Topps Mercury: Victor Wembanyama

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by crdbored

The worst offender is that base/dual auto spot. The dual autos are rare hits and i've seen 10 cases open with straight up base cards in those spots.
Also the insert spot is brutal for current prices.

Yesterday pre-sale prices were decent (albeit expensive) before prices went up after people saw the relics were date-specific game used.

Do you mean prices of breaks or box prices have gone up? From what Im seeing, box prices have gone down. I know most on here think this is an amazing product but I think Im just going to stay away. Probably regret it in a few months but not going to try and save my loses on other Wembanyama cards.

Most that want Mercury via EQL should get them if it's only 1 or 2 boxes per entry. Just like with logofractor the other day, there is no resale value on these right now. Bots will not be going for them.

[GuacamoleCards]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Do you mean prices of breaks or box prices have gone up? From what Im seeing, box prices have gone down. I know most on here think this is an amazing product but I think Im just going to stay away. Probably regret it in a few months but not going to try and save my loses on other Wembanyama cards.

Most that want Mercury via EQL should get them if it's only 1 or 2 boxes per entry. Just like with logofractor the other day, there is no resale value on these right now. Bots will not be going for them.

It bums me out, but I tend to agree. I bet there are still 1000-1500 boxes going into EQL tomorrow and with a limit of 1/person, I think most who want them will score. I'm on the fence on whether I want to just cut my losses at two boxes or try to chase by getting a third box and lowering my average cost on these.

What a kick to the nuts this has been.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GuacamoleCards

It bums me out, but I tend to agree. I bet there are still 1000-1500 boxes going into EQL tomorrow and with a limit of 1/person, I think most who want them will score. I'm on the fence on whether I want to just cut my losses at two boxes or try to chase by getting a third box and lowering my average cost on these.

What a kick to the nuts this has been.

Regardless of what happens, it still boggles my mind that anyone would buy any product priced over MSRP from BO and friends for their listed price. Has there been a presale/at release hobby product over MSRP the last 4 years that you couldn't find cheaper from somewhere else?

[ThatGuyPal]

How are you guys out on a product that isn't even out yet? lol relax, things will be fine. I don't get pre-ordering from other sites either though, at least initially. Maybe it's backward thinking but even if the drop was limited I imagine the ones super desperate to buy this would find a way through EQL, will some strike out? sure. With the amount on other sites though as well as breaks to fill the itch, I wouldn't picture prices rising immediately after the fact if anything I'd assume they go closer to Topps price as not every LCS even ones allocated this want to sit on $30,000 worth of product for example. Not everyone has a card whale in town or uses online (assuming most getting this do however). That's just my opinion I think everyone buying before it was even released would of done better waiting but even then I don't think if you're smart you're gonna lose thousands.

[crdbored]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Do you mean prices of breaks or box prices have gone up? From what Im seeing, box prices have gone down. I know most on here think this is an amazing product but I think Im just going to stay away. Probably regret it in a few months but not going to try and save my loses on other Wembanyama cards.

Most that want Mercury via EQL should get them if it's only 1 or 2 boxes per entry. Just like with logofractor the other day, there is no resale value on these right now. Bots will not be going for them.

Individual break prices. For example, lots of breakers had the 3 chrome parallels as one spot for $400-500 at presale. Now they're up to $599+.

As far as boxes, the product itself is kind of boring. On the relics you see a lot of single color "napkins." They are game used with the date so people shouldn't downplay that. It's a big deal, but there are about 3000 relic autos so it makes sense most of them are single color relics.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by crdbored

Individual break prices. For example, lots of breakers had the 3 chrome parallels as one spot for $400-500 at presale. Now they're up to $599+.

As far as boxes, the product itself is kind of boring. On the relics you see a lot of single color "napkins." They are game used with the date so people shouldn't downplay that. It's a big deal, but there are about 3000 relic autos so it makes sense most of them are single color relics.

To be fair, that spot was under priced compared to everything else. Breakers adjust their prices pretty quickly to whats selling quick and what’s sitting. Good example being the two base card spot being way too much.

[GuacamoleCards]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Regardless of what happens, it still boggles my mind that anyone would buy any product priced over MSRP from BO and friends for their listed price. Has there been a presale/at release hobby product over MSRP the last 4 years that you couldn't find cheaper from somewhere else?

Well, I convinced myself that there would be more hype and that frankly the product would be better. Granted, the pre-release photos were of the hits, but based on those I thought we'd see better than napkin patches. You'd think they'd have enough game-worn material than to do better than that.

