Topps Mercury: Victor Wembanyama

[RKH916]

Geoff just posted a thread on Instagram indicating that he dropped $364k on what looks like 30 boxes that are visible in the video. That's an avg 12.1k/box. He said none were purchased directly, all from other card shops.

Looks like he plans to rip 16, and sell the rest, and see if he can turn a profit.

Ridiculous, but I'm glad somebody has the money and balls to run this kind of experiment.

[ohio_mba]

Originally Posted by RKH916

Geoff just posted a thread on Instagram indicating that he dropped $364k on what looks like 30 boxes that are visible in the video. That's an avg 12.1k/box. He said none were purchased directly, all from other card shops.

Looks like he plans to rip 16, and sell the rest, and see if he can turn a profit.

Ridiculous, but I'm glad somebody has the money and balls to run this kind of experiment.

We knew this was going to happen when he made a video talking about how underpriced $8k is for these boxes. He even went as far to say they could be worth maybe $20k.

Geoff is a pump and dumper just like every other sleazy influencer and big breaker.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by RKH916

Geoff just posted a thread on Instagram indicating that he dropped $364k on what looks like 30 boxes that are visible in the video. That's an avg 12.1k/box. He said none were purchased directly, all from other card shops.

Looks like he plans to rip 16, and sell the rest, and see if he can turn a profit.

Ridiculous, but I'm glad somebody has the money and balls to run this kind of experiment.

Explain why you are glad.

Please also consider that Geoff and Fanatics are joined at the hip. You should treat this as legitimate as Drake buying wax was.

[RKH916]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Explain why you are glad.

With out without him doing this, the hobby is on a downward spiral either way. At least we get an experiment out of it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely not glad that we're in this position in the first place.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by RKH916

With out without him doing this, the hobby is on a downward spiral either way. At least we get an experiment out of it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely not glad that we're in this position in the first place.

What does the experiment prove? The sample size is too small.

But hey, Geoff and Fanatics succeeded in drawing even more attention to this abomination.

[RKH916]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

What does the experiment prove? The sample size is too small.

He's got 1% of the total product. Perhaps not fully representative, especially long term, but it'll be somewhat telling. If the numbers are right (I'm taking his 364k number with a grain of salt tbh) he's already paid a 66% premium.

If he can make money on a bad financial decision like this (again... if you believe his 364k claim) then there may be no end to just had bad it gets before Fanatics puts the last few nails in the coffin.

But hey, Geoff and Fanatics succeeded in drawing even more attention to this abomination.

We're in 100% agreement on it being an abomination.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by RKH916

He's got 1% of the total product. Perhaps not fully representative, especially long term, but it'll be somewhat telling. If the numbers are right (I'm taking his 364k number with a grain of salt tbh) he's already paid a 66% premium.

If he can make money on a bad financial decision like this (again... if you believe his 364k claim) then there may be no end to just had bad it gets before Fanatics puts the last few nails in the coffin.



We're in 100% agreement on it being an abomination.

Did he make money on the Ridder 1/1?

[Rbradleigh]

Originally Posted by GuacamoleCards

There is another confirmed at $12,000 - which is odd considering there are plenty available for under $10k.

A few true auctions up as well that I'll be watching closely.

Hmm, well if the $10k get snatched up & ripped that starts or does then make the $12k listing that more attractive. I’m guessing the 12 lister doesn’t expect someone to magically scoop up his box prior to 10 availability.

[GuacamoleCards]

Originally Posted by Rbradleigh

Hmm, well if the $10k get snatched up & ripped that starts or does then make the $12k listing that more attractive. I’m guessing the 12 lister doesn’t expect someone to magically scoop up his box prior to 10 availability.

The $12k is a confirmed sale. I chalk it up to what is likely an inexperienced buyer just snatching up the first listing they saw.

The first true auction I'm aware of just ended at $10,100.

[Amigo123]

i have 1-2 i may want to let go soon at cost if anyone is interested

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by RKH916

If he can make money on a bad financial decision like this (again... if you believe his 364k claim) then there may be no end to just had bad it gets before Fanatics puts the last few nails in the coffin.

Nothing changes regardless of his outcome. People are gambling on the “life-changing” money they could net after a product hit. Same as it’s been for the last few years. Fanatics is selling people on a disastrous form of gambling, and there are plenty of degenerates out there to eat it up. They’ll hit a $250k card, pay the 40% state and federal taxes they owe, and then piss away the remaining $150k on more wax.

[Jwax13]

Originally Posted by Amigo123

i have 1-2 i may want to let go soon at cost if anyone is interested

What’s cost?

[nickha2]

At this point I would say the only way to make money on this is to hold and pray the Lebron dual auto doesn’t get pulled until after you sell. The only card holding any significant value is the patch auto. The blue autos /75 are $2000 obo on eBay. The gold and orange inserts /25 and /50 are $1500 or less. Group breaking is really the only way 1 person can win. Given the amount of autos in this product at 2 per box x 3000 boxes is 6,000 autos in an unlicensed uniform. You are going to be able to scoop up an auto for $1000 in about two weeks. Absolutely brutal for 10k

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by nickha2

At this point I would say the only way to make money on this is to hold and pray the Lebron dual auto doesn’t get pulled until after you sell. The only card holding any significant value is the patch auto. The blue autos /75 are $2000 obo on eBay. The gold and orange inserts /25 and /50 are $1500 or less. Group breaking is really the only way 1 person can win. Given the amount of autos in this product at 2 per box x 3000 boxes is 6,000 autos in an unlicensed uniform. You are going to be able to scoop up an auto for $1000 in about two weeks. Absolutely brutal for 10k

Yikes.

