love this set love it because we build the set. And we love it because the breakers tend to stay away. Having it loaded with big name rookies increases the chance the breakers get into it.

I'm not sure I 100% agree with you. The folks chasing Skenes (and to a lesser extent, the Jacksons & Langford) have plenty of products to chase them in. Skenes-mania is still flowing but it's not peaking like it was a month or two ago.

And most importantly, there just aren't many actual elite MiLB prospects who haven't debuted in MLB in this product - mainly because there isn't a ton of elite MiLB talent right now.

Quick glance through and top prospects would appear to be Jenkins, Clark, Miller, Basallo, Anthony and maybe De Paula/Walcott/Celesten/Emerson as tier 2. I like all those guys just fine but less splashy names than years past IMO.

[PoPCulture]

Hey guys, I’m looking for any advice on what I should do when I pull the Skenes Superfractor or Foilfractor. Thanks in advance!

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by BabaORiley

I'm not sure I 100% agree with you. The folks chasing Skenes (and to a lesser extent, the Jacksons & Langford) have plenty of products to chase them in. Skenes-mania is still flowing but it's not peaking like it was a month or two ago.

And most importantly, there just aren't many actual elite MiLB prospects who haven't debuted in MLB in this product - mainly because there isn't a ton of elite MiLB talent right now.

Quick glance through and top prospects would appear to be Jenkins, Clark, Miller, Basallo, Anthony and maybe De Paula/Walcott/Celesten/Emerson as tier 2. I like all those guys just fine but less splashy names than years past IMO.

You don't think that those guys already being in the majors and performing well isn't going to bump the price of this product? That certainly is an opinion.

2023 didn't get a bump in price because guys were tearing in up in the minors, it got the bump because those guys were getting called up. This product flows more like flagship than it does Bowman.

It might sound weird, but Pro Debut isn't a prospect set in sense of Bowman being a prospect set.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by whitmm

You don't think that those guys already being in the majors and performing well isn't going to bump the price of this product? That certainly is an opinion.

2023 didn't get a bump in price because guys were tearing in up in the minors, it got the bump because those guys were getting called up. This product flows more like flagship than it does Bowman.

It might sound weird, but Pro Debut isn't a prospect set in sense of Bowman being a prospect set.

In 2018, Soto and Acuna were both called up and playing well when Pro Debut was released, IIRC

In 2019, Tatis, Vladdy, Alonso and even Eloy Jimenez were in MLB and buzzing.

2020 and 2021 were admittedly pretty bleak for MLB talent though Wander-mania was in MLB when 2021 released, I think. If not, he was on the verge.

I don't recall any of those getting price bumps until well into the following MLB season.

I'm fully aware of the ebbs and flows of Pro Debut - it's my favorite yearly set and I've locked down a case of Jumbo already - but these cases are already inflated in price. I paid $749/$799 for my 2023 cases. We're already sitting 25% higher and still in DELAY/Pre-release hell.

I'm holding out on Hobby in hopes Topps releases some D2C cases at normal prices. Otherwise, this will be the first year I haven't purchased multiple cases.

[auctionjmm]

I think this discussion starts and ends with 2024 Donruss. A base, unlicensed Rated Prospect Skenes is still a $5-$8 card even though this was released over a month ago. Any parallel beyond that is $20+. Numbered Prizm autos are $500+.

If we're comparing Pro Debut to a Donruss Prospect card, I have to believe Pro Debut wins. Whether or not this moves the needle on wax is yet to be seen but for someone like me who opens this stuff and builds sets, I think the value add here probably makes it one of the best PD buys in recent memory if we are talking release date prices.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by BabaORiley

In 2018, Soto and Acuna were both called up and playing well when Pro Debut was released, IIRC

In 2019, Tatis, Vladdy, Alonso and even Eloy Jimenez were in MLB and buzzing.

2020 and 2021 were admittedly pretty bleak for MLB talent though Wander-mania was in MLB when 2021 released, I think. If not, he was on the verge.

I don't recall any of those getting price bumps until well into the following MLB season.

I'm fully aware of the ebbs and flows of Pro Debut - it's my favorite yearly set and I've locked down a case of Jumbo already - but these cases are already inflated in price. I paid $749/$799 for my 2023 cases. We're already sitting 25% higher and still in DELAY/Pre-release hell.