I genuinely thought this would sell out instantly and we'd see boxes trading at 15-20k shortly after release. Looks like I may have been dead wrong on that. Costly mistake, but lesson learned I guess.

[nextlevel10]

Originally Posted by GuacamoleCards

Well, I convinced myself that there would be more hype and that frankly the product would be better. Granted, the pre-release photos were of the hits, but based on those I thought we'd see better than napkin patches. You'd think they'd have enough game-worn material than to do better than that.

I genuinely thought this would sell out instantly and we'd see boxes trading at 15-20k shortly after release. Looks like I may have been dead wrong on that. Costly mistake, but lesson learned I guess.

You are aware the product hasn’t really released yet right? I agree about there being numerous napkin patches but the selling point is the game used/game dated aspect of the patch. Anything numbered to 25 or less that I’ve seen has been a cooler looking patch. Nothing that I’ve seen has deterred me from opening/buying this product, in fact all they’ve done is announced that there are also 2 Logoman patches in the product that weren’t previously announced. I don’t necessarily know if sealed prices are going to skyrocket to 15-20k immediately tomorrow but there will be plenty of ppl who try for an EQL box that won’t get one. At that point they will have to pay the small premium and then we’ll see if prices move at all. Should be fun to track!

[Mattsurewood]

Originally Posted by GuacamoleCards

Well, I convinced myself that there would be more hype and that frankly the product would be better. Granted, the pre-release photos were of the hits, but based on those I thought we'd see better than napkin patches. You'd think they'd have enough game-worn material than to do better than that.

I genuinely thought this would sell out instantly and we'd see boxes trading at 15-20k shortly after release. Looks like I may have been dead wrong on that. Costly mistake, but lesson learned I guess.

If the 2 recently announced logo man autos don't surface (I assume Backyard/Layton/Blez will pull them tomorrow), then these boxes could see a price uptick. But I'm thinking a breaker will land those. We will see.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GuacamoleCards

Well, I convinced myself that there would be more hype and that frankly the product would be better. Granted, the pre-release photos were of the hits, but based on those I thought we'd see better than napkin patches. You'd think they'd have enough game-worn material than to do better than that.

I genuinely thought this would sell out instantly and we'd see boxes trading at 15-20k shortly after release. Looks like I may have been dead wrong on that. Costly mistake, but lesson learned I guess.

I understand you on the hype. No one has really paid big money for high end unlicensed cards. I don't think there has ever been an unlicensed card that sold for over $100k. Then the fake $1 million offer on the Wemby Superfractor came out and all that Topps Chrome junk skyrocketed. I guess all it takes is one of these guys to make another fake bounty offer that after the card is pulled never gets paid out. That way Mercury will jump.

Alot of what I get hurt on I look at as a collector. It's still hard to sometimes accept that almost no one collects now. From 5 years ago it's gone from 95-98% collector to 95-98% investor. If I miss out on Mercury it will be because Im looking at it from the collecting standpoint. Until 23-24 Topps Chrome unlicensed has never sold high. $8k-$10k for 1 single box of 8 unlicensed cards and only 2 autographs is insane from a collecting standpoint. I guess we will see over the next several months if it matters or not.

[StevieScheffler]

Originally Posted by StevieScheffler

The two autos are worth ~$1k each for now. The base cards are really hard to say, I mean $200 for unnummbered and $600 for the numbered ones? So maybe $4800 total? That's being real generous with the base cards which could also be worth a bit less?

I didn't love the design to begin with and I still don't, except for a handful of cool inserts and the RPAs. Also, being a brand new product with no complete picture checklist, nobody knows right away which cards will be the popular ones and which will be the rarer ones.

All that said, the initial eBay prices for the cards are in line with what I thought. /99 auto going for $1k easily, /99 RPAs going for at least $2k (if not $3k) easily, base cards $100-$200, numbered inserts $400-$600. So worst case is around $4800 total with a shot of breaking even if you get a good auto/RPA. And better than break even if you get a great auto/RPA/dual. Not the best, certainly not the worst, and nothing else has a Wemby RPA and nothing else possibly will.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by nextlevel10

You are aware the product hasn’t really released yet right? I agree about there being numerous napkin patches but the selling point is the game used/game dated aspect of the patch. Anything numbered to 25 or less that I’ve seen has been a cooler looking patch. Nothing that I’ve seen has deterred me from opening/buying this product, in fact all they’ve done is announced that there are also 2 Logoman patches in the product that weren’t previously announced. I don’t necessarily know if sealed prices are going to skyrocket to 15-20k immediately tomorrow but there will be plenty of ppl who try for an EQL box that won’t get one. At that point they will have to pay the small premium and then we’ll see if prices move at all. Should be fun to track!