[tmar214]

The first auctions are ending. /75 auto did 1575 and the first rpa /99 sold for 2350. Topps chrome autos of wemby are down over 50% from the first sales. It will be interesting to see where these end up. I still think the chase is huge but the floor is likely to settle at a relatively low level return if these are the early sales and people are expecting boxes to continue to appreciate.

[nickha2]

Originally Posted by tmar214

The first auctions are ending. /75 auto did 1575 and the first rpa /99 sold for 2350. Topps chrome autos of wemby are down over 50% from the first sales. It will be interesting to see where these end up. I still think the chase is huge but the floor is likely to settle at a relatively low level return if these are the early sales and people are expecting boxes to continue to appreciate.

The floor when it’s all said and done will most likely be 4 to 5k. As I stated above the only way to make money on this outside hitting a lottery ticket card is to hold and hope the Lebron dual /5 and /1 don’t surface and product drys up. This will increase box prices if the lebrons have not been pulled. Gamblers will be willing to pay increased pricing if they believe the pool is shrinking and odds are getting better of hitting the logoman or Lebron /5 and /1

[StevieScheffler]

Originally Posted by tmar214

The first auctions are ending. /75 auto did 1575 and the first rpa /99 sold for 2350.

The 2350 was a weird relist and a 3 day auction, so hopefully that's not what the first few 7 day auctions will end at.

[nextlevel10]

Originally Posted by StevieScheffler

The 2350 was a weird relist and a 3 day auction, so hopefully that's not what the first few 7 day auctions will end at.

The 2350 also didn’t have the word “patch” or “RPA” anywhere in the listing. I had to broaden my search to find the sale. If these people who win these cards in breaks keep throwing up terrible listings there will be some deals to be had.

[90skid]

Originally Posted by tmar214

The first auctions are ending. /75 auto did 1575 and the first rpa /99 sold for 2350. Topps chrome autos of wemby are down over 50% from the first sales. It will be interesting to see where these end up.

Yeah just wait until 2 weeks into the regular season when wemby rolls an ankle and he's on IR. Just sayin'.

[StevieScheffler]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

You cherry picked the one Topps Now card that isn't down year over year. Im pretty sure it is down this year. The Bowman U card is licensed. The Bowman U has gone up the most from the ones you showed.

You weren't the one saying the RPAs are bad. I apologize if it sounded like I was directing that at you.

And to your point, the Topps Now 1000th Auto /99 sold for $1700-$2026 raw in May 2024. The last raw comp (no inscription) was Aug 23rd at $2000 even.

The fact that it fell from $3k on day one to $2k or even $1.5k now doesn't mean it's not holding it's value (because it's unlicensed).

The first Prizm blue /199 raw sold for March 6th for $3900. It's fallen to around $2k since, similar % to Topps Now autos.

The unlicesed autos and likely RPAs are doing just fine. But it is interesting too to imagine a scenario where Topps gets in a time machine and releases licensed rookie autos 2 years from now. Or in the near future Dynasty further diluting the # of autos available.

[StevieScheffler]

Originally Posted by 90skid

Yeah just wait until 2 weeks into the regular season when wemby rolls an ankle and he's on IR. Just sayin'.

If he gets a season ending but non career threatening injury, I'll probably buy everything I can in sight. I made the mistake of not doing that when Ohtani was out for a year early on and look at where we are now.

[crdbored]

Well the first couple mid-week auctions ended on eBay and they aren't looking good for the base chrome parallels. Maybe a weekend ending auction could've gained more bidders.

Multiple Refractors /99 ended sub $200. Lowest was $167 highest was $217.

French /45 ended $255

Then two White Refractors /35. One ended at $495 and the other at $405.

The image choice likely contributed to the price difference. Man, break prices are already brutal and if prices continue this way the break prices look more ridiculous.

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by nickha2

At this point I would say the only way to make money on this is to hold and pray the Lebron dual auto doesn’t get pulled until after you sell. The only card holding any significant value is the patch auto. The blue autos /75 are $2000 obo on eBay. The gold and orange inserts /25 and /50 are $1500 or less. Group breaking is really the only way 1 person can win. Given the amount of autos in this product at 2 per box x 3000 boxes is 6,000 autos in an unlicensed uniform. You are going to be able to scoop up an auto for $1000 in about two weeks. Absolutely brutal for 10k

[90skid]

Originally Posted by crdbored

Man, break prices are already brutal and if prices continue this way the break prices look more ridiculous.

DCSports just listed like 40 of these cards 0.99 all to end Sunday night at the same time. Wemby Flood Fest!

[evshingles]

Originally Posted by crdbored

Well the first couple mid-week auctions ended on eBay and they aren't looking good for the base chrome parallels. Maybe a weekend ending auction could've gained more bidders.

Multiple Refractors /99 ended sub $200. Lowest was $167 highest was $217.

French /45 ended $255

Then two White Refractors /35. One ended at $495 and the other at $405.

The image choice likely contributed to the price difference. Man, break prices are already brutal and if prices continue this way the break prices look more ridiculous.

4 of the cards you mentioned were mine and i'm not complaining...