I'm holding out on Hobby in hopes Topps releases some D2C cases at normal prices. Otherwise, this will be the first year I haven't purchased multiple cases.

There was a major shift in the hobby in 2020.

PD was also an early season release back then, with May releases in both 2018 and 2019. You don't think that if the product came out in September, when you had all those guys battling for ROY that the price wouldn't have jumped shortly after release?

2023 is tricky because the product came out in October. (And Elly had been ice cold). It was under $100 most of the off season, it's now $125.

What do you think the release day price will be on 2024?

[BabaORiley]

I didn't remember it being an early release in 2018-19. I bought cases in late 2018 for roughly the cost of 2018 update cases at the time - and yeah, I know these were the good old days. This was well after Soto, Acuna and Gleyber had set the hobby abuzz.

I do recall 2020 or 2021 Jumbo cases being priced too high at release because of, I presume, Wander and the stimmies.

But checking my pricing last year and seeing $749/$799 had me expecting something similar this year.

I love, love, love this product and I guess I'll adjust my strategy from building sets and selling a few hot autos to keep color/chrome/sets to something more "Sell Skenes ASAP" based.

My intention wasn't to argue with your take on Skenes/Jacksons other than to say I feel like that's already baked into the prices relative to last year and I HOPE we don't have that type of situation.

I'm a big fan of TPD when a player has a TPD card in the same year/design as his flagship RC (2011 Trout, 2018, Acuna & Soto as just some examples). So I'm excited for Skenes, Chourio, Holliday, Langford TPD cards here.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by BabaORiley

I didn't remember it being an early release in 2018-19. I bought cases in late 2018 for roughly the cost of 2018 update cases at the time - and yeah, I know these were the good old days. This was well after Soto, Acuna and Gleyber had set the hobby abuzz.

I do recall 2020 or 2021 Jumbo cases being priced too high at release because of, I presume, Wander and the stimmies.

But checking my pricing last year and seeing $749/$799 had me expecting something similar this year.

I love, love, love this product and I guess I'll adjust my strategy from building sets and selling a few hot autos to keep color/chrome/sets to something more "Sell Skenes ASAP" based.

My intention wasn't to argue with your take on Skenes/Jacksons other than to say I feel like that's already baked into the prices relative to last year and I HOPE we don't have that type of situation.

I'm a big fan of TPD when a player has a TPD card in the same year/design as his flagship RC (2011 Trout, 2018, Acuna & Soto as just some examples). So I'm excited for Skenes, Chourio, Holliday, Langford TPD cards here.

I'm chalking the 25% increases of the pre-sale price up Fanatics boosting the prices on everything anyway. I remember the bump the product originally had with the Jacksons and Jones being in it, but the prices stayed pretty level.

I could see the price of this realistically jumping to $115-$120 for hobby after release. That's another 25-35% increase on top of the already increased prices.

Even with the price bump, the strategy of building sets and selling a few hot autos should still work.

And I don't know, I'm sure a lot of people would love to be able to buy a case of Update for the price of PD these days.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by whitmm

I'm chalking the 25% increases of the pre-sale price up Fanatics boosting the prices on everything anyway. I remember the bump the product originally had with the Jacksons and Jones being in it, but the prices stayed pretty level.

I could see the price of this realistically jumping to $115-$120 for hobby after release. That's another 25-35% increase on top of the already increased prices.

Even with the price bump, the strategy of building sets and selling a few hot autos should still work.

And I don't know, I'm sure a lot of people would love to be able to buy a case of Update for the price of PD these days.

Man, '18 Update was selling for something like $550 a case on BO BF deals that year, notable not only because it's turned out to be one of the all time "obvious best deals" but also because at least one guy STILL managed to lose his mind over the lack of silver packs with the BO deal.

[base set]

Originally Posted by PoPCulture

Hey guys, I’m looking for any advice on what I should do when I pull the Skenes Superfractor or Foilfractor. Thanks in advance!

That’s easy. You start a new thread pretending you don’t want to sell, but you just don’t know what to do, so… now you need advice.


My LCS is offering Topps Chrome Basketball at $475 for a “Hobby” - maybe that will attract all the Vega$ money instead of this.