Brock Purdy the newest QB hype

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by Boo

It is the answer but teams for some reason 💩 themselves to overpay QBs. I said it before, I’d draft a QB every year in the third or fourth round and let them walk after the rookie contract was up (unless they are a superstar no doubt top 5 QB).

This is why you are a BO poster and not a GM.

Not that you are successful at the former.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

This is why you are a BO poster and not a GM.

Not that you are successful at the former.

No kidding. You won't find starters in the 3rd round and 4th round. Almost every starter in the league is a first round pick. Not to mention you will be wasting spots to get really good players from other positions. Ones that would stick around and play every week.

I do think if 49ers let him test the market, some team will give him an offer. Maybe a team will play chicken a bit in hopes that the 49ers would match.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

No kidding. You won't find starters in the 3rd round and 4th round. Almost every starter in the league is a first round pick. Not to mention you will be wasting spots to get really good players from other positions. Ones that would stick around and play every week.

I do think if 49ers let him test the market, some team will give him an offer. Maybe a team will play chicken a bit in hopes that the 49ers would match.

This is a no brainer. People are acting like he’s Daniel Jones. He’s a top 10 NFL QB. He’s proven he’s a franchise QB. Pay him.

[49erRCCollector]

Bottom line? He's had one full, good year.

And this year is not helping his market.

The 49ers know this.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

This is a no brainer. People are acting like he’s Daniel Jones. He’s a top 10 NFL QB. He’s proven he’s a franchise QB. Pay him.

Thats the argument. When he was playing a full season under Shanahan, Jimmy G was Top 10 too. He was banging out almost 4,000 yards with like 25 TDs.

In 2022, before he went down and Purdy got his chance. Jimmy G in 10 games had 2500 yards, 16 TDs to 4 INT and a rating of 103.

Take away that O-Line, those receivers and that system. Jimmy G sucked as a Raider. And is now bringing Gatorade to Stafford in LA

Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard, Trey Lance ETC all looked competent in that system.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by Boo

It is the answer but teams for some reason 💩 themselves to overpay QBs. I said it before, I’d draft a QB every year in the third or fourth round and let them walk after the rookie contract was up (unless they are a superstar no doubt top 5 QB).

How's a 3rd or 4th rounder going to get half a season minimum of playing time just to find out if he's a superstar? Are teams going to be willing to sacrifice a season just to find out on a late rounder? Probably not. On a 1st rounder? Yes they do all the time.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

Bottom line? He's had one full, good year.

And this year is not helping his market.

The 49ers know this.

Agree somewhat. But he's had more than just a good year. As you well know the first half season he took the league by storm out of nowhere. He followed that up with a MVP caliber regular season followed by a playoff run where he led an incredible comeback with the probability of victory less than 5%, and two other very close and memorable games to finish ending in heartbreak. Other than the greatest QB of all time, it's the most amazing out of nowhere beginning to a career ever, maybe in any American sport.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

Bottom line? He's had one full, good year.

And this year is not helping his market.

The 49ers know this.

I haven’t followed along this entire time, so what am I missing? Are you arguing he doesn’t deserve franchise QB money?

I guess I don’t see the argument. He already set his market.

[emlowe]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

No kidding. You won't find starters in the 3rd round and 4th round. Almost every starter in the league is a first round pick.

There are only 4 starters not 1st or 2nd round picks: Purdy, Wilson, Cousins, Dak (ok I know he is hurt). (and I ignore the raiders, they don't count playing backups as starters)

The large majority are first-rounders. Usually because when you don't have a QB, your team sucks and so you have to take one and since you took one in the first round you have to play them. and when they suck you rinse and repeat. This is how badly run teams work, like the Browns and Jets.

[emlowe]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

I haven’t followed along this entire time, so what am I missing? Are you arguing he doesn’t deserve franchise QB money?

I guess I don’t see the argument. He already set his market.

The argument is that he is under contract for next year and in 2026 you could in theory tag him

So do you sign him to 50+ million which is what I think it will take, or hard-ball him into playing 2025 on the cheap and 2026 on the tag.