The game used game dated matters to a collector. The vast majority of these cards will be sold to investors.

It depends how many boxes are available tomorrow and if the limit is 1. I can't imagine many buying from Topps tomorrow will be buying if they are not opening the product. Are 1000-2500 people going to spend with tax around $8500 tomorrow to open up a box? If you want to buy it to sell breaks, hold, or open you can get it for around the same price unless you avoid tax through EQL. Bots don't want it as it has no immediate resale value. Look at what happens on items on Topps website that the bots don't want. If bots don't want it and it's not super limited everyone has time to buy. See logofrator. Someone actually thought that would sell out in minutes.

[DJP73]

To much scared money here. I bought 2 boxes at 9,200 and will keep them sealed for awhile. I think we will all be fine , but its not something you can flip next day. Just wait till one of the big hits come out people will singing a different toon. i'm steal in the belief the RPA will be his best card to own, Time will tell

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by DJP73

To much scared money here. I bought 2 boxes at 9,200 and will keep them sealed for awhile. I think we will all be fine , but its not something you can flip next day. Just wait till one of the big hits come out people will singing a different toon. i'm steal in the belief the RPA will be his best card to own, Time will tell

I don't think this is a product that will or really can absolutely tank. But if your plan was to keep sealed you could have waited until today and saved a bunch of money. You did seem to pay way less than most that bought at resale. Pretty much everyone else was $9,500-$10,000 a box. My thing was just if you see a presale or initial site listed price from BO and friends, I don't see why anyone would purchase at that price. Unless it's MSRP, you can ALWAYS find it cheaper somewhere else.

[StevieScheffler]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

From 5 years ago it's gone from 95-98% collector to 95-98% investor.

1. Agreed, and imo investors' #1 thing is price. Price high = good card. Licensed or not is concern of collectors and those who've been in the hobby longer. (Speaking as somebody who's been collecting for 30+ years and never bought unlicensed until Wemby).

2. The unlicensed Wemby are also collectable because they're the only place for things investors and collectors both like: autos, game worn. These are also traditionally the most valuable cards of any given year.

3. The unlicensed company we're talking about is Topps. And they're even getting the license back soon.

None of this is to convince anybody to spend $$$ on unlicensed cards. There's plenty of licensed trash to buy as well. I'm just putting out there why it's extremely unlikely imo that a year from now, when ESPN has endless debates about why Wemby is already a Top 5 player/MVP candidate, that investors will suddenly decide to sell all their unlicesed Wemby RC autos and RPAs for pennies to buy Prizm Silvers because Prizm is licensed.

All of this junk will rise or drop in value together, and if anything the autos and RPAs will outpace the licensed products because uniqueness/high prices > license for the investors out there.

[Jwax13]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

I understand you on the hype. No one has really paid big money for high end unlicensed cards. I don't think there has ever been an unlicensed card that sold for over $100k. Then the fake $1 million offer on the Wemby Superfractor came out and all that Topps Chrome junk skyrocketed

Fake?

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Jwax13

Fake?

Has the Wembanyama $1 million bounty been paid? Not that I'm aware of. Have any of the countless bounties of 6 or 7 figures only being made to drive up break and wax costs ever been paid out? Not that I'm aware of.

[Jwax13]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Has the Wembanyama $1 million bounty been paid? Not that I'm aware of. Have any of the countless bounties of 6 or 7 figures only being made to drive up break and wax costs ever been paid out? Not that I'm aware of.

I know Jared made the offer. I don’t believe it was accepted. Calling him a liar with no evidence is… something.

[netmasters]

I’m guessing the same thing will happen with this that happens with other high end limited boxes. BO will put a buy bounty price of 9500+ and people will sell to take the guaranteed $1k. Othe big distros will follow suit and majority will be in the hands of a few who can price control. Then they will up the price to $12k+. It’s a tale as old as time.

[RKH916]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

I understand you on the hype. No one has really paid big money for high end unlicensed cards. I don't think there has ever been an unlicensed card that sold for over $100k. Then the fake $1 million offer on the Wemby Superfractor came out and all that Topps Chrome junk skyrocketed. I guess all it takes is one of these guys to make another fake bounty offer that after the card is pulled never gets paid out. That way Mercury will jump.

Alot of what I get hurt on I look at as a collector. It's still hard to sometimes accept that almost no one collects now. From 5 years ago it's gone from 95-98% collector to 95-98% investor. If I miss out on Mercury it will be because Im looking at it from the collecting standpoint. Until 23-24 Topps Chrome unlicensed has never sold high. $8k-$10k for 1 single box of 8 unlicensed cards and only 2 autographs is insane from a collecting standpoint. I guess we will see over the next several months if it matters or not.

The bubble will pop at some point during Fanatics/Topps' reign, IMO. They're going all in on pop-cultcha'ing the f*ck out of the hobby, making it celebrity orientated, etc., to the point that all of management will have lost touch with the essence of collecting. And frankly, for as bad as Panini can be and has been, Topps' products are just overwhelmingly lackluster. And I envision them getting worse as the celeb/fam/money aspect takes precedent.

Eventually, the flipper ("investor") generation will realise that outside of the 1%, you can't make a genuine living out of sports cards if you don't already have money backing you. At this point, I expect that large numbers of the 99% of "investors" (see: flippers) will drop out, bursting the bubble to some extent.

The market is built on the common-man. As it becomes increasingly breaker-dependent, the customer base will at some point begin to shrink. It has to. This current experiment is finite, and the big players know it, but the cow still has milk...

With that said, financial irresponsibility and human stupidity is boundless, so maybe the cow will never dry up.

If Wemby snaps a leg next year, we might start to find out sooner rather than later, given that there will be no next speculation-chase until Cooper Flagg.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by netmasters

I’m guessing the same thing will happen with this that happens with other high end limited boxes. BO will put a buy bounty price of 9500+ and people will sell to take the guaranteed $1k. Othe big distros will follow suit and majority will be in the hands of a few who can price control. Then they will up the price to $12k+. It’s a tale as old as time.

Current BO offer is $7200. That's assuming they honor that offer and you sell on that service. I can tell you first hand recently, if you contact them directly they will offer less. BO still buys from average joe seller but my guess is a fraction as much as they used to. They took down all their buy offers on their webpage forever ago. BO was buying more from average joe seller any month May 2020 through the end of 2021 than 2023 and 2024 combined.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Jwax13

I know Jared made the offer. I don’t believe it was accepted. Calling him a liar with no evidence is… something.

Im not talking about just 1 card. Im talking about all the 6 or 7 figure offers on all those big cards over the last 4 years. How many have been made? More than I can count. How many of those have actually been paid out? I couldn't tell you a single one. Ask your good friend Jared. Maybe he could enlighten us to those big bounties made to drive up product breaks that have been paid out.

How many Wembanyama cards have sold for over $100k? Probably not as many as you think. Pretty sure he's had 1 card sell for over $500k and it was barely more. Thats in well over a year. I think the Prizm Black 1/1 and Deca Black 1/1 would sell for more. I can't see how someone is turning down $1 million for an unlicensed sticker auto. That offer may be 10 times what any unlicensed card has ever sold for. But what do I know.

What's even more hilarious is when they have the stipulations that it has to be pulled in x amount of time, has to be in perfect condition, or from a product you bought from them. Didn't the guy offering the top price on Topps Now triple auto say it was for his pc? Then shortly after said it had to be sold to him by x date. If you want a 1/1 card for your pc, why would it matter if its sold to you in October or December if the price is the same?

[Jwax13]

I don’t know the guy (or you) but as someone that’s played poker for decades, I’d probably pump the breaks on calling Jared Bleznick a liar with zero evidence.

Usually when guys are scum bags in that high profile of a spot, the stories are endless.

[Brazenways]

Originally Posted by StevieScheffler

I didn't love the design to begin with and I still don't, except for a handful of cool inserts and the RPAs. Also, being a brand new product with no complete picture checklist, nobody knows right away which cards will be the popular ones and which will be the rarer ones.

All that said, the initial eBay prices for the cards are in line with what I thought. /99 auto going for $1k easily, /99 RPAs going for at least $2k (if not $3k) easily, base cards $100-$200, numbered inserts $400-$600. So worst case is around $4800 total with a shot of breaking even if you get a good auto/RPA. And better than break even if you get a great auto/RPA/dual. Not the best, certainly not the worst, and nothing else has a Wemby RPA and nothing else possibly will.

Topps Dynasty is still pending but expect it to have a higher ceiling. Also, none of these topps products are true RPAs given they are all technically an insert.

[Moss84istheGOAT]

The dumbest product of the season in any sport, and watching these breakers with ooooooh, wow, a Wemby base, encased, thats a monster, what a joke!!