I'm pretty sure they do a deal over 50+ - probably slightly more than Jordan Love, but maybe less than Dak.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Ewww..

Pacer go from 2nd place in the NBA cup last year to 2nd worst in the NBA Cup this year. 0-4 with -60 scoring. Yikes

Either a bad joke or you've had too much eggnog sir

[emlowe]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

Bottom line? He's had one full, good year.

And this year is not helping his market.

The 49ers know this.

I'm going to disagree a smidge. Yes, Purdy is having a down year, but his numbers this year compare pretty well to Jordon Love, Jalen Hurts, Tua.

He has more yards than Josh Allen in 1 less game.

Sure, stats only tell a small part of the story. At the critical moments things have gone sideways and the red zone offense has been terrible. So yeah, it's a down year, but his comparables with other 50+ million QBs is still there.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by emlowe

The argument is that he is under contract for next year and in 2026 you could in theory tag him

So do you sign him to 50+ million which is what I think it will take, or hard-ball him into playing 2025 on the cheap and 2026 on the tag.

I'm pretty sure they do a deal over 50+ - probably slightly more than Jordan Love, but maybe less than Dak.

Purdy has leverage as does the team.

They want him cheap, he wants more earlier. He’s a franchise QB that would have teams bidding for him on the open market. They have presumably 3 years of control at rapidly escalating cost.

If I’m him, I want their best offer and if it’s not near the market just tell them you’ll pull a Kirk and keeps signing the franchise tags. I’m sure him and the team will work out a fair deal.

[JWBlue]

Franchise tag makes sense here.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by emlowe

I'm going to disagree a smidge. Yes, Purdy is having a down year, but his numbers this year compare pretty well to Jordon Love, Jalen Hurts, Tua.

He has more yards than Josh Allen in 1 less game.

Sure, stats only tell a small part of the story. At the critical moments things have gone sideways and the red zone offense has been terrible. So yeah, it's a down year, but his comparables with other 50+ million QBs is still there.

That's fair. But let's say you are appointed GM of the Niners today.

You know what physical tools you see in Hurts and Love.

You also see Tua, and what his contract means for the Dolphins + injury history.

Are you paying Purdy like Love/Hurts. Not hypothetical. Are YOU committing those dollars to Purdy based on what you know - not the market - but what you see, and what's best for the team?

[Scottish Punk]

You could do a 5 year with a 3rd year parachute. Purdy gets more money the next 3 years and some stability. He plays well and he gets locked in for two more years. 49ers can have an out after year 3 everything falls apart. Most of the big contracts fall off that time frame anyways. Would be time for a complete rebuild.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

This is a no brainer. People are acting like he’s Daniel Jones. He’s a top 10 NFL QB. He’s proven he’s a franchise QB. Pay him.

Top 10 is a stretch, I'd say he's about average so Top 16

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by emlowe

I'm going to disagree a smidge. Yes, Purdy is having a down year, but his numbers this year compare pretty well to Jordon Love, Jalen Hurts, Tua.

He has more yards than Josh Allen in 1 less game.

Sure, stats only tell a small part of the story. At the critical moments things have gone sideways and the red zone offense has been terrible. So yeah, it's a down year, but his comparables with other 50+ million QBs is still there.

People keep comparing Allen stats this year when Bills have a ton of blowouts and he sit in the fourth, is he supposed to statpad those games?

[asujbl]

I’m sure excited to see what contract he gets… whenever he gets it

[emlowe]

Yea, if I were the GM, I would sign him for that kind of money—that is the going rate. And alternatives are not very appealing. Practically anyone who can take a snap and remotely read a defense is getting 50+ million.

The last young QB to sign for less than 50 was Kyler Murray in 2022 for 46 and Mahomes in 2020 for 45

If he insisted on being the highest paid, I might have an issue, although in the end what is the difference between 55 million and say 61?

Love's deal was 4 yrs with a 3rd yr out (51 million in dead cap)
Hurts was 5 yrs.
Lawrence was 5 yrs
Tua was 4 with 3rd yr out (34 dead cap)
Goff was 4yrs

4-5 yrs has been the norm for sure.


(shout out to Trey Lance who parlayed one good covid year into 34 million, including getting paid 5.3 million this year)

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Either a bad joke or you've had too much eggnog sir

Nasty cold and inner ear infection. I'm just glad I spelled several words right.


Man, I'd hate to see what that latest forecast I put out at work today looks like

[Delta5]

Another thing to consider is that 49ers SB window is pretty much closed.
Trent Williams getting very old for his position
CMC is old for a RB and plus injury prone
Kittle is old for a TE
Deebo is injury prone

Does it make sense to pay Purdy 50m when he might need to do exactly what he did this season? Playing through some key position injuries? He's good when the avengers played but when one or few of them are injured he can't carry the game. I'd say let him walk and start rebuild but I've seen GM refusing to acknowledge this and just sign for max. We'll see

[Floridacardguy]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Another thing to consider is that 49ers SB window is pretty much closed.
Trent Williams getting very old for his position
CMC is old for a RB and plus injury prone
Kittle is old for a TE
Deebo is injury prone

Does it make sense to pay Purdy 50m when he might need to do exactly what he did this season? Playing through some key position injuries? He's good when the avengers played but when one or few of them are injured he can't carry the game. I'd say let him walk and start rebuild but I've seen GM refusing to acknowledge this and just sign for max. We'll see

What's the alternative? Draft a guy you need to develop who may bust out? Sign a free agent who won't be better than Purdy?

If Purdy was to leave, where would he be a good fit? I was thinking about the Jets. That could be a good one, they mirror 49ers to some degree. Great D, couple receiving weapons, and a good RB.

I would consider Purdy an upgrade immediately over Rodgers. He has weapons, and they will play defense. Could be a nice transition

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Another thing to consider is that 49ers SB window is pretty much closed.
Trent Williams getting very old for his position
CMC is old for a RB and plus injury prone
Kittle is old for a TE
Deebo is injury prone

Does it make sense to pay Purdy 50m when he might need to do exactly what he did this season? Playing through some key position injuries? He's good when the avengers played but when one or few of them are injured he can't carry the game. I'd say let him walk and start rebuild but I've seen GM refusing to acknowledge this and just sign for max. We'll see

This was more than playing through some key position injuries.

CMC out, effectively, all year.
Mason out through end of year.
Aiyuk (WR1) most of the year.
Deebo got hospitalized with Pneumonia in October.
Hufanga out.
Warner, fractured ankle.
Greenlaw out since SB injury.
Hargrave out.
1st round draft pick SHOT before season.
CB 1 C. Ward out for a stretch after losing daughter.
Williams out a few games, now may miss time with loss of infant daughter.
Bosa injured, now missing time.
Kicker AND punter missed/missing time.

I know it's next man up but there are VERY few teams that can still win with an injuries like this.

Maybe Purdy got too much credit playing with "The Avengers" but they are more like The Avengers after Thanos did the snap right now... a bunch of cast-offs, rookies and beat up players right now. It's Kittle and Jennings with Puni a bright spot on the O Line. And the D is playing OK inspire of inconsistency and injury.

[Floridacardguy]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

This was more than playing through some key position injuries.

CMC out, effectively, all year.
Mason out through end of year.
Aiyuk (WR1) most of the year.
Deebo got hospitalized with Pneumonia in October.
Hufanga out.
Warner, fractured ankle.
Greenlaw out since SB injury.
Hargrave out.
1st round draft pick SHOT before season.
CB 1 C. Ward out for a stretch after losing daughter.
Williams out a few games, now may miss time with loss of infant daughter.
Bosa injured, now missing time.
Kicker AND punter missed/missing time.

I know it's next man up but there are VERY few teams that can still win with an injuries like this.

Maybe Purdy got too much credit playing with "The Avengers" but they are more like The Avengers after Thanos did the snap right now... a bunch of cast-offs, rookies and beat up players right now. It's Kittle and Jennings with Puni a bright spot on the O Line. And the D is playing OK inspire of inconsistency and injury.

Yeah no team does as good without their opening day starters.
Even the Chiefs have gone thru a similar situation.